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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 6 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. Can you believe that we're already a quarter way through the season? It's time to keep it rolling for Week 6.
For those who are not familiar, each week I'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
This year I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games, and we will have separate articles for the Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football games. Be sure to read those as well. So join me as I help get your fantasy teams off to a strong start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 9:30 AM ET Game
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars
Matchups We Love:
Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA)
Waddle is in a great spot with DeVante Parker out for another week, taking on a Jaguars defense that ranks 32nd in pass DVOA, allowing 10.69 yards per target (31st). Waddle has posted a respectable 19.46% target share. He's been peppered with underneath targets (4.3 aDOT). Waddle looks like an upside WR3 in this exploitable matchup. Keep an eye on Preston Williams, who came out of nowhere to catch 3-of-5 targets for 60 yards last week. He's questionable for this game with a groin injury.
James Robinson (RB, JAX)
Robinson has really taken off in the last three games, combining for 315 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 51 carries. The second-year back once again finds himself as the focal point of this offense. This is a great spot against a Dolphins defense that ranks 21st in DVOA, allowing the second-most PPR points per game to running backs. Robinson has to be considered an RB1 in this spot. Look for him to keep the good times rolling here.
Matchups We Hate:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tua is slated to make his return in a plus matchup against a weak Jaguars defense. While everything looks good on paper, can you really trust Tua as your quarterback in his first game back from injury? Quarterback is such a deep position, so I can't recommend Tagovailoa as a viable streamer in this spot. If you're in a SuperFlex league, you're obviously starting him, but I'd look elsewhere in other formats.
Jaguars WRs
Laviska Shenault Jr. (1 REC, 58 YDS) and Marvin Jones Jr. (1 REC, 25 YDS) had awful games last week. They're starting to be more volatile, even with D.J. Chark out for the season. This is because the Jags are really leaning on James Robinson lately. We've also seen newly acquired tight end Dan Arnold start to make an impact in the passing game. It's hard to see both wideouts providing adequate fantasy production on a given week, making this a situation to avoid since it's tough to pick which receiver has a good game.
Other Matchups:
Myles Gaskin (RB, MIA)
Gaskin had a huge resurgence last week against the Bucs, catching all 10 of his targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns. Gaskin dominated snap share in that game, playing 68.52% of the snaps while Malcolm Brown only played 9.26%. This puts Gaskin back on the RB2 radar against a Jaguars defense that ranks 26th in PPR points per game allowed to running backs. You have to love Gaskin's role in the passing game, which really raises his floor in this spot.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Gesicki had combined for 19 receptions, 186 yards, and one touchdown with Jacoby Brissett under center, but it's unclear how his usage will look with Tua back in the lineup. This keeps him in the lukewarm section despite the injuries to Dolphins' wideouts like DeVante Parker and Will Fuller. I'd recommend taking a wait-and-see approach to see how volume shakes out with Tua back in the fold. If you're desperate, you can definitely take a chance on Gesicki as a TE1/2.
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Lawrence has had an underwhelming rookie season so far, averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and eight interceptions. The good news is that the volume continues to be there, as the rookie is averaging 35 pass attempts per game. The bad news is that this is inflated by his 51-attempt game in Week 1. If we remove that game, Lawrence is averaging 31 attempts per game. He takes on a Dolphins defense that was just shredded by Tom Brady, so we'll keep the rookie in the lukewarm section. Miami ranks 23rd in pass DVOA.
Dan Arnold (TE, JAX)
Arnold is playing well with the Jags, catching 8-of-10 targets for 93 yards in two games. Arnold has the ability to win downfield, which is huge for a potential tight end streamer because he doesn't need high volume to provide solid production. Arnold tied for the team lead in target share (24.24%) while putting up 63 air yards. The veteran tight end is a viable streamer in this game.
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Matchups We Love:
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
Moore is the best play in this game, going up against a Vikings defense that ranks 6th in pass DVOA but has allowed 9.01 yards per target to wide receivers (24th). Moore is currently WR7 in PPR formats due to his heavy volume and high efficiency, as he's put up a 28.57% target share (6th) and 71.4% catch rate. He's now established himself as a weekly WR1 as the clear-cut top option in this Panthers offense.
Matchups We Hate:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Cousins has really laid a few eggs lately, finishing as QB21 and QB27 in his last two games. He goes up against a tough Panthers defense that ranks 9th in pass DVOA, allowing only 6.32 yards per attempt (3rd). This game does not project as a shootout, as it has a 46-point total. This takes Cousins off the streaming radar in this tough spot. I'd look elsewhere if I was desperate at quarterback.
