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Frank Ammirante's Updated PPR Rankings vs. RotoBaller Consensus

We're right in the heart of draft season, so it's the perfect time to release my final PPR rankings. These are tiered rankings organized by position. My rankings prioritize upside and downgrade injury concerns. There are some players who I was previously high on, but was forced to downgrade due to injuries, such as Allen Robinson and D'Andre Swift. As with any rankings, remember to account for ADP in order to optimize your lineup!

In this article, I'll describe my reasoning behind a few players who I'm higher on than RotoBaller consensus, as well as others who I've ranked lower. I'll focus on players whose ranking discrepancy is more impactful, rather than just listing the players with the widest variance with RotoBaller consensus.

Below you'll find a few selections that will surely have you raising an eyebrow. Be sure to voice these concerns and come at me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ! I can assure you that I'll be ready to provide insights behind these selections and we can engage in debate.

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Quarterbacks

Tier Rank QB RotoBaller Rank
1 1 Deshaun Watson 6
1 2 Patrick Mahomes 2
1 3 Lamar Jackson 1
2 4 Dak Prescott 3
2 5 Russell Wilson 5
2 6 Kyler Murray 4
3 7 Matt Ryan 8
3 8 Carson Wentz 10
3 9 Daniel Jones 14
3 10 Joe Burrow 20
3 11 Josh Allen 7
3 12 Matthew Stafford 13
4 13 Tom Brady 11
4 14 Aaron Rodgers 12
4 15 Cam Newton 27
4 16 Drew Brees 9
4 17 Jimmy Garoppolo 19
4 18 Ryan Tannehill 17
5 19 Ben Roethlisberger 15
5 20 Drew Lock 22
5 21 Jared Goff 18
5 22 Gardner Minshew 25
5 23 Tyrod Taylor 31
5 24 Teddy Bridgewater 28
5 25 Baker Mayfield 16
6 26 Sam Darnold 24
6 27 Kirk Cousins 21
6 28 Derek Carr 26
6 29 Dwayne Haskins 30
6 30 Philip Rivers 23
6 31 Ryan Fitzpatrick 29
6 32 Nick Foles 33
7 33 Tua Tagovailoa 34
7 34 Justin Herbert 35
7 35 Mitch Trubisky 32
7 36 Jalen Hurts 41
7 37 Jameis Winston 37
7 38 Andy Dalton 38
7 39 Jacoby Brissett 39
7 40 Jarrett Stidham 36

 

QBs I'm Higher On

Joe Burrow (+10) checks off all the boxes that you want in a fantasy quarterback. He has a dynamic group of weapons in the passing game. He plays for a team with a weak defense. He's also a pro-ready prospect, so there won't be any playbook limitations. Burrow is going to make an immediate impact for the Bengals and he offers league-winning upside. Check out a more extensive look at Burrow's upside here.

Deshaun Watson (+5) now has an arsenal of deep-threats which align with one of his biggest strengths: downfield passing. He plays for a Texans' team with a porous defense which should increase his passing volume. His backfield consists of two backs more known for their receiving skills than running ability. It's the perfect storm for Watson to have a career year. I've laid out a more in-depth case for Watson at QB1 here.

Daniel Jones (+5) flashed significant upside as a rookie, putting up 25+ fantasy points in four games. He was able to do this despite never having all of his weapons on the field at the same time. Jones also has rushing upside, which raises his weekly floor. The Giants have a weak defense which will lead to several shootouts. You can check out more Jones talk here.

QBs I'm Lower On

Baker Mayfield (-9) is set for a bump in efficiency with an improved offensive line, but new head coach Kevin Stefanski looks poised to implement a more conservative offense that relies on the running game in an effort to mitigate Mayfield's turnover issues. Kirk Cousins attempted only 444 passes last season, so we can expect a similar number for Mayfield, who made 534 attempts last season. I just can't get behind that lack of volume.

Drew Brees (-7) is entering his age-41 season and has become more of a check-down passer. He threw 27 touchdowns on only 378 attempts last season, giving him a 7.1 TD%, which was the highest touchdown rate of his career. I just can't invest in an aging quarterback headed for significant touchdown regression, playing for a contending team that will likely limit his volume.

Josh Allen (-4) has the best supporting cast of his career with the additions of Stefon Diggs and Zack Moss. The problem is that much of his fantasy value is derived from his rushing touchdowns. Allen has rushed for eight or more touchdowns in the past two seasons - no quarterback has ever done that in three consecutive seasons, not even Cam Newton. Allen will need a bump in passing production to deliver fantasy value, but I can't bank on that given his struggles with accuracy.

