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We're officially back RotoBallers! Welcome to our Week 1 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. Each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
Frank Ammirante will start off by covering the first set of games that begin at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, and Justin Carter will take you home with his analysis of the late afternoon and evening games. Getting off to a strong start is key, so we're going to guide you to that Week 1 victory!
If you have any additional lineup questions, follow us on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and @juscarts and feel free to ask away! Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Eagles at Washington
Matchups We Love:
Zach Ertz (TE, PHI)
Zach Ertz goes up against a Washington defense that allowed 14.2 PPR points per game against tight ends last season, ranking 28th in the NFL. Washington's linebackers are mediocre: Jon Bostic, Shaun Dion Hamilton, and Kevin Pierre-Louis are nothing to worry about. In his last seven games vs. Washington, Ertz has averaged 8.1 targets, 6.4 receptions, 72.4 yards, and 0.3 touchdowns per game. Washington has a nasty front-seven that consists of five former first-rounders including rookie Chase Young, which could pose a problem for a banged-up Eagles' o-line. This could force Carson Wentz to get rid of the ball quickly, in which case Ertz would be his primary target. Ertz has a legitimate chance at a Top-3 finish at tight end for Week 1.
Matchups We Hate:
Dwayne Haskins (QB, WAS)
If you're considering starting Dwayne Haskins in Week 1, then you have major problems on your fantasy team. Even in Superflex leagues, Haskins is one of the worst options at the deepest position in fantasy football, so you need to take a wait-and-see approach with this sophomore quarterback until he shows some positive signs. While the Eagles ranked 14th with 21.1 fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, they have added cornerback Darius Slay to help address their issues in the secondary. Haskins is an obvious avoid for Week 1.
Steven Sims Jr. (WR, WAS)
Steven Sims Jr. garnered some offseason buzz for his strong finish to his rookie campaign that saw him post 36 targets, 20 receptions, 239 yards, and four touchdowns in his last four games, but he remains a bench stash until we see his role in the offensive scheme implemented by new offensive coordinator Scott Turner. I wouldn't even start Sims as a punt-play in DFS tournaments because of this uncertainty.
Antonio Gibson & J.D. McKissic (RB, WAS)
I'm bullish on Antonio Gibson's season-long outlook, but it's probably best to leave him on your bench for Week 1 after news that J.D. McKissic is listed as starting running back on the team's depth chart. McKissic is not worth starting either because he's merely a pass-catching specialist who will be splitting with Gibson. The Eagles allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs last season, so this is a tough matchup. Let's wait to see how Washington uses their backs before considering starting Gibson or McKissic.
Other Matchups:
Carson Wentz (QB, PHI)
Carson Wentz faces a weak secondary that ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks last season, but pass-protection concerns with a depleted o-line against a ferocious pass-rush makes him a lukewarm play for Week 1. Expect Wentz to check it down to Ertz and Sanders often in this one. He's still a QB1, but I would consider him on the bottom end of that spectrum for Week 1.
Boston Scott (RB, PHI)
Boston Scott takes over for the injured Miles Sanders, which has fantasy players excited. Scott put up 340 total yards in four games when he received nine or more touches. While some believe that he's easily an RB2 this week, I view him as more of a flex play because I believe he'll be splitting time with Corey Clement, who was injured last season. Temper your expectations for Scott in this one.
DeSean Jackson (WR, PHI)
DeSean Jackson has a great matchup against a group of corners that includes Kendall Fuller and Ronald Darby, but the Eagles' o-line issues could make it difficult for Wentz to have adequate time to find Jackson deep. Jackson is more of a lukewarm option due to pass-protection concerns. Jackson looks like a decent WR3, but I wouldn't suggest playing him over superior players with weaker matchups on paper. He'll likely be highly-rostered in DFS, so he looks like a clear fade in those formats.
Jalen Reagor (WR, PHI)
Jalen Reagor was a full participant in Thursday's practice, so there's a decent chance that he defies the odds and suits up for the Eagles in Week 1 after originally expected to be out until Week 2 at the earliest. Reagor looked great in Eagles camp and has a clear path to targets with only DeSean Jackson as a real threat on the perimeter. Taking a wait-and-see approach with the rookie is the more prudent approach, especially if Doug Pederson limits Reagor's snaps.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Like Ertz, Dallas Goedert has a prime matchup, but as the team's clear-cut number-two tight end, he's not a play that I love. Goedert is more of a high-end TE2 whenever Ertz is on the field. He could be an interesting pivot if you want to exploit Washington's weakness against tight ends in DFS, as he'll have a lower roster percentage than Ertz.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
Terry McLaurin caused problems for the Eagles last season, posting a combined 16 targets, 10 receptions, 255 yards, and two touchdowns in two games, but he'll likely be shadowed by cornerback Darius Slay in this one, so it's a tougher matchup than last year. With that said, I still think that he's a mid-range WR2 in this game, it's just that he's not a slam-dunk pick that I'd be playing in DFS formats.
