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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 16 matchup analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. We hope everyone is having a successful fantasy season so far! It's playoff time, so let's go win a championship! Let's take a look at this week's matchups.
For those who are not familiar, each week I'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Special thanks to PFF, RotoViz, RotoWire, Football Outsiders, FantasyPros, rbsdm.com, and Add More Funds for providing valuable information.
This year I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games, and we will have separate articles for the Thursday Night Football matchups and Monday Night Football matchups. Be sure to read those as well. So join me as I help get your fantasy teams off to a strong start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - Saturday Games
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -7.5
Implied Total: Browns (19.0) vs. Packers (26.5)
Pace: Browns (23rd) vs. Packers (32nd)
Scheme: Browns (51% Pass, 49% Rush) vs. Packers (57% Pass, 43% Rush)
Browns Off. DVOA: 14.5% Pass (16th), 7.0% Rush (5th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 6.7% Pass (19th), -3.6% Rush (25th)
Browns Def. DVOA: 9.4% Pass (23rd), -10.3% Rush (16th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 41.5% Pass (1st), -1.4% Rush (9th)
Matchups We Love:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Aaron Rodgers has finished as QB2, QB2, QB3, and QB3 in his last four games. He has thrown for 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions during that span. The Browns rank 21st in Dropback EPA, so this is an exploitable matchup. We have to consider Rodgers as an elite QB1 with the way that he's playing right now. While he's still nursing a toe injury, it doesn't seem to be limiting his effectiveness.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Davante Adams had a down week against the Ravens, but he still was able to put up six catches for 44 yards and a touchdown. Adams has the highest touchdown equity among wideouts, as Rodgers loves feeding him in the red zone, so there's always a chance for multiple scores. Adams is a matchup-proof, elite WR1 every single week.
Matchups We Hate:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Baker Mayfield is returning for this game, but it's a matchup to avoid. Green Bay ranks 13th in Dropback EPA and the Browns will continue to play a run-heavy style. There's no way that you can trust Mayfield as a streamer in the semifinals of the fantasy playoffs. Look elsewhere if you're desperate.
Other Matchups:
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)
Nick Chubb is currently ranked as RB13 in PPR per game. He takes on a Packers defense that ranks 27th in Rush EPA, making this an exploitable matchup. Kareem Hunt is out for another game, which means that Chubb is in line for another hefty workload. The only reason why he's in the lukewarm section is due to a projected negative game script.
Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Jarvis Landry is expected to return from the COVID-19 Reserve list. He'll take on a Packers defense allowing only 7.21 yards per target to wideouts (T-3rd in the NFL). However, the Browns will have to air it out more than usual to play catch-up here. That gives Landry a bit of a floor, particularly in full-PPR leagues. Landry had combined for 28 targets in his previous three games. We can project a solid workload here.
UPDATE: Jarvis Landry was officially activated from the COVID-19 list.
Packers RBs
Aaron Jones (15 touches in Week 15) and A.J. Dillon (8 touches in Week 15) continue to eat into each other's value. The good news here is that it's a projected positive game script with the Packers as heavy home favorites. Cleveland ranks 21st in Rush EPA. Consider Jones as an upside RB2 with Dillon as more of a FLEX.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB)
MVS got the job done against an exploitable Ravens secondary last week, catching 5-of-7 targets for 98 yards and a touchdown. He's now racked up 31 targets in his last four games, which is an intriguing workload for a deep threat. This keeps him on the WR3 radar every week. He'll stay in the lukewarm section due to his volatility. Keep an eye on his status because he's currently on the COVID-19 Reserve list, but there's a chance that he can play.
Injuries:
CLE RB Kareem Hunt (ankle)
GB QB Aaron Rodgers (toe)
GB WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (COVID-19)
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals -1
Implied Total: Colts (23.75) vs. Cardinals (24.75)
Pace: Colts (29th) vs. Cardinals (15th)
Scheme: Colts (54% Pass, 46% Rush) vs. Cardinals (56% Pass, 44% Rush)
Colts Off. DVOA: 11.2% Pass (20th), 13.5% Rush (1st)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: -8.0% Pass (4th), -14.0% Rush (8th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 5.3% Pass (16th), -21.8% Rush (3rd)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: 26.6% Pass (8th), -14.6% Rush (24th)
Matchups We Love:
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Jonathan Taylor is having a historic season, putting up 1,854 total yards and 19 touchdowns. He's now finished in the Top-5 running backs in eight of his last 10 games, including five Top-2 finishes. Arizona ranks 3rd in Rush EPA, but they just got gashed on the ground by Craig Reynolds. Taylor is the overall RB1.
Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)
Zach Ertz looks poised to make an impact with Hopkins out of the lineup. He caught 6-of-11 targets for 74 yards against the Lions last week. Now, he goes up against a Colts defense that just allowed Hunter Henry to go off for six catches, 77 yards, and two touchdowns. This looks like an Ertz week. Fire him up with confidence.
