As the NFL Draft hits us this week, we will give you a final fantasy football mock draft intended to give you an idea of rookie values in the overall fantasy landscape before the actual Draft this Thursday. One of the primary reasons this may be helpful is to put into context where we think these rookies stand along with other players based on their talent and projected landing spots on Thursday.
To add interest to this one-man mock, we will also factor in several wild card personalities for teams in this draft. The hope is that by instituting the following personalities with your typical anonymous squads named "Analyst #," you will understand how a real draft may go….
- The Mavericks - This team is a risk-taker. They do not shy away from injured players, streaky players, and boom-or-bust types;
- Zero RB 4 Life - This team employs the zero running back theory;
- Half-Back 2 Da Future - This team goes running back heavy early, a smart strategy;
- The Basic B's - This team prints off an analyst's draft rankings and drafts from that almost exclusively. They are highly attracted to established big names and veterans;
- Jack Reacher - Reacher will get his guy, often a round or two higher than expected;
- The Trend Setters - This team will start runs at positions like QB and TE. They will value securing the best player(s) at a position, whether those positions are deep or not.
In this mock, we will be addressing Non-Superflex leagues playing in the re-draft format. Let's get to it!
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Round 1: Fantasy Football Mock Draft
Round | Pick | Fantasy Team | Player | NFL Team | Pos. |
1 | 1 | Analyst 1 | Jonathan Taylor | Colts | RB |
1 | 2 | Mavericks | Derrick Henry | Titans | RB |
1 | 3 | Analyst 2 | Christian McCaffrey | Panthers | RB |
1 | 4 | Zero RB 4 Life | Cooper Kupp | Rams | WR |
1 | 5 | Analyst 3 | Dalvin Cook | Vikings | RB |
1 | 6 | Half-Back 2 Da Future | Austin Ekeler | Chargers | RB |
1 | 7 | The Basic B's | Najee Harris | Steelers | RB |
1 | 8 | Analyst 4 | Ja'Marr Chase | Bengals | WR |
1 | 9 | Jack Reacher | Justin Jefferson | Vikings | WR |
1 | 10 | The Trend Setters | Joe Mixon | Bengals | RB |
1 | 11 | Analyst 5 | Alvin Kamara | Saints | RB |
1 | 12 | Analyst 6 | D'Andre Swift | Lions | RB |
Round 1 here is somewhat unremarkable. There will be some debate about how high some of these beaten and bruised veteran RBs should go, but in most drafts, people will continue to value the known quantities of Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. Expect McCaffrey to still be a top-five pick in most leagues, Henry to go in the first two picks, and most will grab their rusher early, knowing the RB position dries up quickly.
Two players to watch in re-drafts are Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. The LSU products could easily jump Cooper Kupp in many mocks, as fantasy drafters value the younger and faster options. Both former Tigers have more physical upside than Kupp, and there are fewer concerns that they’ve hit their ceiling. Chase is in the running as the top overall selection in dynasties and is in the top-five conversation in re-drafts.
