X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Early 2020 ADP Reflections - First Base

When a baseball season ends, the following season can’t come here soon enough for some fans, myself included. We start thinking about what we want to see from some players, which includes letdowns, bounce-backs, and even young prospects. Instead of letting them bounce off the brain walls, let’s put these musings into digits. This includes things to watch out for as the season approaches that will affect drafts and in-season management. Some will force further research in the offseason.

This series will provide a few insights and items for consideration at each position; this week we dive into the first basemen. There will be more juicy morsels than the catcher spot (reviewed last week), but it still isn't as plentiful as we would like. Thankfully, it is top-heavy with skilled players, giving us something to toasts with our bourbon du jour.

There are enough solid first basemen to go around for everyone if you play in a 12-team league and everyone shares nicely so that each team gets one. If that scenario doesn't happen, things start to get dicey. Looking at early NFBC results, there are two elite options, one power play, and then a gaggle near pick 65. There are still decent options after that, but the questions start to mount. My preference* is to wait until the seventh round if I don't get one of the two elite players. Make no mistake about it, first base can get ugly quickly if you aren't paying attention. Pay attention.

Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!

Accelerating Off The Line

  • Will Danny Santana (ADP: 120) become baseball's version of a one-hit-wonder? The current love is tied to power/speed combo at a weak position. He doesn’t believe in walks(4.9%) just so he can smack the crap out of the ball (91.4mph avg exit velo). I might watch from a bit further back than the seventh round to keep an eye on his .353 BABIP, Chase rate (39.9%) and playing time.
  • There will be plenty of Peter Alonso (ADP: 28) discussions. Talks of cost, value, sophomore slump, etc.  Pure, raw, unadulterated power is the slogan. He tied for second on max exit velocity (118.3mph). Anyone really going to quibble over 40 HR, .250 AVG?
  • Jose Abreu (ADP: 78) stays at home. The quality of life is getting better in the ChiSox family. Sign me up for duplication of great counting stats.
  • The helium tank is nearly empty thanks to all the Matt Olson (ADP: 69) love. Can he still be a value even at that price point? If he can maintain the positives (crushing the ball) while improving versus lefties (.223 AVG), I’d want him everywhere too.
  • Some are acting like Trey Mancini* (ADP: 105) is the safety net of the position. He calls Camden home, but doesn't rely on it for success. The departure of Jonathan Villar will have some negative effect on the numbers. Multi-positional eligibility provides some extra coziness. Can you believe he’ll be 29 years old in 2020?

 

Coasting Down Main Street

  • Freddie Freeman (ADP: 16) is boringly successful. Barrel rate (12.5%) returned to norm from 2018 resulting in more homers. If you pick from the mid-to-latter half of the first round, have a plan in case he drifts to you in the second.
  • No one talks about Anthony Rizzo (ADP: 59). He gets on base, hits his homers, tallies the counting stats and even adds a few SB. It’s not sexy. “Not sexy” has value and might be what your roster needs at times.
  • It wouldn’t be surprising to find out there was a moment of pause before Josh Bell (ADP: 91) was selected in drafts. Yes, he had a forgettable second half that most will not forget; though he did walk more (14.2%) and strikeout less (17.3%). He’s priced right and there will be no discounts; he’s still a very good bat at first base.
  • Paul Goldschmidt (ADP: 66) doesn’t run anymore. Complaining about it doesn’t help you. You either want what he is selling or you don’t. Uncharacteristically, he struggled against four-seamers with a 10.3% Swinging Strike rate and a .232 AVG. He’s still very good.
  • Is Rhys Hoskins* (ADP: 114) cruising or stuck in the mud? The numbers and treatment suggest the latter, but I’d use that as an advantage. It is true his Mike Tyson Punch Out-type uppercut swing (24-degree launch angle) led to a league-leading fly ball rate (50.4%). He still has excellent plate discipline and maybe, just maybe, he can improve his endurance (second half) and lefty splits; both are a career .221 AVG. Wagon stays hitched.

