First Basemen Set to Break Out in 2020

As we continue to wait on the 2020 fantasy baseball season, we shall dig even deeper into each position to find potential breakout performers. The first base position is one that is very top-heavy and drops off really fast. Most analysts will have eight to 10 first-base targets that are on the must-draft list. For this piece, we will go deep into the late rounds to find some breakout targets.

There are many, including myself, that love C.J. Cron, Christian Walker, and other first-base targets around pick 200 in drafts. If those players fly off the board, you are looking at the likes of Daniel Murphy, Jesus Aguilar, and others. In this article, we will look at three first base targets that have not blown up on the big scene just yet. 

All three picks are after pick 200 according to NFBC ADP for Draft Champions drafts since March 15. One just turned 25, while the other two are only 23 years old. The 23-year-olds have not even played a game in the majors. All three players will have their chance to shine this season and if they are up to the task have tremendous upside. Let’s take a look at three young, really talented first basemen that are due to breakout in 2020.

Evan White, Seattle Mariners

ADP: 337

This offseason, White signed a six-year contract extension with the Mariners. This came to the surprise of many, as White has not played past Double-A. He had always been one of the top prospects for the Mariners, so they believed he was ready. Last season, in Double-A, White put together a strong stat line of .293-18-61-55-2. That’s a really solid stat line, especially at the minor-league level which many see as the toughest for showcasing solid offensive production. 

White has been a really nice source of batting average in his three minor league seasons, but the power did not come on until last season. He has showcased a large ground ball rate and lower-than-desirable fly ball rate throughout the minors, but there were some nice improvements last season. His ground-ball rate was the lowest of his career at 43.4%, while his fly-ball rate reached its highest rate of 34.2%. White also improved his pull percentage to 45.9% and a hard-hit rate of 36.7% (medium rate 50.6%). 

The fly-ball rate, hard-hit rate, and the pull rate all are moving in the right direction for a massive power increase. The final power trend heading in the right direction is White’s HR/FB% and his average fly-ball distance. Both rates increased as the season went on and finished at better-than-average numbers. Double-A did not have the special bouncy ball like Triple-A and the majors last season, so the improved power was extra nice for White.

White is a plus defender and a solid average/on-base source for the Mariners. If the power continues to improve, he will be a steal at the contract extension the Mariners gave him. Dan Vogelbach is still hanging around but has proven he is basically only a DH. White is projected to hit near the bottom of the Mariners’ lineup. If White comes out swinging a hot bat, then he could move up in the order and be an even bigger steal in fantasy drafts.

Rowdy Tellez, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 439

There have been many that have hoped for a Rowdy Tellez breakout the last couple of seasons. Last year, he had a 111-game run with the Jays which had some mixed reviews. He was able to hit 21 home runs with a .222 ISO but only hit .227 with a crazy low .267 BABIP. He spent time platooning and at one point in the middle of the season was even sent down to Triple-A. Once again, Tellez raked in 26 games at Triple-A. He hit .366 with seven home runs and appeared to make the needed adjustments offensively.

During his month in Triple-A, the power was there, correlating with a hard-hit rate of 42% and a pull rate of 46%. He returned to the Jays on August 13 and hit seven home runs and carried a .255 ISO over his final 33 games, but only a .226 average. The end of the season was better for Tellez when we look a little deeper. His month of September is what should get Fantasy owners excited. Through 22 September games, Tellez hit .257 with six home runs. His power was really strong showcasing a .329 ISO and 139 wRC+.

That's quite an impressive month, but it gets better as he showcased a 52% hard-hit rate and 54.5% pull rate. Tellez was absolutely raking in September while he saw regular playing time. Those stats are nice and all, but the stat that carries the most wait for me from September was a .300 BABIP, remember the .267 BABIP to start the season.

The increase in average and overall production correlates with the increased BABIP. Throughout the minors, Tellez usually carried a pretty strong BABIP. Tellez continuing a solid BABIP and potentially improving his 39.7% ground ball and 27.6% fly ball rates could lead to a massive 2020 season. Tellez is currently the 41st first baseman drafted, at pick 439 according to NFBC Draft Champions drafts since March 15. The 25-year-old could be a massive steal in drafts, in line for a breakout season with proper playing time.

Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles

ADP: 407

Mountcastle has been a highly touted prospect in the Orioles organization and finally has his chance to break out in 2020. The 23-year-old has never played with the big club but should start the 2020 season with the Orioles. He is coming off a monster 2019 in Triple-A with a stat line of .312-25-81-83-2. This was by far his most complete season in the minors. 

He benefited from a .370 BABIP, the highest of his career. When he is hitting well, he usually has a BABIP between .330 and .340. He also had an ok 30% hard-hit rate, but a 47.5% medium-hit rate combining for a really strong 77.5% medium or hard-hit rate. He wasn’t hitting a lot of soft contact. The 25 home runs were also a career-best. The increase in home runs can be attributed to a more consistent fly ball distance and his best HR/FB of 18.5%. 

Mountcastle showcased some major gains in Triple-A last season and the Orioles are ready to make him an everyday player. During spring training he was working in the outfield as well as first base to allow for more regular playing time. He was being drafted at pick 407 since March 15 and is due for a major breakout in 2020.

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