Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em - Week 1 Matchups Analysis

2 years ago by Josh Constantinou

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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 1 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. It's been a wild offseason full of blockbuster trades, rookies flying up the depth chart, and heated camp battles. Alas, we have arrived at Week 1, so let's get off to a strong start!

For those who are unfamiliar, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. As a note for Week 1, all of the pace and DVOA statistics are from the 2021 regular season.

I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games plus the Monday Night Football game. There will also be a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game, so be sure to read that as well. Let's go get that first win under our belt! If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best NFL Series, MLB Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions

Spread: Eagles -4.0
Implied Total: Eagles (26.25) vs. Lions (22.25)
Pace: Eagles (16th) vs. Lions (13th)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 18.0% Pass (14th), 7.0% Rush (3rd)
Lions Off. DVOA: -7.2% Pass (28th), -17.3% Rush (26th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 13.1% Pass (25th), -6.3% Rush (18th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 17.8% Pass (27th), 2.4% Rush (31st)

Matchups We Love:

Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)

Hurts will open the season against the Lions defense, which was poor in all facets of the game last year. They did make some additions in an attempt to improve their unit but not to a point that fantasy managers need to worry about them as a matchup. Hurts carried the ball 139 times for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2021, providing him with a safe floor and elite upside. You can expect Hurts to exploit this matchup with his newest weapon A.J. Brown and Co.

Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)

Goedert became much more involved after Zach Ertz was traded, receiving five or more targets in seven of his final 10 games, along with 70-plus yards six times in that stretch. The Eagles project to establish a lead and close this one out with their dominant rushing attack, but Goedert will be an integral part of building that lead.

D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)

Despite an RB19 finish in half-PPR and RB15 in full-PPR, Swift averaged the 10th most fantasy points of all backs in both formats. Health and durability have consistently been a problem for Swift but he enters the season at full health as one of the league's best receiving backs.

Matchups We Hate:

Eagles RBs

As mentioned above, the Eagles rushing attack will excel in this matchup. Unfortunately, that production is currently being distributed among three running backs and Hurts. Miles Sanders is supposed to be the lead back but what that represents is unclear, Boston Scott is the best bet to score a touchdown but that might be all he does, and Kenneth Gainwell will catch the most passes but this is not a matchup the Eagles will need to throw a lot in. Stay clear of this group in Week 1.

Other Matchups:

Eagles WRs

Much like Goedert, Brown and DeVonta Smith will contribute during the first few quarters but their production will tail off once a lead is cemented. This is tolerable at the tight end position because of the limited options but at wide receiver, there are so many great options, that it's unnecessary to take on the extra risk. Neither is completely out of consideration but this is not a favorable matchup in terms of game script.

T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)

Hocksenson is classified as an upper-echelon tight end because he receives consistent volume and slots in as a top-two target on his team. Additionally, the game script, as described above, is favorable for the Lions' passing attack. The problem is that it's unclear how capable this offense will be and to what degree other options, including Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, and Josh Reynolds will factor in. This keeps him out of the matchups we love, making him a middle-of-the-road option.

Injuries:

Jameson Williams (knee)

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Spread: Colts -7.0
Implied Total: Colts (26.5) vs. Texans (19.5)
Pace: Colts (31st) vs. Texans (17th)
Colts Off. DVOA: 6.2% Pass (20th), 10.4% Rush (2nd)
Texans Off. DVOA: -8.6% Pass (29th), -33.2% Rush (32nd)
Colts Def. DVOA: -5.9% Pass (17th), -21.6% Rush (3rd)
Texans Def. DVOA: 11.1% Pass (22nd), -4.9% Rush (22nd)

Matchups We Love:

Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)

Taylor put together a dominant season in 2022, leading the league in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, yards after contact, and fantasy points at the running back position. As the consensus 1.01 in most non-superflex formats, he remains a great option, especially against the Texans' porous defense.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)

After a sophomore breakout resulting in 100-plus targets for 1,000-plus yards, Pittman Jr. is poised to take another step forward as the clear-cut alpha in this offense. He'll have an opportunity to showcase his talent against the Texans' defense in this matchup.

Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)

Cooks is as consistent as they come, producing another season with over 1,000 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns. He is without a doubt the most talented offensive playmaker the team has, and will see plenty of volume in this matchup facing a defense that is more favorable to pass against.

Matchups We Hate:

Texans RBs

Despite the offseason hype for Dameon Pierce, this is not the matchup to trot him out in. Rex Burkhead will be involved in the receiving game, the Colts' defense is difficult to rush against, and the Texans are a heavy underdog.