Matchups We Hate:
Carson Wentz (QB, IND)
Carson Wentz has too low of a floor to consider using as a streamer. This is because the Colts are such a run-heavy offense. Wentz only attempted 12 passes against the Patriots last week, following 22 attempts in the previous game. Add in the fact that Arizona ranks 4th in Dropback EPA and you have an easy avoid.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Michael Pittman Jr. has really fallen off down the stretch, combining for 18 receptions, 231 yards, and zero touchdowns in his last five games. The Colts' run-heavy philosophy has really made Pittman a volatile fantasy asset. The Cardinals just gave up big production to Amon-Ra St. Brown, but I'm avoiding Pittman here.
Other Matchups:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Kyler Murray put up a total dud in a smash spot against a Lions defense that ranks 30th in Dropback EPA. Perhaps the loss of DeAndre Hopkins will have a bigger impact than anticipated. He takes on a Colts defense that shut down Josh Allen earlier in the season. That keeps Murray as more of a lukewarm QB1.
James Conner (RB, ARI)
James Conner (10 touches) lost some of his workload to Chase Edmonds (six touches) in the latter's return to action last week. Conner goes up against a Colts defense that ranks 2nd in Rush EPA, making this a tough matchup. Conner is currently dealing with a heel injury and is considered a game-time decision. If he does play, it's likely that he'll see a reduced role, making him a risky RB2. If Conner is out, Edmonds joins the RB2 radar.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Christian Kirk is likely to be the top target in this passing game with Hopkins sidelined. Kirk put up solid production against the Lions last week, catching 9-of-12 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown. While A.J. Green will eat into this volume, I prefer Kirk as a weekly upside WR3. The Colts are tied for 18th in fantasy production to wideouts.
Injuries:
ARI RB James Conner (heel)
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets
Spread: Jets PK
Implied Total: Jaguars (20.5) vs. Jets (21.0)
Pace: Jaguars (4th) vs. Jets (12th)
Scheme: Jaguars (56% Pass, 44% Rush) vs. Jets (57% Pass, 43% Rush)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: -12.3% Pass (30th), -7.1% Rush (18th)
Jets Def. DVOA: 30.2% Pass (32nd), 2.5% Rush (32nd)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 29.8% Pass (31st), -10.8% Rush (14th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -6.3% Pass (27th), -4.4% Rush (15th)
Matchups We Love:
James Robinson (RB, JAX)
James Robinson rushed 18 times for 75 yards and a touchdown against the Texans in his first game without Urban Meyer. Carlos Hyde was inactive, so Robinson played over 84% of the snaps. He has now been placed on IR. It's wheels up against a Jets defense allowing the most fantasy production to the position this year and just got gashed by Duke Johnson. However, Robinson is currently dealing with a knee injury, so keep a close eye on his status. If he plays, I expect a full workload.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any fantasy-relevant players with bad matchups in this spot. Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence are not reliable options, so they are not included.
Other Matchups:
Jaguars WRs
The Jaguars' wideouts are also in a good spot against a Jets defense allowing 9.0 yards per target (31st in NFL). Marvin Jones and Laquon Treadwell each played on over 90% of the snaps last week, with Treadwell out-targeting Jones 9-to-4. Treadwell is the preferred choice here, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Jones break out.
Michael Carter (RB, NYJ)
Michael Carter shared the backfield with Tevin Coleman last week, but that was partly due to it being his first game back. While we can expect Coleman to steal some early-down work and goal-line carries, Carter is still on the RB2 radar due to his receiving upside. The Jags are allowing 3.76 YPC (3rd), so consider Carter a lukewarm option.
Jets WRs
Jamison Crowder is the only reliable option in this Jets passing game. The veteran wideout has 20 targets in his last three games, which gives him a floor in full-PPR formats. Crowder is in a good spot against a Jaguars defense allowing 8.96 yards per target (30th). Brandin Cooks just destroyed this secondary. However, Crowder is dealing with a calf injury that could keep him out of this game. If he can't play, Braxton Berrios could emerge as a sneaky play in full-PPR formats.
UPDATE: Jamison Crowder is officially listed as doubtful for Week 16.
Injuries:
JAX RB James Robinson (knee)
JAX WR Laviska Shenault (COVID-19)
NYJ WR Jamison Crowder (calf)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles -9.5
Implied Total: Giants (15.5) vs. Eagles (25.0)
Pace: Giants (13th) vs. Eagles (7th)
Scheme: Giants (60% Pass, 40% Rush) vs. Eagles (50% Pass, 50% Rush)
Giants Off. DVOA: -6.6% Pass (28th), -19.1% Rush (29th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 13.9% Pass (24th), -10.4% Rush (15th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 4.4% Pass (13th), -0.9% Rush (28th)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 17.4% Pass (14th), 10.0% Rush (3rd)
Matchups We Love:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Jalen Hurts returned to action and didn't miss a beat last week, throwing for 296 yards while rushing for two touchdowns. He should be able to take care of business in another good matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 19th in Dropback EPA. This game projects as a blowout for the Eagles given New York's deficiencies on offense.
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
Miles Sanders has been fantastic lately, combining for 251 rushing yards in his last two games. The Eagles are finally letting their best runner take over this backfield. This game projects as a positive game script with the Eagles as heavy home favorites. Look for another strong performance for Sanders, who is a borderline RB1 in this spot. However, Sanders is currently dealing with a quad injury that could keep him out of this game. If Sanders can't go, Jordan Howard immediately becomes an upside RB2.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Dallas Goedert is turning into Mark Andrews before our very eyes. The talented tight end has combined for 13 receptions, 240 yards, and two touchdowns in his last two games. That's quite the bounce back after a catch-less game against these Giants prior to that. Look for Goedert to continue to put up high-end TE1 numbers here.
