RADIO
Hi, y'all! Nine weeks of NFL action are in the books and we're moving on to another. Welcome to our Week 10 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. Each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
Frank Ammirante will start off by covering the first set of games that begin at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, and Justin Carter will take you home with his analysis of the late afternoon and evening games. Let's help guide you to that Week 10 victory!
If you have any additional lineup questions, follow us on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and @juscarts and feel free to ask away. You can also read about the Monday Night Football matchup. Let's help guide you to that Week 10 victory!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions
Matchups We Love:
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
Gibson was game-scripted out of a strong matchup, as Washington fell behind 20-3 to the Giants due to turnovers, forcing the team into obvious passing downs, which resulted in more volume for J.D. McKissic. The coaching staff has taken Gibson off the field on third downs/hurry-up situations, so if Washington is trailing by double-digits, it's bad news for Gibson. The good news is that this game should be more competitive for longer stretches, which means more touches for Gibson. The Lions just allowed 206 yards on the ground to Dalvin Cook, so this is a terrific matchup. Fire up Gibson as an upside RB2.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
McLaurin continues to impress despite inadequate quarterback play, getting the best of top corner James Bradberry for seven receptions, 115 yards, and one touchdown last week. PFF projects McLaurin to match up with Desmond Trufant (46.2 Coverage Grade), who has struggled with injuries this season. McLaurin has put up a 28.41% target share (7th in NFL) and 46.63% air yard share (1st in NFL). He's a clear-cut WR1 this week.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Hockenson is quietly having a breakout season, posting 34 receptions for 360 yards and five touchdowns. He's posted a 17.56% target share (10th among TEs) and ranks as TE4 with 12.8 PPR PPG. Last week, Hockenson was targeted eight times with Kenny Golladay out of the lineup. Golladay's status is in doubt for this game, so we could continue to see more volume for Hockenson. Washington ranks 27th in PPR PPG to tight ends, making this an exploitable matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)
Stafford left last week's game in the fourth quarter with a possible concussion, but reports state that he should be good to go for this game. Stafford is currently QB24 in PPG and he'll likely be without his top target once again this week. That's bad news against a Washington defense that ranks 9th in PPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Stafford has regressed to a matchup-based streamer and this is a tough opponent. Look elsewhere this week.
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, DET)
Jones had a terrific opportunity for a huge game as the Lions' WR1 against a depleted Vikings secondary, but he disappointed for only three receptions, 43 yards, and a touchdown. It looks like Jones is no longer the same player that he once was, so it's hard to trust him even with Golladay out of the lineup. PFF projects him to be matched up with Ronald Darby (68.4 Coverage Grade). Washington is allowing the fewest PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers. I'd steer clear of Jones this week.
Other Matchups:
J.D. McKissic (RB, WAS)
McKissic has become the passing down back for Washington, putting him firmly in play with Alex "Captain Checkdown" Smith taking over at quarterback. McKissic was caught 9-of-14 targets for 65 yards last week, making him an intriguing FLEX in PPR leagues. If the Lions jump out to a lead this week, McKissic could be in line to reach his ceiling once again. I expect it to be a close game, so we'll see more Gibson than McKissic, but the latter is definitely an option as he faces off with his former team.
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
Swift is the preferred play in this backfield, but the coaching staff stubbornly continues to use a three-back committee, dividing the snaps fairly evenly with Swift (40%), Kerryon Johnson (33.33%), and Adrian Peterson (26.67%). Swift (16 touches) had more volume than Peterson (11 touches) and Johnson (7 touches), but their presence still caps upside. Washington was gashed on the ground last week, allowing a combined 27 carries for 142 yards (5.26 YPC) to Wayne Gallman, Alfred Morris, and Dion Lewis. Consider Swift an upside FLEX until Matt Patricia comes to his senses.
Adrian Peterson (RB, DET)
Normally I wouldn't even consider Peterson because of his touchdown dependence, but this is a revenge game against a team that surprisingly cut the veteran right before the season. We could see the coaching staff give more work to Peterson this week as a way to stick it to his former team. While we have seen the revenge game narrative fail recently (Le'Veon Bell vs. Jets, Melvin Gordon vs. Chargers), but Peterson is worth a look as a punt play in DFS tournaments.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Matchups We Love:
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
Fournette is starting to take over this backfield, out-snapping Ronald Jones by 42.5% in the last two games. Fournette has become the passing down back in this offense, which gives him a higher weekly floor than Jones. The Bucs should be able to find success on the ground this week, as the Panthers rank 28th in PPR PPG allowed to opposing running backs. Consider Fournette an upside FLEX for this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
Gronk had a 16.22% target share in Chris Godwin's return and Antonio Brown's debut, which is a 6.75% decrease from the previous three weeks. This makes Gronk more of a touchdown-dependent tight end once again, as there are simply too many mouths to feed in this offense. The Panthers rank 14th in PPR PPG against tight ends, but that number is inflated by Travis Kelce's blow-up last week. Prior to that game, Carolina ranked 9th against tight ends. Gronk is a low-floor TE1 this week.