Other Matchups:

Nyheim Hines (RB, IND)

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Head coach Frank Reich has discussed utilizing Hines more to reduce the workload for Taylor. While it's unlikely this has any real impact on Taylor's value, it could provide a bump in carries to pair with the exceptional pass-catching skills Hines possesses. Furthermore, the receiving corps in this offense is unproven, which could open up a real opportunity for both backs to be on the field simultaneously. As heavy favorites, the Colts project to lean on their rushing attack but Hines is still a nice flex option.

Injuries:

None

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Pick em
Implied Total: Browns (21.25) vs. Panthers (21.25)
Pace: Browns (26th) vs. Panthers (17th)
Browns Off. DVOA: 6.8% Pass (19th), 11.1% Rush (1st)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -24.2% Pass (32nd), -11.5% Rush (21st)
Browns Def. DVOA: -0.8% Pass (7th), -4.8% Rush (23rd)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 6.8% Pass (18th), -8.2% Rush (15th)

Matchups We Love:

Browns RBs

The Browns rushing attack paced the league in rush DVOA in 2021 and enters 2022 expected to be the focal point of the offense again. The Panthers' defense is average against the run and this projects to be a close game. All of this points to a great opportunity for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR)

Anyone bold enough to take McCaffrey in their drafts will reap the rewards immediately in this matchup. When on the field and healthy, he's an absolute cheat code for fantasy. Thankfully, he's currently one hundred percent healthy and ready to go.

D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)

Moore has been heavily involved in each of the past three seasons, receiving 100-plus targets and 1,100-plus yards in each. Additionally, he enters 2022 with the best quarterback he's ever played with, creating a lot of optimism about his ability to surpass his career-high four touchdowns.

Matchups We Hate:

Browns WRs

Amari Cooper was a cornerstone piece for the Cowboys since he arrived in Dallas, but he was shipped to the Browns for very little compensation. He struggled with injuries in 2021, causing him to miss two full games and be ineffective in a few more. He finished with less than 1,000 yards and receives a massive downgrade at quarterback in Jacoby Brissett. The Browns also have rookie David Bell, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and tight end David Njoku competing for targets in this low-volume passing attack.

Other Matchups:

David Njoku (TE, CLE)

As described above, the Browns will not be winning this game by airing it out 40 times. That said, Njoku is a tight end who figures to be the No. 2 option in this offense so he still possesses mild intrigue in this matchup.

Injuries:

None

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears

Spread: 49ers -6.5
Implied Total: 49ers (24.25) vs. Bears (17.75)
Pace: 49ers (29th) vs. Bears (21st)
49ers Off. DVOA: 32.7% Pass (5th), 7.0% Rush (4th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -5.3% Pass (26th), -13.5% Rush (23rd)
49ers Def. DVOA: 6.8% Pass (18th), -8.2% Rush (15th)
Bears Def. DVOA: 2.3% Pass (12th), -4.3% Rush (24th)

Matchups We Love:

Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF)

Mitchell's rookie season was underrated because he missed six games. He was actually the RB12 in points per game (half-PPR scoring), with the fifth most yards after contact, the 12th most broken tackles, and the 17th best elusive rating, among all running backs. Mitchell is a quality player and the established leader of the 49ers' exceptional running game. The Bears' rush defense is exploitable and the point spread indicates this will be a lopsided affair.

Trey Lance (QB, SF)

Lance has massive upside because of his athleticism as a dual-threat quarterback. In his only two starts, he averaged 65 rushing yards on top of his 175 passing yards. This provides him with a safe floor and a huge ceiling. He's expected to experience some growing pains in his first season as a full-time starter but the Bears defense is not a unit that will expose his flaws.

Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI)

The Bears' offense was in the bottom-10 in 2021 and actually got worse. They lost their second, third, and fourth most productive receivers in Allen Robinson, Damiere Byrd, and Marquise Goodwin, along with veteran tight end Jimmy Graham, who caught the second-most touchdowns. They've already placed three receivers on Injured Reserve and two of their top-three options are dealing with injuries. This makes Mooney locked in as their best and only proven receiver, which will result in elite volume.

Matchups We Hate:

Bears RBs

Despite a subpar overall roster, the backfield actually features two talented players in David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. Montgomery averaged four targets per game in 2021, which is an area he'll need to keep excelling in to maintain his fantasy value. These two could reduce each other's ceiling and this team will play from behind, limiting their carries.

Other Matchups:

49ers WRs

The 49ers' passing attack was very efficient last year but there will be a transition period for Lance. There will still be plenty of big plays and big outings from this receiving corps, but in Lance's first game as a starter as a seven-point favorite, there is no reason for them to pass the ball and take unnecessary risks.

Injuries:

None

UPDATE: George Kittle has been ruled out. This concentrates the target distribution for Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, increasing the likeliness they have a productive outing, making Aiyuk a flex option.

