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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 9 matchup analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football.
For those who are not familiar, each week I'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Special thanks to PFF, RotoViz, RotoWire, Football Outsiders, FantasyPros, and Add More Funds for providing valuable information.
This year I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games, and we will have separate articles for the Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football games. Be sure to read those as well. So join me as I help get your fantasy teams off to a strong start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Bills -14.5
Implied Total: Bills (31.5) vs. Jaguars (17.0)
Pace: Bills (5th) vs. Jaguars (12th)
Scheme: Bills (64% Pass, 36% Rush) vs. Jaguars (56% Pass, 44% Rush)
Bills Off. DVOA: 28.0% Pass (8th), -11.5% Rush (18th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 49.6% Pass (32nd), -14.0% Rush (14th)
Bills Def. DVOA: -31.0% Pass (1st), -21.8% Rush (5th)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: -11.1% Pass (27th), 5.4% Rush (2nd)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
The Bills offense ranks 5th in EPA per dropback and the Jaguars defense is 31st in EPA per dropback, making this a huge mismatch. Josh Allen has put up 0.242 EPA per play, ranking 4th among quarterbacks. He has averaged 30.78 points per game since Week 3, which ranks as QB1. That's 4.1 more per game than QB2 Tom Brady. Even in a game where Allen only averaged 5.9 yards per attempt against Miami, he still managed to put up 29.46 fantasy points, finishing as overall QB1. The Jags just allowed Geno Smith to finish as QB8. The Bills have also shown a willingness to keep airing it out even when leading by multiple scores. Allen needs to be considered as the best quarterback on the slate in an absolute smash spot here.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Stefon Diggs turned in another disappointing performance in a good spot last week, catching 5-of-7 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown. He now ranks as WR19 in PPR points per game, but he still has 98.4 Expected Fantasy Points (WR12). Diggs is in another great spot against a Jaguars defense allowing 39.6 PPR PPG (26th) and 9.97 yards per target (31st) to wide receivers. You have to continue to consider Diggs as a Top-10 WR despite the underwhelming results so far this season, but it might be time to stop ranking him in the Top-3.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, BUF)
Emmanuel Sanders is in a perfect bounce-back spot after going catch-less against the Dolphins last week. Prior to that outing, the veteran wideout had combined for 18 receptions for 313 yards and four touchdowns. Sanders has surprisingly led the team with 781 air yards, out-gaining Diggs by 42. He's currently ranked as WR34 in PPR PPG, but that's skewed by last week's dud. From Weeks 1-7, Sanders ranked as WR22 PPR PPG. Look for him to bounce back against this weak Jaguars defense.
Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
Cole Beasley was the big beneficiary of Dawson Knox's absence last week, catching 10-of-13 targets for 110 yards. Beasley has now combined for 17 receptions, 198 yards, and one touchdown in his last two games. While he's shown a low floor this season, putting up fewer than 20 yards in two games, you have to like him as a solid WR3, especially in full-PPR leagues. There's always risk that one of the Bills wideouts has a down week because there are several mouths to feed, but Buffalo should have a ton of success airing it out against this defense, so you'll need to fire up Beasley. Keep an eye on his status, as he's currently dealing with a rib injury.
Matchups We Hate:
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Trevor Lawrence has been a massive disappointment this season, putting up -0.023 EPA per play (28th) and -4.7 CPOE (32nd). He's currently averaging 15.76 fantasy points per game (QB25) and now takes on a Bills defense giving up -0.157 EPA per dropback (1st) to opposing passers. This is an awful matchup for a rookie quarterback, especially one leading one of the worst offenses in the NFL. While the game projects as a pass-heavy game script with the Jags playing catch-up, I would recommend avoiding Lawrence if you're in need of a streamer here. The matchup is too tough and this offense is too inept.
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, JAX)
The Jaguars wideouts are also players to avoid here, going up against a Bills defense that has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per game to the position. While DeVante Parker played well against them last week, catching 8-of-11 targets for 85 yards, it's tough to determine which Jags wide receiver will provide decent production in this tough matchup. Marvin Jones is the best option, as he leads the team in air yards (643) and target share (20.23%), but Jamal Agnew has emerged, catching 17-of-25 targets for 157 yards and a touchdown in his last three games. Laviska Shenault has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season, putting up two catches or fewer in three of his last six games. I'd recommend avoiding this passing game, but I'd rank them as: 1) Jones, 2) Agnew, and 3) Shenault.
Other Matchups:
Zack Moss (RB, BUF)
Zack Moss (RB23 in PPR PPG) has his upside capped by Devin Singletary (18 touches in the last two weeks), but it's clear that Moss is the better option. The Jaguars defense is better against the run, ranking 22nd in EPA per play and allowing 3.57 yards per carry (4th), but the positive game script keeps Moss on the FLEX radar as a lukewarm option here. There's always a chance that Moss can steal away a couple of red-zone touches, which would really allow him to hit his ceiling in a game where the Bills should score a ton of points. Having said that, we have to leave Moss in this section due to Buffalo's pass-heavy tendencies facing a pass-funnel defense.
Carlos Hyde (RB, JAX)
Carlos Hyde looks poised for a strong workload with James Robinson likely out for this game. Robinson is the engine of this offense, so there's a good chance that we'll continue to see Jacksonville struggle to move the ball against one of the best defenses in the NFL. However, Hyde's potential volume is valuable, as the veteran put up nine carries and eight targets against the Seahawks once Robinson left the game. That keeps him as a FLEX in the tough matchup, but temper your expectations because it'll likely be an inefficient game. The Bills are allowing the fewest PPR points per game to running backs this season.
Dan Arnold (TE, JAX)
Arnold continues to see promising usage with the Jaguars, catching 18-of-25 targets for 188 yards since joining the team. Arnold has games of eight and 10 targets in his last three, including eight receptions for 68 yards against the Seahawks last week. The veteran tight end has played his way to the streaming radar, even in a tough matchup against the Bills. Buffalo ranks 8th in PPR PPG allowed to tight ends and it's tough to see Jacksonville scoring many points here, so there isn't much touchdown potential for this game. However, if you're in need of a tight end, you could do worse than Arnold this week.