Mike Davis (RB, CAR)
Christian McCaffrey is expected to miss this game, so Davis is back on the RB2 radar. The problem is that this is one of the toughest matchups for running backs, as the Bucs are allowing a league-best 2.95 YPC. The Panthers are also starting to use Curtis Samuel more out of the backfield, so we can't look at Davis' early success to determine his rest-of-season value. Consider him more of a high-end FLEX for this game.
UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey is officially out for this week.
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
Moore has caught a combined 4-of-9 targets for 73 yards in the last two games. The emergence of Curtis Samuel has lowered Moore's weekly floor, making him a volatile WR3 going forward. Our boy Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) noticed a correlation: Moore has had his worst games with offensive tackle Russell Okung out of the lineup. This is because Moore has the highest aDOT on the team, so his production depends on the pass-protection that Okung provides. With Okung's status in doubt for this week, we could see Bridgewater under duress, so it will be a tough game for Moore. Moore could also see some coverage from Carlton Davis (71.4 PFF Coverage Grade). Consider Moore a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.
Other Matchups:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Brady is coming off one of the worst games of his career, so we can expect a bounce-back against a Panthers Defense that just got shredded by Patrick Mahomes for 372 yards and four touchdowns. However, prior to this game, the Panthers were playing as a run-funnel defense, as they had been stout against the pass, ranking 7th in PPG. This means that we should temper our expectations for Brady in this game. Consider him a low-end QB1 in a potential shootout this week.
Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)
Jones is in a smash-spot like Fournette, but he has a lower floor because of his lack of usage in the passing game. If the Bucs get out to an early lead, we could see more volume for Jones, putting him in play as a FLEX. It's just hard prefer him over Fournette after what he have seen over the last two weeks. It really looks like Bruce Arians is starting to lean on his veteran back more.
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
Godwin returned last week and caught 3-of-6 targets for 41 yards. PFF projects him to be matched up with Corn Elder (71% Coverage Grade). The Panthers have allowed big games to WR1s like Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley, but it's tough to figure out which Bucs wide receiver will have the best game on any given week. Godwin looks like the best bet because he's been Brady's preferred target over Mike Evans and AB is still adapting to his new team. Consider Godwin an upside WR3 until we get more clarity in this passing game with AB now in the fold.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Evans caught 4-of-6 targets for 64 yards last week against the Saints. The problem is that he's become such a touchdown-dependent player whenever Godwin has been in the lineup. Add AB into the mix and you're looking at a boom-or-bust option with very low floor. This could turn out to be a blowout game, as I expect the Bucs to play well after being embarrassed on Sunday Night Football. That's bad news for Evans against this run-funnel defense. Consider him a boom-or-bust WR3 in this game.
Antonio Brown (WR, TB)
Brown caught 3-of-5 targets for 31 yards in his Bucs debut, including an impressive 15-yard grab that looked like vintage AB. He played 78% of the snaps and led the team with a 27.12% air-yard share, which bodes well for his rest-of-season outlook. I would expect Brady to continue to make a conscious effort to get AB the ball to try to get him up to speed with this offense. Consider AB a more stable WR3 than Evans in this game.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR)
Bridgewater has a tough task against one of the best defenses in the NFL, now with a chip on their shoulder after that embarrassing loss to the Saints. Prior to that game, the Bucs were allowing the fifth-fewest PPG to opposing quarterbacks. With top tackle Okung likely out, Bridgewater will likely be pressured often, forcing him to rely on checkdown and intermediate passes. Consider him a QB2 for this week.
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
Like Moore, Anderson could see some Carlton Davis, but Anderson has a much higher floor because of his target share and lower aDOT. Anderson has out-targetted Moore 29-to-14 over the last three weeks, so it's clear that he's the WR1 in this offense. Consider Anderson a WR2 in this matchup, as I expect the Panthers to be forced to air it out as they try to play catch-up in this game.
Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR)
Samuel has been on fire in the last three weeks, catching 19-of-20 targets for 184 yards and two touchdowns. He's also added 7 carries for 41 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. This type of usage makes him matchup-proof as the Swiss Army knife for this offense. It's clear that offensive coordinator Joe Brady is really starting to make Samuel a focal point here. We could also see them opt to use him more in the backfield than last time CMC was hurt, as there's clearly more trust in Samuel now than ever before. Fire him up as an upside WR3.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
Matchups We Love:
Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU)
Since Bill O'Brien's firing, Watson is QB4 in fantasy PPG. He takes on a Browns Defense allowing the fifth-most PPG to opposing passers. With David Johnson out of the lineup for this game, we could see Watson air it out and even run more often. In a potential shootout with the sixth-highest total on the slate, Watson is an elite QB1 with a nice combination of floor and ceiling.