Seahawks at Falcons
Matchups We Love:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Wilson is one of my favorite quarterback plays on the slate and a clear-cut top-three option against a Falcons Defense that ranked 25th in fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season. This projects to be a close game (Seahawks favored by two points) and shootout (49-point total), so we could see Wilson erupt here. Many observers have advocated for the Seahawks' coaching staff to allow Russ to air it out, since the team sought to establish the run too often. This is the perfect matchup to start the transition from a run-heavy offense into an aggressive, aerial attack. Start Wilson with confidence in both season-long and DFS formats.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
Metcalf really came on in the second half of his rookie season, posting 69 targets, 46 receptions, 717 yards, and four touchdowns in his final ten games (includes playoffs). At 6'4, 229-lbs with 4.33 speed, Metcalf is a mismatch for any secondary, particularly the Falcons, who are starting rookie A.J. Terrell and Isaiah Oliver at cornerback. The Falcons ranked 17th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers last season. Fire up Metcalf in both season-long and DFS formats as a high-end WR2.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
While Metcalf is the flashier option with his size, speed, and athleticism, Tyler Lockett has fantastic chemistry with Russ and we can expect more strong production out of the sixth-year wideout out of Kansas State. Lockett should have no problem feasting in the slot against this porous Falcons secondary. Like Metcalf, he's another high-end WR2 in this game and I would seriously consider pairing both Seahawks' wide receivers with Wilson in both cash and tournament DFS contests.
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Matt Ryan remains a high-floor option as your fantasy quarterback, but this looks like a potential ceiling game in this shootout against the Seahawks. Seattle ranked 17th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks last season. While they've added stud safety Jamal Adams to their secondary, he excels more in the run game. Ryan is going to have to keep pace with Wilson by airing it out here, so he's firmly in play as a mid-range QB1.
Julio Jones (WR, ATL)
Julio Jones is always in play as an every-week WR1, but his outlook looks even better in this likely shootout. The Seahawks ranked 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers last year. Julio also put up better numbers at home last season, where his yardage output increased by 12 in one less game, along with a 15.6 yards per reception compared to a 12.8 Y/R on the road. If you decide to stack the Seahawks in DFS, I would strongly recommend adding Julio as the opposing wide receiver option to get more action on a game that should feature a ton of fireworks.
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)
Calvin Ridley was everyone's favorite breakout target at wide receiver this offseason after putting up 93 targets, 63 receptions, 866 yards, and seven touchdowns in 13 games last season. The Falcons are very thin at wide receiver, so we'll likely see both Julio and Ridley get peppered with targets. As the number-two receiver, Ridley will get to avoid Shaquill Griffin, the top corner on the Seahawks. He has a real chance at starting his breakout season with a bang here. Consider Ridley an elite WR2 vs. Seattle.
Hayden Hurst (TE, ATL)
The Falcons gave up a second and fifth-round pick in exchange for Hayden Hurst and a fourth-rounder, so it's clear that they believe that he has what it takes to replace the departing Austin Hooper. Hooper leaves behind 97 vacated targets (in only 13 games), so there's real opportunity for Hurst to thrive in Atlanta. The Seahawks allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends last season, so you need to make sure Hurst is in your lineup for Week 1.
Matchups We Hate:
Greg Olsen & Will Dissly (TE, SEA)
The Seahawks have a crowded tight end room that includes Greg Olsen, Will Dissly, Jacob Hollister, and Luke Willson. It's likely that Olsen and Dissly will eat into each other's target share, making this a situation to avoid in fantasy. Each of these players will be touchdown-dependent and in a year where tight end is deep, you need to leave Olsen and Dissly on the waiver wire.
Other Matchups:
Chris Carson (RB, SEA)
Chris Carson has been a bell-cow for the past two years, receiving a combined 525 rushing attempts during that span, but the Seahawks plan to scale back his workload this season. They signed veteran running back Carlos Hyde, who has a redundant skillset to Carson as a between-the-tackles runner with limitations in the passing game. We could also see the Seahawks move to a more pass-heavy approach with their star quarterback and receiver duo. Carson takes on a Falcons defense that ranked 11th in fantasy points allowed to running backs last season. He's more of a mid-range RB2 in this shootout game. I wouldn't consider him in DFS.
Todd Gurley (RB, ATL)
It's hard to trust Todd Gurley with his knee issues, but he's in a good spot for a touchdown in this shootout. I think that the days of 80+ targets are gone for Gurley and we'll see his value derived from rushing volume. While you're obviously starting him as your RB2 given the draft capital it took to select him, Gurley is more of a mid-range option that I would avoid in DFS. The Seahawks ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to running backs last season, but I expect the Falcons to move the football through the air.
Browns at Ravens
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Lamar Jackson is an elite QB1 every single week because of his absurd rushing ability. In two games against the Browns last season, he ran for a combined 169 yards while also throwing for 485 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. While he's headed for negative touchdown regression - his 9% TD rate was the second-highest total all-time among passers with at least 400 attempts - this will be mitigated by a likely increase in pass attempts. The Browns ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last season.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Mark Andrews broke out for 64 receptions, 852 yards, and 10 touchdowns in 15 games last season. We can project a bump in his 98 targets with the departure of Hayden Hurst and likely increase in team passing volume. Andrews goes up against a Browns Defense that allowed 11th-most points to tight ends last season. As Lamar's favorite target, Andrews is a high-end TE1 that should get off to a good start here.
Matchups We Hate:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Baker Mayfield should see improvement in his overall efficiency with the Browns' upgraded offensive line and coaching staff. New head coach Kevin Stefanski is likely to implement a run-heavy scheme that will help mitigate Baker's turnover issues. I just don't see enough passing volume for Mayfield to excel as a fantasy quarterback - last season, when Stefanski was with the Vikings, Kirk Cousins attempted only 444 passes, which was 90 less than Mayfield. Expect Mayfield to be in tough against a Ravens Defense that allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last season.
Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE)
Kareem Hunt is likely to play the James White role as a pass-catching back for the Browns. It remains to be seen how many carries he'll get in this offense, so this looks like a good matchup to leave him on the bench or avoid him in your DFS lineups. The Ravens allowed only 79 targets to opposing running backs last season, which was the fewest in the league. This does not bode well for Hunt's outlook in this one.
Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
It's tough to be bullish on a WR2 that spent most of his offseason rehabbing a hip injury, playing for a team that is transitioning to a more run-heavy approach, now facing a division rival that ranked 13th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Newly signed tight end Austin Hooper will also eat into Jarvis Landry's target share, so this is a player to avoid, especially against such a good Ravens defense.
Austin Hooper (TE, CLE)
Austin Hooper should be avoided in his Browns debut as we wait-and-see how he fits in Stefanski's offense. I expect him to eat into Landry's target share and become the number-two option in this passing game, but it's tough to rely on Hooper in this game. The Ravens defense is one of the best in the NFL against tight ends, allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position last year.
Other Matchups:
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)
While Kareem Hunt will eat into Nick Chubb's rushing upside, this is still one of the best pure runners in the NFL. He now plays for a team with a much-improved offensive line and for a head coach who has had success with the running game. The Browns will likely look to establish the run this season, which bodes well for Chubb. Last time these two teams faced off in Baltimore, Chubb ran for 165 yards and three touchdowns on only 20 attempts. The Ravens are stout against the run (4th-fewest points to running backs last season), so that makes Chubb on the RB1/2 fringe for this one as a lukewarm play.
Odell Beckham Jr. (RB, CLE)
The Ravens' pass defense is among the best in the NFL, allowing only 6.1 yards per attempt last season, which ranked 4th in the NFL, but Beckham is among the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, so we have to leave him here as a lukewarm play. You have to think that the former Giants' star is motivated to bounce-back coming off a disappointing debut season in Cleveland, so OBJ remains a mid-range WR2 despite the tough matchup.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Marquise Brown is fully healthy this season after playing his rookie campaign with a screw in his foot due to a Lisfranc injury, so we could see a breakout sophomore year. It also bodes well that the Ravens figure to pass more, since it's unlikely that they'll be blowing out teams as often as they did last year. Brown goes up against a Browns' defense that allowed the 9th-fewest points to wide receivers last year, so he's not a player that I love for Week 1, but he still looks like a solid WR3/flex play.
Mark Ingram & J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL)
This looks like a situation to avoid until we see how the Ravens allocate snaps to their running backs. Obviously Mark Ingram had a high draft capital, so you're starting him as a mid-range RB2 in season-long leagues, but we need to avoid him in DFS. Dobbins begins the season as fourth on the depth chart, but take that with a grain of salt, as he still should see some volume in Week 1. If one of these backs were to miss time, they would be firmly on the RB1 radar. For now, they're lukewarm plays against a Browns defense that tied for 23rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs last season.
Jets at Bills
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Josh Allen comes in the season with the best weapons of his career after the acquisition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs and selection of rookie running back Zack Moss. He takes on a depleted Jets Defense that traded their best player in safety Jamal Adams, while also losing linebacker C.J. Mosley to an opt-out. The Jets are trotting out Blessuan Austin (71.4 PFF grade) and Pierre Desir (58.8 PFF grade) at corner, so Allen will have a chance to connect on deep shots to his two stud downfield threats.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Stefon Diggs would be a slam-dunk pick if there weren't any concerns about his adjustment to a new team and offense, but I still love him against this depleted Jets' defense. Diggs looks like a solid WR2 against a Jets defense that ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers last season. He's firmly in play in both cash and tournaments on DFS, as perhaps players might shy away from him in his first game with a new team.
John Brown (WR, BUF)
John Brown was an absolute stud in his first season with Buffalo, posting 72 receptions for 1,060 yards and six touchdowns. While Diggs is going to eat into Brown's target share, this is still a solid receiver who has an established rapport with Josh Allen. There's a legit chance that Brown outscores Diggs, at least in the early stages of the season. I love both Bills receivers in this matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Sam Darnold (QB, NYJ)
Sam Darnold is only worth using as a streamer in Superflex leagues or a punt play in DFS tournaments to begin with, so he's an easy avoid against a nasty Bills Defense that allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season. Don't even think about using Darnold here, even in a 15-team Superflex league.
Breshad Perriman (WR, NYJ)
Breshad Perriman says he's 100% recovered from a knee injury, but there's always the risk that the Jets scale back the workload of their new receiver. That said, even if this wasn't a factor, Perriman would still be a clear avoid against cornerback Tre'Davious White and this Bills' pass defense.
Chris Herndon (TE, NYJ)
Chris Herndon has generated a lot of buzz over the last month, but this is not a good spot for him. The Bills allowed the second-fewest points to opposing tight ends last season. The Jets are really going to struggle moving the ball in this one and we could see Herndon stay back to block to help counter this Bills' pass rush. Leave Herndon on your bench here in an avoidable matchup.
Other Matchups:
Le'Veon Bell (RB, NYJ)
Le'Veon Bell is still a lukewarm play here despite the tough matchup because we could see him get a bunch of checkdown passes from Darnold as the Jets struggle to dink and dunk down the field. The Bills allowed the ninth-most targets to running backs last season, so this could be a point of emphasis for the Jets as they battle to score points against this tough defense.
Jamison Crowder (WR, NYJ)
Like Bell, Jamison Crowder could receive a bunch of checkdown targets as Darnold tries to get rid of the ball quickly. The risk here is that Crowder is a bit banged up with a hamstring injury, but the Jets really need him so it's tough to see his workload scaled back too much. Crowder is firmly in play as a low-end WR3 in PPR formats because he's likely to see some volume as the Jets play catch-up.
