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Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, June 6, 2022.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 19-28-2 overall on the season, down 3.25 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. But it's now June and now I am opening things up a bit and trying to make more than just two bets a day. Last week, I reduced the units I was down by 1/4!
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Guardians
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CLE -119
TEX: Jon Gray | CLE: Cal Quantrill
Although Cal Quantrill has a nice-looking 3.52 ERA, his 5.01 SIERA tells a different story. Quantrill has the lowest strikeout rate on the slate (15.1%) and the highest SIERA on the slate. Eventually, he is going to have some regression and allow a bunch of runs. Gray, on the other hand, has a 26% strikeout rate and a 3.64 SIERA. Texas has the edge when it comes to starting pitching.
With these teams, the bullpens are pretty even. Texas has a 3.52 bullpen ERA while Cleveland has a 3.09 bullpen ERA. If Quantrill has a rough game, the bullpens may not matter as much though. Texas had to use their better options in the bullpen on Sunday, and have used Joe Barlow each of the last two days. This Texas bullpen could be tired.
Offensively, these teams have not been great either. Cleveland is 17th in runs scored while Texas is 20th. Over Memorial Day weekend, Texas showed some upside offensively against Oakland and Tampa Bay before going back to scoring just a few runs each game.
This game is a coin flip and we are getting coin flip odds with the Moneyline. Quantrill is a pitcher that will struggle at some point this season and I do not mind taking +100 to see if tonight will be the night it happens. I like Texas to score some runs and hopefully Cleveland can put up a few as well against Gray and a potentially tired or weaker bullpen.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (+100), WynnBet Sportsbook, 0.5 units, OVER 8.5 Runs (+100), Caesar's Sportsbook, 0.5 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Angels
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: LAA -128
BOS: Michael Wacha | LAA: Noah Syndergaard
If you asked me a few years ago, what I thought about a Michael Wacha and Noah Syndergaard matchup, I would have said Syndergaard was better by a landslide. But in 2022? These guys are...eerily similar as far as their stats and metrics go.
Wacha has a 4.69 SIERA, a 16.8% strikeout rate, an 8.7% walk rate, and allows 0.89 HR/9. Syndergaard has a 4.22 SIERA, a 15.9% strikeout rate, a 5.3% walk rate, and allows 0.89 HR/9. A small edge goes to Syndergaard for a lower walk rate and the lower SIERA but both of these pitchers are average to below-average right now.
Offensively both teams are similar too. Boston has scored the most runs in the American League while the Angels have scored the third-most in the American League. The teams' on-base percentages and ISOs are virtually the same. The main difference is that the Angels steal more bases and hit more home runs, while Boston has a significantly higher batting average.
With the bullpens, Boston has the better bullpen but they are missing Matt Barnes and Hansel Robles. The Angels' bullpen ERA is seventh-worst in baseball while Boston's bullpen ERA is the 15th highest in baseball -- or average.
This game is also a coin flip in which the odds are implying a 47.6% chance that Boston wins. This difference means this is a good bet if the odds really are 50-50 or if Boston is supposed to be favored. This is also a game that should feature some runs with both starters having high SIERAs and the bullpens being average to below average, going up against two of the best offenses in the American League.
Pick: Boston Moneyline (+110), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units; OVER 8.5 Runs (+110), PointsBet Sportsbook, 0.5 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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