 

Running Backs

Tier Rank RB RotoBaller Rank
1 1 Saquon Barkley 2
1 2 Christian McCaffrey 1
2 3 Ezekiel Elliott 4
2 4 Derrick Henry 7
2 5 Alvin Kamara 3
2 6 Clyde Edwards-Helaire 9
3 7 Josh Jacobs 12
3 8 Joe Mixon 6
3 9 Miles Sanders 10
3 10 Aaron Jones 14
3 11 Nick Chubb 13
3 12 Dalvin Cook 5
3 13 James Conner 20
3 14 Austin Ekeler 8
3 15 Kenyan Drake 11
4 16 Jonathan Taylor 21
4 17 Cam Akers 22
4 18 Antonio Gibson 59
4 19 Melvin Gordon 17
4 20 Le'Veon Bell 19
4 21 David Johnson 24
4 22 Chris Carson 16
4 23 Mark Ingram 23
4 24 Raheem Mostert 26
4 25 Todd Gurley 18
4 26 Leonard Fournette 15
5 27 Kareem Hunt 29
5 28 J.K. Dobbins 36
5 29 Zack Moss 43
5 30 David Montgomery 27
5 31 Kerryon Johnson 40
5 32 Devin Singletary 28
5 33 Jordan Howard 31
5 34 D'Andre Swift 25
5 35 Tarik Cohen 35
5 36 James White 30
5 37 Marlon Mack 37
6 38 Ronald Jones 32
6 39 Chase Edmonds 51
6 40 Latavius Murray 42
6 41 Alexander Mattison 48
6 42 Damien Harris 57
6 43 Tevin Coleman 41
6 44 Tony Pollard 53
6 45 Duke Johnson 45
6 46 Matt Breida 33
6 47 Phillip Lindsay 39
6 48 Darrell Henderson 46
6 49 Joshua Kelley 47
6 50 Nyheim Hines 44
7 51 A.J. Dillon 52
7 52 Jerick McKinnon 79
7 53 Darrell Williams 87
7 54 Bryce Love 71
7 55 Giovani Bernard 55
7 56 Chris Thompson 63
7 57 Dion Lewis 72
7 58 Carlos Hyde 68
7 59 Boston Scott 49
7 60 Darrynton Evans 56

 

RBs I'm Higher On

Jonathan Taylor (+5) has a terrific setup with the Colts, running behind the best offensive line in football. Concerns over Marlon Mack has created a buying opportunity. As another back with deficiencies in the passing game, Mack has a redundant skill-set to Taylor. The Colts would be wise to move Mack at the trade deadline. Simply put, Taylor is one of the best pure rookie runners we have seen in recent memory. Even if he gets off to a slow start, there's a high chance that he'll be considered an RB1 during the stretch run.

Josh Jacobs (+5) was an absolute stud as a rookie, but his passing game concerns have kept his draft stock lower than it should be. This is a player who is one of the most talented pure runners in football, ranking first on PFF's elusive rating. Jacobs has the upside to lead the league in rushing yards. Even with the signing of Theo Riddick, it's hard to imagine Jacobs not eclipsing the 20 receptions he posted as a rookie. Capitalize on the buying opportunity presented by concerns over receiving volume.

Aaron Jones (+4) is likely to be peppered with targets playing for a Packers team with limited weapons outside himself and Davante Adams. Jones is going to be a focal point of this offense, with gains in receiving volume helping off-set touchdown regression. This Packers team looks like the discount version of the Saints' offense, with Jones playing the role of Alvin Kamara.

RBs I'm Lower On

Leonard Fournette (-11) joins a Buccaneers' team with a stacked offense, but I expect him to form a one-two punch with Ronald Jones. I think this is the case where Bruce Arians and his staff unexpectedly saw a veteran back available and decided to pounce, but I do believe that they are still high on Jones. I'd rather have Fournette than Jones, but this is a situation to avoid for fantasy. Don't expect anywhere close to the receiving volume that Fournette saw in Jacksonville.

Dalvin Cook (-7) is an outstanding running back, but I just can't invest in him this year due to his injury concerns and potential holdout. When Adam Schefter makes a bold claim that he would hesitate drafting Cook if his contract issues are not resolved by the start of the season, you know it's a red flag. There's simply too many talented running backs that can be selected in the first two rounds, so I'm out on Cook.