 

Stuck In The Mud

  • Will Luke Voit (ADP: 193) be ready (abdominal surgery)? Sexy power in a wonderful lineup, but do the whiffs (15.8% Swing Strike) and poor contact (66%) keep him in the lineup? Enter Mike Ford (ADP: 571) Ooh-La-La. Voit may have poor plate discipline but he’s not alone down there, he walks shoulder to shoulder with Danny Santana (also 15.8% SwStr). Sorry, I forgot to mention that above, didn’t I?
  • Daniel Murphy (ADP: 224) will not get a second look by many as the “Coors effect” didn’t materialize. However, the 1.9% Brls/PA and a deteriorating exit velocity (86.3 MPH) aren’t scaring everyone away. Did the finger injury cause this? Did age cause this? It costs a 15th-round pick for batting average support and the possibility of 15-20 homers.
  • Ageists continue to turn a cold shoulder towards Edwin Encarnacion (ADP: 214). That's fine. To get 30 homers in the 14th round is a gift horse.
  • Christian Walker (ADP: 205) is supposed to be considered Goldschmidt Lite. He's a solid late option if I've avoided the position the entire draft.
  • C.J. Cron (ADP: 284) is the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball: no respect. He hit at least 25 homers the last two seasons and yet, he is looking for a job. Cron salivates at the idea of facing southpaws (.326 AVG). Full disclosure, he would prefer to avoid righties, batting .231 and .225 in 2018 and 2019, respectively. I’ll be taking a chance on him late in Draft & Hold leagues.
  • Eric Hosmer (ADP: 215). I know, I know. You don’t want to hear any talk about this guy. The lineup around him has improved this offseason and he hit the ball harder than ever (40.1% Hard hit rate) in 2019. However, he’s also putting a lot of divots in the ground (56% Ground-ball rate).
  • You want Nathaniel Lowe (ADP: 246). We want Nate Lowe. Everyone wants Nate Lowe, except for the ones that matter most, the Rays. He may bounce to the minors again as well as get squeezed in a platoon. Ultimately, his 91.3mph average exit velo with solid batting average should garner some playing time. Color me frustrated at the end of the year with this situation.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

WIN MORE IN 2024

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Alexis Diaz fantasy baseball closers rankings draft sleepers waiver wire pickups

MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. In addition to closers and saves, relief... Read More


Do These Prospects Matter for Fantasy Baseball?

The 2023 fantasy baseball season has been highlighted by the promotion of nearly two-dozen top prospects to the major leagues to impact fantasy rosters. This week's edition features one player who was called up as the piece was being written. Will these strong performers join the ranks of those who have moved to the majors... Read More


clayton kershaw fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

articles report test

this is a test


Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome back! It's Week 24 of our fantasy baseball Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups series! There are just two precious weeks left, and every start is becoming more and more important as most of the fantasy baseball world is in playoff matchups. If you've made it this far, there's a good chance you don't really... Read More


Aaron Nola - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Starts & Sits for MLB Week 23 - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball

Welcome back RotoBallers! Big week in fantasy leagues as we approach the end of the season and playoffs! As always, we are here with our starting pitcher starts and sits series to help you set those winning lineups for the week ahead! For those who are not familiar, RotoBaller puts out a weekly grid of... Read More


Gunnar Henderson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Points League Hitters: Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome to Week 24 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire hitters. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax. Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform,... Read More


Brayan Bello - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Two-Start Pitcher Streamers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Yo, it's Jon Anderson, continuing to run the show here in terms of late-summer fantasy baseball writing. There are just two weeks left of streaming pitchers, so let's make it count! This weekly fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column aims to identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy baseball week,... Read More


Fantasy Baseball Week 24 Injury News and Updates: Tyler Glasnow, Ozzie Albies, Starling Marte, Anthony Rizzo, Zack Wheeler

September is now more than half over. The baseball season is slowly coming to a close. At this point, fantasy players are pushing for their league titles or just playing for pride. Major League Baseball teams continue to do the same and injuries continue to happen, now with the dreaded term "done for the season"... Read More


