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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 13 matchup analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. We hope everyone is having a successful fantasy season so far! We're now in the stretch run, so it's time to lock in those playoff spots or play spoiler against your competitors! Let's take a look at this week's matchups.
For those who are not familiar, each week I'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Special thanks to PFF, RotoViz, RotoWire, Football Outsiders, FantasyPros, rbsdm.com, and Add More Funds for providing valuable information.
This year I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games, and we will have separate articles for the Thursday Night Football matchups and Monday Night Football matchups. Be sure to read those as well. So join me as I help get your fantasy teams off to a strong start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Philadephia Eagles at New York Jets
Spread: Eagles -6.5
Implied Total: Eagles (26.0) vs. Jets (19.5)
Pace: Eagles (3rd) vs. Jets (16th)
Scheme: Eagles (51% Pass, 49% Rush) vs. Jets (57% Pass, 43% Rush)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 12.8% Pass (17th), 10.4% Rush (3rd)
Jets Def. DVOA: 29.5% Pass (31st), -0.6% Rush (30th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 13.6% Pass (23rd), -10.9% Rush (16th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -7.0% Pass (28th), -7.3% Rush (14th)
Matchups We Love:
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
Miles Sanders let us down last week against the Giants, finishing as RB35 in PPR formats. However, it was still an efficient game as he rushed nine times for 64 yards (7.1 YPC). Sanders banged up his ankle in the game, which resulted in more work for Boston Scott (15 ATT, 64 YDS, 1 TD). The good news is that Sanders is ready to go for this one. He goes up against a Jets defense that ranks 31st in Rush Expected Points Added (EPA), allowing the most PPR per game to running backs. We can consider Sanders as a high-end RB2 in this spot. There's also a chance that the Eagles lean on him more with Jalen Hurts dealing with an ankle injury. Jordan Howard and Boston Scott missed practice all week, so it could be wheels up for Miles. Go right back to the well and don't let last week's disappointment deter you.
UPDATE: Jordan Howard has been ruled out for Week 13.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Like Smith, Dallas Goedert showed how low his floor can be in this run-heavy offense last week, catching only one pass for zero yards on three targets. We could see Hurts forced to throw more in this game due to his limited mobility, which could benefit Goedert as well since he's posted a 22.1% target share since Week 9. The Jets are tied for 23rd in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, so this is an exploitable matchup. There's also the chance that the Eagles made it a point of emphasis to get their playmaking tight end more involved after a quiet game against the Giants. Bet on a bounce-back for Goedert here, especially if Gardner Minshew starts.
Matchups We Hate:
Zach Wilson (QB, NYJ)
Zach Wilson returned to the lineup last week to take on a Texans defense that ranks 6th in pass DVOA and ended up disappointing, completing 58.3 percent of his passes at 6.0 yards per attempt. While he added a rushing touchdown, this is not a player who you want to be starting in fantasy football unless you're desperate in SuperFlex formats. The Eagles are 16th in Dropback EPA, but Wilson ranks dead-last EPA plus Completion Percentage Over Expected. Simply put, he's been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL this season.
Jets RBs
Tevin Coleman (16 ATT, 67 YDS, 3 TGT, 2 REC, 3 YDS) led the way in this backfield, with Ty Johnson (6 ATT, 42 YDS, 1 TGT) acting as the change-of-pace. However, this was in a game where the Jets had a positive game script, as they were playing with the lead against the Texans. The Jets project to play from behind against the Eagles here, which would bode well for Johnson, who is the superior pass-catching back (39 targets this season). They take on an Eagles defense that ranks 12th in Rush EPA but tied for 24th in PPR per game allowed to running backs. This is a matchup to avoid since it's a committee on a bad offense, but I'd lean towards Johnson if deciding between the two.
Other Matchups:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Jalen Hurts had a down game against the Giants, finishing as QB27 for the week. It was only his second finish outside the Top-12 quarterbacks this season, demonstrating how high a floor he's had due to his rushing production. The problem here is that he's currently dealing with an ankle injury, which is serious enough to question his status for this game. While he did get limited practices all week, there's a chance that this injury limits his mobility, which caps his ceiling here. This is a good matchup against a Jets defense that ranks 31st in Dropback EPA, but the injury keeps Hurts in the lukewarm section. He's looking like a game-time decision.
UPDATE: Jalen Hurts has officially been ruled out for Week 13.
DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)
Last week demonstrated the risk with DeVonta Smith because of this run-heavy offense, as the rookie wideout caught 2-of-4 targets for 22 yards. There's a chance that Jalen Hurts will run at a lower rate due to his ankle injury, which could result in more pass attempts, benefitting Smith. Smith would also be helped if Minshew starts. He leads the team with a 23.5% target share and 37.2% air yard share. The Jets are allowing 8.94 yards per target to wide receivers, which ranks 26th in the NFL. We can consider Smith as an upside WR3 in this spot.
Elijah Moore (WR, NYJ)
Elijah Moore had a down week in Zach Wilson's return, catching 4-of-8 targets for 46 yards against the Texans. Prior to that, he had combined for 24 receptions, 336 yards, and four touchdowns in his previous four games. The rookie has established himself as the top target in this passing game. Veteran wideout Corey Davis got in a limited practice on Friday after missing the other two practices with the groin injury that kept him out in Week 12. If he's out, this could open up more opportunities for Moore. However, we have to keep Moore in the lukewarm section against an Eagles defense that ranks 12th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts. Cornerback Darius Slay (83.6 Coverage Grade on PFF) has been one of the best corners in the NFL. We could see Jamison Crowder get more involved after a slow week (1 REC, 5 YDS), but he's just a desperation play.
Injuries:
PHI QB Jalen Hurts (ankle)
PHI RB Jordan Howard (knee)
PHI RB Boston Scott (illness)
NYJ WR Corey Davis (groin)
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
Spread: Cardinals -7.5
Implied Total: Cardinals (26.5) vs. Bears (19.0)
Pace: Cardinals (17th) vs. Bears (21st)
Scheme: Cardinals (56% Pass, 44% Rush) vs. Bears (50% Pass, 50% Rush)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: 36.2% Pass (3rd), -13.9% Rush (24th)
Bears Def. DVOA: 9.2% Pass (17th), -7.4% Rush (19th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: -13.4% Pass (3rd), -11.2% Rush (15th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -5.8% Pass (27th), -8.2% Rush (17th)
Matchups We Love:
James Conner (RB, ARI)
James Conner has finished in the Top-12 four times this season, including two Top-7 finishes in his last three games. One of those games was an overall RB1 finish. Conner has averaged 17.3 carries and five targets per game since Chase Edmonds went down with a high ankle sprain. The Cardinals are 7.5-point road favorites here, so this projects as a positive game script for Conner. You also have to consider that the team may opt to take it easy with Kyler Murray if he plays in this game. Conner takes on a Bears defense that ranks 25th in Rush EPA, so this is an exploitable matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Andy Dalton (QB, CHI)
Andy Dalton is ready to start for another week, this time in a much tougher matchup. Arizona's defense is likely to cause fits for this passing game, as their pass coverage and pass-rush rank among the best in the NFL. This defense is much more susceptible on the ground than through the air, so we could see the Bears lean on David Montgomery here. Dalton could be under duress early and often against this vaunted pass-rush.
Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI)
Darnell Mooney has been rolling lately, catching 10-of-24 targets for 244 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. The problem here is that he takes on one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. The Cardinals rank 3rd in Pass DVOA and 1st in Dropback EPA. They're tied for 2nd in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers. Arizona also has a 7.2% Adjusted Sack Rate, which ranks 5th in the NFL. The Bears have struggled in pass protection (10.7% Adjusted Sack Rate, 32nd), so this is an awful matchup. Expect the Bears to try to attack this Cardinals defense on the ground. The only thing going for Mooney here is that Allen Robinson is out for another week.
Other Matchups:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Kyler Murray has been able to get in limited practices all week, but he's looking like a game-time decision once again. While there's risk that he won't run as much in his first game back as he takes it easy with his ankle, you still have to fire him up in this spot. The Bears rank 19th in Dropback EPA, so this is an exploitable matchup. There's also always the chance that Murray just runs in a short red-zone touchdown. He's more of a low-end QB1 this week, but I think you need to start him if he's able to play.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
DeAndre Hopkins got in a limited practice on Wednesday and Thursday, but then missed Friday's practice, which is bad news for his status. You have to think that if he does play, it'll be at full capacity because the Cardinals have played it cautious with their veteran wideout. Hopkins goes up against a Bears defense that is tied for 25th in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers, making this a strong matchup. However, we could see the Cardinals lean on James Conner in this game, keeping Hopkins in the lukewarm section.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Christian Kirk will likely see fewer targets if Hopkins is back in the fold, but this is a great matchup. The Bears have been scorched downfield by opposing wideouts, as they rank last in the NFL with 9.53 yards per target allowed to the position. Kirk has an 11.1 average depth of target (aDOT), so he could get loose against this vulnerable secondary. The issue here is that A.J. Green (12.2 aDOT) and DeAndre Hopkins (12.1 aDOT) also run deep routes, so it's hard to predict if it's Kirk who goes off. There is also Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore taking up underneath targets. That keeps Kirk in the lukewarm section. However, if Hopkins is out again but Murray plays, Kirk would jump to the 'Love' section.
Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)
Zach Ertz has been fantastic since joining the Cardinals, catching 22-of-29 targets for 269 yards and three touchdowns. He's put up an impressive 19.6% target share during that span, which is excellent usage for a tight end. Ertz goes up against a Bears defense that is allowing the eighth-fewest PPR per game to tight ends. You also have to consider the fact that most of Ertz's production came without DeAndre Hopkins, so there's a good chance that we'll see less volume for the veteran tight end. This keeps him in the lukewarm section.
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
David Montgomery has dominated the workload since returning from injury, so don't get too discouraged by his dud against the Lions: 17 ATT, 46 YDS, 3 REC, 28 YDS. He now goes up against a Cardinals defense that ranks 3rd in Rush EPA, but 30th in yards per carry (4.71). I would expect the Bears to lean on their running game, especially if Justin Fields is under center. While it's a tough game environment with the Bears as 7.5-point underdogs with a low implied team total, I have to leave Monty as a volume-based, high-end RB2 here.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Cole Kmet was able to get in a limited practice on Thursday, which indicates that he should be able to go this week. That's good news because he should see an elevated target share with Allen Robinson out for another game. Kmet is coming off a strong performance against the Lions, where he caught 8-of-11 targets for 65 yards. The second-year tight end has now racked up 33 targets in his last six games. The Cardinals are allowing the second-fewest PPR per game to tight ends, but Kmet's recent volume keeps him in the lukewarm section.
Injuries:
ARI QB Kyler Murray (ankle)
ARI WR DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring)
CHI WR Allen Robinson (hamstring)
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Spread: Vikings -7
Implied Total: Vikings (26.75) vs. Lions (19.75)
Pace: Vikings (7th) vs. Lions (28th)
Scheme: Vikings (59% Pass, 41% Rush) vs. Lions (50% Pass, 50% Rush)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 37.6% Pass (2nd), -21.3% Rush (29th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 23.0% Pass (28th), -6.3% Rush (21st)
Vikings Def. DVOA: 2.1% Pass (10th), -0.7% Rush (29th)
Lions Off. DVOA: -19.2% Pass (32nd), -11.9% Rush (22nd)
Matchups We Love:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Kirk Cousins is in an absolute smash spot against a Lions defense that ranks 32nd in Dropback EPA. This defense is allowing 8.25 yards per attempt, which is also last in the NFL. Cousins' fantasy finishes: QB14, QB6, QB5, QB28, QB21, QB2, QB21, QB6, QB6, QB6, QB12. That's four consecutive Top-12 finishes for Cousins and it's unlikely that will change given this cupcake matchup. Cousins is the most underrated quarterback in fantasy football. Consider him a Top-10 option in this terrific spot.
Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN)
Alexander Mattison has done nothing but produce when Dalvin Cook was forced to miss time. In two starts this year, he's combined for 51 carries, 225 yards, 13 receptions, 99 yards, and a touchdown. That's elite RB1-type production. He now gets to go up against a Lions defense that is tied for 27th in PPR per game allowed to running backs. The Vikings are 7-point road favorites, so this projects as a positive game script for Mattison. Consider him as an RB1 in this spot. However, it's worth noting that the Lions defense is actually better against the run than pass, as they rank 14th in Rush EPA.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Justin Jefferson had a down week against the 49ers (4 REC, 83 YDS), which speaks to how red-hot he had been prior to this game: 17 receptions, 312 yards, and two touchdowns. He should be able to have his way with the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Lions are tied for 10th in PPR per game to wideouts, but that's only due to lack of volume, as teams have just run the ball while playing with the lead. Detroit is giving up 9.23 yards per target, which is the second-highest in the NFL. Jefferson caught 7-of-8 targets for 124 yards when these two teams played earlier in the season. He's an elite WR1 in this spot.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)
Adam Thielen just keeps finding the endzone. He caught 5-of-7 targets for 62 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers. The veteran now has six touchdowns in his last six games, up to 10 for the season. Like Jefferson, Thielen has a fantastic matchup here, but he has considerably less upside due to the lower yardage output (686 yards to Jefferson's 1,027). This game profiles as more of a Jefferson game, but you can still fire up Thielen as a rock-solid WR2 with some of the highest touchdown equity in the league at his position.
Jamaal Williams (RB, DET)
Jamaal Williams takes over as the lead back with D'Andre Swift out with a shoulder injury. The veteran back rushed 15 times for 65 yards with five catches for 18 yards against the Bears. That looks like the type of usage we'll see in this spot, as he's one of the few dependable offensive players on this roster right now. Williams goes up against a Vikings defense that ranks 32nd in Rush EPA, so this is a fantastic matchup. Consider Williams as a plug-and-play, high-end RB2 in this spot. Expect him to be the focal point of this Lions offense.