Devin Singletary & Zack Moss (RB, BUF)
This is a situation to monitor to see the way the Bills deploy their running back duo. There were reports in camp that stated that Singletary was falling out of favor with the coaching staff due to fumbling issues. We also don't know exactly how much Moss will be used. They remain lukewarm plays because of the positive game script in a potential blowout, but it's hard to play them in DFS while the picture remains muddled.
Raiders at Panthers
Matchups We Love:
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Josh Jacobs is in a smash-spot against a Panthers Defense that tied for most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs last season. Since then, they've lost linebacker Luke Keuchly to retirement as well as defensive linemen Mario Addison and Gerald McCoy to free agency. This projects to be one of the worst defenses in football and there's a legit chance for a Jacobs eruption here. He's an elite RB1 in Week 1 and my favorite DFS play at running back this week.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR)
Teddy Bridgewater joins an uptempo offense with new offensive coordinator Joe Brady calling the plays. Bridgewater has a stacked group of pass-catchers at his disposal, including studs like Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. This game has the potential to become a shootout, as evidenced by its 47-point game total. Bridgewater takes on a Raiders defense that ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last season. He's a great streamer in season-long leagues and worth a look in both DFS cash games and tournaments.
Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR)
Christian McCaffrey is an every-week elite RB1, but this is a terrific spot against a Raiders defense that ranked 26th in receiving yards allowing to opposing running backs last season. While the Raiders improved their linebackers with the addition of Cory Littleton, they're still going to have their hands full with McCaffrey. Expect CMC to pick up right where he left off last season in this prime matchup.
D.J. Moore (RB, CAR)
D.J. Moore (11.2 aDOT) now has a quarterback that aligns perfectly with his skillset - Bridgewater (6.0 average target depth) should pepper Moore with targets in the short-to-intermediate passing game. Moore goes up against a Raiders defense that ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to receivers, so this is a great matchup in a potential shootout.
Other Matchups:
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
You could argue that the additions of Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards will eat into Waller's target share, but you could also make the case that their talent and speed will open up room for Waller to work the middle of the field. Either way, he remains a top-8 tight end, but this is not a great matchup. The Panthers allowed the 5th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends last season. Luke Keuchly is gone, but Shaq Thompson is also good in pass coverage, so it's possible that the Panthers will remain stout against tight ends.
Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards (WR, LV)
I really like the talent of both of these receivers and expect both to emerge as the premier wide receivers on the team, but it's tough to see which one of them will burst loose against this weak Panthers defense that lost their top corner James Bradberry to free agency. The Panthers ranked 25th in points allowed to receivers last season, so it's a great matchup. I love playing one of these receivers in DFS tournaments as a punt play. For season-long leagues, you can take the shot if you're in a deeper format, otherwise, I'd take a wait-and-see approach.
Ian Thomas (TE, CAR)
Ian Thomas takes over the starting tight end position and has a chance for some volume with touchdown upside in this one, facing a Raiders defense that tied for 24th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends last season. Since I expect this to be a shootout, Thomas is on the radar as an upside TE2 and potential DFS tournament punt play.
Curtis Samuel & Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
Both of these receivers have a great matchup, but I expect the targets to be funneled towards D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey. It's also tough to see which one of these two will breakout because we need to see how Joe Brady deploys his receivers. Each of these wideouts is worth a look as a tournament punt play in DFS, but beyond that, I'd leave them on the bench as WR4s.
Bears at Lions
Matchups We Love:
Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)
Allen Robinson is in a smash-spot against a Lions secondary that replaced stud corner Darius Slay with promising rookie Jeffrey Okudah, who is OUT for this game. Robinson put up a combined 14 receptions for 172 yards and one touchdown in two games against the Lions last year. The Lions allowed the second-most points to receivers last season, so we could see more of the same for Robinson here.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
T.J. Hockenson is one of the most talented tight ends in football and we all know how it takes time for players at this position to reach their potential. We could see a nice bump in production for Hock in his sophomore season. He takes on a Bears Defense that struggled against tight ends last season, ranking 23rd in fantasy points per game allowed. Hock is in line for more targets due to Kenny Golladay's absence.
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, DET)
Marvin Jones takes over as the team's top receiving option with the injury to Kenny Golladay. Jones will see a bump in volume and now becomes an upside WR2. While the Bears have a solid defense, Matthew Stafford will be forced to pepper Jones with targets, so the volume outweighs the tough matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Adrian Peterson & D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
The signing of Adrian Peterson made this running back situation even more of a mess, especially from D'Andre Swift's perspective. It's unclear how much Peterson will be used, so he's an easy bench, even in the deepest of leagues. The same goes for the talented rookie, as Swift has missed significant time during camp, so his snaps will likely be reduced. Don't even consider playing these players in any format for Week 1.
Other Matchups:
Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI)
Mitch Trubisky surprisingly won the starting job over Nick Foles. He's an intriguing option in Superflex leagues and as a DFS tournament play due to his rushing upside. The Lions allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last year, so there's a legit chance that Trubisky turns in a strong effort here.
Anthony Miller (WR, CHI)
Anthony Miller came on strong at the end of last season, posting two 100-yard games in his last five, including nine receptions for 140 yards against the Lions. He's not a matchup that we love because this is still Mitch Trubisky at quarterback and it's an offense that can't really sustain two productive receivers in the same game. Still, Miller is a solid WR4 and decent option in DFS tournaments.
