Top Draft Targets: 2021 RotoBaller Staff Picks

We've already dug into the top busts and avoids for 2021 fantasy football drafts according to the RotoBaller NFL staff. Now, we will focus on the top draft targets and ADP values for 2021 fantasy football.

Our analysts have agreed to sum up their thoughts on the top players to target in drafts based on low ADP, increased role, or other variables.

Here are the top players at each position that we recommend drafting.

Which RB is your favorite draft sleeper in 2021?

Michael Carter fell to the fourth round of April’s NFL draft because of his modest size, but the 5-foot-8, 201-pounder could flourish as a rookie for the Jets. The depth chart poses little competition for carries, and he is tailor-made for new offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur’s version of the Kyle Shanahan outside-zone scheme. Carter’s quickness, agility and pass-catching ability should enable the North Carolina product to shine brightest in PPR settings. Even in the likelihood that Carter ends up in some form of timeshare with veteran Tevin Coleman, he should see enough touches to more than justify his backup RB draft price. -Josh Friedman

Melvin Gordon. Look, I understand the Denver Broncos drafted Javonte Williams in the second round making Gordon's time/value in Denver apparently short-lived. But this is about now. The Broncos have utilized a running back by committee and with Williams, Royce Freeman and Mike Boone, 2021 looks to be no different. The upside is Gordon still produces fantasy-viable stats when on the field. In 2020, he played in 15 games, rushed for nine touchdowns, averaged 4.6 YPC, and was targeted 44 times for 32 receptions, 158 receiving yards and a TD. Gordon had a snap share of 64% and 986 rushing yards. His current ADP of 60 seems a tad low for a running back who is not only running for a contract but on a team with questionable quarterback play. He also comes into the season with the eighth-easiest schedule for running backs. -Gladys Louise Tyler

Trey Sermon because he fits the 49ers scheme well and the other RB's on the roster cannot stay healthy. If Sermon shows well during the preseason his ADP may surge if he carves out a significant role early. -Mike Riggall

Trey Sermon was my favorite rookie running back outside the consensus top three of Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams before the NFL Draft. He also became the beneficiary of a favorable situation when San Francisco traded up to select him during the draft process. The 6’0”, 200-pound Sermon is a physical back whose effectiveness as a one-cut runner should blend perfectly with Kyle Shanahan’s outside zone rushing scheme. He should elude the obstacles of a prospective committee and has a genuine opportunity to lead the 49ers in rushing. 29-year-old Raheem Mostert has a history of absence due to injuries, while Jeff Wilson will be sidelined until at least Week 8 following knee surgery. All of which makes Sermon a savvy selection at his ADP. -Phil Clark

Damien Harris has an excellent offensive line and the team seems to favor him over Sony Michel, who could be cut before the season. Unfortunately, he isn't a huge pass catcher, but he makes up for it with efficiency running the ball. If the team starts Mac Jones and goes to a more traditional run game this season, he could see his opportunities in the red zone grow massively too. -Dan Fornek

Kenyan Drake. The Raiders gave Drake a two-year deal with $11 million guaranteed. They did not have to do this. Clearly, they believe in Drake. Regardless of my opinion on Drake's talent (I think he's slightly above replacement-level), the Raiders did not pay Drake to be a backup. At a minimum, he will be active on passing downs because we know the Raiders have no interest in using Josh Jacobs in that role. Additionally, Jacobs is a replacement-level talent that could easily get outplayed by Drake to the point where Drake works this into a bit of a timeshare. Drake is currently being drafted as an RB4 and he has RB2 upside. -Jason Katz

Which WR is your favorite draft target in the mid-to-late rounds?

Elijah Moore became an intriguing prospect after he demonstrated his versatility, toughness and route running acumen at Ole Miss. He has emerged in a Jet offense that is undergoing a transformation. However, Moore is both physically and mentally capable of thriving as he operates at the NFL-level. His versatility also provides the Jets’ offensive decision-makers with the option of utilizing him both outside and in the slot. Zack Wilson, will be entrusted with spearheading New York’s reshaped passing attack, and will also distribute targets to Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, and Denzel Mims. But Moore’s playmaking ability will help him secure a consistent role, and he should assemble respectable numbers during his first season. -Phil Clark

