Freddie Freeman to Dodgers - Fantasy Baseball Impact

3 years ago by Jon Anderson

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The Los Angeles Dodgers did not need to add a free agent hitter to go into the 2022 MLB season as the league's premier offense.

They did not let that fact stop them from signing the cream of the free-agent crop Freddie Freeman to a huge six-year contract.

Let's talk briefly about the fantasy impact of this move and how it affects Freeman's ADP.

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Freddie the MVP

The 32-year-old lefty has been one of the game's best hitters for a handful of years now. He has finished top-10 in MVP voting in each of the last four seasons, and won the award in the short 2020 season. Over that time he has slashed a ridiculous .306/.398/.532 with 105 homers in 539 games played. His 162 game average over that sample has been 94 runs, 26 homers, 89 RBI, and six stolen bases.

Since 2018, only 13 qualified hitters have OPS marks over .900, and Freeman is comfortably one of them.

Player	PA	OPS
Mike Trout	1595	1.072
Juan Soto	2003	.981
Fernando Tatis Jr.	1175	.965
Mookie Betts	2116	.948
Christian Yelich	1953	.940
Bryce Harper	2220	.937
Freddie Freeman	2356	.929
Ronald Acuna Jr.	1764	.925
Anthony Rendon	1724	.919
Aaron Judge	1692	.917
J.D. Martinez	2177	.917
Alex Bregman	1975	.914
Nelson Cruz	1910	.910

You can also see from that table that Freeman has stayed on the field, leading that group of names in plate appearances by a wide margin. Nothing in Freeman's 2021 profile showed any warning signs of decline. He posted another elite strikeout rate (15.4%), his second-best contact rate (80.9%), and an elite Statcast profile (11.5% Brl%, 113.6 max velo, 91.4 average velo) to boot. I don't think I need to say anymore to convince you that Freeman is and will continue to be an MVP-caliber player.

The Dodger Impact

It will not be an enjoyable time for a pitcher to face the Dodgers this year, their projected starting lineup looks more like an All-Star team than anything else.

It's not like Freeman hasn't had stud hitters around him in recent years, he has certainly benefited from the likes of Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. hitting around him, but this Dodgers lineup is next-level. The two guys projected to hit directly in front of Freeman are elite on-base percentage guys (Turner .375, Betts .367 in 2021), and there is not a single below-average bat down the order behind him.

In terms of park factors, it appears to be an upgrade here as well. Dodgers Stadium rates out very close to average in everything except the long ball, there was a 24% boost there last year, compared to just a 1% boost in Atlanta. These numbers are controlled for player talent as well, so the Dodgers do not benefit in this metric just from having an elite offense.

Projection Change?

We tend to overstate the impact of the supporting cast in the first place, and Freeman isn't coming from a bad team anyways. To me, that means we shouldn't be changing much in the projection. Before the trade, ATC projections had Freeman with a .296/.393/.528 slash line going for 103 runs, 96 RBI, and 31 homers.

I'm not sure the RBI projection should change with this move. One problem with having elite hitters ahead of you is that they often drive themselves in before you get the chance. If I were moving anything upwards, it would be the runs scored and the home runs, but they would be minor changes, say +5 R and +2 HR.

Also benefiting from this would be those aforementioned names of Turner and Betts, they get yet another elite bat to drive them in. I'm not going to be surprised to see Trea Turner score 130 runs this year - it's going to be a ridiculous season in Los Angeles. Try to enjoy it, baseball fans!

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