RADIO
Hi, y'all! Fourteen weeks of NFL action are in the books and it's time for the fantasy playoffs! Welcome to our Week 15 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. Each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
Frank Ammirante be covering the Saturday slate and early Sunday slate for this week, and Justin Carter will take you home with his analysis of the remaining games including the late afternoon and evening. You can also read about the Monday Night Football matchups as well.
If you have any additional lineup questions, follow us on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and @juscarts, and feel free to ask away. Let's help guide you to that Week 15 victory!
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Matchups Analysis - Saturday Games
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Allen is in a smash spot against a Broncos Defense that will be missing FIVE of its corners on Saturday, which is terrible timing against a Bills offense averaging 36.2 pass attempts and 280.1 passing yards per game. The Bills have a 28.25-point implied total in this game. With their running game virtually non-existent, we can expect Allen to have a big game here. Fire him up as a Top-5 QB against the Broncos.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Diggs has been one of the most consistent wide revceivers in football this season, with five 100-yard games and four with 10 receptions. Currently WR3 in PPR points per game, Diggs should have no issues getting loose against this depleted Broncos secondary. He's an elite WR1 this week and looks like a must-stack with Allen if you're playing the Saturday DFS slate.
Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
Beasley should be able to find the soft spots in Vic Fangio's zone-heavy defensive scheme. Keep an eye on John Brown's status because if he were to play, Beasley's target share will be impacted. We can consider Beasley a solid WR3 in this exploitable matchup.
UPDATE: John Brown has officially been ruled out.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Noah Fant should be good to go after missing most of last week's game with an illness. This is good news because the Bills have really struggled against tight ends, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position this season. Prior to last week, Fant was starting to find his groove, totaling 50+ yards in two of his previous three games. Fire him up as a TE1 this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Bills RBs
This is a good matchup, as the Broncos have really struggled to stop the run since defensive lineman Mike Purcell was lost for the season. However, Zack Moss and Devin Singletary continue to split carries in a pass-heavy offense with a quarterback who likes to throw it downfield. I wouldn't rely on them in a must-win playoff matchup. Consider both as volatile RB3/FLEX options.
Drew Lock (QB, DEN)
Lock will have to air it out to play catch-up against the Bills, but this defense has improved in recent weeks. Since their Week 11 bye week, the Bills are allowing only 6.4 yards per attempt to opposing passers. While Lock looked terrific last week against the Panthers, it's hard to rely on him as a streamer here.
Broncos WRs
It's tough to like any of the Broncos wide receivers because they're tough to project on any given week. Since this is a low-volume passing offense, it's tough for more than one of the receivers to provide adequate production. Tim Patrick has three touchdowns in his last two games, but that came with only nine targets. KJ Hamler caught 2-of-3 targets for 86 yards and two touchdowns last week, but combined for only 51 yards in his previous two. Jerry Jeudy is the best of the bunch, but he's fallen off the map recently with only three receptions for 47 yards in his last three games. You simply can't rely on this group right now.
Other Matchups:
Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF)
Davis has really come on of late, scoring a touchdown in four of his last five games. He has a great opportunity to keep the good times rolling against a depleted Broncos secondary, but if John Brown is in the lineup, Davis wouldn't be anything more than a dart-throw in DFS tournaments.
Broncos RBs
Melvin Gordon (32 touches, 199 total yards) has really outproduced Phillip Lindsay (27 touches, 57 yards) in the last two weeks. I expect Gordon to see more of the workload, especially with Linday currently limited with a hip injury. The Bills are allowing 23 fantasy points per game (25th) to running backs, so we can consider Gordon a FLEX play and Lindsay more of an RB4.
Player Notes:
John Brown (WR, BUF): Brown was designated to return from injured reserve. If he plays, he's an upside WR4.
UPDATE: John Brown has officially been ruled out.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Matchups We Love:
Mike Davis (RB, CAR)
Davis got things back on track last week, turning 16 touches into 93 total yards and two touchdowns. It was encouraging to see him rack up six targets for the second consecutive game. Davis now takes on a Packers Defense that has been one of the worst against the run, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. The Panthers are 8.5-point underdogs in a projected shootout with a 52-point total, so perhaps we see some checkdowns to Davis as the team plays catch-up. Davis is an upside RB2 this week.