Will Fuller (WR, HOU)
Fuller has been terrific this season, ranking as WR16 in PPR PPG and scoring a touchdown in six consecutive games. PFF projects him to be matched up with Terrance Mitchell (62.9 Coverage Grade), which is the easier matchup of the two Browns' corners. Despite Fuller's lower target share, I still like him over Cooks as the top target in this offense. Facing a Browns defense allowing the fifth-most PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers, Fuller is an upside WR2.
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Cooks has really coming on strong since O'Brien's firing, ranking as WR6 in PPR PPG. He's been targeted 39 times over the last four games, as he's really become a focal point in this offense. The higher target share gives Cooks a higher floor than Fuller, but there's less upside this week due to the projected matchup with Denzel Ward (75.1 Coverage Grade). Consider Cooks a WR2, but I prefer Fuller this week and moving forward.
Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE)
Hunt has a smash spot against a Texans Defense allowing the third-most PPR PPG to opposing running backs. This is a defense that has consistently been gashed on the ground for 5.44 YPC, which ranks dead last in the NFL. There's a chance that Nick Chubb will return to action this week, but even if he does, I would consider Hunt an upside RB2 as I expect the Browns to attack the Texans on the ground. If Chubb is out, Hunt is an elite RB1.
UPDATE: Nick Chubb will officially make his return this week.
Austin Hooper (TE, CLE)
Hooper returns from injury this week to take on a Texans defense that is tied for 22nd in PPR PPG to opposing tight ends. Prior to his injury, Hooper had been targeted 23 times in his previous three games, so it's clear that he was becoming a fixture in this passing game. With Odell Beckham Jr. now out for the season, you have to think that Hooper's target share continues to grow. He's a sure-fire TE1 this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Mayfield takes on a Texans defense that ranks 23rd in PPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks, so this is a good matchup. The problem is that it's a run-funnel defense and the Browns love to run the football, which means that the volume might not be there for Mayfield this week. He's a QB2 who you're only starting if you're absolutely desperate at the position.
Other Matchups:
Duke Johnson (RB, HOU)
Johnson has a chance to take the reins in this backfield with David Johnson likely out for this game. In DJ's absence last week, Duke totaled 20 touches, so it's clear that head coach Romeo Crennel trusts him as his bell-cow. The Browns have been stout against the run, allowing the eighth-fewest PPR PPG to running backs, but Duke's projecteds volume and receiving ability would keep him in play as an RB2 if David Johnson sits.
UPDATE: David Johnson is officially out for this week and has been placed on IR.
Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Landry had a much needed week of rest with the bye and he's now a full participant in practice this week. The Texans have allowed seventh-most PPR PPG to opposing wideouts, so the matchup is there, especially in this projected shootout. However, it will be tough to decide which Browns WR will have the better game this week with the Texans being a run-funnel defense. Consider Landry more of a floor play on the WR3/4 fringe.
Rashard Higgins (WR, CLE)
Higgins has shown an established rapport with Mayfield and the Texans secondary just got roasted by D.J. Chark for 146 yards and a touchdown. He's the preferred play at wide receiver over Landry because of the downfield targets against a suspect secondary. However, we need to temper our expectations because top corner Bradley Roby is back in the lineup this week. Higgins has more upside but with a lower floor than Landry.
Injury Notes:
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE) - If he plays, he's a clear-cut RB1 and Hunt is an upside RB2 in this terrific matchup.
David Johnson (RB, HOU) - We could see a reduced workload if he plays, making him more of a FLEX.
UPDATE: David Johnson is officially out for this week and has been placed on IR.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers
Matchups We Love:
James Robinson (RB, JAX)
One of the biggest surprises in the NFL just keeps chugging along. Robinson is currently ranked as RB6 in PPR PPG and he gets another great matchup against a Packers Defense allowing the second-most PPR PPG to opposing running backs. This a projected negative game script with the Jags as 14-point underdogs, but Robinson should still see enough check-downs to provide Top-12 value this week if the Jags were to fall behind early.
D.J. Chark (WR, JAX)
Chark found life with rookie Jake Luton last week, catching 7-of-12 targets for 146 yards and a touchdown. He's the clear-cut WR1 in this offense and this is a positive game script with the Jags likely forced to air it out as they try to play catch-up. Chark gets to avoid Jaire Alexander, who is doubtful to play in this game. Fire up Chark as a WR2.
