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Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, June 4, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 29-31-1, -8.58 units
- Sides: 22-20, -6.59 units
- Totals: 6-11-1, -3.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Orioles
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: BAL +108
CLE: Triston McKenzie | BAL: Tyler Wells
I'll head out to Baltimore for our first play of the day. Now, if you caught my tweet I actually pulled the Giants' First Five money line from last night's game in favor of the Guardians' full game money line. It was no harm, no foul if you didn't see my tweet, as both bets hit regardless. Nevertheless, I'll be backing the Guardians once again behind Triston McKenzie (3-4, 2.65 ERA) against Tyler Wells (2-4, 3.71 ERA). We backed McKenzie last Sunday, where he tossed 7.2 innings allowing just two runs in a losing effort, so let's hope for a better result today.
McKenzie has been pitching extremely well of late. He's got a 0.86 WHIP on the season, and that number has dropped down to just 0.65 in his last three starts. While he is due for regression, given his 4.11 xFIP, I don't expect that today from Baltimore despite their recent offensive success. I do expect regression from Tyler Wells though, who comes into this one with a 4.47 xFIP, against Cleveland's lineup which has seemed to be rolling all season. Even if the Orioles end up getting the upper hand on McKenzie early, I expect the Guardians' offense and bullpen to help them take this one.
Fanduel Sportsbook is giving the Guardians -126, which is why I really like them in this spot. My model gives Cleveland a 63.45% chance of winning, while FanDuel has their implied odds at 55.75%. I'll ride the hot hand of McKenzie here and hope that he continues his solid form, and I'll back the Guardians who have won 19 of their last 26 against the O's.
Pick: Guardians Money Line (-126) FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Rockies
O/U: 11.5 | Moneyline: COL +138
ATL: Spencer Strider | COL: Kyle Freeland
We'll head out to Coors for our second play of the day. The Braves have taken the first two games of this series, winning 13-6 on Thursday and 3-1 last night. The Rockies' bullpen was spent coming into this series, and after using two relievers on Thursday and five relievers last night in an extra-innings battle, I can't imagine things are much better in their arm barn. For that reason, I'll be on the Braves this evening.
Spencer Strider (1-2, 3.45 ERA) will be making a spot-start for Atlanta today. Strider struggled in his first start of the season, a 6-2 defeat to Arizona where he allowed five earned runs in 4.1 innings. He should show some positive regression though, coming into this one with a 1.89 FIP and 2.66 xFIP. He'll be taking on Kyle Freeland (1-5, 4.96 ERA) and the Rockies. Freeland has been somewhat unlucky, but still not great, given his 4.15 FIP and 4.39 xFIP. Coors notwithstanding, I project the Braves' offense to have a .566 wOBA + ISO and 36.53% hard-contact rate, both among the highest on the slate.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Braves at -164, which is a bit juiced, but it doesn't bother me for reasons I mentioned earlier regarding the Rockies bullpen. Colorado will likely have to go to the bullpen early, given the Braves' recent success against left-handed pitching, winning their last seven games against a southpaw starter. They've also won six straight games against a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.3 (Freeland's sits at 1.56 coming tonight). I'll ride the Braves to get the W and head into Sunday's finale looking for a sweep.
Pick: Braves Money Line (-164) FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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