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Rodgers just continues to deliver, turning in a QB3 performance against the Lions last week. The Packers have an implied total of 30.25 points this week, so we can expect this MVP candidate and future Hall-of-Famer to continue to provide elite production at the quarterback position. The Panthers just got shredded by Drew Lock for 280 yards (10.4 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns. Rodgers is a Top-3 QB1 once again.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Adams continued his historic season last week, catching 7-of-10 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown. Adams has now scored 12 touchdowns in his last eight games. We can expect this absurd stretch to continue against a Panthers Defense allowing 36.9 fantasy points per game to wide receivers (T-18th) in a projected shootout. Adams is the overall WR1 each and every week.
Other Matchups:
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR)
Bridgewater came off the bye to turn in a QB10 performance against a depleted Broncos defense. He now takes on a Packers defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. However, this is likely to be a shootout with the Panthers playing catch-up, so the game script matters more than the matchup. While I don't love him this week, I do think he's firmly in play as a potential streamer.
Panthers WRs
Robby Anderson (12 TGT, 8 REC, 84 YDS) and Curtis Samuel (9 TGT, 7 REC, 68 YDS) both had solid games last week, but they're likely to a decreased target share with D.J. Moore's return to the lineup. They'll also have to contend with a Packers defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Anderson is a high-floor WR2 because of his target share, while Moore is more of a volatile WR2/3 option and Samuel is an upside WR3/4. Each of them are lukewarm options because of the projected game script.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Jones disappointed in a smash spot, totaling only 17 touches for 75 yards. The Packers continue to use Jamaal Williams (34 touches in last three games) which really caps Jones' upside. The Panthers are allowing 25.4 fantasy points per game to running backs (25th), but we need to downgrade Jones to more of an upside RB2 while he gets this kind of limited usage in this pass-heavy offense.
Packers WRs
Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are in play as potential pivot plays in DFS, but it's hard to rely on them in the fantasy playoffs. MVS went off for six receptions, 85 yards, and a touchdown, but put up only 55 yards in his previous two games combined. I still think that we're due for a breakout game from Lazard, so he's my preferred option here. Consider both as dart throws right now.
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
Tonyan has scored a touchdown in four consecutive games, as he continues to reap the benefits as a red-zone threat in one of the best offenses in the NFL. Tonyan is one of the few tight ends who gets targeted downfield, so he remains in play as a Top-10 option each week. The risk here is that he's been targeted five times or less in his last six games, but his touchdown upside keeps him in play in this projected shootout.
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Matchups We Love:
Bucs WRs
Chris Godwin (19.50% target share, 8.4 aDOT), Mike Evans (17.77% target share, 11.9 aDOT), and Antonio Brown (18.38% target share, 9.6 aDOT) have really cut into each other's value. Godwin is the best of the bunch, but he's become a low-aDOT slot receiver under Tom Brady. Evans has been the most consistent lately, but he's touchdown-dependent. We're still waiting for Brown's breakout game with Brady. The good news is that they have an exploitable matchup against a Falcons Defense allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. At least one of these receivers should provide upside WR2 production this week, the question is who? My money is on Godwin.
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)
It's starting to seem like Julio Jones will be shut down for the season. Even if he isn't, his status remains unclear for this week, making Ridley an elite WR1. Last week, he caught 8-of-12 targets for 124 yards and a touchdown. This week, he takes on a pass-funnel Bucs defense that really shuts down the running game and forces opponents to air it out. Expect Matt Ryan to pepper Ridley with targets. Consider him an elite WR1 in this matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
Ronald Jones will be out of the lineup for this one, but don't fall into this trap. Fournette was a healthy scratch last week, so there's a decent chance that he splits time with LeSean McCoy. The Falcons have also been tough on running backs, allowing only 3.76 yards per carry (5th). Fournette is in play as a FLEX, but it's unclear how the workload will be divided, so I'd avoid him in this matchup.