Other Matchups:
Vikings RBs
Dalvin Cook is ready to return to the lineup, as he's been able to practice so far this week. The problem is that it's unclear if he'll share the load with Alexander Mattison, who has performed at a high level in Cook's absence. It's also a tough matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks 2nd in rush DVOA, allowing the fewest PPR points per game to running backs. That leaves Cook and Mattison in the lukewarm section. Obviously, you're firing up Cook as an RB1, but temper your expectations.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Jefferson continues to establish himself as the clear-cut top option in this offense, leading the team with a 42.34% air yard share and 24.46% target share. The second-year star wideout has now racked up 80+ yards in three consecutive games. He's an every-week WR1, even in a tough matchup against a Panthers defense allowing the sixth-fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers. Jefferson's big-play ability and high volume make him matchup-proof.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)
Thielen has had a couple of slow weeks lately, combining for only 17 receptions, 175 yards, and two touchdowns in his last four games. His fantasy production has been salvaged by touchdowns. While the veteran wideout has a terrific rapport with Kirk Cousins, it's tough to like him in this tough matchup given what we've seen in recent weeks. He's starting to become too touchdown-dependent to rely on as an every-week WR2. Thielen is falling towards WR3 status.
Sam Darnold (QB, CAR)
Darnold is coming off a poor performance against the Eagles, completing only 57 percent of his passes for 4.8 yards per attempt and three interceptions. He takes on a Vikings defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. The good news is that Darnold has dual-threat ability, rushing for 62 yards and five touchdowns this year. This keeps him in the Top-15, but I'm not too excited about this matchup.
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)
Christian McCaffrey is unable to return to the lineup for this week, so Chuba Hubbard will continue to carry the load. The rookie had a nice game against the Eagles last week, rushing for 101 yards on 24 carries while adding five receptions for 33 yards. The Vikings rank 20th in rush DVOA, so this is an exploitable matchup, but we'll have to leave him in the lukewarm section as a solid RB2 because this game does not project to be high-scoring.
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
Anderson has been one of the biggest busts at wideout this year, but he's shown some signs of life in the last two games, racking up 18 targets during that stretch. As D.J. Moore continues to command more attention due to his early-season dominance, we could see opportunities open up for Anderson to get loose downfield. He's put up 15.2 aDOT, so the upside is there for a big game. Rookie Terrace Marshall is not fantasy-relevant at this point.
Additional Notes:
Vikings TE Tyler Conklin is a borderline Top-20 play, but this isn't the matchup to stream him.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Matchups We Love:
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Adams smashed against the Bengals last week, catching 11-of-16 targets for 206 yards and a touchdown. He's leading league with a 38.13% target share, picking up right where he left off last season. Adams goes up against a Bears defense that ranks 24th in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers. This defense has given up 9.44 yards per target to the position, which ranks 26th. Adams has a chance to eclipse 100 yards once again in this spot.
Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI)
Herbert looks ready to carry the load with Damien Williams (COVID-19) doubtful to play this week. He goes up against a Packers defense that ranks 29th in rush DVOA, so it's an exploitable matchup. Herbert played 51.67% of the snaps with 18 touches while Williams was on the field last week, so we could be looking at a nice workload. We can put Herbert on the RB2 radar in this good spot. Hopefully the Bears use him a bit in the passing game as well.
Matchups We Hate:
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
Tonyan is essentially falling off the fantasy radar entirely, coming off another dud where he caught 1-of-2 targets for 8 yards. Forget about his average draft position at this point, he doesn't belong in your starting lineup, no matter the matchup. In fact, it's time to drop Tonyan for another tight end with more opportunity like Ricky Seals-Jones. We need to start seeing some production before we can bring back Tonyan into the circle of trust.
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
Fields hasn't been impressive as a fantasy quarterback, averaging only 7.01 fantasy points per game since taking over as starter. The rookie has only nine rushing attempts for 25 yards - where did the rushing upside go? Perhaps head coach Matt Nagy is keeping the training wheels on his rookie quarterback, as Fields is also only averaging 19 pass attempts per game. The Bears might be forced to air it out to keep up with this Packers offense, but it's not something I'm willing to hang my hat on. Fields isn't worth starting unless you're in SuperFlex leagues.
Other Matchups:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Rodgers is currently QB18 with finishes of QB34, QB5, QB17, QB8, and QB14. He's no longer an every-week fantasy starter, as he's limited by lack of volume, averaging only 32.6 pass attempts per game. Rodgers goes up against a Bears defense that ranks 4th in pass DVOA, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. While I'll leave him in the lukewarm section due to his upside, I wouldn't feel excited about starting him this week.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Jones is currently RB8 in PPR formats, but we've started to see A.J. Dillon get more involved in the offense. Dillon has averaged 14 opportunities per game in his last two, compared to only 6.7 in his previous three. This was in one game script where the Packers controlled the game against the Steelers and another one in a close game against the Bengals. Dillon's emergence caps Jones' upside, but we can still consider the latter an every-week RB1. This is a tough matchup against a Bears defense that is giving up the ninth-fewest PPR points per game to running backs, but Jones' work in the passing game helps mitigate the risk in this spot.
