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Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is Tuesday and we have a 15-game slate, all of the games starting at 6:35 p.m. Eastern or later. Last night we won Blue Jays vs. Red Sox under 8.5 (-109), but we lost Angels vs. Guardians over 8 runs. We are back at it today, hoping to have a profitable day!
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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, April 25, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 6-10 overall on the season, down 0.736 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. We will try to bounce back tonight! I am not going to do anything crazy to win it back, just stick with the process and hope it works out. One day at a time!
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 8.0 | Moneyline: PHI -160
COL: German Marquez | PHI: Zach Eflin
Zach Eflin and the Phillies take on German Marquez and the Colorado Rockies tonight. Eflin is 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA and 3.54 xFIP this season. Over the course of his career, Eflin has an xFIP of 4.33. Marquez on the other hand is 0-0 with a 4.67 ERA and an xFIP of 3.30. Marquez has a career xFIP of 3.61. You could make the argument, especially away from Coors Field, that the Rockies have the upper hand in starting pitching tonight.
On the season so far, Colorado has scored 71 runs, which is No. 9 in the league. Philadelphia has scored 64 runs (No. 13). Colorado offensively has the edge in ISO (.156 vs. .154), OBP (.333 vs. .320), and SLG (.426 vs. .406). The teams are close offensively with a small edge to Colorado here as well.
An area Philadelphia has an edge of Colorado is bullpen ERA. Colorado has a bullpen ERA of 4.50 (last), while Philadelphia has a bullpen ERA of 4.34 (No. 25).
When breaking down these stats, this game feels like a coin flip or close to a coin flip with Philadelphia having possibly a slight edge due to being the home team. A -160 favorite is a 61.54% win probability. This does not feel like a game that Philadelphia has a 60%+ chance of winning. Because of the volatile nature of the game, I would recommend making two small bets: one for Colorado Moneyline in the first five innings, and then another bet for Colorado to win the game.
Picks: Colorado Moneyline F5 (+120), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.25 Units
Colorado Moneyline (+152), Wynn Bet Sportsbook, 0.25 Units
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIN -132
DET: Eduardo Rodriguez | MIN: Chris Paddack
Next up is Chris Paddack and the Minnesota Twins vs. Eduardo Rodriguez and the Detroit Tigers. Paddack is 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA and 3.16 xFIP. Paddack has a career xFIP of 3.91. Rodriguez is 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA and 4.64 xFIP with a career 4.05 xFIP. This looks to be a pretty even matchup between these two pitchers.
Offensively, Minnesota is No. 20 in runs scored while Detroit is No. 28. The teams are very close in OBP (Detroit: .316, Minnesota: .309). The big discrepancy is in ISO. Minnesota has an ISO of .135 (No. 18) while Detroit's is .093 (No. 28). Either way, offensively neither of these teams have gotten going outside of a few individuals and both teams leave some room to be desired with their ability to score. Minnesota strikes out a lot (25.5% strikeout rate, No. 3) while Detroit is average (23.5%, No. 14).
Another big discrepancy is the bullpen and this is where I think Detroit will ultimately win this game. Detroit's bullpen ERA is 2.30 (No. 3) while Minnesota's is 4.03 (No. 21). I see a game in which it is close in the 5th or 6th inning, and when the game gets turned over to the bullpen, Detroit has its edge and wins the game. If you like Minnesota, I would advise on an F5 bet instead of full-game due to their shaky bullpen.
Pick: Detroit Moneyline (+125), BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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