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Patriots -4
Implied Total: Patriots (22.5) vs. Panthers (18.5)
Pace: Patriots (19th) vs. Panthers (20th)
Scheme: Patriots (57% Pass, 43% Rush) vs. Panthers (53% Pass, 47% Rush)
Patriots Off. DVOA: 13.8% Pass (17th), -8.7% Rush (15th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: -5.5% Pass (6th), -9.8% Rush (19th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: 1.3% Pass (10th), -11.5% Rush (17th)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -14.7% Pass (29th), -13.4% Rush (21st)
Matchups We Love:
There are no matchups to love in this game, as it projects to be one of the most low-scoring games this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Mac Jones (QB, NE)
Mac Jones has had a solid rookie season, but it hasn't translated into fantasy production, as he currently ranks as QB22, averaging only 14.67 fantasy points per game. He goes up against a Panthers defense that is tied for 6th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Carolina ranks 3rd in EPA per dropback, giving up only 6.48 yards per attempt through the air. This is also the Stephon Gilmore revenge game, as the star corner made his Panthers debut last week. This has the makings of a scrappy, defensive game, leaving Jones off the radar.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Meyers has devolved into merely a floor WR3/4 play in full-PPR formats, putting up four or five receptions in each of his last four games, limited to only 56 yards or less in each of those games. He goes up against a Panthers defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers. Kendrick Bourne (11 targets in last two games) and Nelson Agholor (also 11 targets during that stretch) eat into Meyers' workload, making this a situation to avoid in tough, low-scoring matchups like this one.
Sam Darnold (QB, CAR)
Sam Darnold protected the football and helped Carolina win the game last week, but he continued to struggle as a passer, completing only 54.2% of his passes at 5.4 yards per attempt. It's a tough matchup here, as the Patriots just limited Justin Herbert to only 51.4% completion rate at 6.4 yards per attempt. While Darnold continues to provide some rushing production (66 yards last week), there's no way that you can trust him as a streamer against this improving Patriots defense. Darnold might miss this game with a shoulder injury. P.J. Walker could help the running game due to his mobility.
UPDATE: Darnold is officially questionable to play, and was extremely limited at practice.
Other Matchups:
Damien Harris (RB, NE)
Damien Harris has really established himself as the focal point of this offense, rushing for 345 yards and five touchdowns on 69 carries in his last four games. He's ranked as RB16 in PPR points per game during this stretch. However, this is a tough matchup against a Panthers defense allowing the second-fewest PPR points per game to the position. Carolina also ranks 3rd in Rush EPA and 6th in Rush Success Rate. This game has a 41-point total, which is the second-fewest of the week, meaning that points will likely be hard to come by. This caps Harris' upside in this spot, leaving him as a lukewarm RB2 this week.
Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
Hunter Henry had a down game against the Chargers, catching 1-of-3 targets for only 33 yards. This snaps his four-game touchdown streak where he put up 14 receptions for 155 yards. Jonnu Smith was limited to only two receptions for 13 yards, demonstrating that he's clearly the TE2 here. It's tough to get hyped about this matchup considering there's likely to be fewer scoring opportunities with these two defenses, but Carolina is a bit more vulnerable to tight ends, ranking 14th in PPR points per game to the position.
Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR)
The best way to attack this New England defense is on the ground, as they rank 16th in rush EPA and 19th in PPR points per game to the position. This bodes well for McCaffrey, who returned to practice and should be able to play in this game. It's unclear if we'll see him return to a full workload, which is why we need to leave him in the lukewarm section. There's also a chance that P.J. Walker starts, which could impact CMC's usage in the passing game since rushing quarterbacks don't target their running backs as often. Chuba Hubbard might see a few looks as they ease CMC back in, but there's a risk that he doesn't see the field at all. Consider CMC as an RB1, but temper your expectations in his first game back.
UPDATE: McCaffrey is officially listed as questionable, and is not yet on the active roster. Matt Rhule is optimistic he will play, but would be on a snap count. Monitor for news on Saturday.
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
D.J. Moore has really slowed down after a torrid start to the season, catching 20-of-38 targets for 247 yards in his last four games. This is due to Darnold's recent struggles as a passer. The good news is that Moore has averaged over nine targets per game during this stretch. The bad news is that Darnold hasn't shown any signs of snapping out of this funk. What's worse is that he has only attempted 29 passes in the last two weeks. Inefficient passing combined with low volume really caps Moore's upside going forward. Plus, we all know about how Bill Belichick does a great job slowing down his opponent's best weapon. While Moore remains in the lukewarm section due to his talent and target share, I'm not particularly excited about this matchup, even if Walker starts. Robby Anderson has combined for 109 yards in his last six games. He's no longer fantasy-relevant.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Saints -6.5
Implied Total: Falcons (18.0) vs. Saints (24.0)
Pace: Falcons (10th) vs. Saints (18th)
Scheme: Falcons (60% Pass, 40% Rush) vs. Saints (53% Pass, 47% Rush)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 2.3% Pass (24th), -33.1% Rush (31st)
Saints Def. DVOA: -5.8% Pass (5th), -30.3% Rush (2nd)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 28.7% Pass (29th), -4.3% Rush (25th)
Saints Off. DVOA: 24.4% Pass (10th), -14.6% Rush (24th)
Matchups We Love:
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Alvin Kamara should see a healthy target share with Trevor Siemian named as Saints' starter. Atlanta's defense ranks 22nd in PPR points per game to running backs and 25th in rush DVOA. While Kamara only got four targets last week, you have to think that Siemian will feed him going forward. Pocket quarterbacks with limited mobility tend to target their running backs at a higher rate, so this is good news for Kamara. Fire him up as an elite RB1 in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Matt Ryan is coming off a dud against the Panthers where he threw for only 146 yards at 5.4 yards per attempt. He now gets another tough matchup against a Saints defense that ranks 4th in Pass EPA and 4th in EPA per play. New Orleans also ranks 11th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. While Atlanta is likely to be playing from behind in this game, it's tough to trust Ryan while this defense has been playing so well. He's off the streaming radar this week.
Marquez Callaway (WR, NO)
It's hard to know which wideout will find success with Trevor Siemian at quarterback. While Callaway is my preferred option of the group, there is still Deonte Harris (20% target share last week) and Tre'Quan Smith (TD against Bucs). The Falcons also rank 11th in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts, so this isn't exactly an easy matchup. It's best to avoid this situation until we get more clarity. If I had to pick one to start, I'd go with Callaway.
Other Matchups:
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, ATL)
Cordarrelle Patterson gets a bump in value with Calvin Ridley out of the lineup. He's now one of the top options in the offense with Kyle Pitts. This helps Patterson against a Saints defense that ranks 4th in Rush EPA, allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to the position. What also helps him is his high usage in the passing game, as he's caught 32-of-41 targets for 333 yards and five touchdowns this season. This keeps Patterson in the lukewarm section despite the tough matchup. Mike Davis isn't worth starting here unless you're completely desperate at the running back position.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Kyle Pitts had a down game against the Panthers last week, catching 2-of-6 targets for 13 yards. However, the rookie phenom is going to continue to be the top target in this offense, making him a Top-5 option every week. This is a lukewarm matchup against one of the best defenses in the NFL. New Orleans has been really stout against the tight ends, tying for 3rd in PPR points per game to the position. Pitts' volume and overall talent gives him a chance to continue to produce despite the tough matchup, but it's hard to love this spot.