Bears WRs
This is a low-volume passing offense under Fields, making it difficult for wideouts Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney to provide consistent fantasy production. While you would anticipate an uptick in volume against the Packers, it's tough to trust these wideouts in this spot, even with top cornerback Jaire Alexander out of the lineup. We have to remember that the Packers are among the slowest-paced teams (sixth-slowest) in the league, which further caps both floor and upside for Robinson and Mooney. I'd look elsewhere at wide receiver. A-Rob missed Thursday's practice, putting his status in doubt for Sunday.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Matchups We Love:
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Cooks has combined for only eight receptions and 70 yards in his last two games, but it's encouraging to see rookie quarterback Davis Mills go off for 312 yards (10.8 yards per attempt) and three touchdowns against the Patriots last week. If Mills can consistently have the offense functioning at a competent level, Cooks can provide upside WR3 value on a weekly basis. Cooks goes up against a Colts defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA, allowing 10.07 yards per target (30th) with the eighth-most PPR points per game to wideouts. This is a bounce-back spot for Cooks. The veteran wideout still ranks 2nd in the league with a 33.59% target share. We should see that volume turn into production in this spot.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Taylor has combined for six receptions, 283 total yards, and three touchdowns in his last two games. He's been able to put up that kind of production despite averaging only 18.5 touches per game during that span. The Colts are 10-point home favorites against the Texans, so this projects as a positive game script for Taylor. The Texans rank 30th in rush DVOA, allowing 4.72 yards per carry (28th in NFL). Even if Taylor gets only 18 touches in this game, he should still be able to provide RB1 production. This is a smash spot for JT, while Nyheim Hines can be viewed as a desperation FLEX in full-PPR formats. If the Colts play with the lead, it isn't good for Hines.
Matchups We Hate:
Texans RBs
We have started to see a shift in this backfield, as David Johnson out-snapped Mark Ingram III 52.54% to 44.07% in the Week 5 win over the Patriots. This is interesting because the Texans went with Johnson even in a positive game script. Johnson caught 5-of-6 targets for 46 yards, making him the preferred option in this backfield. He's on the radar as a desperation FLEX in full-PPR leagues. Ingram isn't worth starting because the Colts rank 2nd in rush DVOA, allowing only 3.87 yards per carry (8th). Ingram didn't practice Thursday (non-injury related), so monitor this for Sunday.
Other Matchups:
Carson Wentz (QB, IND)
Wentz had his best game of the season on Monday Night Football, completing 25-of-35 passes for 402 yards (11.5 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns. The Texans rank 24th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. While there's risk that this is a run-heavy game script with the Colts controlling the game, Wentz has been playing very well lately, completing over 70 percent of his passes in consecutive games. The Colts defense is also really struggling, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them in a shootout. Wentz is on the streaming radar.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Pittman has established himself as the alpha wide receiver one in this offense. The second-year wideout is playing on 91.28% of the snaps with a 25.29% target share and 36.9% air yard share. That's excellent usage that should see him on the WR2/3 fringe moving forward. Pittman goes up against a Texans defense that surprisingly ranks 9th in pass DVOA, allowing the seventh-fewest PPR points per game to wideouts. There's also the risk that the Colts jump out to an early lead and run the ball, resulting in less passing volume and limited upside for Pittman. Zach Pascal and Parris Campbell cut into each other's value and aren't worth starting at this time.
Additional Notes:
Texans QB Davis Mills made strides against the Patriots, but he's still off the fantasy radar
Colts TE Mo Alie-Cox is too touchdown-dependent to consider outside of DFS tournaments
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Matchups We Love:
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Kupp is coming off a down week against the Seahawks where he was still able to put up seven receptions for 92 yards. This is an elite WR1 every week, as he's posted a 33.14% target share this season, demonstrating fantastic chemistry with Matthew Stafford. The Giants rank 18th in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts. It's unlikely that they'll be able to slow down this high-octane passing attack.
Matchups We Hate:
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Engram returned from injury to a situation with opportunities for volume with the depleted receiving core, but he hasn't delivered, combining for nine receptions and 82 yards in two games. Now Sterling Shepard is expected to return to the lineup, which can eat into Engram's underneath targets. It's hard to have Engram in the circle of trust with how little he's produced with high volume, dating back to last season.
Other Matchups:
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Stafford is currently QB8 on the season, as he's made an immediate impact in Los Angeles. He has a good matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 22nd in pass DVOA, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The one risk here is that the Rams jump out to an early lead and take their foot off the gas, handing the ball off to Darrell Henderson Jr. Having said that, Stafford remains a mid-tier QB1 because we could still see the Rams put up a ton of points with their prolific passing offense here.
Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB, LAR)
Henderson is in a smash spot with the Rams coming in as 9.5-point road favorites against a Giants defense that ranks 26th in rush DVOA. The problem here is that it's starting to become too much of a pattern where Henderson leaves early with an injury or is forced to miss a drive as trainers tend to him on the sidelines. This is what keeps him in the lukewarm section for me. Consider him an upside RB2, but remember the injury risk here.
Robert Woods (WR, LAR)
Woods woke up from his season-long slumber last week, catching 12-of-14 targets for 150 yards against the Seahawks. It was only a matter of time before Bobby Trees came alive, as he's too good of a wideout to continue to underwhelm in an excellent situation. Having said that, I have to keep him in the lukewarm section as a WR3 considering that we've seen a low floor for him so far this season.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
Higbee has been held to only 12 receptions for 98 yards in his last four games, salvaging his fantasy production with two touchdowns. He's too good of a tight end to continue to put up such low yardage outputs on a weekly basis. This could be the spot for Higbee to put up 60+ yards, as he's dominated tight end snap share for the Rams. Having said that, we have to keep him as a low-end TE1 due to the low floor he's shown so far.