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Rodgers should be able to pick apart a defense that has allowed 8.49 yards per attempt (31st) and 26.9 PPG (30th) to opposing quarterbacks. The one risk here is that the Packers jump out to an early lead through the running game, but Rodgers is still a Top-1o play this week in a cupcake matchup.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Adams is currently WR1 with 28.1 PPR PPG, which is 7.1 more points than WR2 D.K. Metcalf. Adams has been absolutely phenomenal and he gets another smash spot against a Jaguars Defense allowing 11th-most PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers. Like Rodgers, the one risk here is that the Packers likely won't need to throw as much in this projected blowout.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
The Jaguars are equally bad against the run as they are against the pass, ranking 27th in PPR PPG to opposing running backs. This is a positive game script with the Packers favored by 14 points, but at the same time, if the Packers are up by multiple scores, they could choose to limit Jones' workload to keep him fresh, especially since this is his second game back from injury. Jones is still a Top-5 RB play, but keep this in mind when you consider him in DFS tournaments.
Other Matchups:
Jamaal Williams (RB, GB)
Williams returns to the lineup for this smash spot and he's definitely in play as a FLEX. The Packers should be able to control this game from start to finish - if they're up by multiple scores in the second half, we could see the team limit Jones and feed Williams more often than usual. Williams makes for a solid pivot from Jones in DFS tournaments.
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
Tonyan has lost his luster since his three-touchdown breakout, catching 11-of-14 targets for 141 yards in four games in his last four games. The Jaguars have allowed the third-most PPR PPG to opposing tight ends, so this is definitely a chance for Tonyan to get back on track, but he's on the TE1/2 fringe because of his sporadic usage.
Injury Notes:
Allen Lazard (WR, GB) - If he plays, he'll be an upside WR3 in this smash spot.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Matchups We Love:
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
Sanders returns to action to take back his role as the bell-cow for the Eagles. The Giants rank 17th in PPR PPG allowed to opposing running backs and this is a potential positive game script since the Eagles are the favorites here. I don't expect the team to limit Sanders' workload in his return because they just had the bye week, so fire him up as an elite RB1.
Jalen Reagor (WR, PHI)
With top corner James Bradberry locked onto Travis Fulgham, I really think that we'll see a breakout game from this promising rookie receiver. I always like to play rookies following their bye week, especially players like Reagor who were originally projected to be top options in their offense but had their seasons slowed by injury. The Giants rank 23rd in PPR PPG allowed to opposing wideouts and I think Reagor gets loose downfield here. Fire him up as an upside WR3.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Engram is starting to turn his high volume into strong production, catching 16-of-29 targets for 155 yards and one touchdown in his last three games. This is a smash spot against an Eagles Defense allowing the fifth-most PPR PPG to opposing tight ends. Look for Engram to be the focal point in this passing game for the Giants as they try to upset their division rivals.
Matchups We Hate:
Darius Slayton (WR, NYG)
Slayton has caught 10-of-17 targets for 126 yards and one touchdown in his last four games. It's likely that he'll see some coverage from Eagles top corner Darius Slay, who remains as one of the best CBs in the NFL. Sterling Shepard has really started to eat into Slayton's production, so he's a player to avoid this week. Consider Slayton a volatile player on the WR3/4 fringe for this week.
Other Matchups:
Carson Wentz (QB, PHI)
Wentz finally has all of his weapons back and looks ready to roll, but temper your expectations against an underrated Giants Defense that ranks 13th in PPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks. While I still consider Wentz as a QB1 in this game, I wouldn't consider him in DFS because of the matchup.
Travis Fulgham (WR, PHI)
Fulgham is projected to be covered by James Bradberry and with the Eagles now healthy on offense, it's hard to rely on the high volume that this surprising breakout was seeing earlier in the season. Fulgham can be bumped down to more of a floor play at WR3 until we see how the target share shakes out with this offense.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Goedert has become a popular breakout by many observers because Zach Ertz remains out of the lineup, but the Giants have been stingy against tight ends, ranking 10th in PPR PPG allowed to the position so far this season. I view Goedert as a Top 10 TE this week, but I don't exactly *love* this matchup. I'll be looking elsewhere in DFS.
Wayne Gallman (RB, NYG)
Gallman has become the top back in this offense, but he's still ceding touches to Alfred Morris. This makes him a FLEX play against an Eagles defense that ranks 10th in PPR PPG allowed to opposing running backs. The good news is that Gallman is seeing some work in the passing game (eight targets in last three), so maybe he gets a few checkdowns in this spot.
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
Shepard is starting to overtake Slayton as the top WR in this offense, out-targeting the sophomore 26 to 13 in the last three games. Golden Tate's status remains in doubt for this week, so we could see Shepard line up in the slot once again, where he projects to be covered by Nickell Robey-Coleman (52.3 PFF Coverage Grade). Consider Shepard a floor play on the WR3/4 fringe.