Matchups We Hate:
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Jared Goff laid another egg against the Bears on Thanksgiving, completing 21-of-25 passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns. He takes on a Vikings defense that ranks 26th in PPR per game allowed to quarterbacks, but they're also 8th in Dropback EPA, so this isn't exactly an easy matchup. Goff will likely continue to struggle, especially without his best weapon in running back D'Andre Swift. Hopefully, you have a better option to play at SuperFlex if you're desperate in that type of format.
Other Matchups:
Tyler Conklin (TE, MIN)
Tyler Conklin had a bad game against the 49ers, catching 2-of-3 targets for 25 yards. He's now combined for only eight receptions, 71 yards, and two touchdowns in his last three games. The good news here is that he's got a great chance to find the endzone with the Vikings as 7-point favorites with a high implied team total. The Lions rank 15th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends. Having said that, we have to leave Conklin in the lukewarm section given his volatile production due to low volume. He's a touchdown-dependent streamer.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
T.J. Hockenson caught all three of his targets for 35 yards and a touchdown last week. It's likely that we could see a bit more volume with Swift sidelined, as Hockenson is now firmly established as the best player in this offense. The Vikings have been really tough on tight ends, allowing the third-most PPR per game to the position. However, this is a case where we can bet on the volume. Expect Hockenson to lead the team in targets here, which keeps him on the TE1 radar given the lack of production at the position. However, he's in the lukewarm section given the Lions' recent run-heavy tendencies.
Injuries:
DET RB D'Andre Swift (shoulder)
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -5
Implied Total: Giants (18.0) vs. Dolphins (23.0)
Pace: Giants (13th) vs. Dolphins (10th)
Scheme: Giants (59% Pass, 41% Rush) vs. Dolphins (62% Pass, 38% Rush)
Giants Off. DVOA: -4.1% Pass (25th), -18.8% Rush (28th)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 7.9% Pass (14th), -12.7% Rush (12th)
Giants Def. DVOA: -3.3% Pass (7th), 1.3% Rush (31st)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 5.6% Pass (21st), -26.7% Rush (30th)
Matchups We Love:
Myles Gaskin (RB, MIA)
Myles Gaskin has quietly become a high-usage player in Miami, combining for 73 carries and 14 targets in his last four games. That's good news against a Giants defense that ranks 30th in Rush EPA, allowing the third-most PPR per game to running backs. This also projects as a positive game script with the Dolphins as five-point favorites. While Phillip Lindsay had 12 carries for 42 yards in his first game with the Dolphins, he's not a threat to Gaskin's passing-game usage. Consider Gaskin as an upside RB2 in this strong matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Mike Glennon (QB, NYG)
Daniel Jones is currently nursing a neck injury, which will force him to miss this game. That leaves Mike Glennon as the starter, which is bad news for this offense as a whole. Glennon averaged 6.0 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and five interceptions in five games for the Jaguars last season. Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard are doubtful for this game, which leaves Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, and Darius Slayton as the main targets.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tua Tagovailoa has slowed down from a fantasy standpoint, finishing as QB18, QB16, QB13, and QB20 in his last four games. This game projects to be low-scoring, which does not bode well for Tua's upside here. The Giants rank 12th in Dropback EPA, so this is a tough pass defense. They're also tied for 6th in PPR per game allowed to quarterbacks. I would expect the Dolphins to try to lean on their running game and defense in this game. Look elsewhere if you need a streamer this week.
Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA)
Jaylen Waddle is having a phenomenal rookie season. He's put up 68 targets in his seven games. You have to love that high usage. The problem here is that the Giants have made life difficult on opposing wideouts, tied for 2nd in yards per target allowed (7.06). The other negative for Waddle is that DeVante Parker has a good chance to return for this game, which would eat into the rookie's target share. While I love Waddle as a player, this projects as more of a floor week. Consider him a low-upside WR3 in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
Saquon Barkley has combined for 19 carries and 10 receptions in two games since returning from injury. We can expect the Giants to lean on him with Mike Glennon under center. There's a chance that Barkley gets peppered with check-down targets with Glennon. The Dolphins rank 9th in PPR per game allowed to running backs, but this is a bet on volume and talent with Barkley. We can consider him as a volume-based RB1 in a lukewarm matchup here.
Kenny Golladay (WR, NYG)
Kenny Golladay will have a chance to have his breakout game with the Giants because Kadarius Toney is out for this game. The Dolphins rank 30th in PPR per game allowed to opposing wideouts, so this is a good matchup. Golladay caught 3-of-7 targets for 50 yards in his first game with new play-caller Freddie Kitchens. The seven targets was the second-highest total of the season for Golladay. We can consider him as an upside WR4 in this spot. I'll leave him in the lukewarm section given his volatile production, but I think this could be a spike week for Golladay, even with Golladay starting.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
I'm bullish on Engram's fantasy outlook with Kitchens as play-caller, as the former Browns offensive coordinator helped David Njoku have a career year while he was with the team. Engram caught 3-of-6 targets for 37 yards against the Eagles last week. We'll likely see a condensed target share with the Giants since Shepard and Toney are out, which bodes well for Engram. Like Golladay, he stays in the lukewarm section due to lack of production, but I like this spot for him. The Dolphins rank 18th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Mike Gesicki has really hit a wall lately, catching 8-of-16 targets for 67 yards in his last three games. He now takes on a Giants defense that ranks 17th in PPR per game to tight ends, so perhaps he can get back on track. The return of DeVante Parker could actually help Gesicki out a bit, as Parker's ability to make contested catches downfield could open up room for Gesicki to do some damage in the slot with underneath targets. I'll keep him in the lukewarm section given his recent low production.
Injuries:
NYG QB Daniel Jones (neck)
NYG WR Sterling Shepard (quad)
NYG WR Kadarius Toney (oblique/quad)
MIA WR DeVante Parker (hamstring)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Buccaneers -11
Implied Total: Buccaneers (30.75) vs. Falcons (19.75)
Pace: Buccaneers (11th) vs. Falcons (12th)
Scheme: Buccaneers (65% Pass, 35% Rush) vs. Falcons (58% Pass, 42% Rush)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 43.5% Pass (1st), 10.4% Rush (2nd)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 23.4% Pass (29th), -5.6% Rush (23rd)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: -1.2% Pass (8th), -17.4% Rush (6th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: -4.3% Pass (26th), -36.5% Rush (31st)
Matchups We Love:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Tom Brady is coming off one of his worst fantasy games of the season, finishing as QB22 against the Colts, as running back Leonard Fournette stole all of the touchdowns. Luckily, Brady is in a smash spot against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in Dropback EPA. This defense is tied for 17th in PPR per game allowed to quarterbacks. The Bucs have nearly a 31-point implied team total, so you have to love Brady's chances at a bounce-back here. He's been able to shred this Falcons defense throughout his Bucs career.
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
Leonard Fournette is coming off his biggest game of the season, rushing 17 times for 100 yards and three touchdowns while catching 7-of-8 targets for 31 yards and a touchdown. The veteran back has now been targeted 23 times in his last three games. He's been one of the biggest steals of the season, establishing himself as a Top-12 back. This is a good matchup with the Bucs as 11-point favorites with a high implied team total in a positive game script. The Falcons rank 6th in Rush EPA, but Fournette's passing game usage makes him matchup-proof. Bet on the volume, game script, and touchdown equity over defensive efficiency metrics here.