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
Jones is currently dealing with a concussion, but he's good to go for Sunday. The matchup isn't as tough as you would think with an Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey-led defense, as the Rams rank 16th in pass DVOA. The Rams have also given up 137 rushing yards to quarterbacks, which is the fifth-most in the NFL. We could see Jones take off and run more often with Saquon Barkley out with an ankle injury.
Devontae Booker (RB, NYG)
Booker takes over as the lead back with Saquon Barkley sidelined with an ankle injury. Booker was given a large workload last week, as he rushed 16 times for 42 yards and a touchdown while also catching 3-of-4 targets for 16 yards and a touchdown. We can safely project 15+ touches with a passing game role, which could lead to check-downs as the Giants play catch-up with the Rams. I'd consider Booker as a volume-based RB2/FLEX in this spot.
Giants WRs
Rookie Kadarius Toney has looked absolutely phenomenal in two games, catching 16-of-22 targets for 267 yards. That's highly impressive and it's clear that the rookie has carved out a role in this offense. He's the preferred option against a Rams defense that ranks 22nd in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts. Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton will return to the lineup, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Toney lead in targets once again.
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes is in a smash spot in a huge game for the 2-3 Chiefs, facing a Washington defense that ranks 29th in pass DVOA, allowing the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. This is a defense that just allowed Jameis Winston to go off for 279 yards and four touchdowns. This game has the highest total on the slate, so we can expect some fireworks here. Mahomes looks like the overall QB1 in this spot.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce is the top tight end option each week, especially when the Chiefs are going up against a weak pass defense like we have here. Kelce has had a couple of slow games in the last two weeks, combining for only 10 receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown, so we could see the Chiefs make it a point of emphasis to get him more involved in this game. This could be a blow-up spot.
Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS)
Heinicke has been rock-solid in fantasy since taking over for the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick, averaging 20.81 fantasy points (QB12) since Week 2. Washington continues to play at a fast pace in neutral game scripts (3rd-fastest) while passing on 58% of their plays. It's likely that the team will need to play catch up against this high octane Chiefs offense. This is a terrific spot for Heinicke. He's a Top-12 option for Week 6.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
McLaurin is dominating usage in Washington, leading the team in air yard share (44.28%) and target share (30.63%). Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas are out for this game, but it's likely that we'll see Dyami Brown. This leaves McLaurin with Ricky Seals-Jones, J.D. McKissic, Adam Humphries, and Antonio Gibson. We can project massive volume in this pass-heavy game script. McLaurin is an elite WR1 in this spot. McLaurin missed Friday's practice, but reports are that it was precautionary. He should be able to go on Sunday.
Ricky Seals-Jones (TE, WAS)
Seals-Jones has taken over as the receiving tight end in this offense with Logan Thomas sidelined. Seals-Jones had a solid game last week against the Saints, catching 5-of-8 targets for 41 yards. We can project solid volume for him in this pass-heavy game script. There's a chance that we can see even more targets with Samuel out for this game. He's firmly in the Top-12 this week, which gives you a sense of how barren the tight end position really is.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this projected shootout.
Other Matchups:
Darrel Williams (RB, KC)
Darrel Williams takes over as the lead back with Clyde Edwards-Helaire now on injured reserve. Washington has been much better against the run, ranking 9th in rush DVOA while allowing only 3.69 yards per carry (6th). Mahomes does not check down often to his running backs, so it's not like Williams can make much of an impact in the passing game. Having said that, the veteran has touchdown equity in a game that should be high-scoring, so this keeps him in the lukewarm section as an RB2.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Hill is currently banged up with a quad injury, causing him to miss practice all week, making his status unclear for this game. He goes up against a Washington defense allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to wideouts, so this is a fantastic spot. We've seen Hill go nuclear twice this season, combining for 22 receptions for 383 yards and three touchdowns. He has a higher upside than any wideout in football and we could see him hit his ceiling in this game.
Mecole Hardman (WR, KC)
Hardman had a big game against the Bills, catching 9-of-12 targets for 76 yards. The 12 targets were a career-high and we could see an elevated role with Hill banged up with a knee injury. We can consider him an upside WR3 in a game where we can expect to see a lot of fireworks. Hardman has established himself as the number-two wide receiver in this offense, so perhaps he'll start to deliver on that offseason hype. If Hill misses this game, Hardman can really pop off.
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
Gibson is currently playing through a shin injury, but that hasn't stopped him from providing solid fantasy production, as he found pay dirt twice against the Saints last week. The problem is that he hasn't been very efficient with his touches and he's not being used in the passing game too much, totaling two targets in four consecutive games. We could see this turn into a J.D. McKissic game with Washington projected to play from behind. He's firmly on the FLEX radar in full-PPR formats. Having said that, the Chiefs are 32nd in rush DVOA, so perhaps Gibson approaches his ceiling here. He's on the RB1/2 fringe in this spot.
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions
Matchups We Love:
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Chase has had a phenomenal start to his NFL career, catching 23-of-35 targets for 435 yards and five touchdowns. The rookie leads the Bengals with a 47.41% air yard share and tied for the highest target share with 24.65%. If the Lions are able to stay competitive here, we could see Chase go absolutely nuclear in this spot. Detroit is allowing 11.24 yards per target, which is the worst in the league. Chase is a Top-10 wideout here.