Christian McCaffrey (-1) put up one of the best fantasy seasons in NFL history, but I prefer taking Saquon Barkley this year. The reason is simple: McCaffrey is being over-worked. He's coming off a 403-touch season in 2019, which came on the heels of a 326-touch year in 2018. Running backs that receive such a workload tend to have down seasons or even sharp declines, so the Panthers would be wise to limit the touches of their 5'11, 205-lb back. I mention his frame because most backs with such workloads are at least 220-lbs, so this makes it even more important to reduce CMC's touches.

 

Wide Receivers

Tier Rank WR RotoBaller Rank
1 1 Davante Adams 2
1 2 Michael Thomas 1
1 3 Tyreek Hill 4
2 4 Julio Jones 3
2 5 A.J. Brown 16
2 6 D.J. Moore 14
2 7 JuJu Smith-Schuster 10
2 8 Adam Thielen 12
2 9 Chris Godwin 6
2 10 Mike Evans 9
2 11 Allen Robinson 7
2 12 Odell Beckham Jr. 15
2 13 DeAndre Hopkins 5
2 14 Kenny Golladay 8
2 15 Amari Cooper 11
3 16 Terry McLaurin 26
3 17 D.J. Chark 21
3 18 D.K. Metcalf 20
3 19 Calvin Ridley 25
3 20 Robert Woods 18
3 21 Cooper Kupp 13
3 22 Tyler Lockett 19
4 23 Will Fuller 36
4 24 Tyler Boyd 29
4 25 DeVante Parker 23
4 26 Stefon Diggs 28
4 27 Marquise Brown 32
4 28 Keenan Allen 17
4 29 Courtland Sutton 22
5 30 CeeDee Lamb 38
5 31 Michael Gallup 33
5 32 Jerry Jeudy 45
5 33 Deebo Samuel 51
5 34 A.J. Green 31
5 35 T.Y. Hilton 24
5 36 Julian Edelman 30
5 37 Christian Kirk 44
5 38 Brandin Cooks 35
5 39 Jalen Reagor 57
5 40 Marvin Jones 34
5 41 Jarvis Landry 27
5 42 John Brown 43
6 43 Mecole Hardman 64
6 44 Jamison Crowder 42
6 45 Diontae Johnson 49
6 46 Sterling Shepard 47
6 47 DeSean Jackson 59
6 48 Brandon Aiyuk 58
6 49 Darius Slayton 37
6 50 Mike Williams 39
6 51 Golden Tate 40
7 52 Curtis Samuel 63
7 53 Anthony Miller 48
7 54 Bryan Edwards 95
7 55 Parris Campbell 67
7 56 Laviska Shenault 80
7 57 Robby Anderson 52
7 58 Preston Williams 50
7 59 N'Keal Harry 53
7 60 Breshad Perriman 55
7 61 Henry Ruggs 56
7 62 Michael Pittman Jr. 66
7 63 Justin Jefferson 46
7 64 Randall Cobb 71
7 65 Allen Lazard 54
7 66 Hunter Renfrow 62
7 67 Sammy Watkins 61
7 68 Corey Davis 73
7 69 Larry Fitzgerald 75
7 70 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 103

 

WRs I'm Higher On

Will Fuller (+13) is now firmly entrenched as the WR1 in Houston with the departure of DeAndre Hopkins. When Fuller is in the lineup, Watson shines: +52 in passing yards per game, +1.5 in yards per attempt, and +2.9% in touchdown rate, so it's clear that the duo has great chemistry. We saw Fuller's ridiculous ceiling against the Falcons last year, where he went off for 14 receptions, 217 yards, and three touchdowns. Use the injury concerns as a buying opportunity.

A.J. Brown (+11) was one of three receivers since 1990 to put up 50+ receptions, 1,000+ yards, and 20.0+ yards per reception. He did that as a rookie on only 84 targets. There are concerns over volume, but Brown produced at a 100 target pace with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. As the Titans move away from Corey Davis, expect them to funnel targets to Brown. 130+ targets is within the realm of possibility. That gives him mouth-watering upside.

CeeDee Lamb (+8) joins a loaded group of wide receivers in Dallas, but the team has 166 vacated targets with the departures of Randall Cobb and Jason Witten. There's enough volume here for all three receivers to provide fantasy value. Lamb is currently tearing up Cowboys' camp and I expect him to supplant Michael Gallup as the WR2 on this team. The rookie receiver out of Clemson has league-winning upside, so he gets a big bump in my rankings.