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
Chris Godwin had a really slow week against the Colts, catching 4-of-5 targets for 24 yards. We could see the Bucs make it a priority to get their stud wideout more involved this time around. The Falcons rank 22nd in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, so this is an exploitable matchup. Antonio Brown is going to be out for this game, so Godwin should continue to see a heavy workload. Godwin leads the team with a 21.8% target share with Brown out of the lineup. That number is better than it looks when you consider that the Bucs are the most pass-heavy team in the NFL. It's wheels up for Godwin in this spot.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
It's also a great spot for Mike Evans, who is similarly coming off a down week: 3 REC, 16 YDS. Prior to this game, Evans had scored six touchdowns in his previous four, three of which came in one game. Evans has among the highest touchdown equity in the NFL, tied to a stud quarterback in an elite pass-heavy offense. He's an upside WR2 every week, regardless of matchup. When Evans faced the Falcons earlier this year, he caught 5-of-9 targets for 75 yards and two touchdowns. He's got a chance to smash here.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
Rob Gronkowski has been an absolute beast since returning from injury, combining for 13 receptions and 194 yards in two games. He's now averaging 15.1 PPR per game, which ranks 3rd among tight ends. Gronk takes on a Falcons defense that ranks 12th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, but I'm not too concerned about that given the high implied team total as well as Gronk's touchdown equity. The veteran has firmly established himself as a weekly Top-5 option at tight end. Fire him up with confidence.
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, ATL)
What an absolutely amazing season for Cordarrelle Patterson. He's currently RB6 in PPR per game, as he's cemented himself as the top option in this offense. Patterson is coming off a great game against the Jaguars, where he rushed 16 times for 108 yards and two touchdowns along with two receptions for 27 yards. While the Bucs run defense is tough (5th in Rush EPA), Patterson's ability to make an impact in the passing game makes him matchup-proof. Consider him as an RB1 with the Falcons likely forced to air it out here.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Kyle Pitts has hit the proverbial rookie wall lately, catching 14-of-31 targets for 190 yards in his last five games. However, I like his chances at a bounce-back in this spot. For one, the Falcons will have to air it out to keep pace with this high-octane Bucs offense. Secondly, the Bucs rank 27th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends. They just allowed Jack Doyle to go off for six receptions, 81 yards, and a touchdown. Consider Pitts as one of the best tight ends on this week's slate.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this projected shootout.
Other Matchups:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Matt Ryan hasn't been viable in fantasy football for the last three weeks, finishing as QB33, QB30, and QB25 during that span. This keeps him in the lukewarm section because I do like the spot this week. This is a pass-heavy game script with the Falcons as 11-point home underdogs. The Bucs rank 7th in Dropback EPA, but they are tied for 26th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The last time these two teams met, Ryan attempted 46 passes for 300 yards. While the efficiency wasn't there, the volume was, which keeps him in play as a streamer.
Russell Gage (WR, ATL)
Russell Gage is clearly the top wideout in this passing game with Calvin Ridley out of the lineup. Gage has caught 11-of-15 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. The Bucs rank 19th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, so we could see Gage flirt with WR3 value in this pass-heavy game script. While he isn't really an exciting play given his lack of big-play ability, the volume could be there to make him viable, especially in PPR formats.
Injuries:
TB WR Antonio Brown (ankle, suspended)
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -3
Implied Total: Chargers (23.75) vs. Bengals (26.75)
Pace: Chargers (2nd) vs. Bengals (29th)
Scheme: Chargers (62% Pass, 38% Rush) vs. Bengals (57% Pass, 43% Rush)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 31.1% Pass (8th), -4.3% Rush (10th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 9.7% Pass (19th), -14.7% Rush (9th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 2.3% Pass (11th), 5.3% Rush (32nd)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 3.2% Pass (24th), -7.8% Rush (15th)
Matchups We Love:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Justin Herbert has been inconsistent at times, but he's shown a high ceiling: QB3, QB1, QB2, and QB1 finishes. This game projects as a shootout, with both implied team totals over 23 points. There's a chance that we see Herbert go shot-for-shot with Joe Burrow in a close game with a ton of points. The Chargers play at the second-fastest pace in the NFL, which could force the Bengals to play at a faster pace as well. Cincinnati ranks 6th in Dropback EPA and tied for 7th in PPR per game allowed to quarterbacks, but I'm not too concerned with the matchup. I'm more interested in the volume (62% pass rate in neutral game scripts) along with Herbert's high ceiling. This is a massive game for the Chargers' playoff hopes. I expect Herbert to come through with a big performance.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Like Herbert, Austin Ekeler has shown a massive ceiling this year: RB3, RB1, RB3, and RB2 finishes. Ekeler has elite passing game usage along with high touchdown equity (14 total touchdowns this season), making him one of the best running backs in fantasy football. You can expect a large workload in this game. Cincinnati ranks 9th in Rush EPA, but they've allowed 107 targets to running backs, which is the most in the NFL. Ekeler has a chance to hit his ceiling in this spot. Expect a lot of fireworks in this game.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Keenan Allen has been a target machine of late, catching 42-of-58 targets for 476 yards and a touchdown in his last five games. He's put up a 31.2% target share and 36.6% air yard share during that stretch. The Bengals rank 12th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, but this is a bet on volume and game environment over matchup. Expect Allen to continue to get peppered with targets in this spot, making him one of the safest wideouts on the slate, especially in PPR formats.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Joe Mixon has been simply on fire lately, finishing as RB2, RB4, RB4, and RB2 in his last four games. He's rushed for 288 yards on 58 carries in his last two games - that's terrific usage. This is a smash spot against a Chargers defense that ranks 31st in Rush EPA, allowing the fourth-most PPR per game to running backs. Mixon should be able to put up efficient production on high volume with high touchdown equity, making him one of the top backs on the slate. Consider him an elite RB1 in this spot.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Ja'Marr Chase is another promising rookie that's hit a wall lately. He's caught 15-of-31 targets for 152 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games. The Chargers are allowing the second-fewest PPR per game to opposing wideouts, so this is definitely a tough matchup. However, this is a bet on talent and game environment. I think that we're going to see a ton of points in this one, which gives Chase a great chance at finding the endzone. It's also worth noting that Chargers' promising rookie corner Asante Samuel Jr. missed Wednesday's practice with a concussion, which could cause him to miss this game. Bet on the Chase bounce-back here.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this projected shootout.
Other Matchups:
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Mike Williams has fallen back to being the volatile WR3 that he's been throughout his career, catching 19-of-35 targets for 273 yards and a touchdown in his last six games. Keenan Allen has dominated the target share, which makes Williams a boom-or-bust option. We could see the Chargers pass at a higher rate than usual here, especially if this game turns into a shootout as I expect, which gives Williams a higher floor and upside in this spot. Having said that, I have to leave him in the lukewarm section given his recent poor production.
Jared Cook (TE, LAC)
Jared Cook hasn't been good in fantasy football, but he does have three touchdowns and is tied to a stud young quarterback in a pass-heavy offense. This game should feature a ton of passing volume, which puts Cook in play as a viable streamer. The Bengals rank 16th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, so this is an exploitable matchup. If you're desperate for a streamer at tight end, look to the veteran here, as I think he has a good chance at finding the endzone in this spot.
