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Hi, y'all! Thirteen weeks of NFL action are in the books and it's time for the fantasy playoffs! Welcome to our Week 14 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football.
Each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
Frank Ammirante be covering the entire Sunday slate for this week. You can also read about the Monday Night Football matchups as well. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's help guide you to that Week 14 victory!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears
Matchups We Love:
Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU)
Since their Week 11 bye, the Bears have given up big games to Aaron Rodgers (QB4) and Matthew Stafford (QB5). The two quarterbacks completed a combined 48-of-71 pass attempts (67.6%) for 613 yards (8.63 yards per attempt), seven touchdowns, and one interception. Watson has been phenomenal since Week 5 (Bill O'Brien's firing), ranking as QB2 in eight games. During that span, Watson has only one game with less than 19 fantasy points, which was against the Browns in poor weather conditions. Watson has established himself as a Top-5 QB each week.
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Cooks caught 5-of-8 targets for 65 yards in his first game without Will Fuller and now has a seemingly tough matchup against a Bears Defense allowing 8.16 yards per target (14th) and 32.6 fantasy points per game to wide receivers (5th). However, if we dig deeper, we can see that the Bears have allowed a ton of production to wide receivers lately. Since Week 9, they have given up big games to A.J. Brown (4 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD), Justin Jefferson (8 REC, 135 YDS), Adam Thielen (4 REC, 43 YDS, 2 TD), Davante Adams (6 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD), and Marvin Jones (8 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD).
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
Montgomery gets another smash spot against a Texans Defense that has allowed 323 carries (32nd), 5.19 yards per carry (32nd), and 32.2 fantasy points per game to running backs (31st). Since Trubisky reclaimed the starting job, Monty has finished as RB6 and RB1. This projects as a close game with the Bears as 2-point underdogs, so we can reasonably project another positive game script for Montgomery. Fire him up as an RB1.
Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)
Robinson also has a great matchup, as the Texans are giving up 8.58 yards per target (23rd) and 38.7 fantasy points per game to wide receivers (21st). Without Bradley Roby (now suspended for the season), the Texans have given up big games to Davante Adams (13 REC, 196 YDS, 2 TD), D.J. Chark (7 REC, 146 YDS, 1 TD), and T.Y. Hilton (8 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD). A-Rob is a WR1 this week.
Other Matchups:
David Johnson (RB, HOU)
Johnson ran for 44 yards and a touchdown on ten carries in his return from injury. He also caught all six of his targets for 24 yards. The Bears have allowed 293 rush attempts (28th), 4.08 yards per carry (13th), and 21.3 fantasy points per game to running backs (8th). We can consider DJ a volume-based RB2 in this matchup.
UPDATE: David Johnson has been ruled out (COVID-19) for Week 14.
Keke Coutee (WR, HOU)
It's clear that Coutee has earned a more significant role in this offense with Fuller's suspension. Coutee caught 8-of-9 targets for 141 yards against the Colts last week. Expect Coutee to continue to soak up Randall Cobb's targets and then some, so consider him a decent WR4 in this game, especially in PPR formats.
Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI)
Since reclaiming the starting job, Trubisky has finished as QB6 and QB22, demonstrating his volatility as a fantasy QB. He has a great matchup this week against a Texans defense allowing 7.85 yards per attempt (28th) and 22.1 fantasy points per game (15th). The risk here is that the Bears feed Montgomery - Houston has allowed 413 pass attempts (T-14th).
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Matchups We Love:
Broncos RBs
Melvin Gordon has turned in strong production in two of his last three games, combining for 30 rush attempts, 215 yards, and two touchdowns in those games. Phillip Lindsay has taken a backseat in the last two weeks, totaling 23 carries for only 46 yards. Consider Gordon an RB2 and Lindsay an RB3/FLEX against a Panthers Defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Fant goes up against a Panthers defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. While his season has been slowed due to various injuries, this is still a very talented tight end with upside at a weak position. Perhaps this is the week where he can approach his ceiling.
Mike Davis (RB, CAR)
Christian McCaffrey will be out again, so Davis is an upside RB2 against a Broncos Defense that has really struggled against the run since losing d-lineman Mike Purcell in Week 8. During that span, they have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Davis has a good chance at strong production this week, especially if the Panthers are without D.J. Moore (ankle & COVID) and/or Curtis Samuel (COVID).
UPDATE: Curtis Samuel was officially activated from the COVID-19 list.
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
If Moore and Samuel don't play, Anderson should see a ton of targets as the clear-cut top option in this passing game. While the Broncos pass defense has limited wide receivers to 7.44 yards per target (4th), you have to love the potential volume with Anderson here. Fire him up as a WR2 this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR)
Bridgewater will be in tough against a Broncos defense limiting opposing passers to only 6.74 yards per attempt (5th). It'll be even more difficult to air it out if Moore and Samuel were to miss this game. Keep an eye on their status, but I would look elsewhere if I needed a streamer at QB.
