RotoBaller Staff PPR Mock Draft: Post-NFL Draft Risers and Fallers

Before this year's NFL Draft, I offered a couple of one-man mock drafts to give you an idea of where rookies may fall in your local dynasty and re-draft leagues. Now that we are past the Draft, the staff here at RotoBaller got together to do a mock to see where fantasy football rookies place now that we know their new homes. The results of that mock were interesting.

Here you will find a link to our draft on Sleeper and a chart showcasing how it came down. It is worth noting that this is a non-Superflex format, with three starting WR spots, and the scoring is full-PPR.

As you can see, many of us came into this format with completely different ideologies and strategies.

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Along with the list of picks posted above, below you will find a team-by-team breakdown of each RotoBaller’s draft class. We will do our best to identify their strategy, strengths, and weaknesses. We will also point out some of the stronger picks in the class and some I may have done differently. And with that, let's get to the teams….

Team Dennis Sosic (Draft Position #1)

The team with the first pick in this mock started strong. With three of his first four picks, Dennis secured both the RB1 and the QB1 in all of fantasy this year. On top of that, he got the TE2 (Mark Andrews) on most boards and a player who could easily finish first at his position just like he did last year. I even considered taking Andrews over Travis Kelce with my pick at 2.02, though I ultimately determined Kelce was still the top option in re-drafts like this.

Of course, the ramifications of ignoring the WR position with each of your first four picks is the pickings can get slim at that spot very quickly. This is especially true in leagues that start three WRs, like in this mock. However, Dennis clearly understood the risk of ignoring WR early because he countered that move by hoarding high upside pass catchers with each of his next five picks. I appreciate Dennis' decision, knowing that high upside mid-round pass-catchers break out far more often than TEs or RBs selected in that range do.

The primary qualm I might have with Dennis’ draft is how early he took Josh Allen. As you can see, the quarterback position remained deep until the very end of this mock. While Allen is incredible, I would have preferred taking another receiver at pick 4.12 (perhaps Rashod Bateman) and waiting for a quarterback like Joe Burrow in the middle rounds or a Kirk Cousins/Trey Lance combo with his final two picks.

Team Justin Dunbar (Draft Position #2)

Justin used the second overall pick on Christian McCaffrey here, which is a pick some might consider bold considering the injury history. However, I am a fan of taking a risk on CMC early in re-drafts. There isn't a player who can match McCaffrey's PPR ceiling as an RB who can lead all of fantasy in points this year. Despite their injuries, McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook should all be considered re-draft options at 1.02.

A choice I was less excited about was Justin's decision to double-down on injury-prone backs by selecting Saquon Barkley with his second pick. Between them, Barkley and McCaffrey have played just 25 regular-season games over the past two seasons. That means they've been available for only 37.8% of fantasy-relevant contests during that time. Combining them on the same roster is a move that carries immense upside, but it’s also a very risky all-or-nothing approach.

Three of the better value picks in Justin’s class was Michael Gallup in the ninth round, Dameon Pierce in the eleventh, and Irv Smith in the thirteenth. The Cowboys prioritized keeping Gallup over Amari Cooper, and he should return at least WR3 value at a good price here. Meanwhile, anyone who follows me on Twitter knows that I was a fan of Pierce coming out of Florida. He was an underutilized weapon for the Gators, and he has the talent to immediately steal a big role in a thin Texans backfield. Finally, Irv Smith offers Justin a low-cost TE who could finish in the top ten at his position if all falls right.

Team Sam Wagman (Draft Position #3)

For Sam’s class review, we must begin with the disclaimer that I am legally obligated to like his Dalvin Cook pick. As a Cook apologist who pushed people to draft him even when he threatened to hold out two years ago, and someone who hoarded the FSU product after his first two years of injuries, I am an unabashed believer in his talent… when he’s healthy. He’s arguably still the second or third most gifted back in the NFL right now, and that alone is enough for many to take him early as Sam did here. Is there always risk with Cook? Of course. Is he worth it? I think he still is, even if this may be the last year that I can say this with a straight face.

Beyond my love of Cook, there were a couple more picks that I particularly loved for Sam. Those picks were Drake London in the sixth round and Christian Kirk in the ninth. I like the London pick because I consider him the safest pass catcher in this NFL Draft class, and I think he is going to a team that will have to throw him the ball a ton. I think London is a class ahead of Treylon Burks, who went before London in this mock. Meanwhile, I think Sam would be getting far more bang for his buck with Christian Kirk than the Jaguars ever will. Kirk looks to be the primary weapon for a still talented Trevor Lawrence, and that role is worth at least a WR3 ranking.

