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Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, June 22, 2022.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 24-34-4 overall on the season, down 3.6 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. But it's now June and now I am opening things up a bit and trying to make more than just a couple of bets a day.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Orioles
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BAL -145
WSN: Patrick Corbin| BAL: Tyler Wells
Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals face off against Tyler Wells and the Baltimore Orioles in this regional matchup. Generally, these are pitchers that cause us to pick the other side of the game, but what about when these two face each other? Patrick Corbin has a 4.47 SIERA, a 17% strikeout rate, and an 8.1% walk rate. Tyler Wells has a 4.72 SIERA, a 15.1% strikeout rate, and a 5% walk rate. These starting pitchers are dead even, with a slight edge to Patrick Corbin as he has the better SIERA than Wells.
As far as offenses go, Baltimore has scored the 23rd-most runs in the league. They are also 18th in ISO and 24th in OBP. Overall they are not a great offense. Washington has scored the 17th-most runs in the league. They are 28th in ISO and tied for 11th in OBP. Washington does a better job of getting on base; they struggle to score runs. Because they have scored more than Baltimore and have a better on-base percentage, they have the edge here as well.
With bullpens, Baltimore has the 20th-best SIERA at 3.75 while Washington's is 22nd at 3.87. All in all very close. A slight edge goes to Baltimore but these bullpens are virtually the same.
We have starting pitchers that are virtually the same, bullpens that are virtually the same, and two below-average offenses. In a game like this, I am going to favor any kind of an underdog if there are decent plus odds. In this case, there is +130 to Washington and that is my bet today.
Pick: Washington Moneyline (+130), DraftKings Sportsbook 0.5 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ Red Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BOS -130
DET: Tarik Skubal| BOS: Michael Wacha
Detroit and Boston play their final game of a series that was interesting while Detroit tries to avoid getting swept. The Tigers have their best pitcher on the mound, Tarik Skubal, going today. Skubal has a 3.10 SIERA, a 26.7% strikeout rate, and a 4.7% walk rate. Wacha has a 4.50 SIERA, a 17.4% strikeout rate, and a 7.2% walk rate. Detroit clearly has the advantage here with the starting pitching.
With the bullpens, Detroit has a 3.59 SIERA which is 13th best in baseball. Boston's is 3.60 which is tied for 14th best. Basically, these bullpen units are performing similarly.
As far as offenses go, on the season Boston is way better. If you look at the stats over the last week or so, Detroit has been performing closer to average with their offensive metrics. At the end of the day, Boston has the superior lineup, no question.
The issue for me, is the starting pitching is so lopsided that while Boston has the better lineup, they are batting to a potential Cy Young winner one day. And while Detroit is average at best offensively, they are pitching to one of the worst pitchers on the slate, who does not strike out many batters.
I am going to go back to Detroit here and also take under the total as this series has been lower scoring than anticipated with one really good pitcher and two good bullpens.
Pick: Detroit Moneyline (+120), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units; UNDER 8.5 Runs (+100), PointsBet Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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