Other Matchups:
Broncos WRs
One of the Broncos WR trio should be able to have a good game against a Panthers defense that has given up big games to opposing WR1s (Calvin Ridley, Justin Jefferson, Julio Jones, and Mike Evans). Jerry Jeudy has really struggled lately (42 yards in last three), while Tim Patrick (two TDs last game) has played well. K.J. Hamler also has some potential as a dart-throw. I would bet on Jeudy bouncing back here, but we still can't consider them as anything more than WR4/5s.
Player Notes:
D.J. Moore: Volatile WR3 if he plays due to tough matchup.
UPDATE: D.J. Moore is note expected to play in Week 14.
Curtis Samuel: Bad news for Mike Davis if Samuel plays.
UPDATE: Curtis Samuel was officially activated from the COVID-19 list.
Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals
Matchups We Love:
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Zeke is in a good spot in a likely positive game script against a Bengals team that has really struggled to move the ball since Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Bengals have allowed 4.98 YPC (30th) this season, so this is an exploitable matchup. I expect the Cowboys to lean on Zeke in this one - consider him an upside RB2.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
Schultz has been a solid streamer in recent weeks, ranking as TE13 since Week 8. He has a terrific matchup against a Bengals Defense that has allowed huge games to Mike Gesicki (9 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD) and Evan Engram (6 REC, 129 YDS) in the last two weeks. Schultz is a great stream this week.
Other Matchups:
Andy Dalton (QB, DAL)
It's the Andy Dalton revenge game! The Bengals just allowed Tua Tagovailoa, who had struggled in recent starts, to throw for a career-high 296 yards. Dalton is in play as a streamer, but I would temper your expectations in a potentially low-scoring game (43-point total) with the Cowboys likely to lean on the running game.
Cowboys WRs
Since their Week 10 bye, Amari Cooper (22.22% target share, WR15), Michael Gallup (22.22% target share, WR42), and CeeDee Lamb (20.37% target share, WR48) have had similar usage. Cooper is obviously the best option of the group. We can consider him a WR2 against a Bengals defense that ranks 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers. It's hard to trust Lamb and Gallup right now - I would consider them upside WR4s.
Giovani Bernard (RB, CIN)
Bernard has a great matchup against a Cowboys Defense that has been gashed on the ground, allowing 5.09 YPC (31st) on the season. The issue here is that: A) The Bengals offense is a disaster without Burrow, resulting in fewer scoring opportunities, and B) Bernard has carried the ball 37 times for 112 yards (3.03 YPC) in his last four games. It's hard to trust him as anything more than an RB3/FLEX play.
Bengals WRs
Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd both have great matchups against a Cowboys defense allowing 40.8 fantasy points per game (T-23rd) and 9.08 yards per target (28th), but it's tough to trust them as anything more than WR3s with Brandon Allen at quarterback. The good news is Allen should be able to move the ball more effectively against this defense.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Matchups We Love:
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Tannehill gets a great matchup against a Jaguars Defense allowing 8.17 yards per attempt (32nd) and 26.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (29th). The Jags have surprisingly been decent offensively with Mike Glennon at the helm (49 points in two starts), so there's a chance that this can be a close game, especially with how poorly the Titans Defense has played. This bodes well for Tannehill - he's a QB1 this week.
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Henry fell victim to game script last week, but he should bounce back with the Titans as 7.5-point favorites, facing a Jaguars defense that has allowed 301 rush attempts (31st) and 28.2 fantasy points per game to running backs (29th). The Jags are often playing from behind, resulting in high volume for opposing running backs. Henry is the overall RB1 for this week.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
Brown is in a great spot against a Jaguars defense that has allowed 9.17 yards per target (28th) and 41.5 fantasy points per game to wide receivers (27th). Brown has failed to find the endzone for only the third time this season. I would expect him to score here in a projected shootout with a 53-point total. Brown can take it to the house at any moment, so you need to fire him up as a WR1 in this cupcake matchup.
Corey Davis (WR, TEN)
Davis has been the model of consistency this season, coming off a ceiling game where he caught 11-of-12 targets for 182 yards and a touchdown. We need to consider him an every-week WR2 going forward. This week represents another chance for Davis to reach his ceiling.
James Robinson (RB, JAX)
Robinson has become one of the truly elite RB1s in fantasy football, currently ranked as RB6 in fantasy points per game. Since Glennon took over, Robinson has caught 11-of-12 targets for 61 yards in two games. Prior to that, Robinson had totaled nine targets in his previous three. Glennon is checking down to Robinson often and the rookie continues to receive bellcow usage. He's a Top-5 RB1 this week against a Titans defense allowing seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
D.J. Chark (WR, JAX)
Chark caught only 2-of-7 targets for 41 yards in his return to action last week, but he has an exploitable matchup here. The Titans defense is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Last week, they allowed Jarvis Landry (8 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD) and Rashard Higgins (6 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD) to have big games. I expect Chark to get loose deep in this projected shootout. He's an upside WR3 here.