Matchups We Hate:
Giants WRs
Kenny Golladay has a matchup to avoid against top cornerback Darius Slay. It looks likely that Jake Fromm will make the start, which is probably good news considering how poorly Mike Glennon has played. Kadarius Toney is also expected to return to the lineup, but there's really nothing to like here. You can't trust these pass-catchers in the fantasy semifinals.
DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)
DeVonta Smith has only seven catches for 77 yards in his last three games. This one projects as another run-heavy game script with the Eagles likely controlling the game. It's unlikely that Jalen Hurts will have to air it out too much here, which limits Smith's upside. The Giants are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wideouts.
Other Matchups:
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
Saquon Barkley has 20 targets in his last three games, which is great, but he's nothing more than a solid RB2 right now. The Giants' offense is a mess, so there are limited opportunities for touchdowns. Barkley is also ceding some touches to Devontae Booker. Barkley will need to make an impact through the air it hit his ceiling here.
Injuries:
PHI RB Miles Sanders (quad)
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Rams -3
Implied Total: Rams (26.0) vs. Vikings (23.0)
Pace: Rams (11th) vs. Vikings (9th)
Scheme: Rams (63% Pass, 37% Rush) vs. Vikings (58% Pass, 42% Rush)
Rams Off. DVOA: 31.2% Pass (5th), -2.7% Rush (10th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: 6.2% Pass (18th), -5.7% Rush (21st)
Rams Def. DVOA: -0.3% Pass (7th), -20.3% Rush (4th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 27.9% Pass (7th), -15.1% Rush (25th)
Matchups We Love:
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Matthew Stafford has finished as QB5, QB3, QB6, and QB11 in his last four games. He takes on a Vikings defense that ranks 12th in Dropback EPA, but 29th in fantasy production to quarterbacks. Minnesota has the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Rams in a shootout, which bodes well for Stafford. He's an elite QB1 here.
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Cooper Kupp is simply ridiculous this season. He has combined for 30 catches, 388 yards, and four touchdowns in his last three games. Kupp is getting close to Calvin Johnson's single-season yardage record. You can bet that the Rams will force-feed the ball to him. He goes up against a Vikings defense that ranks 32nd against wide receivers.
Sony Michel (RB, LAR)
Sony Michel has become the lead back in this Rams offense, even with Darrell Henderson Jr. back in the fold. Michel out-snapped and out-touched Henderson in his first game back on Tuesday. We can expect more of the same moving forward. The Vikings rank 25th in Rush EPA, so this is a good matchup.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Justin Jefferson will have his hands full with Jalen Ramsey and a Rams defense that ranks 15th against wide receivers, but this is a truly elite wideout. The Vikings will likely have to air it out more because Los Angeles is so tough against the run. We could see fireworks in this game, making Jefferson an elite WR1.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Rams WRs
Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson offer some WR3/FLEX appeal for their big-play ability against a susceptible secondary. It's likely that one of these players will put up WR2 production in this positive game environment, but it's tough to tell which one. My bet is on OBJ, but the matchup is right for both wideouts.
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Kirk Cousins takes on a Rams defense that ranks 11th in Dropback EPA, but it's likely that he'll have to air it out at a higher rate to keep pace with this prolific offense. Cousins has shown a nice ceiling this year with four Top-5 finishes and we could see similar production in this projected shootout. You can fire him up as a QB1 in this spot.
Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN)
Dalvin Cook is out with COVID-19 this week, so it's Alexander Mattison's time to shine. Mattison has finished as RB5, RB6, and RB7 in three of his starts this season. He basically slides right into the Dalvin Cook. The problem here is that the Rams rank 5th in Rush EPA, allowing only 3.7 yards per carry, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. Mattison will need to find the endzone or make an impact in the passing game to approach his ceiling in this spot.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)
Adam Thielen looks ready to return to the lineup this week, making him in upside WR2 due to his high touchdown equity in a projected shootout. I'll leave him in the lukewarm section because it's his first game back from injury. If he somehow can't go, you can go back to the well with K.J. Osborn due to the projected uptick in passing volume for Minnesota in this spot.
Injuries:
MIN RB Dalvin Cook (COVID-19)
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Falcons -6
Implied Total: Lions (18.25) vs. Falcons (24.25)
Pace: Lions (25th) vs. Falcons (19th)
Scheme: Lions (51% Pass, 49% Rush) vs. Falcons (58% Pass, 42% Rush)
Lions Off. DVOA: -9.4% Pass (29th), -15.4% Rush (26th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 26.6% Pass (30th), -2.2% Rush (26th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 18.7% Pass (26th), -0.3% Rush (29th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: -2.3% Pass (25th), -32.5% Rush (31st)
Matchups We Love:
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, ATL)
Cordarrelle Patterson has inexplicably lost his heavy passing game usage, putting up only 65 yards in his last five games. However, the spot is too good not to love him here, as he goes up against a Lions defense that ranks 20th in Rush EPA, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Consider Patterson as an RB1 in this spot.