Rounds 2-3: Fantasy Football Mock Draft
Round | Pick | Fantasy Team | Player | NFL Team | Pos. |
2 | 13 | Analyst 6 | Davante Adams | Raiders | WR |
2 | 14 | Analyst 5 | Stefon Diggs | Bills | WR |
2 | 15 | The Trend Setters | Travis Kelce | Chiefs | TE |
2 | 16 | Jack Reacher | Antonio Gibson | Commanders | RB |
2 | 17 | Analyst 4 | Mark Andrews | Ravens | TE |
2 | 18 | Basic B’s | Nick Chubb | Browns | RB |
2 | 19 | Halfback 2 Da Future | CeeDee Lamb | Cowboys | WR |
2 | 20 | Analyst 3 | Javonte Williams | Broncos | RB |
2 | 21 | Zero RB 4 Life | A.J. Brown | Titans | WR |
2 | 22 | Analyst 2 | Tyreek Hill | Dolphins | WR |
2 | 23 | Mavericks | Deebo Samuel | 49ers/TBD | WR |
2 | 24 | Analyst 1 | Mike Evans | Buccaneers | WR |
3 | 25 | Analyst 1 | Tee Higgins | Bengals | WR |
3 | 26 | Mavericks | Breece Hall | TBD | RB |
3 | 27 | Analyst 2 | Leonard Fournette | Buccaneers | RB |
3 | 28 | Zero RB 4 Life | Josh Allen | Bills | QB |
3 | 29 | Analyst 3 | Kenneth Walker III | TBD | RB |
3 | 30 | Halfback 2 Da Future | Cam Akers | Rams | RB |
3 | 31 | Basic B’s | Aaron Jones | Packers | RB |
3 | 32 | Analyst 4 | J.K. Dobbins | Ravens | RB |
3 | 33 | Jack Reacher | DeAndre Hopkins | Cardinals | WR |
3 | 34 | The Trend Setters | James Conner | Cardinals | RB |
3 | 35 | Analyst 5 | Josh Jacobs | Raiders | RB |
3 | 36 | Analyst 6 | Diontae Johnson | Steelers | WR |
The first rookies come off the board here. Hall and Walker are the consensus two top rookies for fantasy purposes in this class, and their potential at a thin position will force them up most boards even when you don't know where they'll land. However, Hall and Walker don't have quite the pure running ability that Jonathan Taylor had at Wisconsin. Their physical ceilings just don't look quite that high, so be wary of over-drafting them. We like both Walker and Hall for fantasy, but we simply don't have them as top-30 talents right now. However, if either were to end up with an unquestioned bell-cow role, that view could change.
The ADP of Cam Akers and J.K. Dobbins speaks volumes about just how thin the RB position is in 2022. Both players are coming off serious injuries and have yet to maintain a true workhorse load in the NFL, nor have their teams shown they intend to give them those roles in 2022. You like the talent when both are healthy, and you like the offenses they play in, but question marks surrounding their health and roles will cause many analysts to draft Josh Jacobs and James Conner instead.
Finally, you’ll notice that the stocks of Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown have taken a slight dip amid contract disputes. The fear of either of these players holding out into the season, missing serious camp time, or being traded to a worse situation has us dropping them on our boards. Deebo, in particular, could fall out of the first 30 picks if he were to end up with the Jets, which is what Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network is reporting will happen.
Rounds 4-5: Fantasy Football Mock Draft
Round | Pick | Fantasy Team | Player | NFL Team | Pos. |
4 | 37 | Analyst 6 | David Montgomery | Bears | RB |
4 | 38 | Analyst 5 | Keenan Allen | Chargers | WR |
4 | 39 | The Trend Setters | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | QB |
4 | 40 | Jack Reacher | Kyle Pitts | Falcons | TE |
4 | 41 | Analyst 4 | Ezekiel Elliott | Cowboys | RB |
4 | 42 | Basic B’s | Amari Cooper | Browns | WR |
4 | 43 | Halfback 2 Da Future | Saquon Barkley | Giants | RB |
4 | 44 | Analyst 3 | D.K. Metcalf | Seahawks | WR |
4 | 45 | Zero RB 4 Life | Jaylen Waddle | Dolphins | WR |
4 | 46 | Analyst 2 | D.J. Moore | Panthers | WR |
4 | 47 | Mavericks | George Kittle | 49ers | TE |
4 | 48 | Analyst 1 | Travis Etienne Jr. | Jaguars | RB |
4 | 49 | Analyst 1 | Elijah Mitchell | 49ers | RB |
5 | 50 | Mavericks | Garrett Wilson | TBD | WR |
5 | 51 | Analyst 2 | Terry McLaurin | Commanders | WR |
5 | 52 | Zero RB 4 Life | Michael Thomas | Saints | WR |
5 | 53 | Analyst 3 | Chris Godwin | Buccaneers | WR |
5 | 54 | Halfback 2 Da Future | Elijah Moore | Jets | WR |
5 | 55 | Basic B’s | Lamar Jackson | Ravens | QB |
5 | 56 | Analyst 4 | Michael Pittman Jr. | Colts | WR |
5 | 57 | Jack Reacher | Drake London | TBD | WR |
5 | 58 | The Trend Setters | Jerry Jeudy | Broncos | WR |
5 | 59 | Analyst 5 | DeVonta Smith | Eagles | WR |
5 | 60 | Analyst 6 | Justin Herbert | Chargers | QB |
Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase’s terrific rookie seasons the past two seasons will cause your friends to chase the next big rookie receiver this year, even in re-drafts. That should result in several rookies being over-drafted, just watch. With the injury to Jameson Williams limiting his 2022 value, Drake London and Garrett Wilson are the rookies most likely to go too high in re-drafts this year. While we like both prospects, we think London has the highest floor of rookie receivers in 2022, especially without knowing their landing spots. Why? It's because London has the size and ball skills that helped Mike Evans score 12 TDs as a rookie and put up a 200-yard game with Josh McCown at quarterback. London can do something like that, especially if a team like the 49ers were to nab in him a Deebo Samuel deal.