Other Matchups:
Anthony Firkser (TE, TEN)
Firkser took on an expanded role with Jonnu Smith sidelined, catching 5-of-7 targets for 51 yards against the Colts. If Smith were out for another game, Firkser would have a chance at strong production against a Jaguars defense allowing 13.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends (T-22nd). He's firmly on the streaming radar in a game that should feature multiple scoring opportunities.
Player Notes:
Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN): Keep an eye on his status for this week. If he plays, you need to start him in a game where the Titans should be able to move the ball at will. Smith has high touchdown equity in a projected shootout.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes is absolutely rolling right now, so you have to love him and his two main pass-catchers each and every week. In his last five games, Mahomes has completed 157-of-221 passes (71%) for 1,916 yards (8.67 yards per attempt), 15 touchdowns and one interception. He's averaging 28.25 fantasy points per game during that span (QB1), which is 3.35 more points per game than Aaron Rodgers (QB2). The matchup doesn't matter here, especially with the high passing volume in this Chiefs offense. Mahomes is the overall QB1.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Like Mahomes, Hill is on an absurd streak right now, catching 43-of-63 targets for 640 yards and eight touchdowns in his last five games. He's averaging 31.7 fantasy points per game during that span (WR1), which is 5.4 more points per game than Davante Adams (WR2). The Dolphins Defense has allowed 8.29 yards per target (18th) and will have their hands full with Cheetah. He's a Top-2 WR each and every week.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce is having a historic season for a tight end, averaging 20 fantasy points per game, which would put him as WR3. He's totaled 100+ yards in four of his last five games. The Dolphins are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, but that doesn't matter against this historic Chiefs offense. Kelce is the overall TE1 each and every week.
Myles Gaskin (RB, MIA)
Gaskin saw a ton of volume in his return from injury, totaling 21 carries for 90 yards and catching both of his targets for 51 yards. We could see the Dolphins try to lean on the running game to keep the Chiefs off the field. The Chiefs are allowing 4.64 yards per carry (26th) and 276 rush attempts (23rd). Keep an eye out for Salvon Ahmed's injury update, as his return would put a dent in Gaskin's value. If Ahmed is out, Gaskin is an upside RB2.
UPDATE: Myles Gaskin has been placed on the COVID-19 list and is out for Week 14.
Matchups We Hate:
Chiefs RBs
What was once the most coveted landing spot for a running back is now one to avoid. The Chiefs are simply passing the ball at an exorbitant rate, while not really targeting their running backs too often. CEH has become one of the biggest busts in fantasy football in recent memory and Le'Veon Bell has been underwhelming as well. Consider both backs volatile FLEX options against a Dolphins defense allowing 22.6 fantasy points per game to running backs (13th).
Other Matchups:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
We could see a bump in passing volume for Tua against these Chiefs, which puts him firmly on the streaming radar for this week. We saw encouraging signs from Tagovailoa last week, setting career-highs in pass attempts (39) and passing yards (296). The Chiefs Defense has actually been stout against the pass, allowing 6.85 yards per attempt (7th), but Tua is a decent play because of the likely uptick in volume.
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
I'd love Parker this week if Ryan Fitzpatrick was under center, but with Tua we have to view Parker as an upside WR3. Parker was a huge disappointment last week, catching 4-of-8 targets for only 35 yards last week with Tua at the helm. The Dolphins WR1 should have a better week this time around, as the Dolphins will likely have to play catch up in the second half.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Gesicki had another ceiling game last week, catching 9-of-11 targets for 88 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. He has another chance at a good game this week against a Chiefs defense allowing 13.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends (21st). At the same time, we need to temper our expectations because Gesicki has shown a low floor at times this year.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchups We Love:
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Jefferson is having a phenomenal rookie season, currently ranked as WR9 in fantasy points per game. He takes on a pass-funnel Buccaneers Defense allowing 454 pass attempts (T-28th) and 8.5 yards per target (22nd). The Vikings will likely need to air it out to keep pace with a Bucs team coming off their bye, so Jefferson should have a chance at another big game. Jefferson is starting to supplant Thielen as the WR1 on the Vikings.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)
Thielen also has a chance at reaching his ceiling against this Bucs defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers since Week 9. Thielen has become a red-zone machine this season, scoring a touchdown in all but three games, including four two-touchdown performances. Although I prefer Jefferson, we still need to consider Thielen a WR1 for this game.
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Brady has had five duds this season, where he's finished as QB30, QB19, QB20, QB30, and QB19. However, take a look at the rest of his weekly production: QB1, QB2, QB3, QB5, QB9, QB9, and QB10. This week looks promising for Brady, as he takes on a Vikings Defense allowing 7.44 yards per attempt (T-24th) and 22.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (19th). This is a projected shootout with a 52-point total.
Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)
Jones continues to cede touches to Leonard Fournette in the passing game, but this sets up as a positive game script for the former USC RB with the Bucs as 6.5-point home favorites in a projected shootout. The Vikings are tied for 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Bruce Arians recently talked about how they need to give Jones more touches, so perhaps he comes to his senses and follows through on his word here. Even if Arians doesn't give Jones more passing down work, we still need to consider Jones an upside RB2.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Evans has turned his season around, ranking as WR16 in fantasy points per game since Week 8. He has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games. During this stretch, he leads the Bucs with a 20.69% target share and 28.07% air-yard share. He's also accounted for a team-high 47.83% of red-zone targets. Evans has established himself as the top option in this passing game and now faces a Vikings defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Other Matchups:
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
Godwin has become a low aDOT (8.2) slot receiver with Brady under center, putting a cap on his weekly ceiling. The good news is that he's averaged 8.3 targets in his last three games, so we can consider him a high-floor WR3 against this exploitable Vikings defense.
Antonio Brown (WR, TB)
After being peppered for 21 targets in his previous two games, Brown caught 2-of-3 targets for 11 yards against the Chiefs. Perhaps the bye week will allow him to become more comfortable in this Bucs offense. We can consider him a volatile WR3 in this one.
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Cousins is going to have to air it out against a Bucs defense allowing only 3.04 yards per carry (1st). This is a defense that has really struggled against the pass lately, giving up the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks since Week 9. Cousins is in play as a streamer, but he's a lukewarm option because I do believe that we see a bit of improvement from the Bucs defense coming off their bye.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
Cook is an elite RB1 every week, but he's in tough here against the Bucs pass-funnel defense that really does a great job at stopping the run. I expect that Cook will need to do most of his damage in the passing game - he has caught 19-of-22 targets in his last four games. Cook remains a strong play like always, but I don't love the matchup here.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
Gronk is coming off a huge game against the Chiefs where he caught 6-of-7 targets for 106 yards. He'll now be in a good spot in a game that figures to be high-scoring with several scoring opportunities. Gronk is a good bet to find the endzone this week against a Vikings defense allowing 12.3 fantasy points per game to tight ends (15th), but we have to consider him a lukewarm play because of the plethora of options in this offense.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
Matchups We Love:
Kenyan Drake (RB, ARZ)
Since returning from injury, Drake has averaged 14.75 carries and 3.25 targets per game. He's scored four touchdowns and ranks as RB15 in fantasy points per game during that span. The Giants are allowing 24.9 fantasy points per game to running backs (23rd). We can consider Drake a volume-based RB2 with touchdown upside in what projects to be a close game.
Wayne Gallman (RB, NYG)
Gallman continues to roll to the surprise of many, ranking as RB10 in fantasy points per game since Week 7. He's also starting to see more volume, averaging 19.3 carries per game in his last three. The Cardinals are allowing 23.3 fantasy points per game to running backs (18th), so Gallman has a good chance to continue this hot streak. Consider him an RB2 with upside.
Matchups We Hate:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARZ)
The Giants Defense is playing very well lately, coming off an upset win against the Seahawks where they limited Russell Wilson to a QB21 finish. Kyler Murray has combined for 61 yards on 15 carries with zero touchdowns in his last three games. During that span, he's ranked as QB23 in fantasy points per game. While it's tough to bench Kyler because of his upside, we need to consider him as a low-end QB1 this week.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARZ)
Kirk has really slowed down as of late, combining for 21 targets, 12 receptions, and 98 yards in his last four games. The Giants are allowing 8.01 yards per target (12th) and 36 fantasy points per game to wide receivers (14th). You can leave Kirk on your bench as a volatile WR4/5.
Darius Slayton (WR, NYG)
Slayton has really struggled in recent weeks, ranking as WR109 in fantasy points per game since Week 7. He's not someone I'd consider starting right now until he starts to at least show some semblance of production. Perhaps Daniel Jones' return will help him get back on track.
Other Matchups:
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARZ)
Hopkins has totaled 55 yards or less in four of his last five games. Giants CB James Bradberry (76.6 PFF Coverage Grade) has been one of the better corners in the NFL this season. It's time that we start viewing Hopkins as more of a WR2 until Murray starts to get back on track.
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
Shepard has established himself as the preferred WR for the Giants, but he still has a limited ceiling. While he's averaging 7.6 targets per game since returning from injury, he's eclipsed 70 yards only once during that span. Consider Shepard a floor play at WR4 against the Cardinals.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Engram is one of the most volatile tight ends in the league, but he still ranks 5th among tight ends with a 22.22% target share. The Cardinals have been stout against tight ends, allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position this season, but Engram is the top option in this Giants passing game.
Matchups Analysis - 4:05/4:25 PM ET Games
New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks
Matchups We Love:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
After a letdown game against the Giants, Russ is in a smash spot against a Jets Defense allowing 7.90 yards per attempt (29th) and 27.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (30th). This is a team that just allowed a QB1 finish to Derek Carr. Fire up Russ in this get-right spot as a Top-3 fantasy QB this week.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
Metcalf gets a dream matchup against a Jets defense that has been shredded by the top receiving option on the opposing team. Last week, they allowed Darren Waller to explode for 13 receptions, 200 yards and two touchdowns. Metcalf looks like an elite WR1 this week and we need to consider him a Top-3 option.
