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Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Thursday, May 12, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 17-19-1, -7.33 units
- Sides: 13-11, -1.96 units
- Totals: 4-8-1, -2.37 units
- Notes:
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: WSH +132
NYM: Taijuan Walker | WSH: Joan Adon
I'll head to the nation's capital as the Mets and Nationals square off for an afternoon showdown. The Mets will send Taijuan Walker to the hill, his first start against a team that isn't the Phillies this season. He'll come into this one without a decision, accompanied by a 4.91 ERA and 4.23 xFIP. He'll take on a Nats lineup that ranks 9th in OPS, 9th in wOBA, and 15th in wRC+ against right-handers.
On the other side of the matchup, the Nats will send Joan Adon to the mound. Adon comes into this one 0-3 with an 8.31 ERA and 4.90 xFIP. The Mets have been seeing right-handed pitching well this season, ranking third in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against righties.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the total at 8.5 as I'm typing this. My model gives the over a 57.36% chance of hitting, with the total finishing at 10.04. Neither pitcher is super impressive here, and while the Mets haven't seen much of Adon, the Nationals have hit Walker well. The over is 4-0 in Walker's last four road starts, and I like the value we're getting here.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-122) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: PIT -142
CIN: Connor Overton | PIT: JT Brubaker
We'll head to Pittsburgh for our second pick of the day, with Cincinnati running out Connor Overton to the mound. Overton has been solid this season, coming into this one 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA and a 3.33 xFIP. He'll take on a Pirates lineup that just took two of three from the Dodgers, but rank just 21st in OPS, 22nd in wOBA, and 21st in wRC+. This is a rematch of Saturday's game, where the Reds won 9-2. Overton went 5.1 innings allowing two runs on six hits with four strikeouts.
On the other side, the Pirates will send JT Brubaker to the mound. He comes into this one 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA and 4.17 xFIP. He was impressive in his last start against Cincinnati, tossing five innings of three-hit ball, allowing two runs while striking out nine. He didn't get the loss in that outing, but it was the first the Pirates' first loss in a Brubaker start since April 19th.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Pirates at -142, good for 58.67% implied odds. My model gives the Pirates a 59.49% chance of winning, so while we're not getting great value here, there is some value. The Pirates also have the starting pitching, pitch type data, and player rating advantages according to my model. The Pirates are hot and have dominated against Cincinnati at home, winning 24 of their last 34 matchups. I'll take the home favorites in this one.
Pick: Pirates Money Line (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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