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Happy Saturday and happy July, RotoBallers! The weekend is finally here. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, July 2, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 37-44-2, -15.79 units
- Sides: 29-31-1, -12.45 units
- Totals: 7-13-1, -5.04 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Twins
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIN -225
BAL: Jordan Lyles | MIN: Sonny Gray
After going 1-0 with a push yesterday, I'll head out to Minnesota today while hoping to keep the momentum going. The Twins will send Sonny Gray (4-1, 2.17 ERA) to the mound, who's been pitching well of late, going 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts. He's maintained a 3.31 xFIP on the year despite allowing 32.8% hard contact. He projects well against the Orioles today, who rank in the bottom third of the Majors in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. I have Gray graded to a 42.17 rating today.
Baltimore on the other hand will send Jordan Lyles (4-7, 4.94 ERA) to the mound. He's been pitching slightly better of late, going 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA across his last three starts. He should be due for some regression, given his 4.38 xFIP, but it's a tough ask against the Twins lineup. The Twins rank third in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Due to this, Lyles grades out to just a 29.81 rating.
While the Twins' full-game money line is a bit too pricey for me, I'll be looking at them -0.5 in the first five innings. My full game projections give them a 65.19% chance of winning, by a final score of 5.14-4.02. They have a significant lineup and starting pitching advantage here, so I hope they are able to ride the momentum of last night's walk-off win by getting up early on Lyles.
Pick: Twins -0.5 (-150) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Cubs
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: CHC +122
BOS: Josh Winckowski | CHC: Alec Mills
I'll go out to The Windy City for the second play of the day as the Red Sox and Cubs continue their series following Chicago's 6-5 victory yesterday. I'll be looking for the Red Sox to bounce back tonight, behind Josh Winckowski (3-1, 3.60 ERA). After a rough first start, Winckowski has been dealing of late, going 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts. He brings in a 3.99 xFIP and just a 26.9% hard contact rate. Although the Cubs have been somewhat decent offensively, ranking in the upper-mid tier in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching, I grade Winckowski to a 48.77 rating this evening.
This isn't as much of a bet on Josh Winckowski as it is a bet against Alec Mills (0-1, 9.87 ERA). Mills has made just one start on the year, a 2.2 inning, five-earned run performance against the Cardinals last Sunday, and I don't project him to be much better today. He brings a 5.66 xFIP and 43.9% hard contact rate into this start, and it should be "bombs away" for a Red Sox lineup that ranks top ten in both OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitching. Mills grades out to a 19.87 rating, by far the worst on the slate and giving the Red Sox a massive advantage in that department.
FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us -144 odds on the Red Sox this evening, good for 59.02% implied odds. My model gives them a 61.76% chance of winning, with a final score of 5.33-4.29. It's worth noting that the Cubs do have a slight bullpen advantage in this matchup, but I think the Red Sox take it to Mills early and cruise their way to victory.
Pick: Red Sox Money Line (-144) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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