Matchups We Hate:
Jets RBs
Whether it's Frank Gore, Ty Johnson, or Josh Adams carrying the load, this is a situation to avoid in a negative game script against a Seahawks Defense allowing 3.88 YPC (10th). Johnson or Adams would be appealing if Gore misses this game, but he got in a limited practice on Wednesday. Avoid this situation.
Other Matchups:
Chris Carson (RB, SEA)
Carson is in a terrific game script with the Seahawks as 13-point home favorites. Since returning from injury, he's combined for 105 yards on 21 carries as well as five receptions for 63 yards. He's added one rushing and one receiving touchdown. The issue here is that he's still not 100 percent, so we can expect to see a reduced workload going forward - he's averaged 13 touches per game since returning to the lineup. For that reason, we need to consider him an upside RB2.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Since his blow-up game on Sunday Night Football against the Cardinals in Week 7, Lockett has averaged 11 fantasy points per game, which ranks as WR51. Lockett has been out-targeted 54-43 by Metcalf during that stretch, so it's starting to look like the veteran has become the second option in this passing game. While he remains a WR2 in this strong matchup, I don't love him as a play due to his volatility.
Jamison Crowder (WR, NYJ)
Crowder got back on track against the Raiders last week, catching 5-of-7 targets for 47 yards and two touchdowns. It's clear that he's Sam Darnold's preferred option in this offense, especially in the red-zone. While the matchup looks good on paper, the Seahawks defense has been much improved, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers since Week 10, so temper your expectations.
Breshad Perriman (WR, NYJ)
Perriman would see a boost in value as the lone deep threat if Denzel Mims (personal) were to miss this game. The Jets will have to air it out in this game, so we could see an uptick in volume for Perriman here. I would consider him an upside WR4 in this matchup.
Player Notes:
Denzel Mims (WR, NYJ): If he plays, he would be my favorite WR in this offense.
UPDATE: Denzel Mims has officially been ruled out.
Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders
Matchups We Love:
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
In his last two games, Taylor has posted 15.4 points (RB12) and 22.5 points (RB5). It really does appear as if the game is slowing down for him and he's finding his groove. He now takes on a Raiders defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. The Colts would be wise to lean on their rookie in a game that projects to be close with the Colts as 3-point favorites.
Matchups We Hate:
Nyheim Hines (RB, IND)
Hines carried the ball six times for 10 yards and a touchdown and added three receptions for 22 yards last week. He was out-touched 16-to-9 by Taylor, so it finally looks like the coaching staff is trusting their rookie. For that reason, I don't think you can count on HInes for the fantasy playoffs, even as a FLEX play.
Other Matchups:
Philip Rivers (QB, IND)
Rivers is in play as a streamer against a Raiders defense allowing 23.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (22nd) in a projected shootout with a 51.5-point total. The Colts Defense has allowed 96 points in the last three games, which bodes well for Rivers because it will force him to have to air it out.
Colts WRs
T.Y. Hilton has come alive in the last two weeks, combining for 12 receptions, 191 yards and two touchdowns. He now takes on a Raiders defense allowing 8.44 yards per target to wide receivers (21st). Hilton is the most reliable choice of the group, so we can consider him an upside WR4. Michael Pittman Jr. has slowed down during Hilton's hot stretch, totaling seven receptions for 74 yards. The talent is obvious though, so I think he has more upside than Hilton.
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
In the last three weeks, the Colts defense has allowed 25.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (28th) and 8.91 yards per attempt (31st). This puts Carr in play as a streamer for the third consecutive week. The risk here is that the Raiders try to lean on the running game a bit more, especially if Josh Jacobs plays.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
The Raiders expect Jacobs to return to the lineup here, despite his absence at Wednesday's practice. If he plays, you can fire him up as an upside RB2 in this potential shootout. The Colts have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs during this three-game stretch of poor performance. The only reason why Jacobs is not in the love list is because of his injury status. Keep an eye out.
UPDATE: Josh Jacobs is expected to return in Week 14.
Raiders WRs
Henry Ruggs has some DFS tournament appeal here, as he's combined for six receptions, 140 yards, and a touchdown in his last two games. You can consider him an upside WR4/WR5 in this game. I have no interest in Nelson Agholor or Hunter Renfrow as anything more than WR5s because I don't think that they have the same kind of upside as Ruggs. The Colts defense ranks 23rd in fantasy points per game to wide receivers in the last three games.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
Waller demonstrated why he has the most upside at tight end in the league outside of Travis Kelce and George Kittle last week, catching 13-of-17 targets for 200 yards and two touchdowns. He's the TE2 each and every week, but we could see more of his floor in this game because you have to figure that the Colts key on him after that blowup performance. Even in this cold stretch, the Colts defense has limited tight ends to 10.5 fantasy points per game (11th).
