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Who thought it was a good idea to only have six games scheduled yesterday? After the Rangers and Guardians got rained out, we didn't have much in the way of baseball action on Monday, but that just sets up the intrigue for an exciting day today.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, June 7th, 2022, for the 16-game 3:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. With an action-packed slate, there are a lot of games to keep a close eye on. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: DET -115
DET: Tarik Skubal | PIT: Jose Quintana
After finishing with a winning record after the month of April last year, the Tigers certainly felt they were ready to compete for a playoff spot, signing shortstop Javier Baez and starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez for a combined $217 million this past offseason. Unfortunately, with a 21-33 record, things have not gone as planned for them, but they aren't without any shining rays of optimism.
That bright spot would be starter Tarik Skubal, who has quickly ascended to not only being the ace on this pitching staff but one of the better young pitchers in all of baseball. In ten starts this season, the 25-year-old has a 2.97 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) that ranks sixth amongst qualified starters, as well as a 22.6% K-BB ratio that ranks seventh. Oh, and per Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), he's been the second-most valuable pitcher in all of baseball. Simply put, he's been fantastic.
The best part? This all stems from legitimate changes that Skubal has made to his pitch mix. Last season, home runs (2.11 HR/9) were a significant problem for him, stemming from a four-seam fastball that got hit very hard. Thus, he has adjusted accordingly:
Less fastballs, with more sliders and sinkers? That's the recipe for more ground balls, which Skubal has been able to induce at a high level (48.4% GB) this season. Essentially, he took his biggest weakness and turned it into a strength, and when that's the case, you're going to be well set up. Against a Pirates offense in the bottom-five in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) for the season, that should continue.
Detroit's offense (last in wRC+) hasn't exactly impressed this season, and they now have to face a pitcher with a 2.32 ERA. On the contrary, they're also facing a pitcher in Jose Quintana with a 4.26 SIERA and just an 11% K-BB, which certainly doesn't point to him performing at the level (results-wise) that he has so far this season. Plus, in terms of bullpen quality, Detroit (16th in SIERA) also holds the edge against Pittsburgh (26th), giving them the all-around superior pitching here, while both offenses haven't performed well. In that case, how could you not side with them as a slight favorite?
Pick: Detroit ML (-115), BETMGM
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIL -114
PHI: Ranger Suarez | MIL: Jason Alexander
Don't look now, but the Phillies have yet to lose since making a managerial change! Of course, those two aspects aren't correlated at all, and what you'd expect given that they are a very talented team that was simply under-performing, but they'll keep the streak going for at least one more day.
Injuries have decimated the Brewers' rotation, and as a result, they'll turn to Jason Alexander to stick in their rotation for the meantime. While he has demonstrated the ability to induce ground balls at an exceptional level in the minors, he also only struck out 17.5% of the batters he faced as a 29-year-old in Triple-A, while ZiPs projections go as far as to project him for a 5.25 ERA moving forward.
The Phillies, for what it's worth, rank in the bottom-ten in ground-ball rate, and hit the ball extra hard — they rank 7th in hard-hit rate and 9th in barrel rate. The quality of contact is tremendous, it's just about making enough contact. Luckily for them, that shouldn't be an issue against Alexander, who attempts to induce as much contact as possible.
The Brewers, meanwhile, have the third-lowest wRC+ against lefties this season. While it has been a tough season for Ranger Suarez overall, he has looked much better with a 3.88 SIERA in that span, despite the fact he has had to face some very talented (Dodgers twice, Giants, Braves, Mariners) lineups during that span. As a slight underdog here, it's hard not to side with the better pitcher and better offense, which generally is the formula for success. Now, let's just pray for the bullpen to not do ... well, normal Philly bullpen things.
Pick: Philadelphia Moneyline (-104), FanDuel Sportsbook
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BAL -110
CHC: Keegan Thompson | BAL: Kyle Bradish
Once upon a time, these were two of the better teams in baseball. Now? Not so much; the teams are a combined 19 games under .500. That being said, why not add some excitement here.
For context, the Cubs only have three players in their lineup projected to be league-average or better from THE BAT X. The Orioles, meanwhile, have the sixth-worst wRC+ this season. Simply put, these are two offenses you should fade, and we have the perfect opportunity here.
Neither of these pitchers may pop off as super exciting, but both offer a strong layer of intrigue. Cubs starter Keegan Thompson has performed well (3.69 SIERA) in multi-inning stints, hasn't lost any velocity since transitioning to the rotation and induces plenty of ground balls (52.5% GB). On the other hand, Orioles starter Kyle Bradish misses plenty of bats (11.6% swinging-strike rate), doesn't walk many hitters (7.6% BB), and is suffering from very poor batted-ball luck with a .368 batting average on balls in play allowed (BABIP) and a 24.2% home run/fly ball rate allowed.
Oriole Park has been the second-least friendly ballpark for home runs this season, per Baseball Savant. After all, the change in dimensions makes it nearly impossible for a right-handed hitter to hit a home run. Nine runs is a lot for two subpar offenses, and with both pitchers offering reasons to believe they'll succeed, the under looks very enticing here. Until the baseball changes again, ride with those under.
Pick: Chicago Baltimore Under 9 (-110), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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