Russell Gage (WR, ATL)
Russell Gage has morphed into Calvin Ridley down the stretch, catching 29-of-36 targets for 347 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games. Gage has become the clear-cut top option in this passing game. He's in a smash spot against a Lions defense allowing 8.66 yards per target to wide receivers (28th in NFL).
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any fantasy-relevant players to hate in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
Amon-Ra St. Brown has really hit his stride in recent weeks, combining for 26 catches, 249 yards, and two touchdowns in his last three games. The rookie has totaled double-digit targets in each of those games. He's become the safety valve for Jared Goff. Atlanta ranks 29th in fantasy production allowed to wide receivers. The problem is that there's a good chance that Tim Boyle will start this game since Goff is on the COVID-19 list. That keeps St. Brown in the lukewarm section.
Lions RBs
D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams returned to practice on Wednesday, which bodes well for their chances at returning to the lineup this week. Swift would be an upside RB2 instead of a sure-fire RB1 because it's unclear if his role will be limited. The Falcons rank 25th in running back targets allowed, which is good news for Swift. If Swift can't go, we can expect a split with Williams and Craig Reynolds. I'd avoid this backfield in that situation.
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Matt Ryan has finished outside of the Top-20 quarterbacks in four of his last six games, but this is a great spot against a Lions defense that ranks 30th in Dropback EPA. I'll have to keep Ryan in the lukewarm section given his mediocre production, but he has sneaky streamer appeal in this exploitable matchup.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Kyle Pitts has disappointed many fantasy players given his high draft cost, but the rookie still has 58 catches for 847 yards. It's the one touchdown that is holding back his overall production. This is a great chance for a ceiling game against one of the worst defenses in football, but I'll leave him in the lukewarm section due to his average production.
Injuries:
DET RB D'Andre Swift (shoulder)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots -2.5
Implied Total: Bills (20.5) vs. Patriots (23.0)
Pace: Bills (3rd) vs. Patriots (28th)
Scheme: Bills (67% Pass, 33% Rush) vs. Patriots (50% Pass, 50% Rush)
Bills Off. DVOA: 22.6% Pass (11th), -4.9% Rush (16th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: -18.2% Pass (3rd), -15.3% Rush (6th)
Bills Def. DVOA: -19.5% Pass (2nd), -13.3% Rush (9th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: 20.7% Pass (12th), -3.8% Rush (13th)
Matchups We Love:
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Stefon Diggs should see a heavy target share with Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis both out with COVID-19, although Emmanuel Sanders is ready to return. The risk here is that the Pats rank 2nd in fantasy production to wide receivers, but I expect Diggs to be absolutely peppered with targets given with Beasley and Davis out. He has a chance to hit his ceiling in this spot, as I expect the Bills to win this game.
Matchups We Hate:
Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
Devin Singletary led the way with 22 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown last week. However, that was in a blowout against the Panthers. This game projects to be closer, so it's tough to expect more than 15 touches here. Singletary will need to find the endzone to provide reasonable production this week. The Pats rank 16th in Rush EPA, but Buffalo is too pass-heavy and Singletary doesn't have enough of a receiving role. Pass.
Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
Hunter Henry erupted against the Colts, but the Bills rank 4th in tight end production. This is a game where I expect the Patriots' passing game to struggle. I also don't think New England will be able to score many points against this Bills defense. I'm confident that we see a much better performance out of the Bills this time around. For that reason, I'm out on Henry this week.
Other Matchups:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Josh Allen has a tough matchup against a Patriots defense that ranks 2nd in Dropback EPA, but he has the rushing upside and touchdown equity to overcome this challenge. I expect the Bills to avenge their previous loss to the Patriots in this one. Having said that, this projects as more of a floor week for Allen.
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)
Dawson Knox has some of the best touchdown equity among tight ends, putting up eight touchdowns in only 12 games. Knox has 14 red-zone targets, which is tied for 6th at the position. He could have a higher chance of finding the endzone with Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis out of the lineup. However, the Patriots rank 1st against tight ends.
Patriots RBs
Damien Harris should be able to return to the lineup this week. If he does, we can consider him a solid RB2. The Bills rank 4th in Rush EPA, but we saw how Harris gashed them in their previous matchup. If Harris can't go, Rhamondre Stevenson would be back on the RB2 radar. Just be careful because he could get game-scripted out if the Patriots fall behind. We saw that last week with Brandon Bolden taking away usage. Stevenson is currently dealing with an illness that could keep him out this week. If he misses the game, Harris would get a bump in value.
UPDATE: Rhamondre Stevenson has been placed on the COVID-19 list and is officially out for Week 16.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Jakobi Meyers is worth a look if you're in a pinch at wide receiver, as he's racked up 26 targets in his last three games. While the touchdown upside is really low, you have to like that consistent usage over a dart-throw like Kendrick Bourne. There's a good chance that Nelson Agholor misses this game, which means more opportunity for Meyers. The Bills rank 1st against wide receivers, but Meyers can rack up a few catches in the intermediate passing game.
