Year-In-Review: Framber Valdez

Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez has been one of the team's many intriguing prospects over the past several seasons. He first got consistent playing time (mostly in relief) in 2019 and put forth poor results with a 4-7 record, 5.86 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and 20.7% strikeout rate over 70 2/3 inning pitched. He also pitched 70 2/3 innings in 2020 (mostly starts), but had vastly different results. The 27-year-old went 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 26.4% strikeout rate.

Taking a quick look at Valdez's batted-ball profile, he did a great job keeping the ball on the ground with a -0.8-degree launch angle, but got hit quite hard; his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were both in the bottom-five percent of baseball. He also lowered his walk rate considerably from 13.4% to 5.6% while posting an above-average strikeout rate.

After improving so much from a disappointing 2019, what can fantasy players make of Valdez's 2020 season? What can they expect from him in 2021? I will take a deep dive into his season to see if Valdez can repeat his newfound success next season.

Where Did The Strikeouts Come From?

The main surface stat that stands out to me for Valdez was his 5.7 percentage-point jump in strikeout rate from 2019 to 2020, bumping him from a middling strikeout pitcher to an above-average one. Such a development would have positive fantasy implications if it could be sustained, so how did Valdez do it? Upon first look, Valdez did a relatively better job striking out left-handed hitters than he did right-handed hitters.

Looking deeper, however, something curious stand out; Valdez's overall swinging-strike rate actually decreased slightly from 2019 (10.6%) to 2020 (10.0%). In fact, the only pitch that saw an increase in swinging-strike rate was his four-seam fastball, which he pretty much stopped throwing in favor of his sinker. How did Valdez's strikeout rate increase by so much if he did not see a jump in swinging-strike rate?

There are two possible explanations I could come up with. The first could be that Valdez got more called strikeouts, and the second could be that he had more swinging strikes for strikeouts compared to other counts. He did throw the ball in the strike zone more frequently, increasing his zone percentage from 49.9% to 52.5% (benefitting his walk rate considerably). Consequently, his overall called-strike rate also increased from 16.7% to 20.1%. However, his first-strike percentage also increased from 51.1% to 54.3%, which could have been called strikes or swinging strikes.

In sum, I dug deep to try to find an explanation for Valdez's increased strikeout rate and was left unsatisfied. Valdez did throw more pitches in the strike zone and did throw more first-pitch strikes, but he saw fewer swinging strikes overall. Given that I could not come to a definitive conclusion, I would be weary of Valdez posting a similar strikeout rate in 2021.

2021 Outlook

Valdez's 2020 strikeout numbers may not be sustainable, but there are other aspects of his game that certainly could be.  The first is his walk rate. As mentioned earlier, Valdez threw the ball in the strike zone more and also caw an increase in chase rate from 23.9% to 26.5%. For a pitcher who pitches to contact (he had the 13th-highest contact rate among qualified pitchers), Valdez cannot afford to put runners on for free, so his decreased walk rate was encouraging. Further, his low launch angle led to above-average expected stats, including a 3.23 SIERA, despite getting hit hard.

Overall, Valdez looks like he made some solid improvements in 2020 that could stick in 2021. Even if his strikeout rate regresses some, he should have a spot at the top of the Astros rotation with a decent offense supporting him. It would not be inconceivable to see Valdez make 25 starts in 2021 with a low-20% strikeout rate, a high single-digit walk rate, and a high-3 to low-4 ERA, which would make him a valuable back-of-the-rotation fantasy starter.

Valdez's early ADP is currently 88 overall, making him the 32nd pitcher off the board. This puts him just ahead of position players like Austin Meadows, Charlie Blackmon, Anthony Rizzo, J.D. Martinez, Max Muncy, and Jeff McNeil. It also puts him ahead of pitchers such as Jose Berrios, Kyle Hendricks, Jesus Luzardo, Julio Urias, and Chris Paddack.

Using a top-100 pick on Valdez seems high to me, considering a conservative 2021 projection and the names he is going immediately ahead of. While some of the position players may be older, they have shown that they can be relied on season after season for high fantasy production. Valdez did provide a good deal of fantasy production last season, but it is not certain if all of his improvements will carry over. As such, I would also be more comfortable taking any of the above pitchers in that range because they have either showed that they can be consistently successful or have shown a higher potential ceiling. Valdez could return top-100 value if he replicates everything he did last season; given that that seems unlikely, he would be a better value in the pick 110 to pick 120 range.

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