Now to some Sam picks I didn’t love. Derek Carr in the tenth is fine, but it felt like a reach even with Davante Adams in town. Carr was taken multiple rounds ahead of higher upside passers like Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and Aaron Rodgers. I also didn’t love the value of Dawson Knox in the eighth, given the number of pass catchers that Buffalo has added this offseason. I liked the value of Pat Freiermuth and Irv Smith, who were taken later, better.

Team Pierre Camus (Draft Position #4)

Our boss-man took Najee Harris at 1.04 over Derrick Henry, which is a move I wouldn’t have made, but I get it. The lack of wear on Harris and his immense volume make the move logical if you have doubts about Henry’s health. Henry was on an absolute tear to start last season, and there are reasons to believe he has one or two great years left in him, though.

Pierre’s next pick was Keenan Allen in the second, followed by A.J. Brown in the third. These picks were solid values, though I consider the Brown a terrific value and the Allen pick to be a slight reach. While there are clear concerns that Jalen Hurts won't get Brown as many quality targets as he's used to, Brown's talent should still return value as a third-round selection. Meanwhile, Allen showed signs of slowing down on film last year, and some are expecting Josh Palmer to take another step with this team in 2022. The possible ascension of Palmer, an improved running back stable with Isaiah Spiller, and the continued involvement of Mike Williams in the passing game could force Allen into more of a WR2 role this season.

Beyond his first three picks, the bag was mixed for our editor-in-chief. The Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price combo was good value in rounds five and 14, while Jarvis Landry's signing with the Saints could make him a solid addition in the 13th round. However, I have concerns about Cole Kmet being Pierre's only tight end, and Marlon Mack could prove to be a complete non-entity if Dameon Pierce becomes what some of us think he will.

Team Phil Clark (Draft Position #5)

Phil may have had the best start of anyone in this draft, at least from my perspective. Getting Derrick Henry at pick 1.05 in a re-draft format is a steal. People should strongly consider the human battering ram at pick 1.02, even with his injury concerns and lack of passing game involvement. His start to 2021 was historic, and that offense will go through the Alabama product until we are told otherwise.

Team Clark followed up that strong first pick with four more quality selections. Deebo Samuel carries a bit of risk, but we expect him to report to 49ers camp, given how harshly the league rules punish holdouts. In addition, James Conner has little to no competition for touches in Arizona, D.J. Moore is a quality WR2, and Rashod Bateman should see 100+ targets as the only established wideout on Baltimore’s roster. Phil's first five picks are very encouraging.

Phil had some strong picks in the middle and late rounds, as well. Getting Burrow in the eighth is a solid value. Robert Woods has upside in a Titans offense that could favor a veteran pass-catcher early on, and both Tyler Allgeier is a quality sleeper. David Bell is another name worth noting, as he too carries some underrated value.

As for picks I didn’t love, I didn’t particularly like the Hunter Renfrow selection. While the Clemson grad is a fine value in the ninth round, I have significant concerns about his ability to produce even WR4 level returns with the offense constructed as it is. With the presence of Adams, Darren Waller, and two backs capable of catching passes, Renfrow feels like a third or fourth wheel on a low-volume passing attack. While Josh McDaniels does have a history of involving his slot receivers, he also has a history involving his tight ends, running backs, and dominant outside receivers (i.e., Randy Moss in New England).

Team Adam Koffler (Draft Position #6)

Let’s begin with one of my more unpopular takes. I can’t ever get behind taking a receiver in the first seven picks of a re-draft. While Cooper Kupp will almost always go in the first six picks thanks to his elite role on a tremendous offense, his age and the sheer depth at the WR position makes it impossible for me to make that move. That doesn’t make Adam’s pick here a bad one, but fantasy has had a different #1 overall receiver in each of the past six seasons, and there seems to be little separating the top five or six WRs on my board this year. That is why I’d prefer going with an RB in this spot, though I’ll never fault someone for taking the best player on their board.