UPDATE: Tyrion Davis-Price is inactive. This solidifies more goal-line work for Mitchell.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders

Spread: Commanders -2.5
Implied Total: Jaguars (20.75) vs. Commanders (23.25)
Pace: Jaguars (3rd) vs. Commanders (23rd)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: -10.3% Pass (30th), -8.9% Rush (18th)
Commanders Off. DVOA: 5.4% Pass (22nd), -10.2% Rush (19th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 27.2% Pass (31st), -5.9% Rush (19th)
Commanders Def. DVOA: 18.9% Pass (28th), -14.5% Rush (7th)

Matchups We Love:

Commanders WRs

Terry McLaurin received a big-time extension this offseason as a reflection of his superb talent. He scored a 78.3 Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade in 2021, tying him with Jaylen Waddle for 18th best among receivers. His production has been inhibited at times by the roulette of quarterbacks he's played with. Carson Wentz is not a franchise quarterback but provides an upgrade at the position. The second receiver on the team is rookie Jahan Dotson, who was drafted 16th overall. He's also very talented, finishing with a PFF grade of 87.5 in his final collegiate season, tying him with David Bell for 18th. The Jaguars present an easy matchup with a pass defense to target.

Christian Kirk (WR, JAC)

The Jaguars paid Kirk a ton of money to be the alpha in this ascending offense. Kirk was the WR24 in 2021 setting career-highs in receptions and yards with 77 and 982, respectively. There are other interesting options on the team such as Zay Jones, Marvin Jones Jr., and tight end Evan Engram, but none have the potential to soak up targets like Kirk. Their offseason transactions indicate they want to pass the ball, which is an area the Commanders defense is beatable.

Travis Etienne (RB, JAC)

Despite their desire to pass the ball, Etienne will remain very involved as arguably their most explosive receiving threat. After missing his entire rookie season, he's now at full strength after lighting it up in the preseason. James Robinson will be a factor on early downs and at the goal-line, however, he's currently attempting to return from an Achilles injury. Robinson could become a problem as the season progresses but Etienne will lead this team until then.

Matchups We Hate:

None

Other Matchups:

Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAC)

Lawrence was in an abysmal situation in 2021, yet he still managed to pass for 3,418 yards as a rookie. His 10 touchdowns left a lot to be desired along with the offense as a whole, but everything around him is better, from the coaching staff to the personnel. Lawrence is not a must-start option but has a favorable matchup in a game script conducive to high-passing volume, making him a solid play.

Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)

Gibson has finished as a top-12 back in each of his first two seasons. Unfortunately, things have gone downhill in a hurry. J.D. McKissic was re-signed, third-round rookie Brian Robinson was drafted and seemingly supplanted Gibson, and the team lost confidence in the third-year pro. Sadly, Robinson was a victim of a robbery and is currently on the Physically Unable to Perform list. This creates a lot of uncertainty about the role Gibson will have entering Week 1. He projects to see most of the early down carries with minimal receptions but could find the endzone against the Jaguars. He'll be a riskier play with upside if he hits pay dirt.

Injuries:

Brian Robinson (leg)

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -3.5
Implied Total: Patriots (21.25) vs. Dolphins (24.75)
Pace: Patriots (24th) vs. Raiders (15th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: 24.7% Pass (10th), 4.9% Rush (7th)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 4.8% Pass (23rd), -23.1% Rush (29th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: -12.6% Pass (3rd), -13.1% Rush (10th)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: -0.3% Pass (9th), -6.6% Rush (17th)

Matchups We Love:

Chase Edmonds (RB, MIA)

After sharing a backfield with James Conner last season, Edmonds is now the lead back for the Dolphins. Yes, Raheem Mostert is there and has familiarity with the Mike McDaniels system, but Edmonds is the superior talent, especially in the receiving game. He finished with 43 receptions, tying him for the 13th most with McKissic and Javonte Williams, in only 12 games played. The Patriots were a top-10 defense in 2021, so this versatility will keep him involved ahead of the other backs.

Matchups We Hate:

Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)

Tyreek Hill, Year 2 Jaylen Waddle, and a revamped coaching staff are all reasons to be excited about this offense, however, this is not the matchup to stream or play Tagovailoa in. Despite sweeping the season series against the Patriots last year, he struggled mightily for fantasy with under 20 points in both games.

Other Matchups:

Dolphins WRs

As referenced above, Hill and Waddle will form one of the league's top duos for fantasy. Hill finished 14th in yards per route run, 17th in yards after the catch, and sixth in fantasy points per game. Waddle broke the rookie record for receptions en route to a WR16 (half-PPR) finish. Both are worthy of a spot in your lineup but this matchup will be a challenging one for Tagovailoa and the Dolphins' offense.

