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We are officially over two months into the MLB season. Right now, we're starting to see some division races take shape while teams are starting to feel the pressure. Multiple managerial changes have already been made. Just remember, the Nationals (2019) and Braves (2021) certainly weren't seen as anything close to World Series contenders at this time in those seasons. Anything can truly happen in baseball, but that is what makes it so special.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, June 9th, 2022, for the 11-game 12:35 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Today features fewer games than normal, but there are still some interesting games to break down. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIA -127
WSH: Stephen Strasburg | MIA: Trevor Rogers
Welcome back, Stephen Strasburg!
Once upon a time, Strasburg, a former #1 overall pick, was one of the league's best pitchers and won the World Series MVP in 2019. Since then he has managed to pitch just 26.2 innings and is just now making his anticipated debut. Is there anything left in the tank? There is reason to be skeptical.
Since 2019, Strasburg's average fastball velocity is down under 92 MPH, which is two ticks under where he was in 2019 (93.9). All told, he mustered just a 96.5 pitching+ from Eno Sarris' predictive pitching+ model, and we shouldn't expect a bounce-back in his first MLB game in over a year. The Marlins have the fourth-best weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this season, while Strasburg, a pitch-to-contact pitcher, now has to play behind the defense with the third-worst defense, based on Outs Above Average (OAA). Simply put, expect Miami to come out firing here.
It has been a rough season for Trevor Rogers, but it is worth noting that before a stint at Coors, he did have a swinging strike count in the double-digits in three straight starts. He now gets to face the offense with the least success (-19.1 runs above average) against changeups, as well as a bottom-five team against sliders (-18.9 runs above average). That's great news for Rogers since that is roughly half of his pitch mix and the Nationals overall have the lowest isolated power (ISO) against lefties this season.
The Marlins have the pitcher with still significantly more upside and better projections, a far superior offense and defense, as well as the better performing bullpen. At reasonable odds, it's hard not to like Miami here. Plus, they're a fun team! There are plenty of reasons to watch them – who doesn't love Jazz Chisholm Jr. – but consider a nice Marlins win the icing on the cake.
Pick: Miami ML (-127), WynnBet Sportsbook
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Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: LAA- 125
BOS: Nick Pivetta | LAA: Shohei Ohtani
The Angels have to win at some point, right? I mean, they have gotten to the desperate times of relying on Nickleback to break them out of their slump. Sadly, that did not do the trick to break them out of a 13-game skid that has led to manager Joe Maddon being fired. It also looks like we'll be without Mike Trout in the playoffs once again.
At least for one day, a ray of hope should shine in Anaheim. Why? Well, it's Shohei day! Although his 3.99 ERA may not reflect it, Shohei Ohtani has been of the best pitchers in baseball. In nine starts, he has an absurd 27.4% K-BB, a 2.61 skill interactive ERA (SIERA), as well as a dominant 15.1% swinging-strike rate and 32.1% called-strike whiff rate. Name a pitching metric and the chances are that Ohtani is at the top of that list. Notably, he continues to sit 2 MPH (97.6 MPH in his last start) harder with his fastball than last year and leaning more on his elite slider (11.8 runs above average last year), which has helped him take another step.
On the other hand, Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta is an opposite case study to Ohtani; while his ERA (3.50) looks strong on the surface, he is also benefiting from a very low .252 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and 8.3% home run/fly ball rate. What better spot for natural regression to take place than against a still talented lineup and in the fourth-most friendly ballpark for hitters, per Baseball Savant?
It's been a rough go for the Angels, but unless they simply are not going to win again, the talent will win out at some point. Given their struggles, the immense pitching advantage they have here appears to be underpriced, which needs to be taken advantage of. Regardless of what walk-off songs they use as they look to break out of their slump, it's time to ride the halo!
Pick: Angels Moneyline (-125), DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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