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Joe Burrow hasn't been good in fantasy lately, finishing outside the Top-20 in two of his last three games. While he finished as QB10 last week, that was partly because of his rare rushing touchdown. Joe Mixon's hot streak has resulted in more floor weeks for Burrow. The Chargers rank 17th in Dropback EPA, but are allowing the fifth-fewest PPR per game to quarterbacks. This is why I have to keep Burrow in the lukewarm section. However, it would not surprise me to see a big game because I think we'll see a ton of points here.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Tee Higgins came alive against the Steelers last week, catching 6-of-8 targets for 114 yards and a touchdown. It was his first 100-yard game of the season. We could easily see Higgins build on this game and have another strong performance instead of Chase, but I still have to put him behind the dynamic rookie. Higgins simply has not shown a ceiling nearly as high as Chase, which is why we have to put the second-year wideout in the lukewarm section. Having said that, I like him as an upside WR3 in this spot.
C.J. Uzomah (TE, CIN)
I'm also interested in C.J. Uzomah as a streamer, simply because he's shown a high ceiling this year, finishing as overall TE1 in two games. The Chargers have been vulnerable to tight ends this season, allowing the fourth-most PPR per game to the position. We've seen Uzomah make big plays with defenses focused on containing the Bengals studs on the perimeter. Perhaps that could happen again in this spot. If you desperately need a tight end, look no further than Uzomah.
Injuries:
There aren't any fantasy-relevant injuries in this game.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Spread: Colts -8.5
Implied Total: Colts (27.0) vs. Texans (18.5)
Pace: Colts (26th) vs. Texans (23rd)
Scheme: Colts (56% Pass, 44% Rush) vs. Texans (54% Pass, 46% Rush)
Colts Off. DVOA: 12.1% Pass (18th), 11.4% Rush (1st)
Texans Def. DVOA: -5.6% Pass (6th), -5.0% Rush (25th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 11.5% Pass (20th), -19.4% Rush (3rd)
Texans Off. DVOA: -15.3% Pass (30th), -44.3% Rush (32nd)
Matchups We Love:
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Jonathan Taylor is set up for another spike week against a Texans defense that ranks 26th in Rush EPA, 23rd in PPR per game allowed to running backs, and 32nd in yards per carry (4.79). The Colts are 8.5-point road favorites in this game, so this projects as a positive game script with a ton of running plays. Taylor has finished in the Top-12 running backs in nine consecutive games, including six Top-5 finishes. He's the overall RB1 and should be able to smash in this terrific spot.
Tyrod Taylor (QB, HOU)
Tyrod Taylor has finished as QB12 and QB13 in his last two games, combining for 58 rushing yards and two touchdowns during that stretch. He takes on a Colts defense that has been vulnerable against the pass, ranking 24th in Dropback EPA and 28th in PPR per game allowed to the position. The Texans will likely be playing from behind in this game, which could force Taylor to air it out at a higher rate. More passing volume also means more rushing opportunities. Taylor is a viable streamer in this spot.
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
This is a good matchup for Brandin Cooks since it projects as a pass-heavy game script. Cooks has combined for only five receptions for 63 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. However, the Colts rank 27th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts. Since I expect an uptick in passing volume here, that bodes well for Cooks' chances at double-digit targets against a vulnerable secondary. I think that he's an upside WR3 in this positive game environment. I'm betting on high usage this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Carson Wentz (QB, IND)
Carson Wentz had a great game against the Bucs, finishing as QB3 on the week. However, this is a bad spot for him against a run-funnel Texans defense. Houston has surprisingly been stout against the pass, ranking 6th in pass DVOA. I would expect the Colts to control the game on the ground. This team loves to run the ball in the red-zone, so we could be looking at an efficient game with limited touchdowns and volume from Wentz. Quarterback is such a deep position, so I'm willing to look elsewhere if I need a streamer here.
Jack Doyle (TE, IND)
Jack Doyle had a spike week against the Bucs, catching six balls for 81 yards and a touchdown. However, I'm not willing to fire him up as a steamer in this run-heavy game script. Houston ranks 25th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, so it's a good matchup, but it's just too tough to trust Doyle due to the projected low passing volume. Keep an eye on him to see if he can build on last week's performance, but I would not consider him as a streamer in this spot.
Texans RBs
The Texans running backs weren't able to get it done against the Jets, who have hemorrhaged fantasy production on the ground all season long. It's hard to see an outcome where they get it going against the Colts, who have been very good against the run, ranking 7th in Rush EPA, allowing the seventh-fewest PPR per game to running backs. David Johnson (three targets) is the preferred option due to his usage in the passing game, but Rex Burkhead (30 attempts in last two games) can easily vulture a touchdown. However, Johnson is dealing with an illness and thigh injury, so it could be the Burkhead show. Still, it's tough to get excited about this situation.
Other Matchups:
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Michael Pittman Jr. disappointed in a smash spot against the Bucs last week, catching 4-of-10 targets for 53 yards in a pass-heavy game script. He only has 26 targets in his last four games, so the volume hasn't been there lately. It's hard to see how there will be much volume in this game, as the Colts should be able to control it on the ground with Jonathan Taylor. Having said that, Pittman has shown a high ceiling this year with three Top-12 finishes. This is why I'll leave him in the lukewarm section.
Injuries:
HOU RB David Johnson (illness/thigh)
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 ET Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Rams -12.5
Implied Total: Jaguars (17.5) vs. Rams (30.0)
Pace: Jaguars (4th) vs. Rams (6th)
Scheme: Jaguars (56% Pass, 44% Rush) vs. Rams (62% Pass, 38% Rush)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: -10.4% Pass (29th), 4.3% Rush (5th)
Rams Def. DVOA: 3.4% Pass (12th), -14.8% Rush (8th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 31.2% Pass (32nd), -11.7% Rush (14th)
Rams Off. DVOA: 33.1% Pass (5th), -4.6% Rush (11th)
Matchups We Love:
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Matthew Stafford is not on the injury report this week, which is great news in a cupcake matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 32nd in Pass DVOA and 30th in Dropback EPA. Jacksonville is tied for 7th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but that's only because of limited volume since opponents start running the ball while up multiple scores. The Jags are giving up 7.91 yards per attempt, which ranks 29th in the NFL. Stafford has finished as QB17, QB19, and QB5 in his last three games. Another Top-5 finish is on the horizon.