DeVante Parker (WR, NE)

Parker, a former Dolphin himself, is now the leading receiver for the Patriots. This offense lacked a consistent weapon in the passing game in 2021, evidenced by Kendrick Bourne finishing as their highest-ranked receiver at WR30 (half-PPR), despite being a top-10 offense. The spread in this matchup suggests the Patriots will need to throw the ball but this is an area the Dolphins' defense was strong last year, making Parker an option to consider but not force into your lineup.

Patriots RBs

The Dolphins were more vulnerable on the ground last season with an average rush DVOA. The difficulty is determining the splits between Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Both are excellent talents but cap the upside of one another. Stevenson finished with the ninth-highest elusive rating and 10th-highest PFF grade, scoring 81.1. These are indicators of an elite player with tons of potential if he receives the workload. Both are startable options but neither ranked inside the top 24 in Week 1.

Injuries:

None

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -6.5
Implied Total: Steelers (18.75) vs. Bengals (25.25)
Pace: Steelers (5th) vs. Bengals (30th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: -0.3% Pass (24th), -14.2% Rush (24th)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 12.5% Pass (15th), -10.7% Rush (20th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: -0.4% Pass (8th), -0.8% Rush (27th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 11.6% Pass (24th), -9.8% Rush (13th)

Matchups We Love:

Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)

Mixon finished as the RB3 (half-PPR) or RB4 (PPR) in 2021, with over 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 16 combined touchdowns. He was also fourth in yards after contact, sixth in broken tackles, and 10th in missed tackles forced. Mixon is a talented back on a top-tier offense, making him a great start against the Steelers' subpar rush defense, not to mention the game script.

Najee Harris (RB, PIT)

Harris led the league with 366 touches (carries + receptions) last year on his way to an RB4 (half-PPR) or RB3 (PPR) finish in his rookie season. While it's possible he remains in the top five for volume in 2022, regression is undoubtedly coming. All that aside, he'll still be very involved and a top-12 start against the Bengals.

Matchups We Hate:

Steelers WRs

Diontae Johnson tied Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams for the second-most targets in the league last season. The injury to JuJu Smith-Schuster, the inconsistency of Chase Claypool, and the propensity of Ben Roethlisberger to throw short, quick passes, created the perfect storm. The team drafted George Pickens, who was on fire in the preseason, and now has Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. With tight end Pat Freiermuth entering Year 2 and Claypool potentially re-establishing himself, none of these options are in a favorable spot.

Other Matchups:

Bengals WRs

Ja'Marr Chase broke Jefferson's rookie receiving record with 1,455 yards and trailed only Cooper Kupp in receiving touchdowns with 13. Tee Higgins also cleared 1,000 receiving yards, finishing as a top-24 option, and Tyler Boyd joined them inside the top-30 with a handful of great games himself. These three all have a chance to produce a big game every week but may not need to do as much against a Steelers squad that is vulnerable on the ground.

Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)

As pointed out above, Freieirmuth is entering his sophomore season after an impressive rookie campaign. Despite missing two games, he still finished inside the top 12, ranking fifth in receiving touchdowns at the position. He's a solid bet for a touchdown against the Bengals and projects to see top-10 volume among tight ends.

Injuries:

None

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets

Spread: Ravens -7.0
Implied Total: Ravens (25.75) vs. Jets (18.75)
Pace: Ravens (20th) vs. Jets (7th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 12.5% Pass (16th), -1.5% Rush (11th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -5.8% Pass (27th), -4.6% Rush (15th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: 27.0% Pass (30th), -18.4% Rush (4th)
Jets Def. DVOA: 29.0% Pass (32nd), -2.6% Rush (26th)

Matchups We Love:

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)

Jackson is the betting odds favorite to lead all quarterbacks in rushing each and every year. He's cleared 1,000 rushing yards both times he's played a full season and was well on his way again in 2021 with 767 rushing yards in only 12 games played. The running back room is missing Gus Edwards, and J.K. Dobbins is working his way back to health, increasing the likelihood Jackson will utilize his legs. The Jets present an easy matchup for him to pass against early while breaking off some explosive plays.

Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)

Andrews stole the crown from Travis Kelce last season and has a chance to repeat as the No. 1 tight end in 2022. The team traded away Marquise Brown and did not add anyone of significance, setting him up for ample volume and double-digit touchdowns yet again.

Matchups We Hate:

Ravens RBs

As was eluded to, this backfield is struggling with injuries, prompting them to sign Kenyan Drake to pair with veteran Mike Davis to bolster their depth. Until Dobbins is at full health and resumes his role as the lead back, none of these options are startable.

Jets RBs

The Jets selected Breece Hall as the highest running back in the draft, who is extremely talented. Unfortunately, Zach Wilson was injured during the preseason, sophomore Michael Carter figures to be involved in the passing game, and they face a tough Ravens rush defense. Hall could have a huge impact as the season progress but this is not the matchup you want to trot him out there in.