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
Swift currently ranks as RB7 in PPR formats, coming in second among running backs with 35 targets. While Jamaal Williams is eating into Swift's workload, the second-year back is getting the high-value touches: targets and red-zone carries. Swift goes up against a Bengals defense that has given up 51 targets to running backs, which is the second-most in the NFL. Fire him up as an RB1 in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Goff has really struggled lately, finishing as QB33, QB22, and QB30 in his last three games. He goes up against a Bengals defense that ranks 12th in pass DVOA, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. There's no way we can trust Goff as a streamer right now. Detroit's wide receiving core is extremely limited, so it's tough for Goff to provide adequate fantasy production.
Other Matchups:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Burrow has finished as QB11 and QB15 in the last two weeks. He's in a smash spot here against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in pass DVOA, allowing 9.96 yards per attempt (32nd). The problem is that their rush defense is so bad that teams aren't having to throw against them. Quarterbacks are only averaging 27 attempts per game against the Lions. If Cincinnati is able to control this game on the ground, there might not be enough volume for Burrow to hit his ceiling, keeping him in the lukewarm section here.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon is in a smash spot against a Lions defense that ranks 28th in rush DVOA, allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to running backs. Samaje Perine is on the COVID list, which could put Mixon in line for a nice workload if he's able to play. Head coach Zac Taylor stated that Mixon is in line for a full workload, which is great news in this smash spot. The problem is that it's hard to trust Taylor when it comes to injuries. For that reason, I'm leaving Mixon in the lukewarm section.
Bengals WRs
Tee Higgins came second with an 18.92% target share in his first game back from injury, while Tyler Boyd only had a 13.51% target share. Both wideouts are in a great spot here, but they've taken a backseat to standout rookie Ja'Marr Chase. I'd prefer Higgins as an upside WR3 in this spot with Boyd as the odd man out. Boyd needs volume in order to get there and I don't see it happening as the third option in this offense.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
The rookie has started to make an impact for the Lions, catching 13-of-16 targets for 135 yards in his last two games. Quintez Cephus is now out for the season, so St. Brown has a legitimate opportunity to become the team's leader in targets, at least among the wideouts. The Bengals rank 21st in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers, so this is a good spot for St. Brown. He has some WR3 appeal in PPR formats.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Hockenson has really fallen off lately, combining for eight receptions and 74 yards in his last three games, as he's been limited by a knee injury. Hockenson was able to get in a limited practice on Thursday, which bodes well for his chances of suiting up on Sunday. If he plays, you have to roll him out there because of how weak tight end is, but temper your expectations because he isn't at 100 percent.
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Matchups We Love:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Herbert is coming off a fantastic game against the Browns, where he completed 26-of-43 passes for 398 yards and four touchdowns while adding 29 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Chargers are passing 64% of the time while playing at the fastest pace in neutral game scripts. This is a terrific setup for Herbert. We just saw this Ravens defense allow over 400 passing yards to Carson Wentz. They are now ranked 20th in pass DVOA. Herbert is an elite QB1.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Ekeler continues to provide elite production, rushing 17 times for 66 yards and two touchdowns while catching 3-of-5 targets for 28 yards and a touchdown. The dynamic back has now scored six touchdowns in his last three games. This Ravens defense isn't the same anymore, ranking 19th in rush DVOA while allowing the fifth-most PPR points per game to running backs. We just saw Jonathan Taylor put up 169 total yards and two touchdowns against them. Ekeler needs to be viewed as a Top-3 option.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Allen has not shown the same ceiling as his teammates, but he's still averaging over 10 targets per game. Allen is coming off three underwhelming performances, where he's combined for 21 receptions for 161 yards and one touchdown, so perhaps the Chargers try to get him more involved in this spot. The Ravens are allowing the ninth-fewest PPR points per game to wideouts, but they just allowed Michael Pittman Jr. to go for six receptions, 89 yards, and a touchdown. Allen remains a high-end WR2 in this spot.
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Jackson is coming off a ridiculous performance against the Colts, where he completed 37-of-43 passes for 442 yards and four touchdowns while adding 62 yards on the ground. He's now averaging 303.8 passing yards per game at 9.1 yards per attempt to go along with 68.2 rushing yards per game. Lamar has become even more of a fantasy cheat code right now and has a chance to finish as the overall QB1 this season. He takes on a Chargers defense that ranks 11th in pass DVOA, but they just allowed 305 yards and 9.5 yards per attempt to Baker Mayfield. This isn't a matchup to fear. Jackson missed Thursday's practice, so keep an eye on his status.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Hollywood Brown continued his breakout season on Monday Night Football, catching 9-of-10 targets for 125 yards and two touchdowns. In his last 13 games, he's totaled 95 targets, 65 receptions, 985 yards, and 11 touchdowns. That's WR1 production. While promising rookie Rashod Bateman is expected to return for this game, it's unlikely that he'll see a full workload. Brown needs to be considered an upside WR2 going forward.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Andrews showed us just how high his ceiling is last week, catching 11-of-13 targets for 147 yards and two touchdowns. He's now combined for 26 receptions, 380 yards, and two touchdowns in his last four games after starting the season with only two receptions for 20 yards. That's absolutely elite production, demonstrating why so many people were high on Andrews as a potential Top-3 tight end coming into the season. He's getting closer to the Travis Kelce and Darren Waller tier with each passing week.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this projected shootout.