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Cooper Kupp has been remarkably consistent this season, finishing in the Top-12 in eight of his 11 games. Kupp has also put up double-digit targets in 10 of his 11 games. This is a smash spot against a Jaguars defense allowing 9.12 yards per target to wideouts, which ranks 29th in the NFL. While there's risk that the Rams take the proverbial foot off the gas while up multiple scores here, you have to love the matchup and implied team total (30.25 points). Kupp is a Top-3 wideout every week, but there's a greater probability of a spike week in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Trevor Lawrence has quite possibly been the most disappointing player in football this season. Hyped as a generational prospect, the former Clemson star is averaging only 6.0 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Lawrence ranks 31st among quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE, demonstrating how much he's struggled this season. He goes up against a Rams defense that ranks 13th in Dropback EPA and tied for 13th in fantasy points allowed per game. It's highly unlikely that we see a breakout game from Lawrence here.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
Speaking of disappointing players, no tight end has done less with his usage than Tyler Higbee. Higbee ranks 11th among tight ends in targets, but he's only averaging 8.3 PPR per game, which is TE19 on the season. Higbee takes on a Jaguars' defense that ranks 21st in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, but Higbee has failed to eclipse 30 yards in three of his last four games. This is a touchdown-dependent player who is an underwhelming option, even at a weak position like tight end.
Other Matchups:
James Robinson (RB, JAX)
James Robinson continues to produce, despite playing in one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The second-year back is averaging 15.2 PPR per game (RB16), finishing in the Top-12 in five of his 10 games. We can expect a heavy workload for Robinson in this game. Even if the Jags fall behind multiple scores, Robinson can rack up a few check-downs. The Rams rank 19th in Rush EPA and tied for 14th in PPR per game allowed to running backs, so this is where the Jags need to attack this defense. Consider Robinson as a rock-solid RB2.
Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB, LAR)
Darrell Henderson Jr. is in a great spot with the Rams as 12.5-point home favorites, as this projects as a positive game script with more potential volume. However, Henderson is dealing with a thigh injury that kept him out of Wednesday's practice, so we'll have to monitor his status as the week progresses. If Henderson can't go, Sony Michel would presumably slot right into a heavy workload, making him an upside RB2. The Jaguars' defense has actually been better against the run, ranking 14th in rush DVOA, but the game script and implied team total is too good to pass up. Henderson is only in the lukewarm section due to injury concerns.
UPDATE: Darrell Henderson is questionable for Week 13.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, LAR)
Odell Beckham Jr. had his first big game with the Rams last week, catching 5-of-10 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown, which was a 54-yard score. This demonstrates his tantalizing upside while catching passes from Matthew Stafford in this prolific passing game. OBJ has a great opportunity to get loose downfield against this vulnerable secondary. Beckham played over 98 percent of the snaps in Week 12, so it's clear that coach Sean McVay is ready to let him flourish in Los Angeles. Consider him an upside WR3 in this spot. The only reason why he's in the lukewarm section is due to the risk of a blowout here. He's also questionable for this game.
Van Jefferson (WR, LAR)
Van Jefferson also had a good game against the Packers, catching 3-of-9 targets for 93 yards and a touchdown, including a 79-yard score. Jefferson played over 98 percent of the snaps, leading the team with 164 air yards. It's clear that the Rams are going to really emphasize their 3-WR sets going forward. Jefferson now has a 13.7 average depth of target on the season, which means that he's often targeted downfield, giving him high upside, especially in this cupcake matchup.
Injuries:
LAR RB Darrell Henderson Jr. (thigh)
LAR WR Odell Beckham Jr. (hip)
Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Raiders -2.5
Implied Total: Football Team (23.5) vs. Raiders (26.0)
Pace: Football Team (18th) vs. Raiders (20th)
Scheme: Football Team (55% Pass, 45% Rush) vs. Raiders (61% Pass, 39% Rush)
Football Team Off. DVOA: 20.2% Pass (13th), -14.5% Rush (25th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 13.8% Pass (25th), -10.8% Rush (17th)
Football Team Def. DVOA: 27.6% Pass (30th), -15.6% Rush (7th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 19.6% Pass (15th), -13.7% Rush (23rd)
Matchups We Love:
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
Antonio Gibson has become the bell cow in this offense, as the team has transitioned into a more run-heavy approach. Gibson has combined for 72 carries, 270 rushing yards, and two touchdowns in his last three games. He's coming off an impressive 36-touch performance against the Seahawks, where he caught all seven of his targets for 35 yards. The Raiders have recently been gashed on the ground, giving up big games to Tony Pollard (88 total yards on 14 touches), Joe Mixon (123 rushing yards and two touchdowns), Devontae Booker (99 rushing yards), and Darrel Williams (nine receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown). Gibson is a RB1 in this terrific spot. If J.D. McKissic (concussion) is out for this game, so it's wheels up for Gibson.
UPDATE: J.D. McKissic has been ruled out for Week 13.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)
Logan Thomas returned to the lineup last week, catching 3-of-6 targets for 31 yards. He played on 78.57% of the snaps in his return, which is a great sign for his outlook going forward. Thomas is the clear-cut number-two option in an offense that loves to target the tight end – just look at how Ricky Seals-Jones was viable while Thomas was out of the lineup. He goes up against a Raiders defense that is allowing the third-most PPR per game to tight ends, so this is a great spot. Fire up Thomas with confidence.
Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)
Hunter Renfrow continues to be one of the most underrated wideouts in the NFL. He's coming off a smash game against the Cowboys, where he caught 8-of-9 targets for 134 yards. This coincided with tight end Darren Waller leaving early with injury. Waller's status is in doubt this week, as he's dealing with back and knee issues, which puts Renfrow in line for more strong usage. Washington is allowing the fourth-most PPR per game to wideouts, so Renfrow is a solid WR2 in this spot. Expect Carr to find his most trusted target early and often.
UPDATE: Darren Waller has been ruled out for Week 13.
Matchups We Hate:
Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS)
Taylor Heinicke is no longer on the streaming radar with Washington evolving into a run-heavy offense. Heinicke has combined for only 85 attempts in his last three games (28.3 per game). That's not enough volume to make enough of an impact as a streamer. He goes up against a Raiders defense that ranks 5th in PPR per game allowed to quarterbacks, so it's not an easy matchup here. Look elsewhere if you need a streamer this week, as Washington will likely lean on Gibson.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Josh Jacobs has seen nice usage lately, coming off a big game against the Cowboys where he rushed 22 times for 87 yards and a touchdown while catching 2-of-4 targets for 25 yards. The problem here is that he's taking on a Washington defense that has really become great against the run, ranking 13th in Rush EPA and allowing only 3.64 yards per carry (2nd). The Washington offense has also done a good job sustaining long drives, which could limit Jacobs' volume in this spot. I don't like this matchup for him.
Other Matchups:
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
Terry McLaurin is coming off a down week against the Seahawks, catching 4-of-7 targets for 51 yards. He's now failed to post double-digit targets in four consecutive games. The transition to a run-heavy offense is bad news for McLaurin's weekly upside, especially against a Raiders defense that has been tough on opposing wideouts, limiting them to the fifth-fewest PPR per game. McLaurin has the talent to overcome any tough matchup, but I'd consider this as more of a floor week for him.
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Derek Carr stays in the lukewarm section for two reasons. For one, Washington's defense has been much improved lately, keeping Tom Brady in check while shutting down Russell Wilson. Secondly, it's tough to get too excited about Carr with Darren Waller likely out for this game. That leaves him with a receiving core of Hunter Renfrow, DeSean Jackson, and Bryan Edwards. Having said that, Carr is still a viable streamer against a Washington defense allowing the most PPR per game to quarterbacks.