Other Matchups:

Jets WRs

The game script, pace, and Ravens' strong rush defense, all lend themselves to a nice matchup for the Jets receivers. It is only the question marks at quarterback that limit them from being great options here.

Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL)

Bateman entered his rookie campaign injured and was unable to get onto the field until Week 6. The 22-year-old averaged over five targets per game, with 80 or more yards on three occasions. He struggled to find the end zone, which is an area he'll need to improve to move into the top-24 in 2022. The team traded away Brown, opening up the alpha receiver role, which Bateman figures to slide right into. Andrews will still be the leader of the receiving corps but Bateman should be in line for a big leap in his sophomore season. He'll be involved in Week 1 but because the Ravens are such heavy favorites and rely so heavily on their ground game, this is not an ideal spot to start him.

Injuries:

Gus Edwards (knee)

Zach Wilson (knee)

UPDATE: J.K. Dobbins (knee) has been ruled out. It's difficult to trust Davis, Drake, or Justice Hill, so it's best to go with another option.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Saints -5.5
Implied Total: Saints (24.25) vs. Falcons (18.75)
Pace: Saints (25th) vs. Falcons (18th)
Saints Off. DVOA: 7.0% Pass (18th), -18.4% Rush (28th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: -3.5% Pass (25th), -25.5% Rush (31st)
Saints Def. DVOA: -7.2% Pass (4th), -26.8% Rush (1st)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 20.2% Pass (29th), 0.7% Rush (29th)

Matchups We Love:

Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)

Pitts was a handful of touchdowns away from producing a monster season as a rookie. He finished with 1,026 yards, second all-time behind only Hall-of-Famer Mike Ditka. This was also third-most after Travis Kelce and Andrews. Additionally, what is great about Pitts is that he's definitively the No. 1 target in the offense. The Saints are a strong defense but Pitts will still come through in this matchup.

Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)

Kamara's off-the-field issues cast a cloud over him during the offseason but they seem to be on hold until after the 2022 season. There are some concerns about the efficiency of the offense with Jameis Winston as their starter, plus increased target competition, including the return of Michael Thomas, the signing of Jarvis Landry, and the draft selection of Chris Olave. These factors may limit his ceiling but he's still a must-start against the Falcons' bottom-tier defense.

Matchups We Hate:

Falcons RBs

The Falcons watched Cordarrelle Patterson break down later in the season, unable to sustain a heavy workload. This led to the signing of Damien Williams and the selection of rookie Tyler Allgeier. Patterson is certainly the best pass-catcher of the three but Williams and Allgeier will lead the charge on early downs, creating a three-way split on an offense that will struggle to score.

Other Matchups:

Saints WRs

As was laid out above, there are a lot of capable receivers on this offense, none of whom played in 2021. This makes deciding to start one of them more difficult, especially with the team planning to rely on their rushing attack and strong defense to win.

Injuries:

None

UPDATE: Drake London (knee) is expected to play, however, is not someone to start in this matchup. The injury adds too much risk for a rookie wide receiver with uncertain target distribution in a low-scoring offense.

UPDATE: Tyler Allgeier will be inactive. This increases the floor for Patterson and makes him a flex option, especially in full-PPR scoring.

Matchups Analysis - 4:00 ET Games

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Chiefs -6.0
Implied Total: Chiefs (30) vs. Cardinals (24)
Pace: Chiefs (9th) vs. Cardinals (12th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 34.7% Pass (3rd), 0.8% Rush (10th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: 24.8% Pass (9th), -11.8% Rush (22nd)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: 11.3% Pass (23rd), -5.6% Rush (20th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: -2.3% Pass (5th), -16.6% Rush (6th)

Matchups We Love:

James Conner (RB, ARI)

This matchup has the highest over/under of the week so there will be a lot of great players to start, even including some of the lower-ranked options. That is not the way to describe Conner, whose production was steady all year and skyrocketed after Edmonds went down in Week 9. Conner averaged 13 carries for 61 yards and one full touchdown on the ground, accompanied by five receptions for 54 yards and 0.4 touchdowns through the air. This translated to 23.4 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring. The Cardinals brought in Darrel Williams and drafted rookie Keaontay Ingram to join Eno Benjamin, none of whom are as talented as Edmonds was. Conner should get off to an awesome start against the Chiefs.

Marquise Brown (WR, ARI)

Brown started the year on fire, posting a line of 52/719/6 (receptions/yards/touchdowns) over his first nine games. Unfortunately, he left that ninth game with an injury, and then shortly after his return, Jackson went down. Thanks to a blockbuster trade on draft night, he finds himself on the high-flying Cardinals offense attached to Kyler Murray. Further adding fuel to the fire, is DeAndre Hopkins's six-game suspension to begin the year. Brown is the perfect high-ceiling player in this matchup.

Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

Life without Tyreek Hill begins against the Cardinals. You can expect some growing pains with this offense but Mahomes remains a top-tier fantasy option, especially considering the points available in this matchup.

Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)

Murray was the QB3 over the first seven weeks in 2021, before missing three games due to injury. He still had big games down the stretch but with Hopkins out and the team struggling his production took a hit. His numbers could dip over the first six games with Hopkins out, however, the addition of Brown will help mitigate the impact. He's a must-start in this matchup.

Matchups We Hate:

None

Other Matchups:

Chiefs WRs

This is an ideal matchup to take a shot on secondary options, which is exactly the way to describe the Chiefs' receiving corps. Smith-Schuster enters as the favorite to lead the team in targets, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and rookie Skyy Moore are battling for playing time. Kelce is clearly atop the pecking order so it's unlikely they all perform, but each has a case to be a flex-worthy option.

Chiefs RBs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire has a wide range of outcomes this year because of the uncertainty regarding the extent of his role. Ronald Jones is equally as effective on the ground, Jerick McKinnon is a better pass-catcher, and rookie Isiah Pacheco looms on the sideline waiting for an opportunity. Edwards-Helaire warrants consideration here because of the implied point total but this decision comes with an inherent level of risk.

Injuries:

None

UPDATE: Rondale Moore has officially been ruled out. This makes Brown even more appealing, while also adding value to A.J. Green and Zach Ertz.

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Titans -5.5
Implied Total: Giants (19) vs. Titans (24.5)
Pace: Giants (10th) vs. Titans (27th)
Giants Off. DVOA: -22.7% Pass (31st), -24.6% Rush (30th)
Titans Off. DVOA: -5.8% Pass (21st), -6.5% Rush (17th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 2.9% Pass (14th), 2.7% Rush (32nd)
Titans Def. DVOA: 1.8% Pass (11th), -9.2% Rush (14th)

Matchups We Love:

Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)

Henry was far away and the best back last season until injury struck in Week 9. A Jones fracture ended his regular season before a brief appearance in the Titans' wild-card round exit. It took until Week 10 for Taylor to catch him, and despite eight games played he finished as the RB16 in half-PPR scoring. Workload and durability present concerns long-term but he'll be in the running to finish as the overall RB1 against the Giants in Week 1.

Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)

Durability and health were an issue for Barkley as well, who missed four full games and played at less than full strength in a few others. His underlying metrics were reflective of his poor performance, finishing 36th in yards after contact, 69th in elusive rating, and 63rd in broken tackles with only four all season. Yet, Barkley finds himself as the healthiest, most proven receiving option on the team, leading a very shallow depth chart at running back.

Matchups We Hate:

None

Other Matchups:

Robert Woods (WR, TEN)

Woods was the WR11 in half-PPR over the first nine weeks before tearing his ACL. Although he is 30 years old and on a less explosive offense, he's currently the No. 1 option for an efficient play-action game, led by Ryan Tannehill. Woods is unlikely to return to being a top-15 receiver but has a safe floor, especially in PPR formats.

Giants WRs

Head coach Brian Daboll has restored the optimism for this franchise and quarterback Daniel Jones. One thing that has remained the same though, is the injuries and question marks surrounding this receiving corps. Kadarius Toney is incredibly talented but cannot stay healthy, Kenny Golladay is fading before our eyes, Sterling Shepard is trying to come back from an Achilles injury, and rookie Wan'Dale Robinson is undersized, profiling as more of a complimentary piece. Toney and Robinson are the most intriguing, both of which are in line for plenty of volume but neither is a strong start against the Titans.

Injuries:

None

UPDATE: Sterling Shepard (Achilles) will play against the Titans. This does not change the overall outlook for the Giants' receivers.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Packers -1.5
Implied Total: Packers (24) vs. Vikings (22.5)
Pace: Packers (32nd) vs. Vikings (8th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 36.4% Pass (2nd), 3.5% Rush (8th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 23.4% Pass (12th), -17.4% Rush (27th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 5.9% Pass (16th), -0.2% Rush (28th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: 2.8% Pass (13th), -3.o% Rush (25th)

Matchups We Love:

Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)

Cook was the RB11 in half-PPR PPG in 2021, ranking eighth in yards after contact and 13th in broken tackles, in only 13 games played. This was already a fast-paced, top-15 passing attack in 2021, that now adds creativity and aggressive playcalling with head coach Kevin O'Connell. Cook is in store for a big year and deserves a spot in your lineup against the Packers.

Packers RBs

Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are arguably the top tandem in the league. Their styles complement one another perfectly, creating a dynamic rushing attack with elite pass-catching ability. The high over/under and the team's desire to pound the rock will make both top-24 options against the Vikings.