Todd Gurley (RB, ATL)
Gurley might be the easiest bench of the week given how poorly he's played and how tough this Bucs run defense is. If you start him, you're praying that he plods his way into the endzone. I wouldn't hold my breath on that happening given how this offense has struggled without Julio and how inefficient Gurley has been. Gurley's workload is fading (eight touches last week) - leave him on your bench.
Hayden Hurst (TE, ATL)
Hurst has really struggled lately, combining for six receptions and 64 yards in his last four games. We simply cannot trust him right now, especially against a Bucs defense that should be able to pressure Matt Ryan. The Bucs rank 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
Other Matchups:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Brady has a strong matchup on paper, but the Falcons defense has been much better since their bye week in Week 11. They rank 19th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks during that span compared to 32nd prior to the bye. Last week, this defense limited Justin Herbert to only 5.5 yards per attempt. Consider Brady a low-end QB1 in this matchup.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
Gronk is in a great spot against a Falcons defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to tight ends, but temper your expectations. This defense has limited Hunter Henry (6 REC, 41 YDS) and Darren Waller (4 REC, 23 YDS) in recent weeks. Consider Gronk a low-end TE1 for this matchup.
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Ryan continues to have a disappointing year, ranking as QB23 in fantasy points per game. He continues to really struggle without Julio in the lineup. However, he's in play as a streamer this week against a Bucs defense that should force the Falcons to air it out in this matchup.
Player Notes:
Julio Jones (WR, ATL): Start Julio if he plays, but temper your expectations and consider him an upside WR2.
UPDATE: Julio Jones is officially ruled out for this week.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
Matchups We Love:
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Aiyuk has been a certified stud as a rookie, totaling 90+ yards in four of his last five games. With Deebo Samuel now out for the season, Aiyuk should see massive volume as the clear-cut top option in this 49ers offense. The Cowboys are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Consider Aiyuk an upside WR2 in this smash spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Zeke laid an egg in a smash spot against the Bengals last week, putting up 59 total yards on 14 touches. The 49ers Defense has been stout against the run, allowing 20.8 fantasy points per game to running backs (6th). While the game script sets up nicely for Zeke in this projected close game, it's really tough to trust him right now. Consider him a low-floor RB2 in this matchup.
UPDATE: Ezekiel Elliott has been ruled out for this week. Tony Pollard will be the lead back.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
The Niners have been terrific against tight ends this season, allowing the fewest points to the position. Last week, they limited a red-hot Logan Thomas to six receptions and 43 yards. Schultz disappointed in a plus matchup against the Bengals, putting up three receptions for 34 yards. I'd look elsewhere if I were streaming a tight end this week.
Other Matchups:
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, SF)
It's starting to look like Raheem Mostert won't be able to play in this game, which puts Wilson on the RB2 radar against a Cowboys Defense allowing 23.2 fantasy points per game to running backs (17th). I would temper your expectations because we have seen how unpredictable Kyle Shanahan can be with his running back usage. It wasn't too long ago that Jerick McKinnon was getting the lion share of touches and Wilson was parked on the bench. Consider Wilson a lukewarm play because of this uncertainty.
UPDATE: Raheem Mostert is officially off the injury report and will play this week.
Jordan Reed (TE, SF)
Reed has totaled 21 targets in his last four games, a number that figures to increase with the injury to Deebo. The Cowboys have allowed 12.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends (T-14th), but Reed is one of the few options in this passing game, so he's firmly on the streaming radar.
Cowboys WRs
Amari Cooper is the best option in this passing game, totaling six or more targets in four of his last five games. He has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games. Consider him an upside WR3 in a tough matchup against a 49ers defense allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. At this point, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup are dart-throw WR4s in this low-upside offense with Andy Dalton at the helm. Leave them on your bench.
Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans
Matchups We Love:
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
Swift is in a great spot as a talented pass-catcher with Chase Daniel under center because this is a quarterback who loves to check it down to his running back. In his two starts with the Bears last year, Daniel targeted Tarik Cohen 12 times. Expect Swift to set a new season-high in targets (5) this week in a positive game script where the Lions project to be playing from behind. Consider him an upside RB2.