Foster Moreau (TE, LV)
Darren Waller's status is very much in doubt with knee and back issues. If he can't go, Foster Moreau would slot right in as the top tight end. We've seen Moreau produce with Waller in the lineup, as he caught all six of his targets for 60 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles. Washington is tied for 19th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, so this is an exploitable matchup. If Waller plays, I'd downgrade him to more of a mid-tier tight end option due to the injury concern. If Moreau gets a chance to start, he's firmly on the streaming radar.
Injuries:
WAS RB J.D. McKissic (concussion)
LV TE Darren Waller (knee/back)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: 49ers -3.5
Implied Total: 49ers (24.5) vs. Seahawks (21.0)
Pace: 49ers (27th) vs. Seahawks (14th)
Scheme: 49ers (49% Pass, 51% Rush) vs. Seahawks (55% Pass, 45% Rush)
49ers Off. DVOA: 33.5% Pass (4th), 2.1% Rush (7th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 17.1% Pass (27th), -12.9% Rush (11th)
49ers Def. DVOA: 13.2% Pass (22nd), -21.7% Rush (2nd)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 20.0% Pass (14th), -8.3% Rush (18th)
Matchups We Love:
Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF)
Elijah Mitchell is getting a ton of usage lately, combining for 54 attempts, 224 rushing yards, and a touchdown with five receptions for 35 yards in his last two games. Deebo Samuel is out for this game, which could open up more usage for Mitchell because Deebo was really starting to make an impact on the ground. The 49ers have been among the most run-heavy teams in the league, so we need to consider Mitchell as an RB1 in a terrific spot against a Seahawks defense allowing the second-most PPR per game to running backs.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Brandon Aiyuk has come alive in recent weeks, combining for 19 receptions, 291 yards, and two touchdowns in his last four games. It feels like ages ago when he was in the doghouse, losing snaps to Mohamed Sanu and Trent Sherfield. Aiyuk goes up against a Seahawks defense allowing the eighth-fewest PPR per game to wideouts, but they also rank 26th in Dropback EPA, so this isn't a matchup to avoid. You have to think that Aiyuk sees a bit more targets with Deebo Samuel out for this game. He's a rock-solid WR2 in this spot.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
George Kittle has been held back by this run-heavy offense, as he's often asked to help with run-blocking. Kittle has combined for only 10 receptions, 97 yards, and two touchdowns in his last three games. However, this is a great matchup against a Seahawks defense that is tied for 23rd in PPR per game allowed to tight ends. We could also see more targets funneled towards Kittle in Deebo Samuel's absence. You have to love the condensed target share here, especially in an exploitable matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)
Jimmy Garoppolo continues to play efficient football. In his last five games, he's completed 91-of-135 (67.4%) of his passes for 1,236 yards (9.16 Y/A) with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. The problem is that the volume just isn't there, as Garoppolo has only averaged 27 attempts per game during that span. You also have to think that the efficiency dips a bit with Deebo Samuel's absence. For that reason, I can't recommend Garoppolo as a streamer against a Seahawks defense that is tied for 10th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks.
Seahawks RBs
The Seahawks just signed Adrian Peterson, which makes this backfield even less enticing. Alex Collins has been highly inefficient in recent weeks, combining for 170 rushing yards on 53 carries (3.2 YPC) in his last five games. DeeJay Dallas looks like the most appealing option in this backfield because he gets the passing game usage. However, I'm steering clear of this situation against a 49ers defense that ranks 4th in Rush EPA. If the Seahawks are able to find success on offense here, it'll likely be through the air.
Other Matchups:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Russell Wilson continues to struggle, as he's finished QB26, QB25, and QB9 since returning from injury. He has a tough matchup here against a 49ers defense that ranks 9th in Dropback EPA, tied for 10th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Seahawks just got dominated in time of possession against Washington and now they face another efficient run-heavy offense in San Francisco. There's a legitimate chance that we see a similar situation this time around. Having said that, I'm keeping Russ in the lukewarm section because I'm still a big believer in his talent.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
D.K. Metcalf has hit a major slump right now, putting up only eight receptions for 70 yards in his last three games. He's been limited by the slow pace and overall ineffectiveness of the offense. He goes up against a 49ers defense that ranks 13th in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers, so this is another tough matchup. Despite the recent poor production, I have to leave Metcalf in the lukewarm section simply due to his immense talent. A player of this caliber can break out at any moment. We could see the Seahawks make an effort to get him more involved in the offense here.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Tyler Lockett has been the best wideout on the team in the last four games, combining for 21 catches and 375 yards. Having said that, I prefer Metcalf in this spot because I really believe that the Seahawks will force-feed him the ball after a few slow weeks. You can still fire up Lockett as a decent option on the WR2/3 fringe, but he carries risk because of how the 49ers' offense has been able to sustain long drives, limiting their opponent's volume. You're still starting Lockett but temper your expectations here.
Injuries:
SF WR Deebo Samuel (groin)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Ravens -4.5
Implied Total: Ravens (24.25) vs. Steelers (19.75)
Pace: Ravens (30th) vs. Steelers (9th)
Scheme: Ravens (49% Pass, 51% Rush) vs. Steelers (60% Pass, 40% Rush)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 6.9% Pass (20th), 1.6% Rush (8th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: 17.0% Pass (26th), -5.0% Rush (24th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: 13.7% Pass (24th), -18.6% Rush (5th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 5.4% Pass (22nd), -16.0% Rush (26th)
Matchups We Love:
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Marquise Brown returned to the lineup last week and picked up right where he left off, catching 8-of-10 targets for 51 yards. While the yardage wasn't there, it was nice to see him jump right back into heavy usage. He's the clear-cut alpha wideout on this team. Brown goes up against a Steelers defense that just allowed Tee Higgins to go off for six receptions, 114 yards, and a touchdown. Pittsburgh is tied for 25th in PPR per game allowed to opposing wideouts. We can consider Brown as an upside WR2 in this spot.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Diontae Johnson has one of the highest floors in fantasy football, finishing in the Top-24 in nine of 10 games this season, including four Top-12 finishes, three of which came in his last three games. Johnson goes up against a Ravens defense that ranks 15th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts. Baltimore is also allowing 8.7 yards per target, which is 10th-worst in the league. This puts Johnson in a good position for another strong week, even in a game that could be low-scoring. Expect Johnson to be peppered with targets as a borderline WR1.
Matchups We Hate:
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)
There's no reason to consider Big Ben as a streamer, as he only one Top-12 finish on the season. Roethlisberger goes up against a Ravens defense that ranks 20th in Dropback EPA, so it's an exploitable matchup, but we can't trust Big Ben right now. Roethlisberger has finished outside the Top-20 in seven of 11 games this season. He ranks 23rd in EPA per play and 27th in CPOE. Roethlisberger also continues to be a check-down machine, ranking 29th with 7.0 air yards per attempt. He's an easy fade.
Other Matchups:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Lamar Jackson laid an egg in his return to the lineup last week, finishing as QB26. This is a good matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks 18th in Dropback EPA and 15th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Pittsburgh also comes in at 21st in rushing yards given up to quarterbacks. The problem here is that we could see this turn into a scrappy game between two division rivals, as it has a low game total of only 44 points. We could also see Baltimore have success with their running backs. Obviously, Lamar is still an elite option, it's just that this is more of a lukewarm spot for him.