Rounds 6-7: Fantasy Football Mock Draft
Round | Pick | Fantasy Team | Player | NFL Team | Pos. |
6 | 61 | Analyst 6 | Courtland Sutton | Broncos | WR |
6 | 62 | Analyst 5 | Adam Thielen | Vikings | WR |
6 | 63 | The Trend Setters | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions | WR |
6 | 64 | Jack Reacher | Michael Carter | Jets | RB |
6 | 65 | Analyst 4 | Brandon Aiyuk | 49ers | WR |
6 | 66 | Basic B’s | Rashaad Penny | Seahawks | RB |
6 | 67 | Halfback 2 Da Future | Darren Waller | Raiders | TE |
6 | 68 | Analyst 3 | Chris Olave | TBD | WR |
6 | 69 | Zero RB 4 Life | Isaiah Spiller | TBD | RB |
6 | 70 | Analyst 2 | Darnell Mooney | Bears | WR |
6 | 71 | Mavericks | Gabriel Davis | Bills | WR |
6 | 72 | Analyst 1 | Treylon Burks | TBD | WR |
7 | 73 | Analyst 1 | Devin Singletary | Bills | RB |
7 | 74 | Mavericks | Kareem Hunt | Browns | RB |
7 | 75 | Analyst 2 | Brandin Cooks | Texans | WR |
7 | 76 | Zero RB 4 Life | Damien Harris | Patriots | RB |
7 | 77 | Analyst 3 | Marquise Brown | Ravens | WR |
7 | 78 | Halfback 2 Da Future | A.J. Dillon | Packers | RB |
7 | 79 | Basic B’s | Allen Robinson | Rams | WR |
7 | 80 | Analyst 4 | Miles Sanders | Eagles | RB |
7 | 81 | Jack Reacher | Jameson Williams | TBD | WR |
7 | 82 | The Trend Setters | Tyler Lockett | Seahawks | WR |
7 | 83 | Analyst 5 | Mike Williams | Chargers | WR |
7 | 84 | Analyst 6 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | Chiefs | WR |
Here you see a lot of rebound investments. At some point, managers will undoubtedly view players like Allen Robinson, Miles Sanders, Darren Waller, and Adam Thielen as prime bounce-back candidates after disappointing 2021 performances. Historically, players of their level have the potential to rebound, and the odds are some will. If we were betting, Thielen and Waller would be the most likely of that group to get healthier and provide starter quality stats.
However, there is one player we like more than any others in this range. That player is Brandon Aiyuk. The former Sun Devil looked to have a solid rapport with Trey Lance against the Texans last season, and he’s been working with the second-year passer this offseason. Aiyuk is more talented than the 49ers treated him last year, and the exit of Deebo could spell a massive turnaround for the Arizona State product. We were already predicting a rebound for Aiyuk, but the Deebo situation puts that possibility on overdrive.
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