RADIO
Happy Easter Sunday, RotoBallers! We had ourselves a decent day yesterday, again finishing 1-1. A bit frustrating to finish with these 1-1 days with plays in the article, but I ended up finishing 4-1, as I added the Giants' and Rockies' money lines, as well as tossing the Dodgers in a parlay with UFC fighter Martin Buday. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Sunday, April 17, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 7-6-1, -1.2 units
- Sides: 5-3, +0.58 units
- Totals: 2-3-1, -1.78 units
- Notes: Some tough luck again yesterday, as it seemed like a bunch of balls had solid exit velocity and launch angle, but ended up dying at the warning track in the Mets/Diamondbacks matchup. The two teams left 15 runners on base throughout the course of the game, just unable to hit in timely spots. I'm all about the process over results, and I can't be too upset about bad luck. While it may be frustrating, we'll hit more than we'll miss in that scenario, just have to keep pushing. I've also made a minor adjustment to my bet selection process, which I'll detail below. Onto today!
Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies
O/U: 11 | Moneyline: COL -126
CHC: Drew Smyly | COL: Austin Gomber
I'll start today's slate off out in Coors, where the Cubs and Rockies will close their series. It will be Austin Gomber taking on Drew Smyly in a matchup of southpaws. Smyly dazzled in his first outing of the season, allowing just three hits in five shutout frames against the Pirates on Tuesday. It will be Smyly's third start at Coors Field, where he's 0-1 with a 7.5 ERA in six innings. He'll look to build on his start from Tuesday, but he'll have some trouble against a Rockies lineup that ranks ninth in wRC+ against lefties (122).
Austin Gomber will take the ball for the home team Rockies. If you remember my articles from last year, I loved betting on Austin Gomber at home because he was so much better in Coors Field than on the road. His splits were drastic, as he finished with a 2.09 ERA in 47.1 innings at home, while he finished with a 6.22 ERA in 68 innings on the road. His first start of the season wasn't one to remember, as Gomber allowed three earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Rangers last Monday, but he'll look to bounce back this afternoon.
I was doing some backtesting some of my data yesterday and noticed that since Tuesday, April 12th, the team whose pitcher has the higher "matchup" rating in my model (that I've tracked), is 28-11 on the money line. Gomber has that advantage here by a considerable margin, which provides some extra value in the pick. FanDuel Sportsbook's implied odds for Colorado are at 55.75%, where my model gives the Rox a 58.66% chance of winning, with a final score of 5.92-5.45. I like the value here and have no problem backing a good Coors pitcher at home.
Pick: Colorado Rockies Money Line (-126) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: CLE +108
SF: Alex Wood | CLE: Aaron Civale
I'm once again going to be on the Giants in this series finale in Cleveland. Yesterday's game shouldn't have even been as close as it was honestly, with Cal Quantrill giving up a ton of hard contact that simply was hit right at fielders. A win is a win, though, and we'll be attacking Aaron Civale today. Civale got knocked around by Kansas City on Monday, surrendering four runs (two earned) on four hits in just 3.1 innings.
Alex Wood takes the ball for San Fran this afternoon after a solid start last week against San Diego. Wood got tagged for two earned runs on five hits in just 4.1 innings pitched, despite seemingly looking stronger than his stats indicate. While the Giants ended up losing that game, I think Wood and company are looking to bounce back this evening as they go for the early season sweep.
We have a massive margin between starter ratings in this one, as Alex Wood grades out to 65.76, while Aaron Civale grades out to 28.18. In a separate article (or possibly on Twitter), I'll explain in depth how I come up with my player grades, but typically all pitchers grade out to somewhere between 0-90, obviously with the higher-end being better. FanDuel Sportsbook's implied odds on the Giants as I'm typing this is also 55.75%, while my model gives the Giants a 59% chance to win this ballgame by a final score of 4.97-3.95. I'll continue to ride the hot hand of the Giants as long as the data backs it, as they've failed me minimally thus far.
Pick: San Francisco Giants Money Line (-126) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Happy Easter and good luck, RotoBallers! Enjoy your holiday with friends and family and enjoy your Sunday. I'll catch you guys on Thursday but make sure to check out these same articles Monday-Wednesday with @Mark_Kieffer!
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