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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Tuesday, April 19, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 4-5 overall on the season, up 0.726 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. As I get rolling, then we can increase how many units to bet per pick. MLB is a high variance sport on a given day, so it's important to be cautious early on.
Chicago Whitesox @ Cleveland Guardians
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: CLE -134
CHW: Jimmy Lambert| CLE: Shane Bieber
In this AL Central Matchup we have Jimmy Lambert on the mound against Shane Bieber and the Cleveland Guardians. In his first outing of the season, Lambert allowed two runs and struck out just one batter in three innings pitched. In that same outing, Lambert threw 49 pitches as he is not stretched out enough to pitch more of a starter's workload.
For Cleveland, Shane Bieber will take the mound in his third start of the season. So far, Bieber is 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA and nine strikeouts in 10 innings pitched. He went 72 pitches in his first start and 79 pitches in his second start.
Offensively, Cleveland is No. 4 in league in runs scored (48). They have a team ISO of .176 and team OBP of .345. It is still very early in the season but one thing is clear: Cleveland is hitting the ball well to start the season. Chicago is off to a slower start offensively as they are No. 21 in runs scored with just a .276 OBP.
Chicago and Cleveland have pretty even bullpens: Chicago's has a bullpen ERA of 3.79 while Cleveland's is 4.03. They are No. 19 and No. 20 in the league respectfully.
I see Cleveland winning this game; the have the edge with the starting pitching, they are currently hitting the ball better, and their bullpen is even with Chicago. I also think 7.5 runs is too low of a number. Bieber may do well with keeping the runs to just one or two, but Cleveland should put up runs against Lambert and this bullpen. For this game, I am making two picks.
Picks: Cleveland Moneyline (-134), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Over 7.5 (-105), PointsBet Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BOS -140
TOR: Yusei Kikuchi| BOS:Nathan Eovaldi
When I am picking sides, I tend to pick teams with low juice or underdogs. When I am looking at underdogs, I typically am looking for a team that is going into a good hitting environment. Toronto is about as dangerous as they come at the plate. Fenway park is a hitters park (No. 6 in runs last year), and Eovaldi is prone to having blowups and allowing runs.
Nathan Eovaldi has a career 4.19 ERA, and 4.08 SIERA. Boston is middle of the pack this season with their bullpen ERA of 3.48. Yusei Kikuchi has a career 4.98 ERA and 4.63 SIERA. Toronto has a 3.38 bullpen ERA.
Boston has a small edge with starting pitching, the bullpens are even, and both teams have scored 42 runs on the season. Boston should be favored in the game, but is there a scenario where Toronto wins? I'm willing to take Toronto at +125 to find out.
Pick: Toronto Moneyline (+125), BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 units
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: NYY -200
NYY: Gerrit Cole| DET: Tyler Alexander
Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees travel to Detroit to play Tyler Alexander and the Tigers. This season, Cole is 0-0 with a 5.59 ERA, and nine strikeouts in 9.2 innings pitched. He has a career SIERA of 3.26, and even in his two starts the SIERA is 3.43. This means that Cole is likely due for some regression and not continuing to allow several runs per start on the season.
Tyler Alexander is in a similar boat. He is also 0-0 and with a 5.06 ERA in his one start this season. He has a career SIERA of 4.29, so some improvement is due to come to him at some point, but he is still a pitcher that will allow some runs. Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Josh Donaldson crush lefties. Alexander is a career 1.47 HR/9 pitcher.
Expecting eight runs or less feels too low for me. The Yankees could very well crush Alexander and score eight runs by themselves over the course of the game. What I see playing out is New York scoring 4-5 runs on Alexander, Detroit scoring a run or two on Cole, and then it coming down to the bullpens and how many runs they allow. New York's bullpen is No. 2 with a 2.08 bullpen ERA while Detroit's is No. 10 with a 2.97 ERA, which is a surprise.
There is a good chance this game lands on eight runs, but I think it's half a run too small.
Pick: Over 8 (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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