Other Matchups:
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Williams has surpassed Allen as the top wideout in this offense. He's coming off a monster game against the Browns where he caught 8-of-16 targets for 165 yards and two touchdowns. He's now totaled 80+ yards in four of his five games, including two games with more than 120 yards. Williams has become the total package at wide receiver, as he's no longer just a downfield and red-zone threat. He's a WR1 in this projected shootout. The problem is that it's starting to look like he'll miss this week's game. If he does play, we might see him act as a decoy.
Jared Cook (TE, LAC)
Cook has provided modest production at tight end, catching 17-of-26 targets for 210 yards and one touchdown. The veteran tight end ranks 19th in target share, but tied for 11th in targets, demonstrating the impact of his favorable team context in a pass-heavy offense. We could see Cook find the endzone in this projected shootout, so he's firmly on the streaming radar in this spot.
Latavius Murray (RB, BAL)
Murray is in a great spot against a Chargers defense that ranks 31st in rush DVOA. He also has high touchdown equity in a prolific offense, so there's a decent chance that he'll find the endzone. Having said that, we still have Ty'Son Williams, Devonta Freeman, and sometimes Le'Veon Bell taking away touches in this backfield, so it's tough to move Murray out of the lukewarm section, even in a plus matchup.
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 PM ET Games
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
Matchups We Love:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Murray is coming off a slow week where he was limited to only 239 passing yards and one rushing yard against the 49ers. This is a bounce-back spot against a Browns defense that ranks 19th in pass DVOA, allowing 398 yards and four touchdowns to Justin Herbert last week. The Browns are now giving up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, so Murray should be back to providing elite QB1 production in this spot.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
Hopkins started to show signs that he's back to full health last week, catching 6-of-9 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. Hopkins put up a 32.14% target share, 75.58% air yard share, and 18.2 average depth of target in that game. From Weeks 1-4, he posted a 19.38% target share, 26.14% air yard share, and 10.4 average depth of target. This is a great sign and we can expect Hopkins to provide strong WR1 production moving forward. He takes on a Browns defense that ranks 14th in PPR points per game to wideouts, but they just got shredded by Mike Williams for eight receptions, 165 yards, and two touchdowns. This is a great spot for Nuk, but keep an eye on his status, as he missed Thursday's practice.
Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE)
Kareem Hunt has the backfield to himself with Nick Chubb out for this game. Hunt (5.4 YPC) has been among the most efficient runners in the NFL. The Browns' offensive line excels in run-blocking, ranking 2nd in Adjusted Line Yards this season. The Cardinals rank 13th in rush DVOA, but they're giving up 5.14 YPC (30th). You have to love how Hunt is being used in the red-zone and passing game, as he has five rushing touchdowns and 21 targets, which helps him provide strong weekly production despite only getting 15.2 opportunities per game. Let's see what he can do with a full workload.
UPDATE: Kareem Hunt is listed as questionable for Week 6, which may lead to more touches for D'Ernest Johnson and Demetric Felton.
Matchups We Hate:
Browns WRs
Odell Beckham Jr. delivered another disappointing performance in that 47-42 shootout loss to the Chargers, catching only 2-of-3 targets for 20 yards. Beckham was outplayed by Donovan Peoples-Jones, who put up five receptions for 70 yards. This is a tough matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks 3rd in pass DVOA but ranks 20th in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers. While we can't put OBJ in the hate section because we could see this turn into another shootout, it's hard to feel confident about him as anything more than a volatile WR3. Jarvis Landry is expected to return to the lineup this week, which makes this situation even more tough to figure out.
Other Matchups:
Cardinals RBs
Chase Edmonds had his first dud of the season, clearly limited by his shoulder injury. He only put up 15 rushing yards on six carries with three catches for 19 yards. Despite this poor performance, Edmonds still ranks 17th among running backs in expected fantasy points. His role in the passing game (26 targets) keeps him as an upside RB2 every week. Keep an eye on his injury status, as we'll need to see him practice to bring him back in the circle of trust for Week 6. James Conner continues to dominate red-zone usage, rushing for his fifth touchdown in his last three games against the 49ers. He's an upside FLEX, especially if Edmonds has another reduced workload in this spot. If Edmonds is fully healthy, this is a bad spot for Conner because the Browns rank 5th in rush DVOA. Conner would need to fall into the endzone to get there against the Browns, which he's doing quite often lately.
Cardinals WRs
It's tough to determine which supporting wideout will go off on any given week for the Cardinals. Keep an eye on Rondale Moore, who saw his snap share increase from 37.82% (Weeks 1-4) to 47.54% (Week 5). Moore also had a 21.43% target share. This came at Christian Kirk's expense, as his snap share decreased from 62.18% to 54.1%. A.J. Green continues to play (80% snaps in Week 5), but he only had 14 air yards after putting up 263 air yards from Weeks 1-4. Perhaps we're starting to see a change of the guard here with the rookie Moore getting more work. I'd roll with Moore as my preferred option out of this trio.
