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It is Monday today, the start of another week, and a 12-game MLB slate tonight starting at 6:40 pm Eastern Time. Sometimes Mondays can be very light in terms of MLB games, so it is nice to have a full slate tonight. This article will give a few of my favorite picks for this Monday, July 25th, 2022.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CHC -136
PIT: JT Brubaker| CHC: Adrian Sampson
JT Brubaker has a 4.02 ERA, a 4.12 SIERA, and a 13.5% K-BB%. Adrian Sampson has a 3.34 ERA, a 4.41 SIERA, and an 11.1% K-BB%. Sampson has the better ERA, meaning he has allowed fewer runs per inning in the past, but Brubaker has the better peripheral stats indicating he could outpitch Sampson in the long run by a small margin. There will not be much wind, but any wind there is will be blowing in, making it a better pitching environment than when the wind is blowing out.
This is a game that I could see being close early on. When the game turns over to the bullpen, the Cubs have the advantage there. The Cubs bullpen has a 4.24 ERA, which is the 8th-highest in baseball, but they have a 3.35 SIERA which is the 5th-lowest in baseball. The Pirates bullpen ERA is 4.69, the second-highest in baseball, while their 3.99 SIERA is the 5th-highest in baseball too.
In a situation like this, I want to bet on the first five innings lead because leaving things up to the bullpen seems like too large of a crapshoot. I also think 8.5 runs is a smidge too high and I like the under in that one as well. I have this game pegged for 8 runs on the dot. Because Pittsburgh has an advantage with their starting pitchers, I like them in the first five innings.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline F5 (+110), PointsBet Sportsbook, 0.5 units; UNDER 8.5 Runs (-115), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: KC -109
LAA: Noah Syndergaard| KC: Zack Greinke
This is a game that features two pitchers that are not the same anymore. Zack Greinke has a 4.64 ERA, a 4.87 SIERA, and a 8.1% K-BB%. Noah Syndergaard has a 4.00 ERA, a 4.24 SIERA, and 12.2% K-BB%. These are a far cry from these guys in their prime and while Syndergaard still has some years to put together another elite season, Greinke does not. Either way, they are playing in the great neutralizer which is a pitcher park in Kauffman Stadium.
This is a game that is strange to see Kansas City favored in, even if it's by a small margin. The Angels have the better starting pitcher, a better bullpen, and a better offense overall. The Royals bullpen has a 4.78 ERA with a 4.50 SIERA while the Angels bullpen has a 4.05 ERA with a 3.90 SIERA. Offensively, the Royals have a .308 OBP, .126 ISO, and a 92 wRC+ against RHP. The Angels have .299 OBP, a .164 ISO, and a 96 wRC+ against RHP. Both teams are below average but the Angels have the edge.
I like the Angels to win the game, and because these offenses are not great and in a pitcher's park, I like the under on this game too.
Pick: Angels Moneyline (-104), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units; UNDER 8 Runs (-106), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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