David Montgomery & Tarik Cohen (RB, CHI)
David Montgomery is suiting up despite a groin injury, so we could see his snaps limited, so expect more touches than usual for Tarik Cohen. This is still a prime matchup though, so they remain lukewarm plays against a Lions Defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points as well as the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs last season.
Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)
Matthew Stafford was tearing up the league last year before a season-ending back injury, averaging the fifth-most fantasy points per game among quarterbacks. He takes on a Bears Defense that allowed the sixth-fewest points to fantasy quarterbacks, so this is a tough matchup, especially if Kenny Golladay was out. Still, Stafford is a fringe starter and lukewarm play here because of his sheer talent and passing volume.
Kerryon Johnson (RB, DET)
Kerryon Johnson appears to be the most likely option to carry the load in the Lions backfield, as Peterson was just signed and Swift has been banged up. He goes up against a Bears defense that was average against the run last season, so his potential volume puts him in play as a decent flex for Week 1.
Colts at Jaguars
Matchups We Love:
T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)
T.Y. Hilton gets an upgrade at quarterback with the arrival of Philip Rivers. He has a smash spot going up against a Jaguars' secondary that features cornerbacks Tre Herndon (54.7 PFF grade) and rookie C.J. Henderson. Hilton should be able to get loose deep in this one.
Jack Doyle (TE, IND)
Jack Doyle looks poised for an uptick in targets with the departure of Eric Ebron. Philip Rivers loves to check it down to his tight ends, so we could see a return to 2017 production. The Jaguars no longer have studs like defensive lineman Calais Campbell or cornerback A.J. Bouye on a defense that projects to be one of the very worst in football.
Marlon Mack & Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Both Colts' backs are in a smash spot against a Jaguars' defense that allowed 5.32 yards per carry (32nd) and 30.1 fantasy points per game (T-31st) to opposing running backs. This is also a potential positive game script with the Colts favored by 7.5 points, so we could see them chewing the clock by running the football towards the end of the game. It's likely that head coach Frank Reich will go with the hot hand here, but both backs are in play as strong FLEX plays in season-long as well as tournament and cash plays in DFS.
D.J. Chark (WR, JAX)
D.J. Chark has the perfect setup to really take off this season, playing for a tanking team that will be playing catch-up virtually every game. He goes up against a Colts Defense that tied for 23rd in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. The Colts have the declining Xavier Rhodes (46.4 PFF grade) and Rock Ya-Sin (65.3 PFF grade) at corner, so Chark has a chance at a field day.
Other Matchups:
Philip Rivers (QB, IND)
Philip Rivers is purely a streaming option in season-long formats, but he's in play here against a weak Jaguars Defense. The risk here is that the Colts get off to an early lead and slow the game down by running the football, but it's worth a shot to play Rivers behind this dominant offensive line, especially as a DFS tournament punt play.
Parris Campbell & Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Both of these young receivers have shown promise during training camp and have a great matchup here, but it's best to take a wait-and-see approach. Having said that, they're worth a look as DFS tournament punt plays facing off against this porous secondary. Consider both of them as WR4 options.
Gardner Minshew II (QB, JAX)
Gardner Minshew is going to be slinging it all season. Here he goes up against a Colts defense that allowed 7.52 yards per attempt (22nd) last season. It could be a positive game script where the Jags play catch-up, so Minshew is in play as a streamer in deeper leagues. I really like him as a punt play for DFS tournaments, as he's a virtual lock to have a low roster percentage.
James Robinson & Chris Thompson (RB, JAX)
James Robinson looks to be entrenched as the team's starting running back, but this is a negative game script where the Jags could fall behind early. It's likely that Robinson will see some work on early downs before being spelled by Chris Thompson in passing situations. The Colts defense allowed the fourth-most running back targets last season, so there's a chance for production here. Both of these backs look like RB4 options for Week 1.
Laviska Shenault (WR, JAX)
Laviska Shenault is intriguing because of his ability to make plays in the screen game and out of the backfield. The rookie is a playmaker who has a real chance to become the waiver wire darling post-Week 1. I really like him as a DFS tournament punt play but for season-long leagues, it's best to wait and see how he's used. If he's on your waiver wire, pick him up now!
Packers at Vikings
Matchups We Love:
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Davante Adams is in line for monster volume playing for a Packers team with few options in the passing game. He goes up against a Vikings Defense that ranked 23rd in fantasy allowed per game to receivers. In two games against the Vikings last year, Adams put up 20 receptions for 222 yards on 25 targets. Fire up Adams as an elite WR1 and make sure to play him in both cash and tournament DFS games.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Aaron Jones should see an uptick in receiving production as the defacto WR2 in this offense, which should help offset the negative touchdown regression coming off an unsustainable 16 touchdowns. In two games against the Vikings last year, Jones rushed 46 times for 270 yards and three touchdowns. The Vikings defense also allowed 120 targets to running backs last season, which ranked 21st in the NFL.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
Dalvin Cook has a great matchup against a Packers Defense that allowed the sixth-most points to opposing running backs last season. They also gave up 130 targets to running backs, which was the five-most in the NFL. In one game against the Packers last year, Cook put up 187 total yards and one touchdown. Cook is an elite RB1 in this prime matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Kirk Cousins is merely a streaming option in all formats and this is a bad matchup. The Packers defense allowed the fifth-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks last season. Cousins plays for a low-volume, run-heavy offense, so you need to take him off your radar for this one.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Justin Jefferson is a talented rookie receiver, but this is a bad matchup against the Packers' secondary. Green Bay allowed the sixth-fewest points to opposing receivers last season. Jefferson is also listed as the third receiver on this Vikings' depth chart, so it's unlikely that he makes much of an impact in this game.