Additional Notes:
Falcons WRs Russell Gage and Tajae Sharpe are in tough matchups, but you could go to them in DFS tournaments.
Saints QB Trevor Siemian isn't fantasy-relevant.
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants
Spread: Raiders -3
Implied Total: Raiders (24.8) vs. Giants (21.8)
Pace: Raiders (21st) vs. Giants (6th)
Scheme: Raiders (62% Pass, 38% Rush) vs. Giants (61% Pass, 39% Rush)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 23.6% Pass (11th), -19.3% Rush (25th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 2.6% Pass (11th), -4.9% Rush (21st)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 11.3% Pass (19th), -16.6% Rush (13th)
Giants Off. DVOA: -3.6% Pass (26th), -25.7% Rush (29th)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Josh Jacobs isn't even on the injury report after leaving early in their Week 7 win over the Eagles. He should be refreshed coming off the bye, just in time to take on a Giants defense that ranks 21st in PPR points per game allowed to running backs. Jacobs has quietly put up 14 targets in his last four games, including two games with five targets. That kind of usage in the passing game could unlock more upside. We can expect Kenyan Drake to fall back to a marginal role in this one. Consider Jacobs to be a rock-solid RB2 with upside.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
Darren Waller is back to full health coming off the bye, so there's a good chance that we can see him approach his ceiling as the focal point of this Raiders offense. The Giants rank 20th in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends. Their defense isn't particularly good, so we can project the Raiders' passing game to have some success in this one. We've seen banged-up players have big weeks coming back refreshed out of the bye and I expect the same to happen with Waller.
Devontae Booker (RB, NYG)
Devontae Booker is seeing bell-cow usage in Saquon Barkley's absence. He played 93.33% of the snaps and got 75% of the carries with an 18.18% target share against the Chiefs last week. While Booker isn't an explosive player by any means, this type of volume keeps him in play as a rock-solid RB2 until Barkley returns. The Raiders defense ranks 22nd in PPR points per game allowed to running backs, so this is a good spot in a projected close game. Booker's floor makes him a highly appealing option.
Matchups We Hate:
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
Daniel Jones hasn't been as intriguing as a fantasy quarterback lately because he's not running as often, combining for only 53 rushing yards in his last four games. His rushing totals were a huge boon to his fantasy value, especially since he's such an erratic passer. This makes me take him out of the circle of trust as a potential streamer. The Raiders rank 12th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, so this isn't exactly an easy matchup for Jones.
Giants WRs
It's tough to really trust any of the Giants wide receivers this week because of how banged up they are. Kenny Golladay returned to practice on Thursday, but how can we really trust him in his first game back from injury? Kadarius Toney has a high weekly ceiling given his ability to make plays after the catch, but he only played 56.67% of the snaps last week. Sterling Shepard looks like he's going to miss this game. The Raiders have also been tough against wideouts this season, allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to the position.
Other Matchups:
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Derek Carr currently ranks as QB14 in fantasy points per game, establishing himself as one of the more underrated passers in fantasy football. He ranks 13th in EPA per play and 2nd with 9.2 air yards. Carr goes up against a Giants defense that ranks 20th in Pass EPA and 20th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Carr is definitely in play as a streamer this week, but you have to wonder how the passing game will be impacted without Henry Ruggs' ability to make big plays downfield.
Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)
Hunter Renfrow has been one of the most undervalued wideouts, particularly in full-PPR formats. He's put up at least five receptions in six of his seven games, including three games with six catches. He's likely to see a bit of a bump in targets without Ruggs. We could also see Bryan Edwards start to emerge now that he'll be the primary deep threat. The Giants rank 22nd in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers, so this is a good spot, but we'll keep them in the lukewarm section given the uncertainty.
Additional Notes:
Giants TE Evan Engram has combined for only 186 yards in six games this season. I'm not interested in him as a streamer.
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -6
Implied Total: Vikings (22.0) vs. Ravens (27.5)
Pace: Vikings (9th) vs. Ravens (30th)
Scheme: Vikings (61% Pass, 39% Rush) vs. Ravens (50% Pass, 50% Rush)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 29.0% Pass (7th), -24.9% Rush (28th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: 16.3% Pass (23rd), -13.9% Rush (15th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: -11.7% Pass (3rd), -7.6% Rush (20th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 22.8% Pass (13th), 0.0% Rush (7th)
Matchups We Love:
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
Dalvin Cook has rushed for 218 yards and a touchdown on 47 carries in his last two games. While he didn't do much against the Cowboys (78 rushing yards), you have to be encouraged by the workload. This is a good matchup against a Ravens defense that ranks 24th in PPR points per game to running backs. It's also a great game environment that could see a ton of points, resulting in several scoring opportunities for Cook. Consider him as one of the top running backs on the slate in this spot.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Justin Jefferson is coming off a dud against the Cowboys, where he was limited to only two receptions for 21 yards. Prior to that, he had combined for 30 receptions for 406 yards and two touchdowns in his previous four games. This is an elite WR1 who should bounce back from a poor performance. Look for Minnesota to try to get him more involved in this projected shootout. The Ravens are allowing 8.5 yards per target to wide receivers. We also saw Ja'Marr Chase go off for eight receptions for 201 yards and a touchdown against this defense.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)
Adam Thielen is in a great spot for the same reasons as Jefferson. The veteran wideout has really come alive lately, combining for 17 receptions, 204 yards, and two touchdowns in his last two games. His 22.52% target share isn't too far off from Jefferson's 24.05% mark, so the veteran remains a high-end WR2 with upside. If the Ravens get out to a double-digit lead and force the Vikings into a pass-heavy game script, we could see another spike week from Thielen. Fire him up with confidence.