Injuries:
BUF WR Gabriel Davis (COVID-19)
BUF WR Cole Beasley (COVID-19)
NE RB Rhamondre Stevenson (COVID-19)
NE WR Nelson Agholor (concussion)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Buccaneers -10.5
Implied Total: Buccaneers (27.25) vs. Panthers (16.75)
Pace: Buccaneers (6th) vs. Panthers (17th)
Scheme: Buccaneers (67% Pass, 33% Rush) vs. Panthers (51% Pass, 49% Rush)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 39.3% Pass (2nd), 10.7% Rush (2nd)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 0.8% Pass (8th), -4.7% Rush (24th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: -2.9% Pass (5th), -11.2% Rush (12th)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -20.7% Pass (32nd), -10.1% Rush (19th)
Matchups We Love:
Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)
Ronald Jones steps right into the lead role in a prolific offense with Leonard Fournette out for the season. While RoJo won't make an impact in the passing game, he's an explosive runner with high touchdown equity and a projected positive game script. Remember that he rushed for over 190 yards against these Panthers last year. Consider him an upside RB2, even against a Panthers defense that ranks 7th in Rush EPA.
Antonio Brown (WR, TB)
Antonio Brown returns from suspension at the perfect time with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out of the lineup. We can consider him an upside WR2 given his elite production earlier in the season and uptick in targets due to the team's injuries at wide receiver. The Panthers rank 6th against wide receivers, but I'm not too concerned about that with this Bucs prolific passing game.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
Rob Gronkowski also sees a bump in value with Godwin, Evans, and Fournette sidelined. We already saw the increased volume last week, as he put up 11 targets. While the production was not there, you had to love the volume. Gronk looks like an elite TE1 given his high touchdown equity against a Panthers defense that ranks 11th against tight ends.
Matchups We Hate:
Cam Newton (QB, CAR)
Cam Newton has flashed his fantasy upside with his rushing output and touchdown equity, but how can we trust him in the fantasy semifinals? Head coach Matt Rhule has spoken about getting Sam Darnold involved in the offense here. There's too much of a risk that Newton gets benched, so you can leave him on your bench this week.
Panthers RBs
Chuba Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah go up against a Bucs defense that ranks 12th against running backs, allowing 3.84 yards per carry (7th). Abdullah is the preferred choice since he's the pass-catching back and the Panthers project to be down multiple scores in this game, but I'd look elsewhere.
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
D.J. Moore was peppered with 11 targets last week, but he was only able to turn that into 48 yards. Moore had racked up double-digit targets in three consecutive games. The reason why I bring him up is that Robby Anderson would step into this role with Moore potentially out with a hamstring. Anderson has 20 targets in his last two games, but only 113 yards to show for it. It's hard to trust him given how dysfunctional this is, but the targets should be there. I'm more interested in him in DFS tournaments.
UPDATE: D.J. Moore is officially listed as questionable for Week 16.
Other Matchups:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Tom Brady should be able to bounce back from a poor performance against the Saints, but he'll be without Godwin, Evans, and Fournette. This game also projects as a Bucs blowout, which could lead to a decrease in passing volume. These two factors keep Brady in the lukewarm section, but he's still a QB1 every week.
Injuries:
TB WR Mike Evans (hamstring)
CAR WR D.J. Moore (hamstring)
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -3
Implied Total: Ravens (21.25) vs. Bengals (24.25)
Pace: Ravens (27th) vs. Bengals (30th)
Scheme: Ravens (52% Pass, 48% Rush) vs. Bengals (57% Pass, 43% Rush)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 12.5% Pass (17th), 2.3% Rush (6th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 6.0% Pass (17th), -13.2% Rush (10th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: 20.5% Pass (29th), -16.9% Rush (5th)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 5.1% Pass (23rd), -10.7% Rush (20th)
Matchups We Love:
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Mark Andrews is on a ridiculous run right now, catching 21-of-24 targets for 251 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. Andrews should be considered an elite TE1 whether it's Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley under center. The Bengals rank 25th against tight ends, so this profiles as another smash matchup.
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Joe Burrow finished as QB20 last week but had three consecutive Top-10 finishes prior to that game. Now he gets to take on a depleted Ravens secondary that will be without Marlon Humphrey. The last time these two teams played, Burrow threw for 416 yards and three touchdowns. He's in a great spot this week.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Tee Higgins had a down week against the Broncos, but he's in a great spot for a bounce-back against this Ravens defense. Baltimore just allowed Marquez Valdes-Scantling to go off for 98 yards and a touchdown. There's a good chance that Higgins can put up similar production here, making him a low-end WR1.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Ja'Marr Chase has hit the proverbial rookie wall, coming off his worst game of the season, where he was limited to only one catch for three yards. We could see him get the "squeaky-wheel treatment," which is where an elite player gets peppered with targets following a quiet game. That would mean mega upside in this terrific matchup. Keep an eye on Tyler Boyd as well, who has 14 catches for 236 yards and a touchdown in his last three games.
Matchups We Hate:
Devonta Freeman (RB, BAL)
Devonta Freeman is the lead back here, but he's coming off one of his worst games of the season, rushing six times for 22 yards with only one catch for two yards. Latavius Murray looked spry, rushing seven times for 48 yards. He also was targeted three times. There's risk that this is turning into more of a committee, which makes me want to avoid this backfield this week.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Joe Mixon was able to practice this week, which is great news considering it looked like he was in danger of missing this game. The problem is that we've seen him lose passing game work to Samaje Perine, which seems more likely than usual this week given the injury. Baltimore ranks 9th in Rush EPA, so this is a tough matchup.