Other Matchups:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Aaron Rodgers is merely a high-end QB2 this season due to his limited weapons in the passing game. In two games against the Vikings last season, Rodgers completed 48-of-74 passes (64.8%) for 425 yards (5.7 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, and one interception. The only reason that he's a lukewarm play instead of an avoid is because his two main weapons have great matchups.
Allen Lazard (WR, GB)
Allen Lazard is intriguing because he has a clear path to playing time with the WR2 role wide open on this offense. He has a good matchup here against a porous Vikings' secondary, but it's best to treat him as solely a DFS tournament play here.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)
Adam Thielen is set for massive volume with Stefon Diggs' departure and Justin Jefferson's development. At the same time, this is a tough matchup here, so that makes Thielen more of a high-end WR2 this week as opposed to the weekly WR1 that he should be for much of the season.
Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN)
Irv Smith Jr. is an intriguing sleeper at tight end because of his clear-path to targets on a Vikings team with limited weapons. The Packers ranked 14th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends last season, but Smith's potential volume makes him on the TE2 and DFS tournament radar as a punt play.
Dolphins at Patriots
Matchups We Love:
Cam Newton (QB, NE)
Cam Newton has a smash-spot against a Dolphins Defense that allowed the third-most points to fantasy quarterbacks last season. It'll be interesting to see how much Cam runs this year - if he looks healthy then those who drafted him got an absolute steal. Cam has a massive chip on his shoulder after being released by the Panthers, so you can bet that he's highly motivated to have a bounce-back season.
Other Matchups:
Julian Edelman (WR, NE)
It's hard to trust Julian Edelman as anything more than a lukewarm WR3 play even in a great matchup because: 1) He's currently nursing a knee injury and 2) We need to see how he does with Cam. I don't hate the play since he plays the Dolphins, but if you have an option with more upside I'd go with that choice.
N'Keal Harry (WR, NE)
N'Keal Harry's profile as an big, athletic receiver with the ability to haul in contested catches reminds me of Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess, two wideouts that had success with Cam in the past. He's an intriguing WR4 right now because of those similarities and his prospect pedigree. The Dolphins allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers last season.
Sony Michel & James White (RB, NE)
This profiles more of a Sony Michel game as a potential blowout with the Patriots as 6.5-point favorites, but Michel is going to be eased back after recovering from a foot injury. Plus, he's not a very good running back. White is the superior player, but I expect the Pats to get out to an early lead, so they won't really need his pass-catching skills out of the backfield. Also, it's unlikely that Cam will target him as often as Brady. Consider both of these players as low-end flex options for Week 1.
Matchups We Hate:
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, MIA)
Ryan Fitzpatrick is likely to be playing catch-up in this one, but this Patriots Defense remains a strong unit. It's going to be tough for the Dolphins to move the ball. The Pats allowed the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks last season, so I wouldn't consider Fitz in any format this week.
Jordan Howard & Matt Breida (RB, MIA)
Both of these backs are in a negative game script, as the Pats are likely to win by multiple scores in this game. Neither of them are great receiving backs, so it's hard to see them racking up receptions in garbage time. We also need to see how the Dolphins choose to use these backs, so take a wait-and-see approach and consider them RB4s.
DeVante Parker & Preston Williams (WR, MIA)
DeVante Parker has been limited in practice with a hamstring injury. Preston Williams is returning from a torn-ACL. The Pats allowed the fewest points to wide receivers last year. They also have the best corner in the game in Stephon Gilmore. Leave these two on the bench, they'll help you later in the season.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Mike Gesicki opened the year as the number-two tight end on the Dolphins' depth chart. This is concerning because we've all heard about how new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey does not use his tight ends much in his scheme. Gesicki is a great athlete, but he needs to be on the bench in this one until we get more clarity.
Matchups Analysis - 4:05/4:25 PM ET Games
We've got just three games on the afternoon slate in Week 1 since one game that would usually be here (Titans at Broncos) is the second Monday night game. The headline game on this slate is the Buccaneers facing the Saints, a game that features Tom Brady's Buccaneers debut. That one should be on every fantasy player's radar.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Matchups We Love:
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
In Joe Burrow's NFL debut, I'm expecting to see the team lean fairly heavily on Joe Mixon. And why wouldn't they, since he's coming off consecutive 1000-yard seasons and hasn't fumbled since 2017. Burrow needs someone to relieve the pressure off of him, so why not give the ball to a sure-handed rusher who's averaged four-plus yards per carry over the past two years? Especially when the Chargers allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to running backs last year while shutting down the passing game on a much more consistent basis. I have Mixon penciled in as a must-start in season-long formats.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
The Bengals Defense struggled last season and I don't see 2020 going too much different, especially out of the gate. The Chargers offense is going to look much different now that Philip Rivers is gone, but the Tyrod Taylor-led offense should do one thing mostly the same as the Rivers-led offense did: get Austin Ekeler involved. While the 5'10'' back may cede some rushing work to Justin Jackson, he should still get a good number of carries, plus he averaged 5.75 receptions per game last season. Ekeler should serve as a great safety valve for Taylor just as he did with Rivers, and the Bengals aren't going to have the playmakers to stop Ekeler when he gets to the edge.