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Henry is in yet another smash spot against a Lions Defense allowing the most fantasy points to running backs, in a game where the Titans are favored by 11 points with 31.25-point implied total. Henry has a great chance to have another massive week and we need to consider him the overall RB1 for this matchup.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
I would expect the Titans to have less passing volume in this projected blowout, but Brown has the ability to take it to the house on any play. The Lions defense is allowing 38.9 fantasy points per game to wide receivers (21st), so this is an exploitable matchup for Brown to make some noise. Consider him a WR1 like we do every week.
Other Matchups:
Marvin Jones (WR, DET)
Jones gets a downgrade with Daniel at quarterback because of his checkdown tendencies, but the Titans have a porous defense, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. This keeps Jones in play on the WR3/4 fringe in a game where we're likely to see the Lions airing it out to keep pace with the Titans.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Hockenson has totaled 35 targets in his last four games, a high volume that should continue this week as Kenny Golladay likely remains out of the lineup. With this kind of usage, Hockenson is a high-end TE1 in the 5-7 range on an every-week basis. Consider him a lukewarm play in a game where the Lions might struggle to score points.
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Tannehill is in a great spot against a Lions defense allowing 23.1 fantasy points per game (18th), but we need to temper our expectations because the volume may not be there this week with King Henry running all over this defense. Consider Tannehill a low-end QB1 in this matchup.
Corey Davis (WR, TEN)
Davis has a chance to hit his ceiling in this one, but I prefer Brown because of his superior playmaking ability. I don't think that there will be enough volume for two Titans wide receivers to provide strong production, so I'm considering Davis a lukewarm play. Consider him a WR3 for this matchup.
Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN)
Jonnu's early-season dominance feels like a distant memory with how much he's struggled lately. He's failed to eclipse 30 yards in six of his last seven games. However, there should be multiple scoring opportunities for Smith in this game, so he's absolutely in play as a streamer.
Player Notes:
Kenny Golladay (WR, DET): I wouldn't count on him playing, but if he does: upside WR3.
UPDATE: Kenny Golladay has officially been ruled out.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Matchups We Love:
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Taylor has seized control of this backfield, finally providing the elite production that we expected coming into the season. In his last three games, he's combined for 331 yards on 55 attempts (6.02 yards per carry) and two rushing touchdowns. He's also caught all nine of his targets for 83 yards and a touchdown. This is a certified RB1 in an elite matchup against a Texans Defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Taylor has the look of a Top-5 back this week.
T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)
Hilton has re-established himself as the WR1 in Indy, catching 17-of-23 targets for 277 yards and four touchdowns in his last three games. He has a great matchup here against the Texans. The Texans have played four games without CB Bradley Roby. In those games, opposing WR1s have gone nuclear. Allen Robinson: 9 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD, Davante Adams: 13 REC, 196 YDS, 2 TD, D.J. Chark: 7 REC, 146 YDS, 1 TD, and Hilton: 8 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD. Consider Hilton a WR2 in this game.
Matchups We Hate:
Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU)
Watson has been sacked 11 times in two games since Will Fuller was suspended for the rest of the season. He's going to have a tough time against this Colts Defense, especially if Brandin Cooks was forced to miss another game. The Colts have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Texans WRs
Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen should continue to see an uptick in targets if Cooks were to miss another game. If Cooks plays, Hansen would remain on the practice squad. It's going to be tough for the Texans to make any big plays downfield against this defense. The Colts have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Other Matchups:
Texans RBs
David Johnson is likely to return for this game. I would expect the Texans to try to feature him as a receiver because of the lack of trustworthy pass-catchers that they have in their lineup right now. We could see DJ rack up some checkdown receptions in this game, which keeps him in play as a FLEX option.
UPDATE: David Johnson practiced in full this week and is expected to play.