Other Matchups:
Tyler Huntley (QB, BAL)
It looks like Lamar Jackson will be out for another game. Tyler Huntley has done a phenomenal job and would be an appealing streamer if Lamar can't go. The Bengals rank 8th in Dropback EPA, but this game has the makings of a shootout, which keeps both quarterbacks in the lukewarm section. I know Huntley erupted last week, but I'm not ready to put him in the 'Love' section just yet.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Marquise Brown racked up 10 catches last week, but he was only able to turn that volume into 43 yards. He's now failed to eclipse 60 yards in five consecutive games. This keeps him in the lukewarm section against a Bengals defense that is tied for 13th in fantasy production allowed to wide receivers. Rashod Bateman has fallen out of fantasy relevance in redraft leagues.
Injuries:
BAL QB Lamar Jackson (ankle)
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Spread: Chargers -9.5
Implied Total: Chargers (27.5) vs. Texans (18.0)
Pace: Chargers (2nd) vs. Texans (24th)
Scheme: Chargers (61% Pass, 39% Rush) vs. Texans (54% Pass, 46% Rush)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 35.5% Pass (3rd), -2.9% Rush (12th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 3.8% Pass (10th), -1.5% Rush (27th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 4.4% Pass (12th), 2.3% Rush (31st)
Texans Off. DVOA: -17.6% Pass (31st), -40.0% Rush (32nd)
Matchups We Love:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Justin Herbert is on a roll right now, finishing as QB1, QB8, QB4, QB5, and QB5 in his last five games. He takes on a Texans defense that ranks 24th in Dropback EPA. While Austin Ekeler is likely out for this game, Herbert has shown the ability to excel even without his best players on the field. We can consider the superstar second-year quarterback as an elite QB1 this week.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Keenan Allen returned to the lineup and picked up right where he left off as a target hog, catching 6-of-10 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. We can project Allen to get absolutely peppered in this game with Austin Ekeler potentially out of the lineup. Allen has now racked up double-digit targets in six of his last seven games. We can expect more of the same here. The Texans are tied for 17th in fantasy production allowed to wide receivers.
Matchups We Hate:
Texans RBs
Rex Burkhead and Royce Freeman have a great matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks 31st in Rush EPA. David Johnson also looks unlikely to play after missing practice all week with a quad injury, which provides more clarity for this backfield. However, the Texans are the worst running team in the league. There's no way I can advise you to trust these runners in the fantasy semifinals. Leave them for DFS tournaments or super-deep leagues where you're in a desperate situation.
Nico Collins (WR, HOU)
Nico Collins captivates the fantasy community because of his 6'4, 215-lb frame. Fantasy managers might be especially intrigued this week because Brandin Cooks has a good chance at missing this game with COVID-19, opening up opportunities for Collins. However, I don't suggest trusting Collins as the lone target. He hasn't shown an ability to earn targets this season and he's just a rookie. The Chargers rank 4th against wide receivers.
Other Matchups:
Justin Jackson (RB, LAC)
Justin Jackson is the runner that you want in this backfield in Austin Ekeler's absence. Jackson should take over as the main pass-catching back and split some carries with Joshua Kelley on early downs. This is a smash spot on paper against a Texans defense that ranks 32nd in Rush EPA. The only reason why Jackson is in the lukewarm section is that we always need to tread lightly with backups taking on larger roles. There's always the chance that Kelley vultures a touchdown or two, leaving us on tilt. Jackson is an RB2 this week.
UPDATE: On Saturday afternoon, Austin Ekeler announced that he is out for this week's game.
Injuries:
LAC RB Austin Ekeler (COVID-19)
HOU RB David Johnson (quad)
HOU WR Brandin Cooks (COVID-19)
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 ET Games
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -6.5
Implied Total: Bears (18.25) vs. Seahawks (24.75)
Pace: Bears (22nd) vs. Seahawks (14th)
Scheme: Bears (49% Pass, 51% Rush) vs. Seahawks (56% Pass, 44% Rush)
Bears Off. DVOA: -2.1% Pass (24th), -12.9% Rush (21st)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 20.4% Pass (28th), -14.4% Rush (7th)
Bears Def. DVOA: 8.0% Pass (22nd), -5.7% Rush (22nd)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 20.2% Pass (13th), -2.8% Rush (11th)
Matchups We Love:
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
David Montgomery has racked up 22 targets and 49 carries in his last three games. That's bellcow usage that keeps him as an RB1 against a Seahawks defense that ranks 13th in Rush EPA, but is allowing the second-most PPR per game to running backs. Justin Fields is limited by an ankle injury, which could lead to more checkdowns to Monty. We can also see more work if Andy Dalton is under center.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Tyler Lockett returns from the COVID-19 list just in time to take on a Bears defense allowing 9.09 yards per target, which ranks 32nd in the NFL. Lockett had combined for 19 receptions, 421 yards and two touchdowns in his previous four games. He's the top wideout on this team and should be considered an upside WR2 here.