Joe Musgrove - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/17/22)

Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/17/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Today's MLB slates are split up as is the norm for September baseball. Half the guys I think will play will not, so you have to be as flexible as Gumby to play MLB DFS in September, but that also means that there is a lot of money out there should you dare to dive... Read More


Max Fried - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/15/22)

Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


Robbie Ray - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Draft Sleepers

DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/16/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Fridays are big MLB DFS days and offer a nice respite from the NFL, who command our attention on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays. This slate, like most Friday slates, is a big one as all MLB teams are in action today and 28 of those teams are on tonight's 14-game DFS slate. This was a... Read More


kyle farmer fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Top Hitter Streamers and Starts for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

There are only two weeks left of fantasy baseball! It's going to be very sad when the season comes to an end, but the impending end of the season means that these are the most important, and therefore most fun weeks of the year – for those of you still competing, at least. I have... Read More


TODAY’S MOST VIEWED PLAYERS

rotating JS ad test

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
derrick henry fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

test publish 5 mins in future

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


PrizePicks NFL DFS Picks - Monday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Updates for Aaron Rodgers

Warning: Undefined array key "amp_post_template_footer" in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 6 Warning: foreach() argument must be of type array|object, null given in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 6 Featured Promo: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off and win big in 2022. Exclusive access to our Premium articles, 15 lineup... Read More


derrick henry fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

PrizePicks NFL DFS Picks - Monday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monkey Knife Fight - Monday Night Football

Welcome to NFL Monday Night Football, where we have two games scheduled between the Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles and the Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills.  Monday's games mean our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are offering some fantastic props for us to play once again! The good people at Monkey Knife Fight offer some... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Week 2 Updates for Najee Harris, J.K. Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram

Below you will find our fantasy football injuries report for running backs in Week 2, as of September 17. The injury statuses for various NFL running backs are up in the air for Week 2 including D'Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, and more. The fantasy football season may be just getting underway,... Read More


michael pittman jr. fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL WRs: Week 2 Updates for Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Allen Lazard, Julio Jones

Welcome to Week 2 of the fantasy football season and the Saturday edition of our WR injury reports! Below you will find our fantasy football injuries report for wide receivers in Week 2 as of September 16th. The injury statuses for various NFL wide receivers are up in the air for Week 2, including Michael... Read More


justin herbert fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports for QBs: Week 2 Updates for Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, Mac Jones

Below you will find our updated fantasy football injuries report for quarterbacks in the days before Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season as of Friday, September 16. There are a few NFL QBs dealing with injuries, including Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, and Mac Jones. Being up-to-date on NFL injury news can give... Read More


Trey Lance - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Week 2

Every week, I share some of my favored choices and players to go with when dealing with challenging lineup decisions. These selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a discount and get access to my ranks in all formats, plus... Read More


Saquon Barkley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, Draft Sleepers

Week 2 NFL Pick Em Selections for No House Advantage

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is underway and that means our friends over at No House Advantage have a TON of great DFS plays we can look to take advantage of. No House Advantage is a unique DFS prop picks site where you do not have to play against the house to... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 2: Greg Dortch, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk

Week 1 made some things come to light as we got some clarity on some murky situations. Unfortunately, many of our WR targets for DFS last week were victims of this. Robert Woods finished the game with one reception for 13 yards, as the Titans used the rookie receivers much more than him. Brandon Aiyuk... Read More


Carson Wentz - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 2: Top NFL Player Props Bets

Football season is back! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks... Read More


Fantasy Football IDP Injury Reports For NFL Defensive Players: Week 2 Updates for T.J. Watt, Jamal Adams, Jalen Thompson, Ed Oliver

T.J. Watt owners, you know the feeling... I had T.J. Watt in my home league last season. He was constantly checking out of games early with nagging minor injuries, but he must have led every IDP manager who started him to the playoffs. I went back to the well and drafted him early this year.... Read More