Beyond my minor qualm about receivers going so high, I liked Adam's draft overall. What truly tied Adam’s draft together was his ability to get tremendous running back value after the first round. He nabbed an RB1 in Kamara at pick #19, he got a high-upside RB2 with Travis Etienne in the fourth, and he got an absolute steal when J.K. Dobbins fell to him at #54. Adam’s ability to fortify his RB position so well with these picks ended up completely validating his choice to take Kupp early on.

Another pick of Adam’s that I liked very much was that of Josh Palmer. I strongly considered Palmer right before that pick, as he offers the ideal mixture of zero risk and promising reward. An injury to Mike Williams or Keenan Allen could send Palmer’s value into flex range.

Team Kyle Lindemann (Draft Position #7)

Let’s start with the good. Kyle here got very good value in Austin Ekeler, Terry McLaurin, and Deshaun Watson. Each of those players has the potential to outperform Kyle’s investment and finish in the top ten at their position. McLaurin and Watson, in particular, were solid gets considering the cost.

However, I have a couple of concerns about this roster makeup overall. One of those concerns is the over-reliance on timeshare RBs. Outside of Ekeler, each of Kyle's backs currently projects to be the secondary piece in their NFL backfield this season. While one or two could breakout, asking your RB2 to earn a role he doesn't currently project to have can be dangerous.

My second concern about this roster is its reliance on Tyreek Hill and George Kittle staying healthy/consistent. It will be hard for Hill to return on this draft capital if he can't come close to his past Kansas City production this year. That could be hard when you consider Hill is taking a significant step back in quarterback talent and is joining a run-oriented coaching staff in Miami. Meanwhile, George Kittle has struggled with injuries in each of the past three seasons, and his usage in San Francisco has been inconsistent. Hill and Kittle both carry more risk than some think.

Finally, we get to a point of contention amongst many fantasy analysts. Kyle and several other fantasy analysts love Treylon Burks and view him as the top overall rookie receiver in fantasy. I understand their position and agree that he could have a strong role in a decent offense. However, I disagree with anyone who puts Burks clearly ahead of Drake London right now. London was my top rookie receiver in this NFL Draft class, and he is joining a Falcons team that will have to throw far more than the Titans will. While London’s targets won’t always be as pretty as Burks’, I expect he will get a lot more of them early in the year.

Team Dan Fornek (Draft Position #8)

As someone who always starts running back heavy, I have to respect the receiver group Dan collected early in this mock. While he is far more confident in his ability to sniff out bargain RBs than I am, he got elite talent at all three of his starting receiver positions. Justin Jefferson is one of two receivers I would take in the first round, and CeeDee Lamb has the talent to join them in that elite tier if he can just cut out the concentration drops and get more consistent targets. It also helps that he added a terrific sleeper in Jalen Tolbert late. Tolbert could be a sneaky value if Michael Gallup were to get hurt again.

Of course, committing so heavily to receivers and having an elite quarterback like Patrick Mahomes means Dan had to take risks or fliers at other positions. I feel nervous running Antonio Gibson out as my RB2 in most leagues, so Dan having him as his RB1 is risky. Also risky is the proposition of needing consistent production from either Rashaad Penny, Chase Edmonds, or Michael Carter. None of them are in clear workhorse positions, and each could be the odd man out in their own backfield even if they can even remain healthy.

Another concern for me is the value of Dallas Goedert and Jamison Crowder after their teams secured more pass-catchers during the NFL Draft. With the additions of A.J. Brown in Philly and Khalil Shakir in Buffalo, there are direct threats to either Goedert or Crowder, seeing the volume they did last year. I fear Crowder, in particular, could be pushed out with both Shakir and Isaiah McKenzie offering cheaper and younger slot options.

Team Tommy Adamopoulos (Draft Position #9)

If Tommy's team can remain healthy, it's got a strong core. Chase is obviously an elite talent who could easily be WR1 in all of fantasy this year. Meanwhile, Fournette and Akers have shown the ability to be low-end RB1 options in fantasy when healthy, though both got a little competition for touches in the NFL Draft. I like each of these picks for how they mesh together.

After his first three rounds, we see Tommy go with a couple of talented players whose opportunities concern me. Detroit’s passing attack added multiple weapons that could steal targets from Amon-Ra St. Brown, which is concerning considering he is relatively target-dependent. I have similar concerns for Waddle, who was surprisingly volume-dependent last year. With Tyreek Hill in town, I fear that Waddle will lose a lot of the volume that made him valuable last year and that he won’t get as many of the deep shots as he deserves.