Philip Rivers (QB, IND)
Rivers has a great matchup against a Texans defense allowing 22.4 fantasy points per game (16th) to quarterbacks, but there's a decent chance that the Colts just feed Taylor and control this game, which would limit Rivers' upside. I think that the Texans will have a tough time moving the ball in this one. Rivers is in play as a streamer, but I don't love him this week.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Pittman has a chance to hit his ceiling this week with the way that the Texans have struggled against wide receivers without Bradley Roby. We need to consider Pittman a lukewarm play because of how he's taken a backseat to Hilton of late, but I love the rookie as a pivot play in DFS tournaments.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Matchups We Hate:
Cam Newton (QB, NE)
Cam has attempted only 53 passes in his last three games. If you're starting him, you're banking on him scoring a rushing touchdown, which is not a wise choice. The Dolphins Defense has been rock-solid all year, so there's no way you should consider playing Cam.
Patriots WRs
This Pats offense is extremely run-heavy, so we can't rely on any of their pass-catchers. The Dolphins defense is tough on the perimeter with CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. The Pats have a 19.75-point implied total and there's no way you should even consider any of their wide receivers.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tua had a breakout game against the Chiefs, but we saw how effective Bill Belichick is at limiting rookie quarterbacks when the Pats completely shut down Justin Herbert. This is going to be a grind-it-out, low-scoring football game and you should not use Tua this week.
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
Mike Gesicki is projected to miss this game, which would lead to an uptick in volume for Parker, but the Pats do a great job at shutting down the opponent's best weapon, so we can't trust Parker this week, especially considering that he's currently banged up with a hamstring injury.
UPDATE: Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker are both officially listed as questionable.
Other Matchups:
Damien Harris (RB, NE)
Harris has totaled 43 touches in his last three games (14.3 per game). He takes on a Dolphins defense allowing 25.3 fantasy points per game to running backs (22nd), so perhaps the Pats feed Harris in this one. Consider him a decent RB3/FLEX for this week, but temper your expectations in what looks like a low-scoring game.
UPDATE: Damien Harris is officially out for Week 15.
DeAndre Washington (RB, MIA)
Washington carried the load last week (17 touches) but was inefficient with his volume (52 total yards). The Pats are allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, but Washington's usage in the passing game keeps him in play as a RB3/FLEX.
Lynn Bowden Jr. (RB/WR, MIA)
Bowden caught 7-of-9 targets for 82 yards last week. There's a chance that this volume continues given the injuries to Dolphins pass-catchers. He's also eligible at running back in Yahoo leagues, which gives him a nice floor in PPR formats. He's on the WR/4 flex radar this week.
UPDATE: Salvon Ahmed is officially listed as questionable, and Matt Breida has been activated from the COVID-19 list.
Hi, Justin taking over now. Thanks, Frank!
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Matchups We Love:
Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI)
In three games since retaking the starting job, Trubisky is averaging 37.7 attempts per game and has seven touchdown passes against just two picks. And now, he gets the Vikings, who've allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. He's a high-end QB2 option and someone you can feel good about streaming.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
Cook is a virtual lock for at least 100 all-purpose yards, and while he hasn't been the most efficient back lately, his projected volume makes him an RB1 play every week. He had 34 touches in the first meeting between these teams, which is...a lot!
Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)
In three games since Trubisky returned, Robinson is averaging 7.7 catches and 90.7 yards, with three touchdowns. He's a high-end WR2 play.
Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
At this point, you're starting both of these guys every week. Last week was rough for Thielen as he had just three catches for 39 yards, but the matchup is better this week and he had two touchdowns last time these teams faced off. As for Jefferson, he has eight or more targets in four of the last five games, and while last week was about as bad as it was for Thielen, he had eight catches for 135 earlier against Chicago.
Matchups We Hate:
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
Montgomery missed the first meeting of these teams but has two 100-yard games in three games since returning to the field, and he had two touchdowns in the game where he didn't get 100 yards. He's also suddenly very involved in the passing game. But Minnesota allows the 11th-fewest rushing touchdowns to opposing backs, and I think that while Montgomery is a must-start in season-long, he's going to be overvalued in DFS.
Cole Kmet/Jimmy Graham (TE, CHI)
Kmet's role is growing, which mostly just leaves both of these guys as risky TE2 plays.