Vikings WRs

The enthusiasm surrounding this passing attack directly applies to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. These two were both top-12 receivers in 2020 and were on pace for a repeat in 2021 until Thielen got hurt. You can fire up this duo against the Packers and expect big things. There has been some hype regarding K.J. Osborn but the recent addition of Jalen Reagor and the return of tight end Irv Smith Jr. keep him off the radar for Week 1.

Matchups We Hate:

Packers WRs

The Packers are favored in this matchup, their running game is elite, and the Vikings are susceptible on the ground. These are all signs pointing to limited volume for a murky receiving corps. Allen Lazard is the most intriguing option but none of them stand out as someone to force into your lineup against the Vikings.

Other Matchups:

Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)

Rodgers lost one of the greatest receivers in the NFL when Davante Adams was traded to the Raiders. He will continue leading this team and winning games, however, for fantasy purposes, his ceiling has dropped and this is not expected to be a shootout. He's a player to shy away from but not a full don't start.

Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)

Cousins is Mr. Consistent, frequently producing good but great games for fantasy while finishing in the QB10 to QB15 range. There is reason to believe his upside increases in this new system, making him a streaming candidate against the Packers.

Injuries:

Christian Watson (knee)

UPDATE: Allen Lazard (ankle) is doubtful to play. This further decreases the value for Rodgers, and although it offers more opportunity for the other receivers, none stand out as the clear-cut choice to start.

UPDATE: Robert Tonyan will play Sunday. This is intriguing because he had a big year, primarily from touchdown totals, in 2020, and is one of the only remaining options Rodgers trusts. He becomes an upside streaming candidate.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -3.5
Implied Total: Raiders (24.25) vs. Chargers (27.75)
Pace: Raiders (22nd) vs. Chargers (1st)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 12.2% Pass (17th), -15.8% Rush (25th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 33.7% Pass (4th), -4.2% Rush (14th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 10.3% Pass (21st), -13.4% Rush (9th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 7.0% Pass (19th), 2.4% Rush (30th)

Matchups We Love:

Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)

Ekeler finished with a career-high 12 rushing touchdowns, shattering his previous record of three. He also added eight receiving touchdowns, matching his 2019 output. The primary shift for Ekeler was being handed the goal-line role, which he currently has again entering this season. The team has tried desperately to find a competent backup who can alleviate some of the workload for him but no one emerged during the preseason. This prompted them to sign Sony Michel, who may be the answer but that has yet to be seen. Expect Ekeler to compete for the No. 1 overall RB spot against the Raiders in this high-scoring affair.

Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)

Hebert absolutely leveled up in his sophomore season, throwing for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns. The Chargers led the league in pace, while demonstrating a willingness to take risks and be aggressive, resulting in a top-5 passing offense. This AFC west divisional battle features the second-highest over/under of the week, making Herbert an extraordinary player to start.

Chargers WRs

Everything outlined above about Herbert is why the duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will see tons of opportunity with immense upside against the Raiders.

Raiders WRs

This will be the first time in his career Adams sports a different uniform, and what a debut it will be. His arrival decreases the value of Renfrow, but both will be able to co-exist in this high-octane matchup.

Matchups We Hate:

None

Other Matchups:

Raiders RBs

All indications are that this will be a committee backfield with Josh Jacobs as the leader. After earning a career-high 64 targets that resulted in 54 receptions, the team declined his fifth-year option and added more pieces. These additions included rookie Zamir White who figures to be involved in all facets of the game along with veteran Ameer Abdullah who will function more as a satellite back. Jacobs's value is enhanced because of the matchup, moving him into the top-30 range.

Derek Carr (QB, LV)

Carr has passed for more than 4,000 yards in four straight seasons including a career-high 4,804 in 2021. The issue has always been low touchdown totals, only surpassing 28 one time. The hope is that adding Adams as a weapon propels his total into the 32-35 range, at which point he'd be a top-10 option with top-five upside. Carr is a solid start against the Chargers that ranks just outside of the elite tier.

Darren Waller (TE, LV)

Waller struggled with injuries and inconsistent play last year, causing him to finish outside the top-15. After reportedly battling a hamstring injury during the preseason, he is now healthy and ready to go against the Chargers. Although he'll have more target competition with Adams in town, he's still a top-tier tight end and must-play in this matchup.

Injuries:

None

Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
Implied Total: Buccaneers (26.5) vs. Cowboys (24)
Pace: Buccaneers (4th) vs. Cowboys (3rd)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 43.9% Pass (1st), 6.9% Rush (5th)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 32.0% Pass (6th), -4.0% Rush (13th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: 1.8% Pass (11th), -9.2% Rush (14th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -20.5% Pass (2nd), -7.0% Rush (16th)

Matchups We Love:

CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)

Lamb scored an 84.1 grade on PFF, eighth-best among receivers. He also finished 13th in yards per route run, clearing 1,100 receiving yards in the process. Unfortunately, he only generated six touchdowns and lacked consistency, resulting in a WR18 finish in half-PPR scoring. The team traded Cooper away to the Browns, cementing Lamb as the No. 1 option. Furthermore, until Michael Gallup returns healthy, the target competition is very minimal. Lamb is a must-start, entering what is expected to be a breakout year.