WRs I'm Lower On

Keenan Allen (-11) is a clinical route-runner, but he looks poised for a down year with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, as the Chargers will transition to a low-volume, run-heavy offense. Allen depends on volume to excel, as he's not really a big-play receiver, so that really downgrades him in these rankings. The Chargers have a great supporting cast, so it looks likely that Taylor will remain the starter. That's bad news for Allen.

DeAndre Hopkins (-8) is one of the best receivers in football, but it's hard to invest such a high pick in a player who's joining a new team during this tumultuous off-season. Kliff Kingsbury's scheme involves having the quarterback spread the ball around, so it's likely that we see some regression in volume - don't expect Hopkins to reach 150 targets like he did last year. As promising as Kyler Murray is, he's a clear downgrade from Deshaun Watson. Let someone else draft Hopkins this year.

Cooper Kupp (-8) saw a sharp decline in production once the Rams transitioned to more two-wide-receiver/two-tight-end sets, as Robert Woods became the preferred target in this offense. I would expect the Rams to continue to utilize this formation most often, so Kupp looks more like a WR2 that's being drafted as a low-end WR1. I'd rather take ascending players like Terry McLaurin or D.K. Metcalf.

 

Tight Ends

Tier Rank TE RotoBaller Rank
1 1 George Kittle 2
1 2 Travis Kelce 1
2 3 Mark Andrews 3
2 4 Zach Ertz 4
2 5 Darren Waller 5
2 6 Evan Engram 8
3 7 Tyler Higbee 6
3 8 Noah Fant 13
3 9 Hunter Henry 7
3 10 Austin Hooper 10
4 11 Chris Herndon 22
4 12 T.J. Hockenson 16
4 13 Mike Gesicki 14
5 14 Hayden Hurst 12
5 15 Jonnu Smith 18
5 16 Blake Jarwin 19
5 17 Dallas Goedert 17
6 18 Rob Gronkowski 9
6 19 Jared Cook 11
6 20 Jack Doyle 15
7 21 Ian Thomas 23
7 22 Irv Smith Jr. 21
7 23 Eric Ebron 20
7 24 Dawson Knox 25
7 25 Jace Sternberger 24

 

TEs I'm Higher On

Chris Herndon (+11) had his sophomore season washed out due to injury, which has created a buying opportunity. Herndon put up 500+ yards as a rookie, joining elite company that includes Rob Gronkowski, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews. He also put up 8.96 yards per target that year, ranking 5th among rookie tight ends since the merger. Herndon has a clear path to targets playing for a Jets' team that has no alpha WR1. Check out a more in-depth look here.

Noah Fant (+5) is one of the most athletic tight ends in football, ranking in the 97th-percentile or higher in speed, burst, agility, and catch radius scores on PlayerProfiler. He flashed upside as a rookie with two 100-yard games on four or fewer receptions, including a 75-yard touchdown. Fant's big-play ability is unmatched at the tight end position. He looks like the best bet of the potential breakout young tight ends. Check out more on Fant here.

George Kittle (+1) takes over the mantle of top tight end because he could see a career-high in targets with injuries to Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Kittle is also headed for positive touchdown regression, as he only put up five touchdowns despite ranking tied for second with most targets among tight ends within the 10-yard line. Kittle is four years younger than Kelce and ready to take over at TE1.

TEs I'm Lower On

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Rob Gronkowski (-9) is a 31-year old tight end with back issues coming off a one-year retirement to join a new team in Tampa Bay. The Bucs are playoff contenders with terrific tight end depth with O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, so they have an incentive to limit Gronk's snaps to keep him fresh for the stretch run. I just can't get behind investing in a touchdown-dependent tight end this year. Check out Gronk pessimism here.

Jared Cook (-8) is coming off a season where he set a career-high with nine touchdowns. The Saints are no longer a high-volume passing offense, so it's hard to expect Cook's low target total (4.64 per game in 2019) to increase. Cook is entering his age-33 season, making it tough to bank on sustained big-play production that he would need to deliver fantasy value. In a year where tight end is deeper than usual, I'm out.

Jack Doyle (-5) is another veteran tight end that I choose to avoid in favor of upside breakout targets. Doyle should get some volume with checkdown Philip Rivers at quarterback, but he's not a big-play tight end and he's never been a real threat in the red-zone (career-high is five touchdowns). I'd rather take a shot on a younger, more athletic tight end than settle for Doyle.



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