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Lamar Jackson takes on a Vikings defense that ranks 5th in dropback EPA, but just allowed Cooper Rush to throw for 325 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday Night Football. Minnesota is allowing 6.31 yards per carry to quarterbacks, which ranks 29th in the NFL. This is a terrific game environment for Jackson to have a spike week. He's averaging a career-high 8.6 yards per attempt, demonstrating significant improvements as a passer. Consider Jackson as the second-best quarterback on the slate behind Josh Allen.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Hollywood Brown simply refuses to slow down, coming off a five-catch, 80-yard game with a 39-yard touchdown against the Bengals. While some were worried that Brown would lose some volume to promising rookie Rashod Bateman, that wasn't the case against Cincinnati, as Brown was targeted 14 times. He currently leads the team with 908 air yards and a 25.11% target share, making him an upside WR2 each and every week. Bateman has looked good so far (7 REC, 109 YDS), putting him on the WR3/4 radar in this potential shootout. You have to like the way the rookie has immediately forced himself into a role. However, we could see Sammy Watkins eat into Bateman's role if the veteran is able to return. Minnesota ranks 27th in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Mark Andrews is putting up elite production at tight end, catching 26-of-41 targets for 439 yards and three touchdowns in his last five games. He now ranks 2nd in PPR PPG among tight ends. The Vikings are allowing the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to tight ends, but that does not concern me when it comes to one of the best players at the position in Andrews. If this turns out to be a shootout like the oddsmakers project, Andrews has overall TE1 upside. Fire him up as a Top-3 option this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Latavius Murray (RB, BAL)
Latavius Murray should be able to return for this game. It's a great matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks 28th in rush EPA this season. However, this is a messy situation with Devonta Freeman (7 opportunities) and Le'Veon Bell (7 opportunities) also getting involved. What if the Ravens limit Murray's workload in his first game back? There's just not enough upside to outweigh this risk, which is why Murray is in the 'Hate' section. Consider him as a touchdown-dependent desperation FLEX in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Kirk Cousins really struggled against the Cowboys, completing 23-of-35 passes for 184 yards and a touchdown. He only averaged 5.3 yards per attempt. However, we have seen Cousins show a high ceiling this year, ranking as QB10 in fantasy points per game. Cousins has three games with 300+ yards and 3+ touchdowns. He goes up against a Ravens defense that ranks 21st in dropback EPA. We could see Cousins forced to air it out as the Vikings try to play catch-up with Lamar and company. I'm willing to go back to the well with Cousins as a streamer in this spot.
Tyler Conklin (TE, BAL)
Tyler Conklin is coming off two solid games, combining for eight receptions and 126 yards. He's played on 83.87% of the snaps with a 15.38% target share during that stretch. Conklin offers streamer appeal at the thinnest position in fantasy football, especially due to the favorable game environment here. The Ravens are have also given up the most PPR points per game to tight ends, including 91 yards and two touchdowns on three receptions to C.J. Uzomah. Conklin looks like a terrific streamer this week.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -2.5
Implied Total: Browns (22.25) vs. Bengals (24.75)
Pace: Browns (29th) vs. Bengals (26th)
Scheme: Browns (49% Pass, 51% Rush) vs. Bengals (59% Pass, 41% Rush)
Browns Off. DVOA: 20.4% Pass (15th), 14.5% Rush (1st)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 8.0% Pass (17th), -17.5% Rush (10th)
Browns Def. DVOA: 20.4% Pass (25th), -27.3% Rush (3rd)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 11.6% Pass (20th), -13.9% Rush (22nd)
Matchups We Love:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
The Bengals are currently tied for 9th in Passing EPA. Joe Burrow ranks as QB9 in fantasy points per game since Week 3. The Browns rank 24th in Passing EPA. They're also 21st in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Browns' cornerback Denzel Ward missed last week with a hamstring injury, keep an eye on his status for this week. His absence would make this an even better matchup for Burrow. It's also worth noting that the Browns' rush defense has been stout, making them a pass-funnel defense. Burrow looks like a great play for Week 9.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Ja'Marr Chase had a down week against the Jets, catching 3-of-9 targets for 32 yards and a touchdown, but he's in a smash spot this week. The Browns have given up big games to Tyreek Hill (11 REC, 197 YDS, 1 TD), Justin Jefferson (6 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD), and Mike Williams (8 REC, 165 YDS, 2 TD) this season. Cleveland ranks 21st in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts this season. Look for Chase to bounce back with a potential blow-up performance against the Browns here.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Tee Higgins delivered last week after we touted him based on high volume, catching 4-of-6 targets for 97 yards against the Jets. He's now racked up 34 targets in four games since returning from injury. Higgins is the clear-cut number two in this offense and this projects as a pass-heavy game script for Cincinnati. You can fire him up as a WR2 with upside in this spot. Tyler Boyd is coming off his best game since Week 4, making him also worth a look if you're desperate at wide receiver, especially since Burrow should be airing it out here.
Matchups We Hate:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Baker Mayfield has been limited by injury and volume this season. He's coming off a game against the Steelers where he threw for 225 yards but with zero touchdowns. This is a tough matchup against a Bengals defense that ranks 8th in Pass EPA and tied for 13th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The good news is that this could turn into a shootout, forcing Mayfield to air it out. Cincinnati is allowing the most pass attempts in the NFL this season. However, it's not really a matchup to get excited about, especially with Mayfield's limited production so far this season. I'd look elsewhere if I needed a streamer.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Joe Mixon provided strong fantasy production against the Jets because he was used in the passing game and found the endzone twice. He wasn't efficient on the ground (14 ATT, 33 YDS), but the passing game usage is encouraging (5 TGT, 4 REC, 58 YDS). Perhaps the team's decision to use Samaje Perine on third downs was just because Mixon was playing hurt. At the same time, the risk is there considering we've seen it happen in the past. This is a tough matchup against a Browns defense that ranks 15th in Rush EPA but 9th in Rush Success Rate. They're allowing only 3.55 yards per carry (T-2nd) with the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to running backs. I expect the Bengals to go pass-heavy in this game.
Other Matchups:
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)
Nick Chubb returned from injury and rushed 61 yards on 16 carries while catching his only target for eight yards. It was disappointing usage considering Kareem Hunt was out for that game. Perhaps the Browns eased Chubb back in coming off an injury, but it's hard to project. There's also risk that the team wants to limit Chubb's touches to keep him fresh and use D'Ernest Johnson in the Hunt role. The Bengals run defense ranks 10th in Rush EPA, allowing only 3.7 yards per carry (7th in NFL). That makes Chubb a lukewarm RB1 in this game.
Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Jarvis Landry has caught 10-of-18 targets for 102 yards in two games since returning from injury. The Bengals are a tough matchup, ranking 8th in Pass EPA, but they're 21st in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers. There's a chance that this turns into a higher scoring game, giving Landry more opportunities to rack up receptions, especially with Odell Beckham Jr. reportedly no longer involved with the team following some drama over a lack of usage.
