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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, May 27, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 25-27-1, -6.9 units
- Sides: 19-17, -5.13 units
- Totals: 5-10-1, -3.47 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Angels
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: LAA +100
TOR: Alek Manoah | LAA: Chase Silseth
I'll head to LA for our first game tonight as the Blue Jays and Angels begin Game 2 of their four-game weekend set. The Blue Jays will send Alek Manoah to the mound, who comes into this one 5-1 with a 1.62 ERA. Manoah's xFIP does show signs of potential regression at 3.77, and it is reasonable to think it may come against the Angels. My model disagrees though, projecting Manoah to have a 3.25 xFIP in this one, and the projected Angels lineup to have just a 29.88% hard-contact rate.
The Angels will send Chase Silseth to the mound, who comes into this one 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA. Like Manoah, Silseth's 3.72 xFIP does show signs of regression. My model projects Silseth to regress quite a bit tonight, with a projected 4.05 xFIP against a Blue Jays lineup that knocked Shohei Ohtani around for five earned runs in just six innings. While Silseth is capable of keeping the ball on the ground, my model also projects the Blue Jays to log a 32.22% hard-contact rate tonight.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Blue Jays at -118, both on the full game and first five money line. I'll be leaving the bullpens out of it tonight, going with the First 5. I know that Silseth has been pitching well, but it's clear that the Blue Jays have the pitching advantage in this one. I may be over-optimistic on the Blue Jays following their win last night, but my model gives them a 60.39% chance of winning tonight. I'll fade a potential bullpen blowup after Toronto's arm barn had to go four innings last night, and play it safe here.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 Money Line (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Mariners
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SEA +172
HOU: Justin Verlander | SEA: Chris Flexen
We'll head to Seattle for the second game of the night as the Astros and Mariners begin a weekend set. The Astros will send Justin Verlander to the mound, who comes into this one 6-1 with a 1.22 ERA. While his 3.27 xFIP does show that he'll regress, and while that may come today my model projects just a 3.12 xFIP for him in this one. The Mariners don't project well against Verlander either, with just a .394 projected wOBA + ISO and a 25.35% projected hard-contact rate tonight.
The Mariners will send Chris Flexen to the mound tonight. He comes into this one 1-6 with a 4.98 ERA, with an xFIP pretty on-par with his ERA at 4.83. My model projects tonight's start for Flexen to be on track with his season numbers, with a projected 4.89 xFIP against an Astros offense who are at the top of the slate with a projected .545 wOBA + ISO and 32.08% hard-contact rate.
FanDuel Sportsbook has both the full game money line and first five money line pretty juiced, coming in at -205 and -200 as I'm writing this, respectively. The Mariners also have a slight bullpen advantage here, so rather than taking the full-game run line, I'll grab the first five -0.5 at -140. Verlander has been back in his dominant form post-injury, and Flexen has yet to beat the Houston in his career, coming into this one 0-5 with a 6.16 ERA against the Astros. As I'm writing this, this is my favorite play of the night, but I'll stick with just one unit for now.
Pick: Astros F5 -0.5 (-140) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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