Rashod Bateman. Bateman is going to end the season as the unquestioned WR1 in Baltimore when all is said and done this season. He can win against corners in the short and intermediate areas of the field and has surprisingly good speed to run after the catch. He attacks the football in the air and is going to have a huge impact day 1 for a team that sorely needs a WR1 to maximize Lamar Jackson's underrated passing ability. -Dan Fornek

It's hard to gauge what Jacksonville's offense will look like but Laviska Shenault Jr. could be in line to finish as the team's top receiver. He showed flashes in his rookie season but miserable quarterback play restricted him and the offense as a whole. With new franchise signal-caller Trevor Lawrence, Shenault can showcase the ability that made him a second-round pick a year ago. As far as competition, D.J. Chark has been drawing criticism from coach Urban Meyer all offseason and 31-year-old Marvin Jones has been declining in effectiveness the last couple of years, getting by on volume alone. Shenault will primarily man the slot so I not only expect him to be the WR1 for the Jags but a fantasy WR3 with top-25 upside if things break right. -Pierre Camus

Antonio Brown. This answer is probably cheating a bit because there is no chance Brown remains outside the top 40 come late August when most drafts are occurring. AB's target share once he returned was on par with Chris Godwin's and Mike Evans'. He's certainly the WR3 on the Bucs, but why is he being drafted like a WR4 in fantasy? AB's upside is that of a low WR1. All it would take is an injury to Evans or Godwin and for Tom Brady to commit to featuring AB like the elite receiver he still is. The only thing standing in front of AB being a league winner is volume. I'll take that shot. -Jason Katz

Even with the Darnell Mooney hype train in overdrive, the second-year Bears receiver is poised to return value. The sure-handed speedster is being drafted as a fifth-receiver type but with improved quarterbacking in Chicago could notch enough big plays to be at least a solid flex option. He flashed as a deep weapon and only dropped one pass last year, emerging as the Bears' second-best receiver while playing with Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles. This season he at least gets an immediate, modest upgrade to Andy Dalton and potentially a larger one whenever first-year QB Justin Fields takes over. -Josh Friedman

Amon-Ra St. Brown is my favorite sleeper. The Lions are shaky in wide receivers having lost both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. They will enter the season without Matthew Stafford opting instead for Jared Goff. Look for St. Brown to take over the role that Cooper Kupp occupied in the Los Angeles Rams offense with Goff, as the starting slot receiver in Detroit. With Goff's propensity to target the middle of the field averaging 6.3 air yards per attempt look for Brown to be leading the Lions in targets by season end. -Gladys Louise Tyler

Which TE outside the top 12 has the best chance to become a fantasy starter?

Adam Trautman was extremely efficient coming out of a small college (Go Flyers) his rookie season. New Orleans traded up to get him in 2020 and then didn't add any significant competition to him going into year 2. Either Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston can use him underneath on crossing or stick routes to move the chains or get quick touchdowns. With Michael Thomas out for several weeks to begin the season, Trautman can very easily establish himself as a top target in a high-octane passing offense. -Dan Fornek

There is uncertainty surrounding Sean Payton’s plan for the New Orleans offense as the Saints advance into the post-Drew Brees era. This includes the identity of the next starting signal-caller. But the departure of Jared Cook (60 targets/4.0 per game) should solidifyAdam Trautman's status as the team’s unquestioned TE1. He is also positioned to become the third option behind Michael Thomas (once he returns to the field) and Alvin Kamara, due to the exodus of Emmanuel Sanders, (82 targets/5.9 per game) and the underwhelming nature of New Orleans' other receiving weapons. This could elevate Trautman to the threshold of TE1 scoring for fantasy managers. -Phil Clark

The addition of Matthew Stafford and the subtraction of Gerald Everett adds up to all kinds of fantasy goodness for Tyler Higbee. When teammate Everett was sidelined or hobbled in late 2019, Higbee racked up 43 catches for 522 yards over a five-game stretch. True, he disappointed drafters in 2020, but with Everett now in Seattle, Higbee figures to earn a greater role in the Rams high-powered passing game. It doesn’t hurt that Stafford, rather than Jared Goff, will be leading that attack. -Josh Friedman

Tyler Higbee. To be fair, I don't love any of the TEs outside the top 12, but if you're asking who has the best shot at cracking that top 12, it's Higbee because at least we've seen him do it for a stretch in 2019. Higbee was a disappointment in 2020, but with a quarterback upgrade and Gerald Everett in Seattle, Higbee could finally be that every down TE fantasy managers were hoping they'd get in 2020. -Jason Katz