C.J. Uzomah (TE, CIN)
C.J. Uzomah delivered a dud against the Jets last week, catching all four of his targets for 33 yards. This is the risk when you play him because there are so many mouths to feed in this passing game. Having said that, he plays the thinnest position in fantasy football and has touchdown equity in an efficient passing game. This projects as a pass-heavy game script, so there's a chance that Uzomah provides solid production in this spot. The Browns rank 11th in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends.
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -10
Implied Total: Broncos (19.75) vs. Cowboys (29.75)
Pace: Broncos (31st) vs. Cowboys (3rd)
Scheme: Broncos (58% Pass, 42% Rush) vs. Cowboys (59% Pass, 41% Rush)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 20.5% Pass (14th), -10.1% Rush (17th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -4.8% Pass (7th), -16.9% Rush (11th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 15.3% Pass (21st), -3.9% Rush (27th)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 48.2% Pass (3rd), -6.5% Rush (14th)
Matchups We Love:
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Ezekiel Elliott is RB5 in PPR PPG since Week 2, playing as the lead back in one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. The Broncos rank 23rd in Rush EPA, allowing 4.23 yards per carry (16th in NFL). The Cowboys running game can be successful against any defense with how dominant their offensive line is playing right now. Dallas ranks 1st with 5.19 Adjusted Line Yards. Denver also just traded Von Miller, who has an 83.0 Rush Defense grade on PFF. Look for Zeke to run all over this defense.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
CeeDee Lamb is rolling right now, catching 19-of-25 targets for 345 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games. The Broncos rank 8th in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts, but they've given up big games to Henry Ruggs (3 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD), Chase Claypool (5 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD), and Marquise Brown (4 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD). Their defense has gotten worse with the Von Miller trade, so we can safely fire up Lamb as a Top-10 wideout in this spot. Lamb popped up on the injury report with a sprained ankle, so be sure to monitor his status.
UPDATE: Lamb is officially listed as questionable, but is expected to play.
Matchups We Hate:
Melvin Gordon (RB, DEN)
Melvin Gordon had a big game against Washington last week, putting up 62 total yards and two touchdowns. He continues to split time with Javonte Williams, who continues to show high upside with his elusiveness and ability to break tackles. Dallas ranks 20th in Rushing EPA, but they're tied for the eighth-fewest PPR points per game allowed to running backs. It's likely that Denver will have to air it out in this game, which makes this committee backfield one to avoid this week.
Other Matchups:
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, DEN)
Teddy Bridgewater is on the streaming radar in a game where he'll likely have to air it out and play catch-up to keep pace with Dak and this efficient offense. Dallas ranks 5th in Pass EPA, but they're allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Bridgewater ranks 3rd in combined EPA and CPOE, which suggests that he's been better than his surface stats. Look for an uptick in volume against this Cowboys defense. I'd fire up Bridgewater if you're in need of a quarterback.
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)
Courtland Sutton had a down week with Jerry Jeudy returning to the lineup, 2-of-4 targets for 40 yards against Washington. However, you still have to love his overall usage. Sutton leads the NFL with 1,006 air yards. His 16.2 average depth of target is 2nd among wideouts with at least 40 targets, behind Emmanuel Sanders. The Cowboys are allowing the eighth-most PPR points per game to wideouts. This game projects as a favorable game script for Sutton. Fire up him as a WR2.
Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)
Jerry Jeudy returned to the lineup last week, catching all four of his targets for 39 yards. Jeudy put up a 20.5% air yard share and 16% target share in his first game back. While we'll likely see more usage in his second game back, Tim Patrick is still going to play a bit of a role in this offense, which caps Jeudy's upside because he depends on volume more than Sutton, since his targets are intermediate while Sutton's are downfield. Consider him a boom-or-bust WR3 in this game. Patrick is more of a dart throw in DFS tournaments.
Albert Okwuegbunam (TE, DEN)
Albert Okwuegbunam gets his chance to shine with Noah Fant out with COVID-19 this week. Albert O is an athletic tight end who can make an impact in the red-zone. This is a great game script for him because it's a potential shootout with more passing volume than usual for Denver. The Cowboys rank 22nd in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends, so this is a good spot for Albert O to do some damage. He's firmly on the streaming radar this week.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Dak Prescott looks ready to return to the lineup this week. He's currently QB8 in fantasy points per game, leading one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. Dak goes up against a Broncos defense that ranks 12th in Pass EPA, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, so this isn't the easiest matchup. However, we have seen quarterbacks like Derek Carr (341 yards, 12.6 Y/A) carve up this defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see Dak do the same. Having said that, I'll leave him in the lukewarm section due to the Broncos' ranks against the pass.
Amari Cooper (WR, DAL)
Amari Cooper looked fresh coming out of the bye last week, catching 8-of-13 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings. The Cowboys shouldn't have issues putting up points in this game, which should give Cooper several scoring opportunities here. Michael Gallup has a chance at returning this week, which puts a dent in Cooper's potential ceiling here. Still, you have to like him as a rock-solid WR2 in this game. Whenever Cooper's healthy with Dak on the field, he always produces.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
Dalton Schultz has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, currently ranked as TE8 in PPR points per game. The problem is that the Broncos are allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to tight ends. There's also the possibility that Michael Gallup eats into Schultz's target share going forward, as the tight end really emerged once Gallup was injured. Having said that, we have to leave Schultz in the lukewarm section due to his strong production at a weak position.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -5.5
Implied Total: Texans (19.5) vs. Dolphins (26.0)
Pace: Texans (25th) vs. Dolphins (8th)
Scheme: Texans (55% Pass, 45% Rush) vs. Dolphins (64% Pass, 36% Rush)
Texans Off. DVOA: -11.4% Pass (28th), -39.3% Rush (32nd)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 22.9% Pass (26th), -12.4% Rush (16th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 7.0% Pass (16th), 1.2% Rush (31st)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: -1.0% Pass (25th), -27.4% Rush (30th)
Matchups We Love:
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
You have to be excited for Brandin Cooks because Tyrod Taylor is returning to the lineup this week, making this offense more efficient with more scoring opportunities. Cooks continues to see high volume, coming off a strong performance against the Rams, where he caught all six of his targets for 83 yards and a touchdown. The Dolphins rank 28th in Pass EPA, allowing the second-most PPR points per game to wide receivers. This is a great spot for Cooks.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tua Tagovailoa was limited with a ribs and finger injury in Thursday's practice, but it appears that he'll be fine to play in a smash spot against a Texans defense that ranks 27th in Pass EPA. Houston is tied for 27th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. We've also seen Tua show a nice ceiling this year, putting up games of 22+ and 28+ fantasy points. There's a good chance that we can see another similar performance from Tagovailoa in this spot, making him one of the best streamers of the week.
