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What a great start to the second half! Postseason races are heating up, Juan Soto and other stars could be traded any second now. This is the time where the entertainment aspect of baseball is at an all-time high. So, grab some popcorn, and enjoy the show!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, July 26, 2022, for the 15-game 2:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. It's Tuesday, which means we have a full slate, leading to their many intriguing games to keep a close eye on. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Giants @ Diamondbacks
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SF -130
SF: Carlos Rodon | ARI: Tyler Gilbert
To say things have not gone as planned for the Giants of late would be a dramatic understatement. San Francisco has lost 20 of their past 31 games, and one season after winning 107 games, sit at exactly .500 by the end of July. If they're going to make a late postseason run, they need to end their skid now, though they're set up well for that to happen.
After all, any time you can send the second-most valuable starting pitcher in baseball to the mound, you're in a good spot. Carlos Rodon, by virtue of a 30.8% strikeout rate, 22.5% K-BB, and 3.18 skill interactive ERA (SIERA), has been a top-ten starting pitcher in practically every category; he's completely backed up his breakout year in 2021, and then some. Now, he gets to face a bottom-five offense in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+)? Sign me up. He's struck out at least seven hitters in four straight starts, and I'll gladly take the over today.
Meanwhile, for all of their deficiencies, the Giants are a top-ten offense in wRC+ for the season and have been even better (8th in wRC+) against lefties. With the way Austin Slater is performing, along with Darin Ruf and Wilmer Flores, it's easy to see why. Infamous for his no-hitter in his first career start last year, it's been a struggle for Diamondbacks starter Tyler Gilbert (5.21 SIERA, 7% K-BB, -0.3 fWAR) since, and his projections (5.50 projected ERA from THE BAT) aren't any kinder. The combination of not inducing ground balls (33%) or missing bats (14% K) is difficult to overcome, and it's hard to see that changing here.
With how colossal of a pitching advantage this is for the Giants, it's perplexing why they aren't laying a significantly higher price here. Yes, it's been a bumpy road for them, but trends can change at any time, and when you take previous biases out of the equation, this moneyline simply isn't reasonable. A slump has to be busted eventually and consider this the time that comes true for a team holding on for dear life.
Pick: San Francisco Moneyline (-130), WynnBet Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Reds
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIA -109
MIA: Pablo Lopez | CIN: Hunter Greene
Heading into this season, the Marlins knew they had a deep group of pitching talent to rely on, and thus, believed they had a window to capitalize. Hence, the free-agent acquisitions of Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler. Now they're six games below .500 and are without All-Star Jazz Chisholm Jr. for the season, creating a murky outlook for them ahead of this year's trade deadline. Even if it's just for moral support, they're in strong position to turn the tides for a second.
They may not have Sandy Alcantara on the mound, but Pablo Lopez certainly isn't a poor consolation prize! One of the more consistent pitchers recently, the 26-year-old has continued to perform well overall as a very steady #2 starter (3.73 SIERA, 16.4% K-BB), ranking above-average in ground ball rate (47.8%) and swinging-strike rate (13.5%). In fact, given the swinging-strike rate, it's fair to wonder if more strikeouts are on the horizon, especially against a Reds offense with the fourth-highest strikeout rate and fourth-worst wRC+.
Meanwhile, although Hunter Greene's peripheral numbers (3.74 SIERA) look fine, there are still plenty of reasons to be concerned. After all, the rookie righty may touch triple-digits with his fastball, but the poor shape of the pitch has allowed it to get hit quite hard (.401 xwOBA), making it one of the least-valuable pitches in all of baseball right now. Factor in command deficiencies and a fly-ball inducing approach, and the fit in Great American Ballpark is not ideal, to say the least. ZiPs projects him for a 5.00 ERA the rest of the year, which may turn out to be correct depending on the severity of his home run issues. Regardless, it's clear Miami has the advantage in terms of pitching, while they have, at worst, equivalent offenses (MIA 20th in wRC+, CIN 27th in wRC+). With all of that considered, why is this game being priced as an even matchup? It's strange, yet perhaps an inefficiency to take advantage of.
Pick: Miami Moneyline (-109), WynnBet Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Mets
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: NYM -115
NYY: Jordan Montgomery | NYM: Taijuan Walker
Could this be a preview of the World Series? Let's not get ahead ourselves. West coasters may not approve, but a Subway Series would be a pretty exciting way to cap off the 2022 season. For now, both teams have different motivations at hand; the Yankees are trying to secure the best record in the American League, while the Mets are looking to hold off the Braves in the NL East. Want to see playoff-esque baseball? That will be on display here.
When we look at the Yankees rotation, the attention is shifted towards Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino. Nevertheless, there is another pitcher for the Bronx Bombers that also deserves his fair share of admiration. That would be lefty Jordan Montgomery, who ranks 12th among qualified starting pitchers in called-strike + whiff rate (CSW%), a statistic that correlates very strongly with strikeout rate. If that isn't a strong indicator of an improved strikeout rate in the future, I don't know what is! Even if he's currently outperforming his peripherals right now, the most likely outcome is that his peripheral numbers simply improve, as you'd expect for a pitcher who misses bats (29.3% whiff), limits walks (4.6% BB), and induces ground balls (48.4% GB). Facing a Mets offense that has not only struggled as of late but ranks just 19th in wRC+ against lefties this season, he should be in line for another very successful outing here.
On the other hand, while the Mets are a bottom-ten offense in terms of hitting for power, the Yankees do that better than any other offense in baseball, also boasting the #1 wRC+. Although Taijuan Walker has limited runs (2.55 ERA) at a high level, he's also relying on a very low 5.1% home run/fly ball rate, and without strong K-BB numbers (13.6% K-BB), the final product is a 3.97 SIERA. Unlike Montgomery, there's no sign that his peripherals are destined to improve, meaning that negative ERA regression should be the expectation. Well, what better time for that to come to fruition than against the best lineup in baseball.
Wait, the better team with the pitching edge is a slight underdog here? Color me surprised. There's not one area in this game where the Mets stand out as having a clear advantage, which, theoretically, would indicate they shouldn't be favorites, right? In a game that will be highly viewed, make sure to be on the right side here!
Pick: Yankeee Moneyline (+108), UniBet Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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