Other Matchups:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
The last game broke a streak of three consecutive 300-yard games for Kirk Cousins. His pass attempts are up, and before he was held to one touchdown pass against Tampa, he had nine touchdowns in three games. But with the Bears allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, there are other QBs I'd rather stream (like Trubisky, even if I feel gross saying that!)
Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN)
If Kyle Rudolph sits again, Smith is a nice TE2 play, as he had four catches for 63 and a score last week. If Rudolph plays, Smith becomes a bit too risky for me.
UPDATE: Kyle Rudolph has officially been ruled out.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team
We're assuming Antonio Gibson is out. If that changes, so does the analysis for J.D. McKissic.
Matchups We Love:
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
I don't care how tough the matchup is. Metcalf has had either 80-plus yards or a touchdown in all but two games this season, and you're starting him as a WR1 every week.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
The targets and numbers have been down the past two weeks, but McLaurin is still an incredibly talented player and had been on a run of six games in a row with at least 74 receiving yards. Seattle's defense is improving, but they're still susceptible to the right players. I think McLaurin -- regardless of his QB situation -- is the right player.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)
At a shallow position, Thomas has become a huge breakout player down the stretch, with five or more targets in five of the last six games. He had six catches last week and nine the week before. That kind of usage makes him a low-end TE1 play regardless of matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Alex Smith (?) (QB, WAS)
Seattle's defense has gotten better lately. Smith -- if he plays -- has no multi-touchdown games this season and while he's a great story, he's a middling QB2 option. So is Dwayne Haskins if Haskins starts.
UPDATE: Alex Smith has officially been ruled out, and Dwayne Haskins will start.
Other Matchups:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Washington allows the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While that probably shouldn't hurt Wilson, it's hard not to think of his last bad matchup against the Rams, when he threw two picks and no touchdowns. QB1 in season-long, but this is a week where I wouldn't be super enthused by him in DFS.
Chris Carson (RB, SEA)
Carson has gotten double-digit carries the last two weeks and this backfield is trending his direction, especially considering that since returning in Week 12, he's had five yards per carry or more in each game. Washington is good against the run thanks to a strong front seven though, so I'd temper expectations just a bit, though he's still an RB2 play in season-long.
J.D. McKissic (RB, WAS)
McKissic had double-digit carries for the first time last week and averaged 6.18 yards per carry. He's a threat as a rusher and receiver and has value as a low-end RB2. He should also be a nice DFS value play.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Lockett since the 200-yard game: an average of 5.1 receptions for 49.1 yards with just one touchdown in seven games. He always has some upside, but we've definitely reached the point where we can't really trust Lockett like we thought we could.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
Marquise Brown is currently on the COVID list, so I'm leaving him off of here for now. If he plays, he's a WR3 option. If he doesn't, I would...probably not play any Ravens wideout because it's the fantasy playoffs!
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Jacksonville allows the third-most fantasy points per game to QBs, while Jackson has found his legs over the past two games and is back to completing a high percentage of his throws. Consider him a high-end QB1.
James Robinson (RB, JAC)
Volume, volume, volume. No running back has a higher positional attempt percentage, with 96.14 percent of RB rushes for Jacksonville going Robinson's way. He'll get at least 15 touches and should be able to provide low-end RB1 value on those touches.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
The Jags allow the sixth-most points to the position. Andrews has 61 or more yards in three consecutive appearances. As long as he suits up -- he's dealing with a thigh injury -- he's a strong TE1 play.
Matchups We Hate:
Gardner Minshew II (QB, JAC)
Well, Gardner Minshew is back. He brings more upside than Mike Glennon does, but I'm not putting a playoff matchup into the hands of Minshew against the Ravens.
D.J. Chark Jr. (WR, JAC)
Oh. Uhh. Chark has four total catches in the past two weeks and has been a big disappointment ever since his huge game against the Texans. At this point, he's a WR4 play.