Dolphins WRs
DeVante Parker has looked solid this season, putting up at least seven targets in each of his five games, including three games with nine or more. Parker caught 8-of-11 targets for 85 yards in his return from injury last week. However, he's now listed as doubtful for this game. That leaves Jaylen Waddle as the top target on the perimeter against a Texans defense allowing 9.6 yards per target to wide receivers (29th). The rookie has three games with double-digit targets, but the only problem is that his upside is limited by his low average depth of target (6.2).
UPDATE: Parker had an injury setback and will not play in Week 9. He's been placed on IR and will miss at least three games.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Mike Gesicki continues to produce as one of the best tight ends in fantasy football. Like we've mentioned here several times, this is a de facto wide receiver who almost never lines up at in-line tight end. Gesicki has three games with 80 or more yards and three games with eight or more targets. The Texans are allowing the fifth-most PPR points per game to tight ends, so this is another smash spot. Fire up Gesicki as one of the top options at the position.
Matchups We Hate:
Texans RBs
It feels like it's a weekly appearance in the 'Hate' section for this Texans' backfield, but that's just how bad it really is. We thought that David Johnson would see more of a role with Mark Ingram II traded to New Orleans, but all that happened was that Rex Burkhead led the team in snaps. This is still a three-man committee, making it a situation to avoid in fantasy football. The matchup really does not matter here.
Other Matchups:
Tyrod Taylor (QB, HOU)
Tyrod Taylor gets a terrific matchup in his return from injury. He looked great before missing time, completing 21-of-33 passes for 291 yards and two touchdowns along with 40 rushing yards back in Week 1 against the Jaguars. The Dolphins are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, making this an exploitable matchup for Taylor. Look for the Texans to be much-improved on offense with their veteran back at the helm.
Myles Gaskin (RB, MIA)
Myles Gaskin has been the model of inconsistency this season. In one game he'll go for 14 total yards, while in another he'll catch all 10 of his targets for 74 yards. This is a great matchup against a Texans defense that ranks 31st in Rush EPA, allowing 5.22 yards per carry (32nd in NFL). The problem is that it's really difficult to predict his usage. Last week, the Dolphins surprisingly gave Patrick Laird 14.49% of the snaps. Salvon Ahmed also had nine opportunities. This keeps Gaskin in the lukewarm section.
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 ET Games
Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Chargers -1.5
Implied Total: Chargers (25.5) vs. Eagles (24.5)
Pace: Chargers (1st) vs. Eagles (2nd)
Scheme: Chargers (64% Pass, 36% Rush) vs. Eagles (57% Pass, 43% Rush)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 16.9% Pass (16th) vs. 1.1% Rush (6th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 4.1% Pass (12th), -4.8% Rush (22nd)
Chargers Def. DVOA: -9.2% Pass (4th), 6.6% Rush (32nd)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 10.8% Pass (21st), 3.1% Rush (4th)
Matchups We Love:
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Austin Ekeler should be healthier after almost missing last week with a hip injury. He's coming off a strong game against the Patriots where he combined for six receptions, 124 total yards, and a touchdown. Ekeler now ranks as RB2 in PPR points per game. You can make a legitimate case for Ekeler as the overall RB1 for the rest of the season. He's in a smash spot against an Eagles defense that ranks 24th in Rush EPA, allowing the second-most PPR points per game to running backs.
Matchups We Hate:
DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)
There's no way we can trust DeVonta Smith right now. The rookie has combined for 15 receptions, 184 yards, and zero touchdowns in his last four games. What's worse is that the Eagles went extremely run-heavy in their blowout win against the Lions last week. There's a decent chance that they go with a similar approach against this run-funnel Chargers defense. Los Angeles is allowing the fewest PPR points per game to wideouts this season. Avoid Smith this week.
Other Matchups:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Justin Herbert is slumping right now, combining for 418 yards (5.65 Y/A) with three touchdowns and three interceptions in his last two games. This is another tough matchup against an Eagles defense that ranks 11th in Pass EPA, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. While there's always a chance that this game can turn into a shootout, we have to leave Herbert in the lukewarm section given his recent performance and tough matchup.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Mike Williams has also slowed down considerably as of late, catching 4-of-10 targets for 46 yards in his last two games. There's a decent chance that this limited production is influenced by his knee injury. Williams takes on an Eagles defense that ranks 3rd in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts, so this is a tough matchup. Having said that, we've seen massive ceilings from Williams this season: 8 REC, 165 YDS, 2 TD; 7 REC, 122 YDS, 2 TD. That keeps him in the lukewarm section.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Keenan Allen showed some signs of life last week, catching 6-of-11 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. He's my preferred play over Williams against the Eagles here, as Allen can rack up underneath targets against this defense. However, Allen has the lower ceiling of the two, as the veteran wideout hasn't gone for over 100 yards since Week 2. Consider Allen as a rock-solid WR2 in this spot, but he stays in the lukewarm section due to the matchup.
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Jalen Hurts had his first fantasy dud of the season last week, completing 9-of-14 passes for 103 yards. The Eagles went run-heavy and it was highly successful. Running backs Boston Scott and Jordan Howard rushed for two touchdowns each, which really ruined Hurts' fantasy day. The good news is that Hurts rushed for 71 yards on seven carries. If the Eagles adopt a run-heavy approach, it's likely that we'll see Hurts run even more. The bad news is that this means that we'll see a decline in passing volume. The Chargers are tough against the pass (9th in Pass EPA), but Hurts can do some damage on the ground, as they rank 32nd in Rush EPA.
