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It's Wednesday, July 13th and we are back with another free betting article. We have a very full slate of 16 games because there is a double header between Seattle and Washington today. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, July 13h, 2022.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SFG -115
ARI: Zac Gallen| SFG: John Brebbia
This is a matchup where I believe the wrong team is favored. Arizona has Zac Gallen on the mound today. He has a 3.78 SIERA, 3.93 xFIP, and a 16.1% K-BB%. For the Giants, John Brebbia is on the hill. He has a 3.62 xFIP, a 4.03 xFIP, and a 15.5% K-BB%. But here's the thing: Brebbia is just going to be an opener and this is looking like a bullpen game for the Giants. The Giants have one of the worst bullpens with a 4.14 xFIP, and a 4.22 ERA. So after one inning of an even matchup, the remaining four-five innings is Zac Gallen vs. the Giants bullpen. I'd take Zac Gallen over the Giants bullpen any day. I like the first five innings Moneyline the best, but the full game Moneyline can be considered as well.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline F5 (+130), BetRivers Sportsbook 0.5 units; Diamondbacks Moneyline (+110), Caesar's/PointsBet Sportsbook, 0.5 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIN -120
MIL: Aaron Ashby| MIN: Joe Ryan
In Minnesota, Aaron Ashby and Joe Ryan face off this afternoon. Aaron Ashby has 3.36 SIERA, a 3.10 xFIP, and a 4.52 ERA. Joe Ryan has a 4.29 SIERA, 4.70 xFIP, and a 3.09 ERA. Ryan's peripherals are worse than his actual stats, while Ashby is the reverse. So which do we go with? Typically I tend to lean toward regression to the peripheral stats. That does not mean I believe Ashby will have an ERA in the low 3.00s by the end of the year nor do I think Ryan ends the season with an ERA in the high 4.00s, but I would expect their ERAs to trend in those directions. Ashby is the better pitcher.
These bullpens are pretty evenly matched. Milwaukee's bullpen ERA is 3.56 with a 3.40 SIERA, and 3.64 xFIP. Minnesota's bullpen ERA is 3.74 with a 3.49 SIERA, and 3.77 xFIP. I'd say their bullpens are a toss-up.
Offensively, Milwaukee is 15th in OBP, 5th in ISO, and 10th in runs scored. Minnesota is 6th in OBP, 7th in ISO, and tied for 8th in runs scored with Saint Louis. Outside of Minnesota getting on base more consistently than Milwaukee, these offenses are the same.
To me, this game is a coin flip. Ashby is the better pitcher but Ryan has been more effective than Ashby this season. Outside of the starters, both bullpens are decent and both offenses are good. If I can get a coin flip at +110 odds, I will do that, which means I am interested in the Milwaukee Moneyline. If both these teams get to -105 or something like that, then I am out. As long as there is a team that is better than +100, then I am interested in betting that side in this game.
Pick: Milwaukee Moneyline (+110), BetMGM Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: KC -125
DET: Tarik Skubal| KC: Brady Singer
Tarik Skubal and Brady Singer have very similar stats. Skubal has a 3.46 SIERA, 3.32 xFIP, and an 18.7% K-BB%. Singer has a 3.43 SIERA, 3.42 xFIP, and an 18.6% K-BB%. Skubal strikes out more frequently but walks batters more frequently. Singer is allowing 1.51 HR/9, which is the only issue with his pitching at the moment. On paper, these guys are very similar and are two young pitchers that are fun to watch despite both of them not playing on great teams.
Both of these teams have been playing better offensively the last two weeks. In that span Kansas City is tied with Detroit and 11th in Runs Scored, 5th in OBP, 16th in ISO. Detroit is 11th in Runs Scored also, 17th in OBP, and 27th in ISO. All season, Detroit has been one of the worst teams offensively, as has Kansas City, so being in the middle of the pack instead of at the bottom in runs scored is a big step up.
The only clear edge in this game is the bullpen. Kansas City has the worst bullpen SIERA (4.33) and the third-worst bullpen ERA (4.63). Detroit has the 4th best bullpen ERA (3.07) and the 16th best bullpen SIERA (3.68). The edge in this game is the bullpen for Detroit.
I could see the first five-six innings being close, within a run between the two pitchers, and with the bullpens, anything can happen but the edge late in the game is for Detroit. This is another coin-flip type of game where we can get a team at better than +100 odds, so I am going to go with Detroit here.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline (+106), FanDuel Sportsbook 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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