I am also concerned about the depth of Tommy's squad. Although I like Fournette and Akers as solid starters for this team, there isn't a lot of reliable depth behind those two. Despite Akers carrying injury concerns, his backups are Kareem Hunt, Melvin Gordon, and Alexander Mattison. Only Hunt is a viable starter on his own amongst that group, and even the shares valuable touches with another back. The lack of depth behind Akers is a bit of an issue.

Team Dessy John (Draft Position #10)

Each of John's first four picks was solid value, with Swift a particularly good choice. While I am lower than most on David Montgomery, and I'd like to see Kyle Pitts go around later than this, reality tells us both Montgomery and Pitts weren’t falling much further than where they went here. So, I liked these four picks overall.

After those first four picks, I have questions about this roster. In particular, I wonder about Allen Robinson in the fifth round, Damien Harris in the seventh, and Sony Michel in the twelfth. Robinson and Harris were both drafted at their ceiling, meaning there’s very little chance of them outperforming their draft capital and a good chance they underperform. Meanwhile, I have no inkling that Michel will have a noteworthy role in a crowded Dolphins backfield whatsoever. Each of these picks had me scratching my head a bit.

I felt that Dessy rebounded late after some hiccups in the middle of his class, though. Specifically, James Cook in the tenth and Alec Pierce in the fourteenth round were solid values. Cook should have a decent passing down role for the Bills, and I expect he will return high-end RB3 value at a bargain tenth-round price. As for Pierce, his only real competition for targets is Michael Pittman Jr., and Matt Ryan should throw the ball at least 450 times this year. Even in a run-heavy attack, a tall burner like Pierce should merit 70-80 targets at a minimum.

Team Chris Gregory (Draft Position #11)

This is my team, which took some significant risks at the receiver position. There may be no more boom-or-bust unit in this mock than my receivers, as I relied entirely on the suspect health of Chris Godwin, Michael Thomas, Jameson Williams, and the return of DeAndre Hopkins from suspension. However, I forced my hand into these picks by committing my first three choices to the RB and TE positions. While this mock took place before reports of Thomas’ rehab being behind schedule, I knowingly took a lot of risks that could force me to start DeVante Parker for an early portion of my season… which isn’t ideal.

Of course, if Godwin and Thomas can return to health early in the season, I feel good about my roster. Having those two healthy would pair well with the top-overall TE in fantasy (Travis Kelce) and a solid RB room led by Joe Mixon, Breece Hall, and Josh Jacobs. I expect Mixon's efficiency to rise behind an improved offensive line, and Hall has an overall skill set that places him comfortably in the RB2 discussion for PPR. Meanwhile, I expect Kelce to see increased targets with Tyreek Hill out of town, which should help counteract the early signs of aging we saw last season.

Another note about this roster is how long I waited on a quarterback. This was another move that could bite me, assuming that Rodgers struggles without Davante Adams and Trey Lance simply struggles. I liked the value of getting those two late, however. Rodgers felt like a safe floor bet who didn't cost me much, and Lance was a high-upside option that cost me even less.

Team Neverenough (Draft Position #12)

This is a mystery team, as none of us could identify the owner of this mock squad. Whoever put this team together will be fielding a solid but limited unit. Nick Chubb in the first feels like a bit of a reach, given the two-headed nature of Cleveland’s attack and the fact Chubb will finally play with a prolific passer whenever Deshaun Watson can play. On the other hand, Diggs is a solid WR1 option that offered good but not great value at the 1-2 turn.

The middle order of this draft is also an exercise in patience rather than potential. Ezekiel Elliott could rebound from another injury-filled year in 2021 and continue to put up RB1 stats, but the upside seems limited given how slow he's looked the past couple of years. Waller is a similar player to Elliott, in my mind. He also presents a solid floor but an increasingly limited ceiling, thanks to his age and an offense that suddenly has a lot of weapons at its disposal.

While I was underwhelmed by the beginning of this squad, I did like the second half of its build quite a bit. In particular, Chris Olave could be a bargain if Michael Thomas doesn't return from injury, Kadarius Toney is a worthwhile flyer where he was taken, and James Robinson could be a viable flex or low-end RB2 in the second part of this season. Each of those picks and the selection of Freiermuth in the twelfth were excellent values.

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