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Matchups We Love:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Rodgers is a Top-3 QB this week on the road as 8-point favorites in a game with a 55-point total. The Lions have allowed 7.98 yards per attempt (30th) and 23.6 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (23rd). Rodgers has been the model of consistency this season, ranking as a Top-10 quarterback in 10 of 12 games, including six Top-5 finishes. If the Lions can keep pace in this game, we can expect massive production from Rodgers.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Jones had a big day last week thanks to a 77-yard touchdown run towards the end of the game. He now has an opportunity to keep it going against one of the worst run defenses in football. The Lions have allowed 4.60 YPC (25th) as well as the most fantasy points per game to running backs. He'll have a great opportunity to find the endzone once again this week. Fire up Jones as a Top-5 RB1.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Adams is having a historic season, averaging 26.3 fantasy points per game (WR1), which is 3.4 points more than Tyreek Hill (WR2). Last time these two teams met, Adams was limited to three receptions for 36 yards because he had to leave the game early due to injury. He should have no problem getting loose this week, as the Lions have allowed 9.24 yards per target (30th) to wide receivers.
Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)
Stafford had a huge game against the Bears last week, throwing for 402 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, finishing as QAB5. It looks as if this offense will be much-improved following Matt Patricia's firing. The Packers are tough against the pass, tied for the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but the Lions will likely have to air it out to keep pace this week. Consider Stafford a Top-12 option in this game.
Marvin Jones (WR, DET)
Jones broke out for eight receptions, 116 yards, and a touchdown against the Bears. He should continue to remain an upside WR3 if Golladay remains out of the lineup. The issue here is that he could have to deal with Packers CB Jaire Alexander (83.1 PFF Coverage Grade). At the same time, this is will likely be a high-scoring game, so we need to bet on volume and game script over WR/CB matchup here. Start Jones with confidence if Golladay is out.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Hockenson caught 7-of-9 targets for 84 yards last week, making it the second game in a row where he eclipsed 80 yards. That's elite production from the tight end position. I expect the Lions to air it out this week, so we can expect Hockenson to continue to be reliable, especially if Kenny Golladay is forced to miss another game. We can safely pencil in Hock as a Top-5 TE.
Other Matchups:
Allen Lazard (WR, GB)
This has a chance to be Lazard's first big game since returning from injury. He's caught 9-of-14 targets for 91 yards and a touchdown in three games since returning to the lineup. He's a solid option if you're looking to game-stack the Packers and Lions in DFS. Lazard is an upside WR4 this week.
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
Tonyan has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games, making him a solid option at tight end. The issue here is that he's posted five targets or less in seven of his last eight games, which means that he's touchdown-dependent. While I would still consider him a TE1 in this shootout, I'm only making him a lukewarm play for this reason.
Adrian Peterson (RB, DET)
Peterson has a terrific matchup against a Packers Defense allowing 28.5 fantasy points per game to running backs (25th). D'Andre Swift has returned to practice, but his status remains unclear for this game. If Swift were to miss this one, you can throw in Peterson as a touchdown-dependent FLEX.
Player Notes:
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET): Likely to see reduced workload if he plays, consider him an upside RB2.
UPDATE: D'Andre Swift is expected to return in Week 14.
Kenny Golladay (WR, DET): Still has not returned to practice, status looks shaky for this week.
UPDATE: Kenny Golladay has officially been ruled out.
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
Matchups We Love:
Michael Thomas (WR, NO)
The Eagles have given up a ton of production to opposing WR1s in the last two weeks: Davante Adams (10 REC, 121 YDS, 2 TD) and D.K. Metcalf (10 REC, 177 YDS) both had huge games. Thomas has posted a 39.19% target share since Taysom Hill replaced the injured Drew Brees as the starting QB. Even though Hill is averaging only 25.3 pass attempts per game, we still have to fire up Thomas as a WR1 here.
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
Despite the tough matchup with the Saints allowing 3.14 YPC (1st) and 11 fantasy points per game to running backs (1st) since Week 9, I really like Sanders this week. We can expect the Eagles to lean heavily on the running game with Jalen Hurts under center. Hurts' rushing ability will also open up lanes for Sanders. I expect Doug Pederson to wake up and feed his best offensive player this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Latavius Murray (RB, NO)
Murray only had seven touches last week. He has become a gamescript-dependent running back who excels when the Saints win by multiple scores. While the Saints are 7-point favorites here, I expect the Eagles to keep this game close with their new starting quarterback likely giving the team a boost. I wouldn't consider Murray anything more than a desperation FLEX this week.
Jared Cook (TE, NO)
The Saints are now a low-volume offense, so it's tough to rely on any pass-catcher besides Michael Thomas as long as Hill remains the starter. Cook has combined for six receptions, 64 yards and one touchdown in his last five games. I'd avoid Cook even with how weak tight end has been this season.
Eagles WRs
Since Week 9, the Saints are allowing only 7.27 yards per target (7th) and 29.6 fantasy points per game to wide receivers (5th). We can expect less volume with Jalen Hurts as the starter, as the Eagles are likely to go run-heavy with their new scrambling quarterback. It's tough to rely on Jalen Reagor or Travis Fulgham in this situation.