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Mayfield turned in an efficient game against a tough Chargers defense, completing 71.9% of his passes for 305 yards on 9.5 yards per attempt. The Cardinals are allowing only 6.71 yards per attempt (7th) and we could see the Browns find success on the ground, but the potential shootout here keeps Mayfield in play as a streamer. If Mayfield is forced to keep up with Kyler and company, he could provide similar production to what we saw against the Chargers.
Additional Notes:
Browns TE David Njoku went off for seven receptions, 149 yards, and a touchdown. Keep an eye on him because he's super athletic and deserves an increased role.
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
Matchups We Love:
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Zeke has really turned it up a notch since his Week 1 dud against the Bucs, ranking as RB5 in PPR formats since Week 2. The Cowboys rank 1st with 5.47 Adjusted Line Yards, meaning that their offensive line is the best run-blocking unit in the NFL. Zeke goes up against a Patriots defense that ranks 22nd in rush DVOA, so this is another great spot. Tony Pollard has averaged 14 touches per game since Week 2, so he's firmly in FLEX consideration in the plus matchup. The Cowboys running game has looked unstoppable so far this season.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Meyers continues to put up steady production for the Patriots, leading the team with a 24.6% target share. He's in a good spot against a Cowboys defense that has given up big games to Kadarius Toney (10 REC, 189 YDS), D.J. Moore (8 REC, 113 YDS, 2 TD), Keenan Allen (4 REC, 108 YDS), Mike Williams (7 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD), Antonio Brown (5 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD), and Chris Godwin (9 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD). Consider Meyers an upside WR3 in this spot. Cowboys' cornerback Trevon Diggs has missed practice all week, which puts his status in doubt for Sunday. Diggs' absence would be good for Meyers.
Matchups We Hate:
Damien Harris (RB, NE)
It's hard to get too excited about Harris because he's essentially a zero in the passing game and the Patriots have surprisingly been pass-heavy this season. The Pats are passing on 63% of their plays in neutral game scripts. This is bad news for Harris' fantasy value going forward. He takes on a Cowboys defense that ranks 8th in rush DVOA, so this is not exactly a great matchup. I'd prefer to target New England's passing game in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Prescott currently ranks as QB10, but he's only averaging 33 pass attempts per game. The success of the running game coupled with the improvements on defense has limited Dak's upside because he doesn't need to air it out 40-45 times per game anymore. Having said that, his efficiency is strong, keeping him as a weekly QB1. Dak goes up against a Patriots defense that ranks 8th in pass DVOA, so it's a tough matchup. We could see the Cowboys lean on their running game in this one, which is why Prescott stays in the lukewarm section.
Cowboys WRs
The decrease in passing volume along with the emergence of Dalton Schultz has had a major impact on the Cowboys' wideouts. CeeDee Lamb has only combined for 14 targets in his last three games, while Amari Cooper has been limited to 4.5 targets per game since his 17-target outburst in Week 1. That's even with Michael Gallup out of the lineup, which makes me skeptical about their rest-of-season outlooks. We need to consider Lamb and Cooper more as WR2s going forward until we see a pass-heavy game script for Dallas.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
Schultz has been one of the major breakouts of the season, catching 18-of-23 targets for 217 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games. We need to consider him a weekly TE1 going forward, as he's led the Cowboys in target share (29.11%) since Week 3. It's clear that he's carved out a role in this offense. This projects as a run-heavy game script for Dallas, which is why Schultz stays in the lukewarm section, but he's a solid play in this spot.
Mac Jones (QB, NE)
Jones is quietly averaging 38 pass attempts per game this season, which is the kind of volume that could result in a spike week in the right game script. This game profiles as one of those, as the Patriots will likely have to play catch-up against this Cowboys team that has looked like one of the best in the NFL so far this season. Dallas is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, putting Mac firmly on the streaming radar in this spot.
Patriots TEs
Hunter Henry has combined for 10 receptions, 107 yards, and two touchdowns in the last two games, establishing himself as the preferred tight end over Jonnu Smith. Smith only had 19 air yards in Week 5, while Henry had 81, which shows that Smith just isn't running enough routes to be considered a viable option. The Pats will likely have to air it out in this spot, which puts Henry in play as a streamer. Smith is more touchdown-dependent.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Matchups We Love:
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
Waller has combined for 29 targets in four games after putting up 19 in Week 1, but it's only a matter of time before we get another spike week. Waller is still posting a 24.62% target share, which ranks first among tight ends. The Broncos are allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to tight ends, but they've gone up against the likes of Kyle Rudolph, James O'Shaughnessy, Tyler Kroft, and Eric Ebron. The only upper-echelon tight end they've faced is Mark Andrews, who put up five catches for 67 yards. Funneling targets to Waller is the best way to move the ball against this Broncos defense.