UPDATE: Golden Tate is trending in the right direction, be sure to check back for further updates.
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Matchups We Love:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Herbert has exceeded even the wildest expectations this year, ranking as QB5 in fantasy PPG. He takes on a Dolphins Defense that ranks 22nd in PPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Herbert has become the focal point of this offense, so he's an every-week QB1 who is quickly becoming matchup-proof. The Chargers have consistently been involved in shootouts with Herbert (62.2 average point total in last five games) so fire him up once again this week.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Allen has been absolutely peppered with targets by Herbert, with 36 in his last three games. The Dolphins rank 21st in PPR PPG allowed to opposing wideouts. Allen has the desired combination of high volume and exploitable matchup, making him an elite WR1 for this game.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tua looked terrific in an upset win on the road against the contending Cardinals, throwing for 248 yards and two touchdowns while rushing seven times for 35 yards. The rushing volume really raises Tua's floor. The Chargers rank 25th in PPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks, so this is a real smash spot for the rookie out of Alabama. I consider Tua to be a QB1 in this matchup and will be playing him in DFS tournaments. He's going to smash in this spot.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Gesicki only has eight targets in his last three games, but this is a smash spot against a Chargers Defense that ranks 26th in PPR PPG allowed to opposing tight ends. Perhaps we'll see an uptick in targets in Preston Williams' absence, which is good news for Gesicki in a game that should feature a ton of scoring opportunities.
Matchups We Hate:
Hunter Henry (TE, LAC)
Henry has failed to eclipse 40 yards in five consecutive games and now faces a Dolphins defense allowing the fifth-fewest PPR PPG to opposing tight ends. He'll likely need to find the end zone to deliver fantasy value in this game. It just seems to me that Herbert prefers to target his wide receivers more, so I'm out on Henry.
Other Matchups:
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
Preston Williams was becoming Tua's top target, but the sophomore WR has been placed on IR, so Parker is in line to see a bump in targets. Parker caught 6-of-7 balls for 64 yards last week and now faces a Chargers defense that ranks 10th in PPR PPG allowed to opposing wideouts. While the matchup looks tough on paper, the projected volume with shootout potential keeps Parker in play as a WR3.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Williams is an upside WR3 due to his big-play ability in an offense that has become increasingly pass-heavy with Herbert at the helm. The Dolphins allowed deep-threat Christian Kirk to get loose in the secondary for 123 yards and a touchdown, so we could see Williams make some big plays in this one. Williams remains in the lukewarm section because the Dolphins defense is still pretty solid and he's shown some volatility throughout this season.
Player Notes:
Chargers Running Game - There's a chance that Justin Jackson misses this game, but I'm still not considering anyone in this committee.
UPDATE: Justin Jackson is officially out for this week.
Dolphins Running Game - If Matt Breida plays, I expect him to handle early downs with Jordan Howard taking over as the goal-line back. I'd steer clear of this backfield.
UPDATE: Matt Breida is not expected to play this week.
Hi, Justin taking over now. Thanks, Frank!
Matchups Analysis - 4:05/4:25 PM ET Games
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Here's the thing. Yes, the Cardinals allow just the 18th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but they do allow the ninth-most rushing yards per game to the position, something that should boost Josh Allen some. Also boosting Allen? That after dipping down somewhat -- something I wrote about last week -- he appears to be back on track as a strong QB1 play. Start him as one this week.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
I should not need to tell you why you should start Kyler Murray. The dangerous dual-threat quarterback faces a Bills Defense that's taken a clear step back in 2020, and Murray easily projects to be a QB1 play in what should be a high-scoring game.
Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI)
The Bills allow the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. With Kenyan Drake looking like he'll be out again, Edmonds will see a high snap rate again -- it was 96 percent last week -- and projected volume makes him a low-end RB1, even if he only averaged 2.8 yards per carry last week. If Drake winds up playing, things become complicated and I might avoid this backfield for DFS purposes, but for now, I'm high on Edmonds.
UPDATE: Kenyan Drake is expected to give it a go in Week 10.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Diggs has benefited a lot from Josh Allen's improvement and has become a solid WR1 on a weekly basis, which was NOT what we expected when he arrived in Buffalo. His current per game averages -- seven catches on 10.1 targets for 90.3 yards and 0.3 touchdowns -- are really good. It's good to see how Diggs is playing.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
Look: the lack of consistency should definitely worry you, but you have to start Hopkins as a WR1 this week. That he has a two-catch and three-catch game over the past three weeks isn't great, but let's not forget he was targeted eight times in one of those and sandwiched between those games was his third game of the year with 10 or more receptions.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Kirk has been on fire lately, something I wrote about this week. An offense that was expected to spread the ball around a ton isn't doing that quite as much, with Kirk getting seven or more targets in three of the last four games. He has five touchdowns in the past three games and has become a key red zone target for Kyler Murray. Start him confidently as a low-end WR2.