Boston Scott (RB, PHI)
Boston Scott really delivered against the Lions last week, rushing 60 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries. It was surprising to see him get so much more work in neutral game scripts than rookie Kenneth Gainwell, who many (including myself) expected to carry the load. Scott is in a smash spot against the worst run defense in football, but it's hard to trust him as anything more than an upside FLEX because of Nick Sirianni's unpredictable playcalling. What if he goes back to Gainwell? What if he gives Jordan Howard more work? Temper your expectations with Scott.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Dallas Goedert was the most productive Eagles' pass-catcher last week, hauling in 6-of-7 targets for 72 yards. He now has the tight end position all to himself with Zach Ertz now in Arizona. Goedert has played 80.6% of the snaps in two games without Ertz. The Chargers are allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to tight ends, so this is a good matchup. However, the issue here is that if the Eagles go run-heavy again, there might not be enough volume for Goedert to get it done. This keeps him in the lukewarm section.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -1.5
Implied Total: Cardinals (22.0) vs. 49ers (23.5)
Pace: Cardinals (14th) vs. 49ers (22nd)
Scheme: Cardinals (55% Pass, 45% Rush) vs. 49ers (52% Pass, 48% Rush)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: 38.5% Pass (4th), -13.9% Rush (23rd)
49ers Def. DVOA: 15.7% Pass (22nd), -19.7% Rush (7th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: -23.0% Pass (2nd), -18.8% Rush (9th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 23.2% Pass (12th), 3.4% Rush (3rd)
Matchups We Love:
Cardinals RBs
Chase Edmonds and James Conner are in a good spot here because Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are banged up. If Murray can play, we could see the Cardinals lean on the run more since he's banged up. Conner has been a touchdown machine, scoring eight times in his last six games. Edmonds is explosive and can make an impact in the passing game. He's averaged 15 opportunities per game in his last two, so his arrow is pointing upwards. The 49ers are allowing the 11th-fewest PPR points per game to running backs, but I'm betting on potential volume here.
Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF)
Elijah Mitchell has been dominating usage in this backfield, combining for 244 yards and two touchdowns on 36 carries in his last two games. While he's essentially a zero in the passing game, this type of efficiency in a run-friendly offense is valuable. Mitchell is an upside RB2 against a Cardinals defense that ranks 5th in Rush EPA but is allowing 4.71 yards per carry (29th in NFL). Look for the 49ers to lean on Mitchell in this tough divisional game.
Matchups We Hate:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Kyler Murray has missed practice this entire week, putting his status in question for this game. Murray is ranked as QB11 in fantasy points per game since Week 3. Murray is dealing with a sprained ankle, so even if he plays, you have to think that he'll be limited to the pocket. This makes him worth benching here. It's just too tough to take the risk on re-injury, especially with how Murray is struggling with fantasy production lately. Quarterback is such a deep position, so you should have a multitude of alternatives available, unless you're in a SuperFlex league, in which case you need to start Murray.
UPDATE: It looks like Kyler Murray will be missing this game.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
DeAndre Hopkins has also missed practice for the entire week, as he's nursing a hamstring injury. We saw Hopkins have to leave the Packers game last Thursday, so there's a clear risk of re-injury, making him a volatile start in this spot. San Francisco is allowing the ninth-fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers, so this isn't an easy matchup. If Hopkins is able to suit up, there's also risk that he's used as a decoy. I'd look elsewhere this week.
UPDATE: DeAndre Hopkins looks likely OUT for this week.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)
Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off his best game of the season, completing 17-of-28 passes for 322 yards while rushing for two touchdowns. The problem is that this Cardinals defense is very good, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Garoppolo might also be without his top target in Deebo Samuel, who is currently dealing with a calf injury. While George Kittle is expected to return, it's hard to roll with Garoppolo as a streamer against this tough defense.
Other Matchups:
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Christian Kirk could be in line for an uptick in usage with DeAndre Hopkins limited with injury and A.J. Green out with COVID-19. We could also see Rondale Moore get more work. The issue is that Kyler Murray has a chance to miss this game and if he plays, it's likely that he'll be limited. This is the only reason why Kirk and Moore are in the lukewarm section because you have to love the fact that they could be thrust into a more prominent role.
Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)
Zach Ertz is off to a great start with the Cardinals, catching 7-of-9 targets for 108 yards and a touchdown in two games. He goes up against a 49ers defense that is allowing the 10th-fewest PPR points per game to tight ends, but the potential uptick in volume keeps him in the lukewarm section, especially at the thin tight end position. Hopefully, Murray can play because that would allow Ertz to become an appealing streamer in this spot.
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
Deebo Samuel has been an absolute monster this season, catching 44-of-72 targets for 819 yards and four touchdowns in seven games. It's been surprising to see how dominant he's been, considering that many (including myself) thought that Brandon Aiyuk would be the top wideout in this offense. Samuel's status is in doubt because of a calf injury, which means that Aiyuk could see an uptick in targets. The Cardinals rank 14th in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers. Keep an eye on Deebo's status for this one. We'll keep these wideouts in the lukewarm section for the time being.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
George Kittle is finally ready to return to the lineup after missing the last three games. He isn't on the injury report, so perhaps he'll be able to get a full workload, especially if Deebo is out for this game. If that's the case, Kittle would move to the 'Love' section because he'd become the clear-cut top target for San Francisco. The Cardinals are allowing the fewest PPR points per game to tight ends, but Kittle is too talented to bench despite the tough matchup.
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -7.5
Implied Total: Packers (20.75) vs. Chiefs (27.75)
Pace: Packers (32nd) vs. Chiefs (7th)
Scheme: Packers (57% Pass, 43% Rush) vs. Chiefs (60% Pass, 40% Rush)
Packers Off. DVOA: 31.9% Pass (6th), -4.5% Rush (11th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: 29.7% Pass (30th), -2.5% Rush (29th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 8.1% Pass (18th), -2.1% Rush (30th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 25.5% Pass (9th), 2.0% Rush (5th)
Matchups We Love:
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Aaron Jones saw heavy usage with Davante Adams out of the lineup last week, especially in the passing game, where he caught 7-of-11 targets for 51 yards. You have to think we'll see a similar situation this week, with Jordan Love making his first career start. The Chiefs rank 29th in Rush EPA, so this is a fantastic spot. You'll likely see the Packers go more run-heavy in this one, putting A.J. Dillon in play as an upside FLEX in this spot. Dillon looked great last week, rushing 16 times for 78 yards against the Cardinals.
Darrel Williams (RB, KC)
Darrel Williams lost some work to Derrick Gore last week, but the veteran still saw some promising usage, totaling 19 opportunities, including six receptions for 61 yards. The Packers are weak on the ground, ranking 27th in Rush EPA. You'll likely see Williams continue to rack up check-down receptions with the way that the Chiefs are struggling to make big plays downfield. This makes him an upside RB2 in this spot, even with Gore stealing some touches.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Tyreek Hill is the clear target hog for Kansas City right now given their struggles on offense. He's averaged an absurd 12.8 targets per game in his last five games. While he hasn't been able to get loose downfield because opposing defenses are taking away the deep ball, he's ranked as overall WR1 in PPR points per game during this stretch. The Packers rank 13th in Pass EPA, but they're not the same pass defense without top cornerback Jaire Alexander.
Matchups We Hate:
Packers WRs
There's no way that you can trust Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard, or Marquez Valdes-Scantling in this game with Jordan Love at quarterback. We can safely project the usage to be funneled towards Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and A.J. Dillon. If I'm betting on one of these players, it would have to be MVS because of his ability to make explosive plays downfield. There simply won't be enough volume for Cobb because of his low average target depth and it's just too tough to trust Lazard.