Other Matchups:
J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards (RB, BAL)
Volume has been up for Dobbins and he has touchdowns in three consecutive games. He should have ample chances to run all over this defense and is an RB2. As for Edwards, his value depends a lot on touchdowns, but he did have two of them last week and will have some opportunities to find the end zone this week. He's a boom/bust RB4.
Keelan Cole Sr. (WR, JAC)
Cole was targeted 12 times last week. He performs better when Minshew is at QB and had some of his better games earlier in the year, so if you need a dart-throw FLEX in a deep league, Cole's an option.
Matchups Analysis - 4:05/4:25 PM ET Games
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Matchups We Love:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Arizona has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this year, and Hurts rushed 18 times for 106 yards in his first NFL start. That seems like a good combination. It's risky, but you could talk me into starting him as my QB1 in a 10-team league.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Not the best matchup, but Murray seems to be back on track after some injury-aided struggles, and the Eagles do allow more rushing yards to QBs than anyone else, so feel confident in using Murray as your QB1 this week.
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
Just when we were giving up on him, Sanders explodes for 115 yards and two touchdowns. Maybe the QB change has helped shift how defenses have to deal with the run game? Sanders should be in line for high-end RB2 production.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
The targets are back, as he's reached double-digit ones in consecutive games. Hopkins is a must-start player every week, and Week 15 also looks primed to be one of those times where you can also feel good about paying up for him in DFS.
Matchups We Hate:
Eagles Wide Receivers
Hurts gets a lot of yards on the ground, which means last week there were just 167 passing yards in Philly. Wide receivers Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward Jr., and Alshon Jeffery combined for just five receptions, and all of them have incredibly low floors this week. If it wasn't the fantasy playoffs, I'd talk myself into Reagor as an upside play, but it's just too risky.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Christian Kirk has a total of 35 receiving yards in the last three games. While Kyler Murray is getting his groove back, Kirk sure isn't, and I don't see how you can trust him at all in the fantasy playoffs.
Other Matchups:
Kenyan Drake, Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI)
In the last three games, Drake has gotten 55 carries to Edmonds's 19, but they've played nearly equal snaps. If Drake was on the field 70 percent of the time, he might be a really strong fantasy option, but as it is, his snap rate lowers his upside, though he's still a low-end RB2 with upside. Edmonds gets some receiving usage, but not enough, and is an RB4 with less upside than Drake.
Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz (TE, PHI)
You can talk me into starting both guys in virtually all my leagues because of their upside, though Ertz is underperforming so far and Godert will lose snaps to Ertz. The Cardinals Defense is good against the position too, so while they might wind up as the top two targets for Hurts, there's enough downside for me to pivot off both guys in DFS.
Dan Arnold (TE, ARI)
Am I rolling with Arnold as my starting tight end in one playoff matchup? Yep! Do I feel good about it? Not really, because he's so touchdown dependent and isn't seeing consistent snaps.
New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams
Matchups We Love:
Jared Goff (QB, LAR)
The Jets allow the second-most fantasy points to QBs. Start Goff as a top-12 option.
Cam Akers (RB, LAR)
The Jets Defense is better at stopping the run game than the pass game, but Akers has grabbed hold of the RB1 job in L.A. and had 29 carries for 171 yards last week. He's a great RB2 start.
Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
The Jets allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to receivers. Woods has eight or more targets in four consecutive games. Kupp hasn't been quite as consistent but has a huge PPR ceiling. Both are borderline WR1 plays.
Matchups We Hate:
Sam Darnold (QB, NYJ)
The Rams have the best passing defense in the league right now. Darnold should not be on your radar.
Jets Skill Position Players
Frank Gore? Ty Johnson? Breshad Perriman? Chris Herndon? Denzel Mims? Jamison Crowder? I can't justify playing any of these guys in a 12-team league with a trip to the fantasy playoffs on the line. I benched Perriman for Lynn Bowden Jr. in one league.
Other Matchups:
Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
I expect a huge game for the Rams, but the tight end situation here remains tough to figure out, making Everett and Higbee limited-upside TE2 plays, even against a defense allowing the most points in the league to tight ends.