Other Matchups:
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara bounced back nicely against the Falcons, finishing as RB9, but he still only totaled three targets. The Eagles are stout on the ground, allowing only 3.68 YPC (4th). Kamara has to be considered an upside RB2 with Hill under center with such a significant decrease in receiving volume.
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Hurts gets a tough test in his first career start against a Saints Defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks since Week 9. Hurts has rushing upside, so that keeps him in play as a potential desperation streamer here. I would also consider him in DFS tournaments because of his cheap price.
Eagles TEs
I think that one of Zach Ertz or Dallas Goedert will turn in strong TE1 production this week, as they'll likely act as a safety valve for rookie Hurts in his first start against a tough defense. While Goedert has more upside, I would definitely be fine with taking a chance on Ertz having a good game, especially in DFS tournaments.
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers
Matchups We Hate:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
We simply cannot trust Ryan right now - check out his last three weekly finishes: QB26, QB17, and QB26. His floor is low and it's not like his ceiling is high, so he's not worth the risk. The Chargers are allowing 23.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (23rd), but they limited Josh Allen to 157 yards on 6.5 yards per attempt two weeks ago, so there's a chance that this is an improved unit. Avoid Ryan this week.
Todd Gurley (RB, ATL)
Gurley saw a reduced workload in his return from injury last week, totaling eight carries for 16 yards with one reception for four yards. This is not a player I'd recommend using during the fantasy playoffs. He's a touchdown-dependent, desperation FLEX against a Chargers Defense allowing 24.6 fantasy points per game to running backs (22nd).
Hayden Hurst (TE, ATL)
Hurst has returned to limited practice, but it's hard to trust him right now because he's banged-up with an ankle injury. The Chargers defense has improved since Joey Bosa returned to the lineup, so it's tough to trust Hurst while he's slowed down by an ankle injury, playing for an unreliable Falcons offense.
Other Matchups:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Herbert laid his first egg in the NFL, getting shut out at home to the Patriots and finishing as QB30. This comes a week after he finished as QB14 against the Bills. There's definitely a chance that the promising young QB is starting to hit the proverbial "rookie wall." The Falcons Defense has improved since their Week 10 bye, allowing 7.12 yards per attempt (19th) compared to 8.29 yards per attempt (30th) in previous weeks. This means that we should temper our expectations for Herbert here.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Ekeler has out-targeted Allen 25-to-21 since returning to the lineup. He should be able to rack up receptions against this Falcons defense in a potential bounce-back game. While the Falcons have been stout against the run, allowing 3.73 YPC (5th), that should not be an issue because Ekeler does his damage in the passing game. Consider Ekeler a Top-10 RB for Week 14.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Since Ekeler's return to the lineup, Allen has caught 9-of-21 targets for 88 yards and a touchdown. Since their bye week, the Falcons have limited wide receivers to 8.60 yards per target, a significant improvement from 9.54 yards per target allowed prior to the bye. While this is only a three-game sample, it's clear that the unit has gotten better under Raheem Morris. When you also consider Allen's decreased volume, you have to consider him more of a low-end WR1 than the elite one we saw in Ekeler's absence.
Hunter Henry (TE, LAC)
Henry has a great opportunity for a ceiling game against a Falcons defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. The issue here is that Henry's a bit touchdown-dependent, eclipsing 50 yards only once in his last nine games. Henry is a Top-10 option this week, but consider him a lukewarm play.
Julio Jones (WR, ATL)
Julio returned to the lineup and picked up right where he left off, catching 6-of-10 targets for 94 yards. The Chargers have allowed 8.31 yards per target (19th), but only 32.3 fantasy points per game to wide receivers (4th). This defense has improved in the last two weeks - they limited Stefon Diggs to seven receptions and 39 yards in Buffalo. The Falcons offense has not been as explosive this season. Consider Julio a WR1, but temper your expectations.
UPDATE: Julio Jones has been officially ruled out for this week.
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)
Ridley has caught 16-of-28 targets for 248 yards and a touchdown in three games since returning from injury. I expect one, but not both of the Falcons wide receivers to put up WR1 production against the Chargers, so we can consider Ridley a low-end WR1 in a matchup that is tougher than it looks.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Williams is nothing more than a boom-or-bust WR4 right now, especially since Herbert is not firing on all cylinders right now. It's hard to trust him in the do-or-die matchup in the fantasy playoffs. The Falcons defense has gotten better, so we can consider Williams a lukewarm play.
Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers
Matchups We Love:
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
McLaurin is coming off a dud against the Steelers, catching 2-of-6 targets for only 14 yards. He's in a terrific bounce-back spot against a 49ers Defense that just allowed Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley to combine for 19 receptions, 222 yards, and a touchdown. Expect Washington to lean on McLaurin more this week, especially after losing rookie running back Antonio Gibson to turf toe.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)
Thomas has emerged as a solid TE1 during this hot stretch where he's put up TE4 production since Week 6. The 49ers defense looked awful against the Bills last week, allowing 9.38 yards per attempt. We can expect Alex Smith to have some success through the air in this game, so Thomas can be trusted as a TE1.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Aiyuk has become the forgotten man in this stacked wide receiver class, but he's a stud in his own right. Since Week 3, Aiyuk is ranked as WR15 in fantasy points per game. During their hot streak, Washington's defense has been a bit vulnerable to wide receivers, ranking as 16th in fantasy points allowed per game. Aiyuk has emerged as the top option in this passing game, so you can play him as an WR2.
Matchups We Hate:
49ers RBs
Kyle Shanahan continues to be a major headache for fantasy players, as he surprisingly split carries with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson last week. Add in Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman and you have a disaster. It's just so tough to decipher this backfield that it has become a situation to avoid. The matchup isn't favorable either, as Washington has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs since Week 7.
Other Matchups:
Washington RBs
J.D. McKissic could see a minor bump in rushing volume with Gibson on the shelf, but we also have to account for Peyton Barber stealing some of the work. I expect Washington to have more success with downfield passes in this one, so that means less checkdowns for McKissic. Consider him a lukewarm play as a FLEX in PPR formats. I would consider Barber a touchdown-dependent desperation FLEX.
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
Samuel has caught 17-of-22 targets for 206 yards since returning from injury, but he's currently banged up with a foot injury that caused him to miss Wednesday's practice. As of now, we expect him to play, but you have to downgrade him to more of an upside WR3 given the injury. If Samuel misses the game, Aiyuk could approach WR1 territory. With Samuel, you don't have to worry about the matchup too much because of his low aDOT and usage in the running game.
Jordan Reed (TE, SF)
It's the Jordan Reed revenge game! Reed has caught 10-of-16 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown in his last three games, putting firmly in play as a TE streamer. He would absolutely get a bump in value if Samuel were forced to miss this game.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Matchups We Love:
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Johnson has been the model of consistency this season, totaling double-digit targets in five consecutive games. The Bills Defense is allowing the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, but we have to ride with Diontae here because of his absurd volume. He's firmly entrenched as the WR1 for the Steelers, so consider him a high-end WR2 in this game.
James Conner (RB, PIT)
Conner has been activated off the COVID reserve list and I expect him to have a strong game against a Bills defense allowing 24.2 fantasy points per game to running backs (20th). As a road game in a tough environment against an exploitable run defense, this profiles as a game for the Steelers to get their running game going. I love Conner as a high-upside RB2 in this one.
Eric Ebron (TE, PIT)
Ebron is a solid play at tight end because he's seeing a ton of volume, totaling 22 targets in his last two games. The Bills are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position, so we can consider Ebron a Top-10 tight end this week.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Like Johnson, Diggs is getting such high volume that we need to consider him a top WR play each and every week. Diggs has totaled at least nine targets in seven of his last eight games. The Steelers have allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, but Diggs has shown such a high-floor this season that we need to consider him matchup-proof.
Matchups We Hate:
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)
Roethlisberger is maintaining fantasy value simply due to volume, averaging 40.3 pass attempts per game, but only 6.4 yards per attempt. We could see the Steelers try to get the running game going in a December road game in Buffalo. The Bills defense has shown some improvement since their Week 11 bye, allowing 6.95 yards per attempt to Justin Herbert and Nick Mullens in the last two games. Avoid Big Ben this week.
Bills RBs
Devin Singletary out-touched Zack Moss 21-to-4 last week, as the rookie was benched for an early fumble. It's unclear whether that type of disparity in usage will continue this week. It's tough to trust this running game against a defense allowing only 3.84 YPC (7th) this season.
Other Matchups:
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT)
JuJu continues to be a WR3 with limited upside as the low-aDOT slot receiver in this offense. In his last three games, he's caught 19-of-24 targets for 84 yards, good for only 4.4 yards per reception. He basically needs to catch a ton of passes to be relevant. While the high volume raises his floor, I'd consider JuJu a lukewarm play.
Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)
Claypool has slowed down in the last two weeks, catching 8-of-13 passes for 90 yards. Big Ben has become a checkdown quarterback, which limits Claypool's weekly upside. With James Conner back in the fold and the Steelers likely trying to establish the run game, I'd consider Claypool a volatile WR3 in this game.
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
The Steelers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, so this is a tough matchup for Allen. Having said that, we still need to consider him a lukewarm play because of his rushing upside. Allen remains a Top-12 option at quarterback despite having to face the Steelers.
Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
Beasley has eclipsed 100 yards in three of his last six games, as he continues to enjoy a career year. However, in the other three games, he failed to post more than 40 yards, so his floor is not as high as many believe. I think Stefon Diggs will have a better game this week, so I'd consider Beasley more of a WR4 in this one against this tough Steelers Defense.
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Click here to read about the Monday Night Football matchups between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns.
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