Matchups We Hate:
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
Justin Fields has finished as QB9 in his last two games, but I'm worried about this ankle injury. If Fields is able to play, that could mean fewer runs due to the injury. Most of Fields' fantasy production comes from his rushing output, so I can't advise you to start him in the fantasy semifinals given this risk.
UPDATE: Justin Fields has officially been ruled out for Week 16. Nick Foles will start instead.
Other Matchups:
Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI)
Darnell Mooney continues to see some nice volume, totaling 43 targets in his last five games. Justin Fields likely won't be running as much due to the ankle injury, which could mean more pass attempts that could go Mooney's way. The Seahawks rank 12th against wideouts, but Mooney stays in the lukewarm section because he's the top target on this team.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Cole Kmet has seen 32 targets in his last four games, which is impressive volume for a tight end. He takes on a Seahawks defense that ranks 27th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends. Add in a potential uptick in passing volume if Andy Dalton plays and you have an appealing streamer. I'm only keeping Kmet in the lukewarm section because of how dysfunctional the Bears offense can be at times.
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Russell Wilson had an awful game against the Rams, finishing as QB32. However, he had finished at QB9, QB14, and QB14 in his previous three games, so he should be in the lukewarm section against a Bears defense that ranks 25th in Dropback EPA. Wilson should be able to provide Top-15 production in this spot.
Rashaad Penny (RB, SEA)
Rashaad Penny had a down week against the Rams, but that was a tough run defense in a negative game script. The Seahawks project to control this game as 6.5-point favorites, so this looks like a better spot for Penny. The Bears rank 26th in Rush EPA, making Penny a rock-solid RB2 here, especially with how the Seahawks like to run the ball.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
D.K. Metcalf has been one of the most disappointing wideouts in the NFL this season. He's failed to eclipse 60 yards in seven consecutive games. The Seahawks play slow at times, which limits their total plays and caps Metcalf's upside. Metcalf hasn't produced nearly as well as Tyler Lockett, so the third-year pro stays in the lukewarm section despite the plus matchup.
Injuries:
CHI QB Justin Fields (ankle)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -7.5
Implied Total: Steelers (18.5) vs. Chiefs (26.0)
Pace: Steelers (5th) vs. Chiefs (10th)
Scheme: Steelers (59% Pass, 41% Rush) vs. Chiefs (62% Pass, 38% Rush)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 8.1% Pass (21st), -15.4% Rush (27th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: 4.3% Pass (11th), -5.7% Rush (20th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: 3.2% Pass (9th), 1.0% Rush (30th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 28.3% Pass (6th), 0.4% Rush (7th)
Matchups We Love:
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Diontae Johnson had a down week against the Titans, all five of his targets for 38 yards. This was his second consecutive finish outside of the Top-35 wideouts. However, prior to this two-game slump, Johnson had finished in the Top-25 in 10 straight games. The Steelers will likely have to air it out to keep pace with this high-octane Chiefs' offense, so fire up Johnson as a WR1.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Tyreek Hill had a ceiling game against the Chargers, catching 12-of-13 targets for 148 yards and a touchdown. The Steelers are tied for 17th in fantasy production allowed to wideouts. The problem is that Hill is currently on the COVID-19 list, so he might not be able to play. If he does play, he's an elite WR1.
UPDATE: Tyreek Hill has cleared COVID protocols and will be active for this week.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Travis Kelce finally blew up against the Chargers, putting up 10 catches for 191 yards and two touchdowns. Like Hill, Kelce is currently on the COVID-19 list and might not be able to play this week. If he does play, there's no reason to be concerned about any limitations. He'd be the overall TE1 even against a Steelers defense that ranks 8th against tight ends.
Matchups We Hate:
Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)
Chase Claypool put up a dud against the Titans, putting up only 12 rushing yards. Claypool played on only 63% of the snaps, which was a lower rate than Ray-Ray McLoud. The Chiefs rank 10th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts. I can't advise you to trust Claypool in this spot, although he could have more red-zone looks with Pat Freiermuth potentially sidelined with a concussion.
UPDATE. Pat Freiermuth has officially been ruled out for Week 16.
Other Matchups:
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Najee Harris has only one Top-12 finish in his last four games. He continues to be inefficient on the ground, averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry in four of his last five games. Harris will need to rack up checkdown receptions in order to provide RB1 value in this game. The Chiefs rank 24th in Rush EPA, so this is a good matchup on paper, but I'll leave Harris in the lukewarm section due to his recent struggles.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Patrick Mahomes blew up against the Chargers, but there's a chance that he'll be without Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for this game. If that's the case, we can consider him as more of a low-end QB1 even against a Steelers defense that ranks 15th in Dropback EPA. I would expect a lot of dink-and-dunking to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams in that situation.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be in a great spot in a positive game script with the Chiefs as 7.5-point home favorites. CEH could see more of a workload if Hill and Kelce are unable to play. If the two Chiefs' stars can't go, CEH would move to the 'Love' section, as the Steelers rank 30th in Rush EPA. At the same time, Darrel Williams still has a role, so we still need to temper our expectations.
