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Welcome back, RotoBallers! I hope you enjoyed these first two days of baseball, and now we're back today with a massive 15 game slate. We had a great day yesterday, going 2-0 on our bets. As a handicapper, I believe that you're only as good as your next bet, and today is another day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening weekend and throughout the season as a whole. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Saturday, April 9, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 3-1, +1.26 units
- Sides: 3-1, +1.26 units
- Totals: 0-0
- Notes: This is where I will usually recap my results from the last day I made picks.
Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SF -152
MIA: Pablo Lopez | SF: Carlos Rodon
I'll start off today's slate running it back with another matchup between Miami and San Francisco. As the total indicates, it could be another pitcher's duel between Pablo Lopez taking the pill for the Marlins and the newly acquired Carlos Rodon on the mound for the Giants.
Pablo Lopez had a great 2021 season where he logged a 3.07 ERA and a 3.32 xFIP across 20 starts. The Venezuelan hurler struggled this spring, though, posting a 10.13 ERA in eight innings across three starts. He'll be squaring off against Carlos Rodon, the Giants' big offseason acquisition. Rodon signed a two-year, $44 million contract after posting a 2.37 ERA and 3.17 xFIP across 24 starts in a breakout campaign last season.
FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the Giants at -152 in this one, giving them implied odds of 60.32%. My model gives the Giants a 68% chance of winning with a final score of 4.39-3.14, creating some nice expected value (+7.68%). Normally I'd fade a pitcher like Lopez, but with his spring numbers as well as the Giants' ability to put the ball in play and bounce back from a Camilo Doval blown save yesterday, I'll back them to get the series win this afternoon.
Pick: San Francisco Giants ML (-152) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: KC -122
CLE: Zach Plesac | KC: Brad Keller
The Indians and Royals had a day off yesterday following an Opening Day matchup where Kansas City snuck out a 3-1 victory thanks to some late-game heroics from Bobby Witt Jr. They'll square off again with Zach Plesac taking the ball for Cleveland against Kansas City's Brad Keller.
Zach Plesac comes into his first 2022 start after an up and down 2021 campaign where he finished with a 4.67 ERA and 4.77 xFIP across 25 starts. Plesac made three starts against the Royals last season, going 1-0 with a 4.24 in 17 innings. On the other side, Brad Keller looks to bounce back from his 2021 season where he finished with a 5.39 ERA and a 4.57 xFIP. His single start against the Indians was a dazzling one, as he threw 7.2 shutout innings in Cleveland on July 7th.
I'll be looking at the over in this game, despite these teams scoring just four runs in their matchup on Thursday. It was cold, raining, and the wind was whipping all over the place, creating a tough hitting environment. We should have some better hitting weather tonight, with temps in the 60s and the wind blowing out to left (5mph). My model gives this game a 59.61% chance of going over and finishing at 9.83 runs, well above the Vegas odds at 8.5 of 53.28%, giving us a +6.34% expected value. I don't particularly love taking game totals this early in the season, but I can't pass up the value here.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-114), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great MLB analysis during the break and more DFS and betting content later in the week!
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