Mike Evans (WR, TB)

Evans finds himself in a similar situation with Chris Godwin sidelined to begin the season although the depth chart is a little stronger. Nonetheless, Evans is coming off back-to-back campaigns of 1,000-plus yards and 13-plus touchdowns, illustrating his elite ceiling. He's a strong play in what projects to be another one of the league's highest-scoring matchups.

Bucs RBs

Leonard Fournette was an ADP hero last season, finishing as a top-10 option despite being drafted well outside the top 30. He was impactful on the ground but really made his mark through the air, accumulating 69 receptions for 454 yards and two touchdowns. He finished with the second-most receptions and third-most receiving yards among all running backs. The Buccaneers let Ronald Jones leave in free agency, choosing to replace him in the draft with rookie Rachaad White. White profiles as an excellent receiver himself and impressed during the preseason. Fournette is a great play and White slots in as an upside flex player.

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)

Schultz capitalized on his opportunity when other players were injured last year, catching 78 passes for 808 yards and eight touchdowns, as the TE3. It's doubtful he sustains this production entering 2022 but he'll be a focal point of the offense in this matchup.

Matchups We Hate:

None

Other Matchups:

Jalen Tolbert (WR, DAL)

UPDATE: Jalen Tolbert is officially out for Week 1. He is a healthy scratch.

This is the kind of high-scoring contest to search for secondary players who have the potential to blow up, which is what Tolbert is. The preseason reports have been mixed but their receiving options are limited so he'll have a chance to produce.

Cowboys RBs

The duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard is right up there with the Packers and Browns as the best in the league. Pollard scored an 86.0 PFF grade, finishing fourth among halfbacks, along with the 11th highest elusive rating. Elliot did not look like his usual self, which could be attributed to the PCL tear he experienced. Despite his inefficiency, he still finished as the RB6 (half-PPR) or RB7 (PPR). The matchup isn't favorable for these two but the over/under is high and the Cowboys' offense is lacking weapons, forcing them to rely on their rushing attack. Elliot is still a top-20 play and Pollard remains a worthy flex option.

Injuries:

Michael Gallup (knee)

UPDATE: Chris Godwin is expected to play, although to what extent remains unclear. He's best left on your bench this week.

Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Broncos -6.0
Implied Total: Broncos (25.25) vs. Seahawks (19.25)
Pace: Broncos (28th) vs. Seahawks (6th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 23.4% Pass (11th), -6.1% Rush (16th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 25.9% Pass (8th), 6.2% Rush (6th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 8.6% Pass (20th), -5.2% Rush (21st)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 17.6% Pass (26th), -14.4% Rush (8th)

Matchups We Love:

Broncos RBs

Williams finished with the fifth best elusive rating, second in missed tackles forced, and first in broken tackles, despite playing in a timeshare. He is a budding superstar with elite efficiency and explosiveness. Melvin Gordon was not far behind, finishing seventh in both missed tackles forced and broken tackles, joining Williams as a top-20 back. These two were impressive without Russell Wilson and now have sky-high potential. Both will excel against the Seahawks.

Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)

This team is loaded on offense and will be led by Wilson in 2022. As a perennial top-12 quarterback, sometimes with subpar talent around him, Wilson is set up for a massive season. Add in the revenge narrative and he's in a great spot against the Seahawks below average pass defense.

Matchups We Hate:

Seahawks WRs

The duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett has been fantasy gold but that is no longer the case. This offense will feature Geno Smith as the starter, which is a tremendous downgrade from the aforementioned Wilson. Either could catch a touchdown and salvage their day but neither possesses much of a floor or ceiling against the Broncos.

Other Matchups:

Broncos WRs

Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy will take over as the new receiver duo for Wilson. Sutton showcased his production in 2019 surpassing 1,000 yards and hauling in six touchdowns. Jeudy has yet to actualize his potential but all the raw abilities exist. The only drawback for these two is that this game projects to be over early, which may entice the Broncos to close the game out with their rushing attack. Both are still startable but this is not a plus matchup.

Rashaad Penny (RB, SEA)

Penny ended the season on fire as the overall RB1 during the final seven weeks of the season. Chris Carson retired due to a neck injury, leading the team to acquire Kenneth Walker III in round two of the draft. Walker III is currently sidelined after undergoing a hernia procedure, reducing the competition for Penny. The concern is that he'll still share work with DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer, plus this offense will need to throw the ball to catch up. Penny is a risky start against the Broncos.

Injuries:

Kenneth Walker III (hernia)

Greg Dulcich (hamstring)