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Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, June 20, 2022.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 23-32-4 overall on the season, down 3.08 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. But it's now June and now I am opening things up a bit and trying to make more than just a couple of bets a day.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Pirates
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CHC -110
CHC: Caleb Kilian| PIT: JT Brubaker
The Chicago Cubs travel to Pittsburgh to start a series with the Pirates today. For Chicago, they have a young prospect, Caleb Kilian, on the mound. While he pitched well in the minors, he has struggled in the big leagues. He has a SIERA of 6.21, a 14.6% strikeout rate, and a 17.1% walk rate. If he is going to have success in the big leagues, he will need to improve on his control.
On the other side, Pittsburgh is starting JT Brubaker. Brubaker has a 4.19 SIERA, a 22.3% strikeout rate, and a 9.6% walk rate. Pittsburgh has the edge with starting pitching tonight.
Offensively, the Cubs have scored the eighth-fewest runs, have the 16th-highest ISO, and have the 13th-best OBP. Pittsburgh has scored the third-fewest runs, they have the sixth-lowest ISO, and have the third-lowest OBP. Chicago has the better offense in this one, however, the game is being played in a pitcher's park which will neutralize their advantage somewhat.
As far as bullpens go, Pittsburgh has the advantage here. Chicago has a 4.72 bullpen ERA, the second-highest in all of baseball. Pittsburgh's bullpen ERA is 4.15, so while it isn't anything elite, it still is better than Chicago.
Pick: Pittsburgh Moneyline (-105), FoxBet Sportsbook 0.5 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ Red Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BOS -185
DET: Alex Faedo | BOS: Josh Winckowski
Detroit travels to Fenway Park to start a new series with Boston. We have an interesting pitching matchup here. For Detroit, Alex Faedo will start. He has a 4.40 SIERA, 19.3% strikeout rate, and a 7.0% walk rate. He is pitching right in line with his surface stats. For Boston, Josh Winckowski gets the nod. He only has eight major league innings pitched for his career, but his numbers are not that different from Faedo's: a 4.33 SIERA, an 18.4% strikeout rate, and a 10.5% walk rate. The thing to be careful about here is that it is a small sample size. Either way, on paper this starting pitching matchup is close.
Offensively, Boston is the much better team on the season, it isn't even close. Detroit ranks at the bottom or near the bottom in almost every offensive category. Detroit recently has been hitting better though. They have Riley Greene up, Javier Baez is starting to hit home runs and steal bases, they are hitting the ball well. They scored 14 runs on Saturday and seven runs on Sunday. It isn't a long streak or anything but this could be them turning the corner somewhat. It also could be just a blip outlier in a long season and time will tell which is true.
As far as bullpens go, Detroit has the edge. Their bullpen ERA is 3.23, the seventh-best in all of baseball. Boston's is 3.91, which is close to the middle of the league.
The starting pitchers here are not good. This is a game I could see going over nine runs. Also because the odds are so favorable, I don't mind the Detroit Moneyline either.
Pick: Detroit Moneyline (+165), Caesar's Sportsbook, 0.5 units; Over 9.0 Runs (-125), BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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