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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, July 22, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 43-51-2, -18.18 units
- Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
- Totals: 13-18-1, -5.43 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Phillies
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PHI -134
CHC: Justin Steele | PHI: Kyle Gibson
After going 1-1 last Friday, we have two more NRFIs on the slate today. I'll start off in Philadelphia as the Phillies and Cubs kick off their second half with a weekend series. The Cubs will send Justin Steele (3-6, 4.15 ERA) to the mound. Steele has been solid in the first inning this season, allowing a run in just two of six road starts and in just three of 17 starts overall. Steele has yet to start a game against the Phillies in his career, but I expect him to start off strong tonight.
We'll be backing Kyle Gibson (5-3, 4.35 ERA) in the top of the first tonight. Gibson had our backs last Friday in a matchup with potential Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, and we'll hope to get a similar opening frame performance out of him tonight. Gibson has allowed a first-inning tally in just two of nine road starts, as well as just three of 18 starts overall. While Gibson hasn't made a start against the Cubs this season, he did make one start against them last season, where he kept them off the board.
The Cubs have been held scoreless in the first inning in 61% of games overall, however, that number jumps to 69% (nice) when they're on the road. On the other hand, the Phillies have been held scoreless in the opening frame at a 66.7% clip at Citizens Bank Park, and at a 75% clip overall. Both teams have tallied a run in the first in just two of their last ten games, giving the NRFI implied odds of 53.67% according to my model. While this number seems low, FanDuel Sportsbook has the line at plus-money (48.54%), so we're getting good value here.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (+106) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Orioles
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BAL +140
NYY: Jameson Taillon | BAL: Tyler Wells
I'll be heading up to Baltimore for our second NRFI of the night, as the Yankees will look to turn the tide back in their favor after getting swept in a doubleheader yesterday in Houston. They'll look to do so by sending Jameson Taillon (10-2, 3.86 ERA) to the mound. Taillon has been solid to start games this season, by keeping opponents off the scoreboard in 12 of 18 starts, including seven of eight on the road. He's also kept Baltimore off the scoreboard in each of his three starts against them this season.
He'll take on Orioles starter Tyler Wells (7-5. 3.38 ERA), who comes into this start as another example of an Orioles pitcher playing up to his potential. He's tossed a scoreless first inning in five of seven starts in Camden Yards, as well as 14 of 18 starts overall. It'll be Wells's third start against the Bronx Bombers this season, and he's kept them off the board in the first inning in two of the three, including a perfect 1-0 at home.
As well as the Yankees have played this season, they've been held scoreless in 65.2% of their first innings overall. That number jumps slightly to 67.4% away from Yankee Stadium. They've been hot in the first lately though, scoring in five of their last ten. However, neither of those came yesterday and I can easily see them coming out sluggish after having to play two games right out of the All-Star Break. On the other hand, the Orioles have been held scoreless in a whopping 83.7% of first innings, including 85.7% at home. FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the first inning under at -120 (54.55%), while my model gives the under a 56.34% chance to hit.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-120) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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