Devonta Freeman (RB, BAL)
Devonta Freeman remains the lead back here, totaling 32 carries and seven targets in his last two games, while Latavius Murray has only put up 18 carries and zero targets during that span. Freeman gets a great matchup against a Steelers defense that was just gashed by Joe Mixon for 165 yards and two touchdowns. In the week before that, Austin Ekeler went off for four touchdowns. Freeman looks like a sneaky RB2 with upside in this good matchup. We could see the Ravens lean on the run in this spot. Having said that, I still have to leave him in the lukewarm section due to the risk that Murray or Lamar takes away a touchdown. The Ravens also project to play with the lead, which would limit Freeman's usage in the passing game.
Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL)
The fantasy football community continues to wait on Rashod Bateman's big spike week, but it hasn't happened yet. You have to be impressed with the way the rookie has commanded targets, putting up a 17.43% target share on the season. Bateman has a chance to hit his ceiling in this exploitable matchup, but we have to consider him more of a volatile WR3 because of the Ravens' run-heavy offense. It's likely that we'll have to wait until next year before Bateman starts to really hit his stride.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Mark Andrews continues to produce as one of the few elite tight ends in fantasy football. He goes up against a Steelers defense that is tied for 9th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, so this isn't the easiest matchup. I'm also projecting Baltimore to grind out a low-scoring win in this game, which caps Andrews' upside in this spot. While you still need to consider him an elite TE1, it's a similar situation to Lamar here, where I think Andrews has more of a floor week against the Steelers.
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Najee Harris has hit a bit of a rookie wall lately, totaling only 62 yards on the ground in his last two games. Harris has put up 11 targets during that span, which is good, but you have to be a bit concerned with the inefficiency. Baltimore ranks 10th in Rush EPA, allowing the fifth-fewest PPR per game to running backs, so this is a tough matchup. Harris will have to do most of his damage through the air in this matchup. The problem is that the Ravens have also been stout against pass-catching backs, allowing only 48 receptions (T-7th in NFL). Consider Harris as a low-end RB1 in this spot.
Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)
No one needs a change at quarterback more than Chase Claypool, as Ben Roethlisberger has struggled to find his second-year wideout downfield, even underthrowing him on a couple of occasions. Claypool has failed to crack the Top-24 in five consecutive games, but we all know about his high ceiling given his big-play ability and touchdown equity. Claypool remains a volatile WR3, but it would not shock me to see him have a big game in this spot. I'll leave him in the lukewarm section. He's a better play in DFS than season-long leagues because he'll be a contrarian pick with big-play ability.
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)
Pat Freiermuth has failed to crack 50 yards in five consecutive games, but he's scored five touchdowns during that stretch, keeping him play as a Top-12 option at tight end. It's clear that Roethlisberger loves to look for his rookie tight end in the red-zone, so there's always a chance that Freiermuth hits pay dirt. The Ravens are a great matchup, as they are allowing the third-most PPR per game to tight ends. Having said that, I have to keep Freiermuth in the lukewarm section because of his mediocre yardage output. He's essentially touchdown-dependent.
Injuries:
There aren't any injuries to fantasy-relevant players in this game
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -10
Implied Total: Broncos (18.5) vs. Chiefs (28.5)
Pace: Broncos (31st) vs. Chiefs (5th)
Scheme: Broncos (57% Pass, 43% Rush) vs. Chiefs (60% Pass, 40% Rush)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 20.9% Pass (12th), -6.0% Rush (13th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: 11.6% Pass (21st), -3.4% Rush (28th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 9.4% Pass (18th), -4.6% Rush (26th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 25.5% Pass (9th), 2.2% Rush (6th)
Matchups We Love:
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)
Javonte Williams continues to flash his tremendous upside, rushing 14 times for 54 yards and a touchdown while catching 3-of-4 targets for 57 yards last week. He goes up against a Chiefs defense that ranks 27th in Rush EPA, so this could be a spot for this dynamic rookie to hit his ceiling. Melvin Gordon is out for this game, so Williams is now an RB1. While there's a chance that Mike Boone would get some work, you would have to think that Williams would be the bell cow here. You have to love this spot for Javonte, even as 10-point road underdogs, since he's used in the passing game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
This game profiles as a CEH spike week with the Chiefs playing as 10-point home favorites. CEH returned to the lineup to 12 carries, 63 yards, and a touchdown on the ground while catching both targets for 13 yards. It's likely that he'll come out of the bye week refreshed, so we could see a larger workload for the second-year running back here. He's not on the injury report this week, so this is a good sign. The Broncos rank 21st in Rush EPA, making this a solid matchup for CEH. While Darrel Williams can take away some of the workload, I think that CEH will have most of the rushing volume, making him a high-end RB2 with upside in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, DEN)
Teddy Bridgewater has finished as QB22, QB8, QB21, and QB14 in his last four games. He goes up against a Chiefs defense that has improved dramatically since trading for pass-rusher Melvin Ingram. During this stretch, Kansas City is allowing 10.0 points per game and 5.96 yards per attempt through the air. This is a tough game environment for Bridgewater on the road at Arrowhead against a swarming defense. I wouldn't consider him as a viable streamer in this spot.
Broncos WRs
The Broncos wideouts have become one of the worst situations in fantasy football, as Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick have cut into each other's value. The Broncos are among the slowest-paced teams in the NFL, making it difficult for more than one of these wideouts to get enough volume to provide viable fantasy production. The Chiefs rank 16th in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers, but this defense has really improved. I'd prefer to look elsewhere at wide receiver right now. Save these plays for the DFS Single-Game slate.
Other Matchups:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Patrick Mahomes has not been that elite fantasy quarterback that we've come to expect, as he's finished outside of the Top-20 in three of his last five games. While you have to love the high implied team total for the Chiefs, this isn't that easy of a matchup, as the Broncos are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Denver also ranks 9th in Dropback EPA. While you're still firing up Mahomes as a QB1, you need to temper your expectations in this spot. I think Kansas City will lean on their defense and running game.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Tyreek Hill is a matchup-proof WR1 each and every week, as he's put up 84 receptions, 932 yards, and eight touchdowns already, but this looks like more of a lukewarm spot. The Broncos are allowing the sixth-fewest PPR per game to opposing wideouts. We've also seen a lot less splash plays from Hill this season, so he'll have to hit his ceiling with volume in this spot. The problem is I think that the Chiefs will have more success running the ball, since that's where you need to attack this Broncos' defense. We could see more of a floor game for Hill here.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Travis Kelce has gotten back to dominating the tight end position, finishing as TE3, TE1, and TE2 in his last three games. While this is a tough matchup against a Broncos defense that ranks 5th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, Kelce is a matchup-proof player. The one risk here is that we see more of a run-heavy game script than usual for Kansas City, but you still need to consider Kelce as the overall TE1. I'll keep him in the lukewarm section because of this Broncos defense, but he should be able to provide strong production.
Injuries:
DEN RB Melvin Gordon (shoulder/hip)
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