Injuries:
PIT TE Pat Freiermuth (concussion)
KC WR Tyreek Hill (COVID-19)
KC TE Travis Kelce (COVID-19)
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Broncos -1
Implied Total: Broncos (21.25) vs. Raiders (20.25)
Pace: Broncos (31st) vs. Raiders (21st)
Scheme: Broncos (53% Pass, 47% Rush) vs. Raiders (61% Pass, 39% Rush)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 23.1% Pass (10th), -0.4% Rush (8th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 17.1% Pass (25th), -11.0% Rush (13th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 7.0% Pass (20th), -4.8% Rush (23rd)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 16.2% Pass (15th), -15.5% Rush (28th)
Matchups We Love:
Broncos RBs
Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon are in a great spot against a Raiders defense that ranks 30th in PPR per game allowed to running backs. Las Vegas has allowed 87 receptions to the position, which is seventh-most in the NFL. Both players look like upside RB2s, especially if the Broncos play more run-heavy to take the pressure off Drew Lock.
Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)
Hunter Renfrow finally had a down week against the Browns, catching 3-of-5 targets for 32 yards. However, Renfrow should continue to see a ton of volume with Darren Waller out of the lineup. The Broncos rank 8th against wideouts, but Renfrow can rack up receptions in the underneath passing game. He's a high-floor WR2 in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
It's really tough to rely on Derek Carr in the fantasy semifinals with how he's playing lately. Carr has finished as QB20, QB22, and QB20 in his last three games. He goes up against a Broncos defense that ranks 9th in Dropback EPA, making this another tough matchup. Look elsewhere if you're desperate at quarterback this week.
Broncos WRs
It's crazy that such a talented group of wide receivers that includes Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick has provided such limited production, but that's been the case in Denver. Perhaps Drew Lock can unlock some of their upside, but it's hard to rely on that happening in the fantasy semifinals. The Raiders rank 5th against wide receivers this season. If I have to pick one, it's Courtland Sutton.
Other Matchups:
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Noah Fant has also been plagued by this dysfunctional passing game, finishing as TE33, TE20, TE14, and TE12 in his last four games. However, the Raiders rank 29th against tight ends, which puts Fant in the lukewarm section despite his struggles. Add in the fact that Fant plays a weaker position and you have a more appealing option than the Broncos wideouts.
Injuries:
DEN QB Teddy Bridgewater (concussion)
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -10.5
Implied Total: Football Team (18.25) vs. Cowboys (28.75)
Pace: Football Team (16th) vs. Cowboys (1st)
Scheme: Football Team (55% Pass, 45% Rush) vs. Cowboys (60% Pass, 40% Rush)
Football Team Off. DVOA: 11.2% Pass (19th), -13.4% Rush (22nd)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -21.1% Pass (1st), -7.1% Rush (19th)
Football Team Def. DVOA: 18.9% Pass (27th), -11.3% Rush (11th)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 24.0% Pass (9th), -4.0% Rush (14th)
Matchups We Love:
Cowboys RBs
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard are in a projected positive game script with the Cowboys as double-digit home favorites. Washington is tougher on the ground, ranking 11th in Rush DVOA, but the game script is too good here. I expect the Cowboys to handle Washington with a win by multiple scores. This would result in more volume and more scoring opportunities for this tandem. Elliott is on the RB1 radar while Pollard can be considered an upside FLEX.
Cowboys WRs
I'm going to lump these wideouts in one group here because it's tough to decide which one is going off, but I believe that one will against a Washington defense that ranks 30th against wide receivers. The best bet is CeeDee Lamb, who has been the most productive of the group. Amari Cooper hasn't put up more than 55 yards in five consecutive games. Michael Gallup has 31 targets in his last four games. Consider Lamb a low-end WR1 with Cooper and Gallup as upside WR3s in this spot. Dallas should have their way with this defense.
Matchups We Hate:
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
It's a shame that Terry McLaurin has been held back by poor quarterback play, but that's been the case as he's been the ultimate boom-or-bust receiver. The Cowboys pass defense has been phenomenal this season, as they rank 1st in pass DVOA. While Taylor Heinicke is likely to return and Washington should be forced to air it out, it's really tough to trust McLaurin right now. Consider him as a risky WR3.
Other Matchups:
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
Antonio Gibson should continue to see a hefty workload with J.D. McKissic sidelined, but Gibson is limited by his toe injury right now. This keeps him in the lukewarm section against a Cowboys defense that ranks 18th in Rush EPA. Consider Gibson as an RB2 with upside here. We'll need a close game for Gibson to approach his ceiling here.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Dak Prescott has been a major disappointment from a fantasy standpoint lately, finishing as QB22, QB26, and QB18 in his last three games. The Cowboys likely won't be forced into a shootout, which caps Dak's ceiling since there will likely be an uptick in rushing volume. I'd consider Prescott as a low-end QB1 in this game and would be willing to bench him for a comparable quarterback in a better matchup, like Joe Burrow. Having said that, Washington ranks 27th in Dropback EPA, so there's definitely a chance that Prescott bounces back.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
Dalton Schultz had a bounce-back game against the Giants, catching all eight of his targets for 67 yards and a touchdown. He remains on the TE1 radar against a Washington defense that ranks 13th against the position this year. Schultz has high touchdown equity on a team with a high implied total. The only reason why he's in the lukewarm section is that this could be a run-heavy game script and there are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense.
Injuries:
WAS RB Antonio Gibson (toe)
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints
Click here to read about the Monday Night Football matchups between the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints.
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