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
The Saints aren't a great matchup, as they allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. But as long as we assume last week's three interceptions were a fluke, we should see that even in a bad matchup, Mahomes is primed to throw at least a couple of touchdowns. He also has 300-plus yards in six consecutive games.
Taysom Hill (QB, NO)
KC allows the 11th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. Hill's legs give him an incredibly high floor, so even if he might struggle to pass against this defense, he should make enough things happen in the run game to make him a QB1 play.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara's pass-game usage returned last week, which led to him getting 18 touches. The Chiefs have allowed the third-most receiving yards to running backs, so expect Kamara to be heavily involved in this one.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Tyreek Hill's last seven games: an average of 7.4 receptions for 110.6 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game, plus five total carries for 68 yards and a score because the Chiefs like to get creative with him. You're starting him as a matchup-proof WR1.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce is a matchup-proof TE1, even against a Saints Defense that has been shutting down tight ends in the second half of the season.
Matchups We Hate:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
Part of why I like the Chiefs pass game so much this week is that I hate the run game. CEH has posted 46 yards or fewer in the run game in five of the last six games, and last week's five receptions seem like an anomaly based on recent usage. The Saints also allow the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, so there's that too.
Other Matchups:
Michael Thomas (WR, NO)
Thomas is finally getting things back together, posting nine catches for 105 against the Falcons then following that up with eight for 84 last week against Philly. The Chiefs allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers though and Thomas hasn't been his dominant self when he's played this year, so he rates as more of a mid-level WR2 because of the matchup.
UPDATE: Michael Thomas has officially been ruled out, and placed on IR.
Jared Cook (TE, NO)
One area where KC has struggled a bit is in defending against tight ends. Cook has touchdowns in consecutive games, and while the yardage isn't really there, he's a fine TE2 play if you're willing to bet on him finding the end zone.
Drew Brees (QB, NO)
Surprise! Brees is playing! But throwing him back in against this Chiefs Defense is pretty scary, so I wouldn't put him back in my fantasy lineup if I have a top-12 or so guy I can play instead.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Cleveland Browns at New York Giants
Matchups We Love:
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)
This run-centric Browns team against a pretty good Giants run defense could be trouble for Chubb, but considering he ran for two scores against a good Ravens run defense last week, I think you still start Chubb as a low-end RB1.
Matchups We Hate:
Daniel Jones or Colt McCoy (QB, NYG)
No. Not in the fantasy playoffs.
Darius Slayton (WR, NYG)
Slayton has four catches over the past three games. He had zero against Cincinnati. He's had an incredibly low floor all year long, and while some weeks you might be fine swallowing that risk and seeing what happens, Week 15 with a spot in the fantasy finals on the line is not that week.
Other Matchups:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Terrible matchup against a Giants Defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position, and against a comparable Steelers Defense earlier this year, Mayfield was shut down. But he's also been on a nice run the last few games, so if you need a QB2 based on recent play and want to ignore the matchup, have at it.
Wayne Gallman (RB, NYG)
Gallman has gone two games in a row without a touchdown, which feels like a long time after he had six of them in a five-week span. His volume has also dropped a little bit, with Dion Lewis getting more looks, including a red zone touch that resulted in a touchdown last week. Still, Gallman is getting enough touches to make him an RB2/3 type of play.
Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE)
The bad matchup for the Browns run game probably impacts Hunt more since he'll receive fewer touches. He's a risky RB2 play, but he's still (probably) an RB2 play based on the expectation that the Browns run the ball a lot here.
Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Landry is what he is: a guy you start in full PPR because of his target share and you hope things don't go wrong. Three games in a row, they haven't gone wrong. He's a fine WR3 option with upside.
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
I don't love Shepard this week, but if I'm playing a Giants receiver, it would be the one who has been slightly more consistent than Slayton, even if his heights don't reach Slayton's heights. Still, he's only like a WR4 or WR5.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Has to be on your radar because tight end is such a weak position, but also has a really low floor. Still, the Browns allow the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, so if there's ever a week for Engram to boom, this is it. Hesitantly play him as a low-end TE1.
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Click here to read about the Monday Night Football matchups between thePittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals.
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