Other Matchups:
Jordan Love (QB, GB)
Jordan Love makes his NFL debut in a great matchup against a Chiefs defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. He's an athletic quarterback with a strong arm and the ability to add some rushing production. Love is worth a look as a desperation streamer, but temper your expectations because it's tough to say how he'll perform in his debut. I'm leaving him in the lukewarm section. He's a great play in DFS because of his cheap price.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Davante Adams returns from COVID to catch passes from Love, putting a bit more uncertainty in his outlook here. While we're likely to see Adams continue to get peppered with targets, it's unclear how the Packers' passing offense will look. If Green Bay goes more run-heavy than usual, that could be concerning for Adams, especially since they play at such a slow pace. While I'm still considering Adams as a WR1 against a Chiefs defense that ranks 7th in PPR points per game to wideouts, I have to put him in the lukewarm section.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Patrick Mahomes is currently playing the worst football of his career, averaging fewer than six yards per attempt in four of his last six games. This offense is just totally out of sync right now, struggling to move the ball at times against the New York Giants. Green Bay is tied for 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, so this is an exploitable matchup. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Packers have success on the ground and keep Mahomes off the field, which is dangerous because of their slow pace. This keeps Mahomes in the lukewarm section.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Travis Kelce is slumping right now, combining for 29 receptions for 271 yards and one touchdown in his last five games, ranking as TE6 in PPR points per game since Week 4. That's simply not good enough for a player that was drafted in the first round. While Kelce has the ability to blow up at any time, I'm going to leave him in the lukewarm section against a Packers defense that could limit overall volume with their slow pace in this game. While I still have Kelce ranked as TE1, I'm not as excited about him as I was earlier in the year.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Rams -7.5
Implied Total: Titans (23.5) vs. Rams (30.5)
Pace: Titans (16th) vs. Rams (11th)
Scheme: Titans (54% Pass, 46% Rush) vs. Rams (63% Pass, 37% Rush)
Titans Off. DVOA: 12.4% Pass (18th), -2.4% Rush (9th)
Rams Def. DVOA: -4.4% Pass (8th), -11.3% Rush (18th)
Titans Def. DVOA: 5.8% Pass (14th), -3.5% Rush (28th)
Rams Off. DVOA: 56.9% Pass (1st), -3.2% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love:
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
A.J. Brown is rolling right now, combining for 25 receptions, 379 yards, and two touchdowns in his last three games. Derrick Henry is now out for a while, if not the entire season, so that leaves Brown as the new focal point of this Titans offense. While Tennessee will likely continue to run at a relatively high rate, you have to think that we see an uptick in passing volume, which bodes well for Brown. Julio Jones is also nursing a hamstring injury. If he's out for another game, we could see Brown absolutely peppered with targets. Even if Jones plays, there's likely to be significant volume headed Brown's way. The Rams rank 7th in Pass EPA and just added pass-rusher Von Miller, but I'm betting on volume and talent over matchup with Brown here. If Julio plays, consider him as a volatile WR3.
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level, ranking 1st in both EPA and Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE). He also ranks 5th in air yards, demonstrating a willingness to continue to throw the ball downfield. This is a good matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 15th in Pass EPA, tied for 27th in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers. Stafford could have had a bigger day against Houston last week if it weren't a blowout. If the Titans can keep this game within three scores, Stafford can hit his ceiling in this spot.
Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB, LAR)
Darrell Henderson Jr. is coming off a bounce-back game against the Texans, where he rushed 14 times for 90 yards and a touchdown, adding another touchdown through the air on his only catch for three yards. This is a legitimate RB1 who is receiving a strong workload in an elite offense. There are going to be several scoring opportunities for Henderson, as well as positive game scripts. Henderson gets another favorable game script with the Rams projected to win this game by more than a touchdown. Tennessee ranks 26th in Rush EPA, so this is a great matchup.
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Cooper Kupp is on another planet this season. He's put up double-digit targets in seven of eight games, eclipsing 100 yards in three straight while scoring five touchdowns during that span. The Titans are another great matchup, as they rank 32nd in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers. Stafford and Kupp have established themselves as the top duo in the NFL this season. The only thing that has slowed them down has been blowout game scripts where the Rams don't need to air it out anymore. Fire him Kupp as an elite WR1.
Matchups We Hate:
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Ryan Tannehill is in a tough spot against a Rams defense that just added edge rusher Von Miller. It's unclear how the loss of Derrick Henry will affect Tannehill as a passer. While we're likely to see an uptick in passing volume, it's tough to trust him in his first game without Henry against a tough defense. There's also the chance that the Titans stubbornly cling to the running game despite a significant downgrade in talent. Look elsewhere at quarterback this week.
Adrian Peterson (RB, TEN)
Adrian Peterson figures to carry the load on early downs in Derrick Henry's absence. Jeremy McNichols should monopolize touches in the passing game. Peterson showed that he still has a bit of juice left in the tank last season, rushing for 604 yards and seven touchdowns with the Lions. The problem here is that the Rams added Von Miller, which should help a run defense that ranks 21st in Rush EPA. It's also unclear how many touches Peterson will get in his first game. While I prefer Peterson for the rest of the season, this looks more like a McNichols game. He could rack up catches while the Titans play from behind. However, I'd rather steer clear of this backfield this week.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
It really doesn't seem like it's happening for Higbee this season, even in a solid role in an elite offense. The veteran tight end has put up 40 yards or fewer in five of his last seven games. There are simply too many mouths to feed in this offense for Higbee to make much of an impact. While he's still worth considering given the positional scarcity at tight end, it might be time to look for alternative streamers. The Titans have been stout against tight ends, tied for 6th in PPR points per game allowed to the position.
Other Matchups:
Robert Woods (WR, LAR)
Robert Woods has picked up his play of late, combining for 23 receptions, 306 yards, and two touchdowns while ranking as WR15 in PPR PPG since Week 5. He also rushed three times for 22 yards and a touchdown last week. Woods can be considered as a rock-solid WR2 in this strong matchup, but I have to leave him in the lukewarm section because he's clearly behind Cooper Kupp. There's also Van Jefferson, who caught 3-of-6 targets for 88 yards last week. Jefferson has combined for 13 targets in the last two weeks. With DeSean Jackson now off the team, there's a chance that we see more usage from Jefferson. That makes him one of my favorite waiver adds this week. Consider Jefferson as a boom-or-bust WR3 with upside this week.
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