Tyrod Taylor (QB, LAC)
Taylor's Chargers debut comes against a Bengals team that allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season. I'm fairly high on Taylor this year -- he was a solid QB2 with QB1 upside during his starting tenure in Buffalo thanks to his rushing ability and some solid accuracy. He's a solid QB2 option this week against a Bengals defense that I just don't trust.
Matchups We Hate:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Yes, the Chargers don't have Derwin James this year, but they still have a defense full of playmakers and are set to make Joe Burrow's life difficult in his NFL debut. Without a preseason, this will be the first time Burrow is seeing an NFL defense outside of seeing the Bengals defense in scrimmages. Things are going to move fast. The SEC is tough, but the SEC still isn't the NFL, and Burrow is getting thrown right into the frying pan. I don't doubt that the No. 1 overall pick has good games this season, but I do doubt that those good games begin in Week 1. Too much uncertainty here.
Bengals Wide Receivers
Part of me just wants to copy/past "too much uncertainty here" from the above paragraph and go with it. Tyler Boyd's a pretty safe play because of his target upside, but this isn't the game where I want to be playing A.J. Green in his first football game in over a year, or where I want to be taking a risk on rookie Tee Higgins, or where I'd take the dart throw on John Ross III or Auden Tate. Green will (probably) return to form this season. Burrow's accuracy on deep throws will help this offense hum along by the end of the year. But not this week. Outside of Boyd, I'm avoid this group.
Other Matchups:
Hunter Henry (TE, LAC)
The Bengals were in the middle of the pack last year in terms of points allowed to tight ends. With Rivers under center, I'd really like this matchup for Henry, but Taylor's presence gives me enough pause to just feel kind of "meh" about it. Why? Because in his three seasons with Buffalo, his top tight end finished at TE14 twice and TE20 once. Now, that might just have been because his top tight end was Charles Clay, who is 100 percent not as good as Hunter Henry. I'll play Henry in leagues where I have him because I drafted Hunter Henry to be a weekly starter, but I'll feel a little scared about it.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Basically the same stuff as the Henry blurb above. Taylor in Buffalo supported top receiver finishes of WR16 once and WR62 twice. Throw that WR62 stuff into the sun because it means literally nothing, but in 2015, Taylor helped Sammy Watkins to a WR16 finish, which is really the only positive we have to go off of in terms of season-long production. I think Allen's going to be fine, but like with Henry, I don't feel overly confident in saying that, you know?
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Matchups We Love:
George Kittle (TE, SF)
This is the biggest no-brainer of the week. You're starting George Kittle in season-long no matter what because he's George Kittle, but he gets a boost in DFS this week because the Arizona Cardinals were so bad against tight ends last year. They allowed 14 touchdowns to tight ends last year, while the second-worst team in that category allowed 10.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)
Starting Jimmy G against the Cardinals last year helped me win some fantasy games and make the playoffs. Garoppolo had three games with 300 or more yards in 2019, and two of those were against the Cardinals. He threw eight of his 27 touchdowns in just those two games. This is THE matchup for Garoppolo. If you're got him on your roster and are even thinking about starting him, do it.
Everyone In San Francisco TBH
I mean look, this whole Niners team is startable this week in the right context. In the second meeting between these teams last year, the running game struggled pretty bad, but Deebo Samuel, Kyle Juszczyk, and Richie James are all 50-plus receiving yards, Kendrick Bourne caught a touchdown, and Ross Dwelley had two touchdowns. In the first meeting, Matt Breida ran for 78 yards and added 14 receiving yards and even Dante Pettis got in on the action with a touchdown. This is a week where 49ers players have more upside than usual. Sure, you aren't starting Kendrick Bourne in an 8-team league, but if you're 50/50ing a 49ers player and someone else for a spot, I'd give the Niner a slight edge.
Matchups We Hate:
Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)
Do I think Larry Fitzgerald still has value this season? For sure. I actually wrote about him earlier this week in my wide receiver column. But this is a bad matchup for the Cardinals, and while Kyler Murray's rushing floor and DeAndre Hopkins's projected role as the new top receiver on this team make them feel like safe starts, I'm avoiding some of the guys further down the pecking order. Christian Kirk? Sure, play him. Fitzgerald? Nope, I think he should sit this one out on your fantasy bench.
Other Matchups:
Kenyan Drake (RB, ARI)
Look, Kenyan Drake rushed for 110 yards and a touchdown and added 52 receiving yards in the first meeting between these teams last year, then followed that up with 67 yards in the second meeting. It was tempting to say I loved this matchup because of those numbers, but I'm just not sure I trust Drake that much against the 49ers Defense. Play him in season-long leagues, but he's a little risky in DFS this week because the 49ers were one of the best teams at limiting opposing running backs in fantasy last season.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Murray's ability to run the ball keeps him out of the hate column this week. He had one of his lowest passing outputs of the year last season against this team, throwing for just 150 yards in the second meeting. But his 67 rushing yards and a touchdown helped him have a solid fantasy day. That's what we should expect on Sunday: a solid day with the possibility of some upside.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
Last year against the Cardinals, Christian Kirk had 14 targets. Second among wide receivers in targets in those two games was Larry Fitzgerald with nine. Kyler Murray focused on one guy more in those games, and this year that one guy is likely to be new addition DeAndre Hopkins. You don't trade for Hopkins to not use him heavily immediately. Still, the low passing volume that we saw from Arizona in the second Niners game last year gives me enough pause to feel "meh" about this matchup for DFS purposes.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
TB: QB - 9, RB - 31, WR - 1, TE - 6
NO: QB - 11, RB - 29, WR - 5, TE - 22
Matchups We Love:
Chris Godwin and maybe Mike Evans (WR, TB)
The "maybe" is because Mike Evans is already dealing with a hamstring injury, so while I like the matchup against a Saints team that allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers last year, it's a bit of a "wait and see" when it comes to Evans. But Godwin, who should see plenty of work inside and outside, is probably going to be Tom Brady's favorite target this year anyway, and he's a great Week 1 play.