Gerald Everett. He no longer needs to compete with Tyler Higbee for snaps or targets and should have plenty of room to operate underneath with Locket and Metcalf on the outside commanding respect. -Mike Riggall

Count me among the Gerald Everett believers. He was drafted to be a pass-catching tight end and that's the role he will play in Seattle. This time, he won't be behind another player on the depth chart and has very little competition for targets either at tight end or wide receiver. The fact he's tied to an elite QB in Russell Wilson is the icing on the cake. -Pierre Camus

New England Patriots tight end Jonnu Smith is definitely a sleeper with a current ADP 128, TE1 is a huge jump for any tight end...but away we go. The Patriots have been known to highlight the tight end position (when the talent was there) and now they have the talent. Smith is 6'3" and 248 pounds who can not only catch but is top five in yards after catch. He finished in the top 12 last season although he never surpassed 65 targets (expect more targets this season). Add to this his 19.5% touchdown rate and the Patriots enter 2021 with the easiest schedule for tight ends and a jump into the top is not unreasonable. -Gladys Louise Tyler

Which late-round QB do you trust most as a fantasy starter in 2021?

Joe Burrow. Even if his knee impacts his ability to run early in the season he has so many weapons in the passing game there's no reason he shouldn't be a QB1. The Bengals defense still needs work as well which means Burrow will likely be throwing it a ton. -Mike Riggall

Baker Mayfield has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL heading into 2021 and two legitimate running backs that defenses have to focus on, which opens up Stefanski's play action passing attack. Mayfield threw for the fewest yards of his career last season(3,563), but still had 26 touchdowns (2nd highest in his career) and only eight interceptions (first time in his career under 14). His top-9 receivers return from last season and they added Anthony Schwartz in the third round to take the top off defenses and add another element to the offense. -Dan Fornek

Long-overdue continuity could pay off this season in Cleveland, especially for the team’s oft-maligned quarterback. Baker Mayfield won’t have a simple path to top-12 production in head coach Kevin Stefanski’s run-oriented offense, especially since he provides little with his own legs. Yet Mayfield, who showed steady improvement last year when guiding the Browns to a 6-2 record in the second half and their first playoff victory in decades, should make at least a viable streamer in his fourth season. The return of deep threat Odell Beckham Jr. could lead to an uptick in volume. -Josh Friedman

This depends on the scoring format for your league (every position does but this is more dependent). Give me Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay. Better offensive coaching, better receivers and a better defense will give Stafford's arm talent a chance to be even more fantasy relevant. Stafford finished as QB16 in 2020. That was with 26 passing touchdowns and 4084 passing yards, and his best receiver Kenny Golladay on the field for five games. Stafford is now gifted with a better offensive line (eighth-ranked per PFF), Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee and a better offensive-minded coach. Unless I can grab a true rushing quarterback (Stafford had 29 carries for 1.8 YPC in 2020), Stafford is a quarterback I feel confident in grabbing late and playing often. -Gladys Louise Tyler

If you choose to wait on quarterback, which I will do in nearly every draft this season, then you're either looking for a potential breakout candidate or a reliable high-floor passer. If you opt for the latter, Kirk Cousins fits the bill perfectly. He's not in a pass-first offense but he attempted 516 passes last year, good for 15th in the league. Despite having almost no rushing upside, he finished as the fantasy QB11, which makes him a starter in 12-team leagues at an ADP well outside the top 100. As far as riskier options, I'll bet on my man Tua Tagovailoa making a leap in his second season now that he has legit weapons around him. -Pierre Camus

Justin Fields. He's not going to start Week 1, but the clock is ticking on Andy Dalton. There is exactly a 0% chance Dalton makes it through the entire season as a starter (unless Fields were to get hurt). I would put the odds of Dalton starting in October at about 10%. Once Fields takes over, he is going to show two things: 1) His rushing ability, which will instantly make him fantasy relevant, and 2) That he should've been the QB2 behind Trevor Lawrence because he's also a very good passer. I am excited to see Allen Robinson with, by far, the most talented quarterback he's ever played with. I am even more excited to see what A-Rob does when that guy gets benched and Fields takes over. -Jason Katz

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