Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (6/29/22)

2 years ago by Mark Kieffer

It's Wednesday, June 29th and we have 15 major league baseball games being played all throughout the day. We have eight games during the daytime and then seven games happening in the evening. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, June 29, 2022.

This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Mariners

O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SEA -134
BAL: Austin Voth| SEA: Chris Flexen

In Seattle, Austin Voth and Chris Flexen face off this afternoon. Despite Voth's 7.81 ERA, he actually has the better underlying metrics among the two pitchers. Voth has a 3.78 SIERA, 21.1% strikeout rate, and a 7.5% walk rate. On the other side, Chris Flexen has a 4.91 SIERA, 16.5% strikeout rate, and an 8.1% walk rate. Voth has only started two games, so it will be interesting to see how he fares today. Will his surface stats start to improve or will his underlying metrics get worse? Either way, I am willing to say at this moment Baltimore could have the edge with starting pitching.

Offensively, Baltimore has an edge too. They are 21st in runs scored while Seattle is 25th. With OBP, Seattle is 14th while Baltimore is 27th. With ISO, Baltimore is 15th while Seattle is 17th. Baltimore has also been a different team this month. Looking at the last 30 days, Baltimore is 10th in runs scored (Seattle is 25th) and 4th in ISO (Seattle is 21st).

Seattle does have the better bullpen with a 3.85 ERA and 3.25 SIERA while Baltimore's is a 3.90 ERA with a 3.71 SIERA. If Seattle can take the lead, they will have the edge in holding it.

Despite all of that, I like Baltimore here. This is the best they have played in five years, their offense has come to life this month, and I think they can get to Chris Flexen and score runs. At +120, I'm willing to take a stab at Baltimore.

Pick: Baltimore Moneyline (+120), DraftKings Sportsbook 0.5 units

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Reds @ Cubs

O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CHC -134
CIN: Hunter Greene| CHC: Justin Steele

This matchup has some similarities to the other game I weighed in on. Hunter Greene has worse surface stats than Justin Steele with a 5.66 ERA while Steele has a 4.59 ERA. The metrics tell a different story as Greene has a 3.77 SIERA and a 19% K-BB%. Steele has a 4.19 SIERA and an 11.2% K-BB%.Greene misses more bats with a 28.9% strikeout rate too. The edge is going to go to Cincinnati here.

Offensively these teams are similar. Cincinnati is 17th in runs scored, and Chicago is 19th. Cincinnati is 21st in ISO, and Chicago is 19th. The only significant difference is Chicago is 10th in OBP while Cincinnati is 20th. I'd say this is a toss-up offensively today.

As far as bullpens go, Chicago has a huge edge. The Cubs have a 3.58 ERA and 3.27 SIERA while Cincinnati has a 4.56 ERA and 3.98 SIERA. If Chicago takes the lead here, they have a better chance of holding onto it. Additionally, if Cincinnati has the lead, they are at great risk of blowing the lead. Because I do not trust the bullpen of Cincinnati here, I am interested in the first five innings Moneyline while the starters are in. Cincinnati can get to Steele and score some runs, and Greene misses a lot of bats to an offense that is average at best. I'll take the Reds F5.

I also see runs with this game. Both pitchers have a SIERA around four and Cincinnati's bullpen is bad. I'll take over eight runs too.

Pick: Reds F5 Moneyline (+150) BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.5 units; OVER 8 Runs (+100) BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 units.

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!

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