Matchups We Hate:
Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
Singletary had two carries for one yard last week. Sure, he also added three catches, but his snap percentage has now dropped three games in a row. I'm not starting Singletary unless I'm forced to.
Tight Ends
Whether it be Buffalo's Tyler Kroft or Arizona's Dan Arnold, this is not a game where you're looking for a streaming tight end.
Other Matchups:
Zack Moss (RB, BUF)
Moss is trending up as Singletary trends down. Already seeing more red zone work than Singletary, Moss is now seeing more work everywhere. I don't love him this week as the Bills have moved on some from being a run team, but his touchdown upside makes him a decent RB3 play with upside.
John Brown and Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
There are reasons to like both guys in what should be a battle of offense this week, but both also have their limitations. For Brown, it's that he's got a knee injury and three games with one or fewer receptions. He's a hard guy to trust and is just a WR4 play for that reason. As for Beasley, I see him as a solid PPR WR3, but because his value is tied to volume and not necessarily to yards and touchdowns, he's got a lower ceiling than you might like if you're looking for some big swings this week.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Matchups We Love:
Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)
Over the past two weeks, Jerry Jeudy leads all NFL receivers in air yards and is tied for the lead in targets. He looked like he was slumping for a bit, but the rookie is back on track as the best rookie receiver in the NFL. Consider him a strong WR3 play with huge upside this week.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
Denver allows the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, which is good, but it's not good enough for me to even entertain the idea of not playing Darren Waller with confidence. He's had just one game all year with fewer than six targets. He's one of the NFL's best tight ends and a must-start in fantasy.
Matchups We Hate:
Henry Ruggs III (WR, LV)
With two catches for eight yards in his last two games, Ruggs should not be on your fantasy radar.
Other Matchups:
Drew Lock (QB, DEN)
Good news for Drew Lock: he looked like an NFL quarterback last week! Bad news for Drew Lock: he has a tougher matchup this week against the Raiders. Last week's opponent, the Falcons, allows the second-most fantasy points per game to QBs at 26.8 points. This week's, the Raiders, allow the seventh-most at 21.5. Still a good matchup, but I'd need Lock to be playing a bottom four pass defense to be confident in starting him. He's a decent streaming play, but don't forget that he's had some real struggles as an NFL starter.
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
I might have loved this matchup if it weren't for that fact that Carr's last two games saw him average 138 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. I love that he faces this Denver defense, but I loved that he faced a bad Chargers Defense too, and he only threw for 165 yards against them. Carr's a fine streaming play, but he's got a pretty low floor to deal with.
Melvin Gordon III and Phillip Lindsay (RB, DEN)
This is now a real timeshare between these two backs, which lowers their ceilings and floors. A solid matchup against the Raiders could theoretically be good for one or both players, but with how they're splitting the rushing touches so much, there's limits. I'd consider both RB3 plays, with Gordon having a little more upside due to his work in the passing game.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
The Broncos allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, but I'm projecting Jacobs to be relatively safe from that since he enters the week second in the NFL in carries. That volume gives him a high floor and makes him a solid RB2 option with RB1 upside, even against this defense.
Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler (WR, DEN)
Nothing against either guy, but Drew Lock's just not the quarterback to support three fantasy-relevant wide receivers. So, while Patrick and Hamler are both talented receivers, there's plenty of reason to avoid starting either guy. Patrick has had trouble producing big yardage numbers, while Hamler's role isn't solidified enough yet for me to trust him.
Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)
Agholor has had some great games and some forgettable games. His reliance on big plays makes him a boom-or-bust WR4 play, even if his boom numbers would be solid WR2 numbers. Meanwhile, Renfrow is fine as a flex play in full PPR leagues, but I don't think I'd trust him too much.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Questionable with an ankle injury, if Fant plays, you probably have to slot him into your fantasy lineup, but the Raiders have been pretty good at limiting opposing tight ends, so I wouldn't expect an explosion from Fant, even if he's able to provide you with solid numbers.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Matchups We Love:
Jared Goff (QB, LAR)
Seattle allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Even though Goff had had a few disappointing games, he showed last week that he can still pile up the numbers when needed. It'll be needed this week. I've got Goff as a QB1 play this week.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
Don't know how you can view Metcalf as anything but a must-play, even with Jalen Ramsey potentially matched up with him for most of this game. Nine or more targets in three of the past four games. Touchdowns in all but two games this year. Ony one game with under 92 receiving yards. Metcalf is just a monster right now.
Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Short and simple argument here: the Seahawks allow more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team. Both guys are high-end WR2s with clear WR1 upside.