Broncos RBs
It's only a matter of time before we see a breakout game from Javonte Williams. The rookie rushed for 67 yards on eight carries while catching three passes for 25 yards against the Steelers last week. His talent jumps off the screen when you watch him, as he can really break tackles at a high rate. Williams (41.67% snaps) continues to share the backfield with Melvin Gordon (60% snaps), which limits the upside of this backfield, but I'd bet on the rookie taking over sooner than later. This is a good matchup against a Raiders defense that is tied for 21st in PPR points per game to running backs.
Matchups We Hate:
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Carr has had a couple of duds in his last two, combining for only 402 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The good news is that the Raiders have continued to air it out at a decent clip, as Carr has averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game. It's unclear if we'll see any shift in offensive philosophy with Jon Gruden now out as Raiders head coach. This is also a tough matchup against a Broncos defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. I'd look elsewhere if I was desperate for a quarterback in this spot.
Raiders WRs
Henry Ruggs III is the wideout to prefer here, as he's racked up at least 50 yards in four consecutive games. Ruggs ranks 18th with 491 air yards despite playing only 70% of the snaps, so there's upside here. Hunter Renfrow has caught either five or six balls in each of his games this season, demonstrating a solid floor in full-PPR formats. The issue here is they face a tough Broncos defense that ranks 13th in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, DEN)
Bridgewater is currently ranked as QB25, but that's skewed by the Ravens game where he was forced to leave early. If we remove that game, Teddy is around the QB17 range. He goes up against a Raiders defense that ranks 14th in pass DVOA, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Bridgewater is in a similar spot to Carr as a weekly streamer who is in a tough matchup. It's tough to get excited about Teddy in this game.
Other Matchups:
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Jacobs has combined for 28 carries, 88 yards, and one touchdown, but there's one aspect about his production that has me feeling intrigued. Jacobs has caught 9-of-10 targets for 36 yards in his last two games. He's never put up five targets in consecutive games throughout his career. Are the Raiders finally using him in the passing game? This would be a huge development for his fantasy value. The Broncos are giving up the second-fewest PPR points per game to running backs, but the volume keeps Jacobs on the RB2 radar. Jacobs missed Thursday's practice with an illness.
Broncos WRs
Courtland Sutton had a big game against the Steelers, catching 7-of-11 targets for 120 yards and a touchdown. He ranks 2nd in the NFL with 644 air yards, giving him high upside. Tim Patrick has carved out a solid role in this offense, putting up 80+ yards in two of his last three games. The Raiders have been pretty stout against wideouts, allowing the fifth-fewest PPR points per game, but we can leave these wideouts in the lukewarm section. Consider Sutton an upside WR3 in this spot and keep an eye on Patrick.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Fant has really slowed down lately, combining for only 11 receptions for 81 yards in his last three games. He still ranks 2nd on the team with an 18.79% target share, so better days should be ahead. The Raiders rank 21st in PPR points per game to tight ends, so perhaps this is the spot where Fant gets back on track. Consider him a low-end TE1 in this spot though, as he's limited by the Broncos low-volume offense due to their slow pace of play.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers
Matchups We Love:
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Harris has surpassed even the most optimistic expectations this year, putting up mega-volume as the Steelers' bell cow. The rookie is averaging an absurd 7.8 targets and 23.4 opportunities per game. He's currently ranked as RB3 in full-PPR formats. Harris is matchup-proof due to his huge workload, as he's essentially playing the role Le'Veon Bell used to play in Pittsburgh. This is a smash spot against a Seahawks defense that ranks 17th in rush DVOA, allowing the third-most PPR points per game to running backs.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Johnson continues to be the most underappreciated alpha wideout in football. He's put up double-digit targets in 11 of his last 14 games. Now JuJu Smith-Schuster has been lost for the season, so we can safely project that Johnson will at least maintain this terrific role going forward. Johnson needs to be considered as an every-week, elite WR2 with some WR1 upside. He has a great matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranks 28th in pass DVOA, allowing the seventh-most PPR points per game to wide receivers.
Matchups We Hate:
Alex Collins (RB, SEA)
Chris Carson is out for this game, leaving Collins to continue as the lead back. While we could see the Seahawks go more run-heavy with Russell Wilson sidelined, it's hard to trust Carson against a defense that ranks 6th in rush DVOA, limiting opposing running backs to the fourth-fewest PPR points per game. Consider Collins a matchup-based FLEX in this tough spot.
Other Matchups:
Seahawks WRs
D.K. Metcalf is the preferred wideout here, as he leads the team in target share (28.36%) and air yard share (39.87%), but Tyler Lockett isn't far behind (26.12% target share, 38.8% air yard share). While they have a good matchup against a Steelers defense that has actually been vulnerable to opposing wideouts, allowing the third-most PPR points per game to the position, it's hard to trust them as more than lukewarm options with Geno Smith at quarterback. Consider both players as middling WR2s with upside here.
Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)
Claypool is starting to come alive lately, combining for 21 targets, 14 receptions, 226 yards, and a touchdown in his last two games. Now with JuJu out for the season, Claypool is slated for a larger role moving forward. He's entered the WR2 realm with these latest developments, especially with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger showing signs of life last week, where he passed for 253 yards on 10.1 yards per attempt.
Additional Notes:
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is not yet back in the circle of trust, but you could use him as a streamer in SuperFlex leagues. We need to see more before he enters that realm in 1-QB formats.
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