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If you've already read the 2022 All-Sleeper Team, prepare for the flip side. These players are top choices to disappoint at their current ADP.
Busts aren't as fun to read about as sleepers but it's just as important to know who not to draft. It's a bit harder to define what constitutes a bust as opposed to a sleeper. Is it someone who totally crashes and burns, becoming unstartable by midseason? Do injured players count as busts? Is simply failing to live up to ADP enough?
My criteria for selection will be as follows: QBs from the top-20 ADP at their position, RBs within the top 30, WRs inside the top 40, and top-15 TEs according to current industry consensus. I believe these players will fall well short of return on investment. You won't find any of these players on my fantasy teams in 2022.
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Running Back Busts for Fantasy Football
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
There are still plenty of CEH truthers around, even in the face of the Isaih Pacheco hype train gaining full steam. We now know that Ronald Jones has made the final roster along with Jerick McKinnon. One is good on early downs but not as a receiver (Jones) and the other (Jet) is better as a pass-catcher than a halfback. Edwards-Helaire is kind of mediocre at both, grading out in the mid-60s as a runner and receiver according to PFF and placing 43rd overall among running backs.
He's not new to the system. He's not coming off a major injury. He hasn't been held back by a veteran taking away snaps. He's just... meh. The idea of rostering him solely for touchdown upside doesn't hold water either, as he's scored a total of 11 touchdowns in two seasons. That's the same as Latavius Murray. You can do better.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Too easy? You'd be surprised how ardent the Dobbins supporters out there are in defending him to the death. Dare to suggest that he won't be an elite fantasy RB this year and be prepared for the backlash!
I don't care that they signed Kenyan Drake – he just takes Tyler Badie's spot on the roster as emergency depth. I do care that Dobbins is not close to healthy and I definitely don't believe him when he claps back on Twitter to say that he wasn't limping off the practice field.
The argument in favor of Dobbins is that the first week doesn't matter, once he comes back he resumes the lead role in a run-heavy offense and will dominate as he did toward the end of his rookie season. Except he really didn't. In his final six games of 2020, Dobbins helped carry many fantasy teams through the playoffs but that's mainly because he scored a touchdown in each of those six games. His huge game came in Week 17 when most fantasy leagues were over; in the other five games, he averaged 67 rushing yards per game, never reaching even 80, and caught a total of three passes. If you want to count on goal-line carries for your starting RB, just take Damien Harris several rounds later.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
If I have Zamir White as one of my top RB sleepers, it logically follows that Jacobs will disappoint. I'm definitely not the only one who has Jacobs as a bust for various reasons. A new coaching staff usually has a different philosophy, intentionally so. In this case, it's Josh McDaniels from the Patriots' school of using as many running backs as possible based on different situations. Plus, considering how he entered the league, it's almost inevitable this is Jacobs' last dance as a Raider.
Raiders' 1st-round picks under Mayock/Gruden ('19-'21):
OT Alex Leatherwood - waived
WR Henry Ruggs III - waived
CB Damon Arnette - waived
DE Clelin Ferrell - option declined
RB Josh Jacobs - option declined
S Johnathan Abram - option declined https://t.co/MrTdLVIkCQ— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) August 30, 2022
Jacobs may still be the starter for now, but he's now joined Antonio Gibson and Miles Sanders in the dead zone as former RB1 types who might never quite live up to their potential as they cede work to other backs. Zamir White should take over the lead role late in the season when it matters most, leaving Jacobs as waiver-wire fodder.
Wide Receiver Busts for Fantasy Football
D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
It's hard to imagine Metcalf not letting fantasy managers down. The combo of Geno Smith and Drew Lock is going to make Seahawks fans nostalgic for the days of Matt Hasselbeck. Metcalf is a physical specimen but he's playing for a team that was 20th in pass-play percentage last year with Russell Wilson and now figures to scale down that number significantly. He'll still be the number one target in the red zone but if he catches anything less than the 75 receptions he had in 2021, he'll be hard-pressed to finish as a WR2 in full PPR leagues.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Through no fault of his own, Johnson is going to see his target total drop. Big Ben absolutely loved throwing his way, lifting him to a 28.4% target share in 2021 which was fifth-highest among all receivers. He could still serve as the leading receiver in Steel City but do we really think Mitch Trubisky can get the ball in his hands as frequently?
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Let me clarify that I don't care how "ready" he is to play in Week 1 or any time thereafter. Even if MT were 110% healthy for a full 17-game season, I'd still be fading him.
Thomas is a full three years removed from his outstanding season he enjoyed with Drew Brees at QB. This is a more diverse offense with a different signal-caller. Thomas could rise to the low-end WR2 but that's his ceiling.
Tight End Busts for Fantasy Football
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
Knox won't fall too far from his previous heights because they weren't all that high. He finished as the TE7 a year ago and doesn't really have more competition at his position or at wide receiver. The issue is that most of his production was tied to touchdowns; he was 15th in receiving yards and 18th in receptions among tight ends.
He's obviously in a high-scoring offense and it's not out of the question that he scores a similar number of touchdowns. I just wouldn't count on it, as we could just as easily see Gabe Davis emerge in the red zone. Knox is fine as a fallback option if you wait on TE but taking him any higher than TE10 is a mistake.
Quarterback Busts for Fantasy Football
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I realize this runs the risk of being cursed for the next 45 years because you don't just challenge the GOAT and get away with it scot-free. I could be wrong because Brady has clearly found a way to cheat Father Time and doesn't really care who is on the field – he'll still make the playoffs and lead the league in passer rating. But maybe, just maybe this year is different.
He's going to be without his favorite security blanket, Rob Gronkowski. Chris Godwin might not be himself all year even if he's out on the field in Week 1. There are suddenly concerns about the state of the offensive line with center Ryan Jensen lost for the season, which matters a lot to a pure pocket passer. And while the transition from Bruce Arians to Todd Bowles should be mostly seamless, they are moving from an offensive-minded coach to a defensive one. I won't even mention the Giselle situation...
Brady is a safe pick because he barely turns it over, keeps the chains moving, and plays for a good offense. My argument is that his ceiling will not be that of last year and his draft price will require him to deliver on that in order to be worth selecting.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
One of my bold predictions for 2022 is that Prescott fails to finish as a top-12 QB for fantasy purposes. That makes him a bust considering he's being drafted as the QB8.
Amari Cooper is gone, Michael Gallup isn't ready to play, Jalen Tolbert isn't ready for prime time, and left tackle Tyron Smith is possibly out for the season. This offense should take a natural step back from last year but it could struggle to generate points given the state of the roster.
One of the key points in my prediction is that he isn't a threat on the ground anymore, rushing for 146 yards and one touchdown last year. It used to be a big part of his game when he snuck in for six touchdowns on the ground in each of his first three seasons. Without that rushing floor, any loss in passing production could make a dent in his fantasy standing.
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