Matchups We Hate:
Chris Carson (RB, SEA)
If Carson plays -- he's missed two games with a foot sprain -- I'd be very, very cautious with him. The injury concerns are one reason, as is a matchup with a Rams Defense allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. I guess you probably have to start Carson in season-long, but it wouldn't be the worst idea to bench him if you have another solid RB2 play, and he scares the hell out of me when it comes to DFS.
UPDATE: Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde have both been ruled out.
Rams Running Backs
Just don't know how we can trust this backfield in a game where the Rams should be able to get whatever they want in the passing game. Cam Akers went from consecutive games with no touches to nine carries and a reception last week. Darrell Henderson has a thigh injury so we don't yet know if we'll see him. And Malcolm Brown has the highest upside here because he has back-to-back 10-carry games, but he continues to not do a ton with those chances. Meh. Just a lot of meh here.
Greg Olsen (TE, SEA)
Not a great matchup for Olsen against this Rams defense, plus Olsen last topped 35 yards way back in Week 3. He's not on my fantasy radar.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
Seattle is much better against tight ends than wide receivers has one game with more than three receptions. He's scored a touchdown in just one game this year, and while he scored three of them in that game, he can't keep living off 2019 hype and one good 2020 game forever.
Other Matchups:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
I'll only put a player like Wilson in this section if he has a bottom-five matchup, and he does this week, facing a Rams defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Wilson's obviously a QB1 play in season-long leagues, but he's an expensive player with a bad matchup when it comes to DFS contests, which is something I'll keep in mind as I still put him in too many DFS lineups.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
While Metcalf is a locked-and-loaded WR1 at this point, there's a lot more volatility with Lockett, who has had some massive booms plus plenty of disappointing weeks mixed in. He has a pair of three-touchdown games. He also has 44 yards or fewer in four of the last five games with no touchdowns in any of those four outings. Lot of upside. Lot of downside. You start him in season-long because of that upside and maybe don't use him much in DFS because of that downside.
Gerald Everett (TE, LAR)
Everett's usage is trending up, and he was targeted nine times last game. I don't love him this week and I already mentioned the Seattle defense being fairly good against tight ends, but if I need a streamer this week, Everett's a better option than Higbee.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Matchups We Love:
James Conner (RB, PIT)
The Bengals allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Provided things don't somehow go like last week -- Conner had nine caries for just 22 yards -- we should see a volume-aided low-end RB1 performance out of the fourth-year back.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
The Steelers No. 1 receiver has four games with double-digit targets this year, including two of his past three contests. If we take away games where he played under 25 percent of snaps because of injury, that high target number has been reached in all but one game. Johnson should be locked in as a fantasy WR2.
Eric Ebron (TE, PIT)
The Bengals allow the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Ebron has touchdowns in back-to-back contests plus four or more targets in every game since Week 1. I know trusting Eric Ebron is always a frightening proposition, but the stars look like they can align this week for him.
Matchups We Hate:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Pittsburgh allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and while Burrow has shown promise, he's still a rookie taking on one of the NFL's best pass defenses. Garbage time has the potential to save Burrow's day, but there's significant risk here and Burrow should be played like a low-end QB2.
A.J. Green (WR, CIN)
Honestly, I'm kind of done with Green at this point. He's had two good games in Week 6 and 7, but other than that has struggled to be productive this season. His 49.2 percent catch rate is scarily low, and his 39.5 receiving yards per game are a sharp drop from his past self.
Other Matchups:
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)
The Steelers are good. The Bengals are not as good. That means this matchup has the potential to be one where game script works against Big Ben, keeping him from being the QB1 play that you might expect him to be in this matchup.
Giovani Bernard (RB, CIN)
We haven't seen Mixon since Week 6 and more than likely won't see him this week, leaving Gio as the lead back. Bernard has gotten some good volume the last couple of weeks and has three touchdowns in the past two games, but this matchup with the Steelers has the makings of one where Cincy has to move away from the run game, and I haven't loved Bernard's yards per carry enough to think he'll be productive on fewer opportunities. Low-end RB2 play. And if Mixon is magically ready, I'd fade them both.
UPDATE: Joe Mixon is officially ruled out this week.
Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)
In what could be a rough game for the Bengals and their offense, volume and red zone opportunities still keep Boyd in the WR2 conversation, with just a little more downside than usual.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
The Steelers allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers despite their defense mostly shutting down quarterbacks. Weird, huh! Higgins has been on fire lately, piling up yards and scores, and while I don't love his individual matchups this week, I think I'd feel confident using him as a WR3, though I'd be worried about playing him in DFS.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT)
He's playing some great football, but I'm still cautious with Smith-Schuster based on his early season struggles. Maybe I shouldn't be, as he's a WR3 play with what looks like a good matchup.
Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)
With 22 targets in the past two games, Claypool is on the rise again and is helping us forget about Week 7, when he has one catch for a loss of two yards. He should continue to see plenty of work in this offense and will be a strong WR3 play with upside and is one of my favorite big-play swings in DFS.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Matchups We Love:
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
He's matchup proof. I hate this meeting with San Fran on paper, but I'm still going to have an unhealthy amount of Kamara in DFS because no one who is healthy (except Dalvin Cook?) has the upside Kamara has. He impacts every phase of the game offensively.
Matchups We Hate:
Nick Mullens (QB, SF)
It's hard to imagine a scenario where you play Mullens outside of a two-QB league where he's literally your only option. We just saw this defense decimate Tom Brady and the Bucs; there's no way I trust Mullens against them.
Latavius Murray (RB, NO)
Touchdown-dependent back against a run defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Pass.
Other Matchups:
Drew Brees (QB, NO)
The Niners defense has gotten worse, but there's still just enough there for me to think twice about using Brees in DFS. But in season-long leagues, go ahead and play him as a QB1. He's got weapons again and he knows how to use them.
Jerick McKinnon, et. all (RB, SF)
I can't even keep track of all the Niners rushers at this point, but I know that whoever the lead back is -- and it looks like it's Jerick McKinnon this week -- doesn't have the same upside that they would have had on the 2019 49ers. McKinnon, for example, found the end zone last week, but has also had three games with zero yards or less. OR LESS. Lot of downside there. He's an RB3 play, and then whoever else takes snaps -- Ja'Mycal Hasty, right? -- is off my radar.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
I'd guess there's enough volume here thanks to all the other injuries on this team to make Aiyuk worth a play as a WR3, but I wouldn't feel super great about it.
Michael Thomas (WR, NO)
Finally healthy and back on the field, Thomas responded last game with five catches for 51 yards while playing just about half of the offensive snaps for the Saints. If we knew he was a full-go without snap count issues, he'd easily be a WR1 play in season-long and DFS. As is, you still play him in season-long, but there are enough concerns to avoid paying up for him in DFS contests.
Other Saints Receivers
Emmanuel Sanders is the main guy, but there's also Tre'Quan Smith and Deonte Harris. With how Drew Brees is spreading the ball around, none of these guys are trustworthy options in season-long.
Jordan Reed (TE, SF)
I guess if he's healthy, Reed projects to get enough work to be a streaming play at tight end thanks to the whole "this team has no pass-catchers" thing?
Jared Cook (TE, NO)
Don't love the target share, or the yardage totals, or the emergence of Adam Trautman. But Cook has still found the end zone four times this year and remains a solid season-long start.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
I know that Jackson hasn't been 2019 Jackson this year, but the Patriots Defense just continues to get worse, and Jackson's dual-threat abilities make him a QB1 play this week. Jackson should find some solid room to run plus has a good shot at throwing for multiple touchdowns against this D.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Turns out that the only actual receiving threat in a bad offense can still be very good when he's getting fed almost unlimited targets. Meters has been a fantasy WR1 over the last three games -- something I wrote about here -- and considering his DFS cost and the fact that if you roster him in season-long, you probably already have some solid other receivers, Meyers looks like a great value and flex option due to that projected target share. Don't play him over a top WR2 or anything, but if you're considering him your WR3, you should come away happy.
Matchups We Hate:
Cam Newton (QB, NE)
Just some really bad weeks here for Newton. Since returning in Week 6 after missing time with COVID-19, Newton has zero touchdown passes and five interceptions, with one game of 200-plus yards. Even as his rushing upside remains a thing and his four rushing touchdowns in four games has boosted his value, the poor passing numbers can't be ignored.
Patriots Running Backs
Maybe there's enough upside for James White for me to play him, but with Baltimore allowing fewer fantasy points per game to running backs than any other team is, I wouldn't feel super confident about that possibility.
Other Matchups:
Ravens Running Backs
Mark Ingram II (ankle) could be back. If so, the situation with him plus J.K. Dobbins plus Gus Edwards is going to be messy. Thankfully, New England allows the 11th-most points to running backs, so there's potential here for each guy as flex plays in season-long, but good luck predicting things enough to decide which guy belongs in your DFS lineup! If Ingram plays, I'd say none of them. If he doesn't, I'd lean Dobbins.
UPDATE: Mark Ingram is looking like his will return this week.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Man, this wide receiving corps. Brown's the guy to play in it, but considering he has just one game since Week 3 with more than four catches, there's a lot of bust potential. He has just four total receptions in the past two games, and while big play upside makes him playable as a WR3 in season-long, his floor is incredibly low.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Things working against Andrews: New England allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, that his last game with more than three receptions was Week 5. Things working for him: a shallow position and the fact that the Ravens lack of other pass-catchers means a big Andrews game is always a possibility.
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Click here to read about the Monday Night Football matchup between the Vikings and Bears.
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