Drew Brees (QB, NO)
The Buccaneers allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last year. Brees played Tampa once last year, and while he only threw for 228 yards, he had three touchdowns and completed 80 percent of his passes. In a matchup of old guy quarterbacks, I'm taking the Brees side, even if...
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
...I also like the matchup for Brady. The Saints allowed the 11th-most points to quarterbacks and while Brady looked like he'd slipped at times in 2019, he's now playing in a Bruce Arians offense. If he still has something left in that arm of his, this is the offense where he'll show it. And this is the matchup where he might show it as well.
Michael Thomas (WR, NO)
Can I just replace this entire section with the words "start all of your Saints and Buccaneers players?" Tampa Bay allowed a lot of fantasy points to wide receivers last year. Michael Thomas is the best receiver in the NFL. He had 19 catches in two games against Tampa last year. He's the overall WR1 this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
The only matchup I hate here is Gronk. It's his first game since February 2019. The Saints were better against tight ends than against wide receivers last year. And Bruce Arians offenses have traditionally been really bad for tight ends. I don't expect Gronk to come out of the gate strong this year, as his importance to the Buccaneers is much more tied into late-season and playoffs. I don't think I have Gronk rostered anywhere, but if I did, I'd consider sitting him.
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
The Saints allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs last season. Fournette has been on this team for a short amount of time. I don't expect to see the workload that Fournette would need for this to be a great Fournette game.
While we're here, Ronald Jones II? I also don't love him this week! If the Buccaneers do damage, it'll be via Tom Brady's arm.
Other Matchups:
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
The one thing that the Buccaneers did well last year was limit fantasy points to running backs. Kamara's not just any running back, though, so he avoids the hate part of this column. He had some solid games against Tampa last year and should be fine again this year, but I just don't quite love this matchup more than I love some other running backs when it comes to DFS lineups.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams
DAL: QB - 20, RB - 20, WR - 27, TE - 8
LAR: QB - 21, RB - 14, WR - 23, TE - 19
Matchups We Love:
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
If there's one position Dallas struggled against last season, it was tight ends. I still don't quite know if I really trust Tyler Higbee or if I believe his strong end to 2019 was a fluke, but this is definitely a matchup where I'll give him an opportunity to prove that he's ready to be a set-and-forget TE1.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Zeke had 117 rushing yards, two touchdowns, and 43 receiving yards when these teams faced last season. The Rams might be able to slow down the passing game for the Cowboys, but expect Elliott to spend plenty of time toting the rock and cranking out five yard carries.
Rams Wide Receivers (WR, LAR)
Dallas got less experienced in the secondary this offseason, which should bode well for Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. What also bodes well for them? A higher projected target share this year now that the team doesn't have Brandin Cooks to take away looks. I'm extremely high on both guys this year, and a starting secondary of Anthony Brown, Trevon Diggs, Darian Thompson, and Xavier Woods, I don't see Dallas slowing these two down. Both should be in fantasy lineups.
Jared Goff (QB, LAR)
Did you see the names I mentioned above of guys who are starting in the Cowboys secondary? Sure, their front seven can get to Goff, but when he has time to throw, he'll have open receivers in good positions. Goff is ranked as a high-end QB2 this week, but I consider him a low-end QB1 due to the issues Dallas might be facing.
Matchups We Hate:
Amari Cooper (WR, DAL)
He's going to get shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. He had one catch for 19 yards against the Rams last year. You can't bench him in most formats (or can you???) but what you can do is not put Cooper in any -- or at least not many -- of your DFS lineups. He's not getting the football. It's going to take some miscommunication or some interesting playcalling to get a big Cooper game.
Other Matchups:
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Cooper only had 19 yards in this matchup last year, but Dak managed 212 yards and two touchdowns and added 12 rushing yards. Yes, that meant he tied for his lowest yardage total of 2019 and...
Sorry, I lost track of where I was going with that, mainly because it was only going negative places. Here's the thing though -- with a new head coach and a new weapon at wide receiver, I think last year's game is about what Dak's floor is for this one. Am I basing that on some speculation? Sure, but this is a weird upcoming season and we don't have 2020 data yet, so sometimes we have to speculate.
Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Cooper's going to blanketed, which should open things up for Gallup and Lamb to be fine options. Gallup's a high-end WR3 with some "getting more targets than usual" upside. Lamb's a WR4 with the same upside, but also with a pretty low floor because rookie wide receivers are incredibly hard to trust in fantasy. Neither guy screams "must play," but neither screams "must sit" either.
Cam Akers (RB, LAR)
Akers is the only Rams running back that I'm actually interested in for fantasy purposes, but he also sits third on the depth chart. I think that's a deceptive third and that Akers is going to get plenty of touches this week. Dallas doesn't seem like they'll be particularly good or bad against the run this year, so the real question here is what to expect with Akers in terms of role. That's why he's in this section instead of the "love" section, because there are enough questions around him to make him someone who you can't feel super confident about playing. Risky option, but with solid upside.
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