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It's Wednesday, July 27th, 2022 and we are back with another MLB betting article with my favorite picks for this 14-game slate today. There are five games happening after 6:40 pm Eastern, and all of the rest of the games are day games today. Be ready to make your bets early and enjoy the slate!
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - San Diego Padres @ Detroit Tigers
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: SD -130
SD: Yu Darvish | DET: Tarik Skubal
This afternoon we have Yu Darvish and Tarik Skubal facing off in Detroit. Darvish may have the lower ERA (3.28 vs. 3.88), but these pitchers are very close in terms of peripheral stats.
Skubal has a 3.39 SIERA, 25.5% strikeout rate, and a 19.3% K-BB%. Darvish has a 3.62 SIERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, and an 18.7% K-BB%. This should be a great matchup to keep your eye on if you have access to a TV or streaming at 1:10 pm Eastern.
Against LHP, the Padres are 12th in OBP, 21st in SLG, 24th in ISO, and 17th in wRC+. This is an average to below average offense against left-handed pitchers. Against RHP, the Tigers are abysmal. They are 29th in OBP, 30th in SLG, 30th in ISO, and 30th in wRC+, with a wRC+ of 67 (not a typo!).
The Tigers have a good starting pitcher on the mound and they do have a good bullpen pitching behind them with Michael Fulmer back and Gregory Soto having a good season.
The Tigers have the 4th-best bullpen ERA (3.09) and the Padres are right in the middle of the league with the 15th-best bullpen ERA (3.88). The other side of that coin is the Tigers bullpen xFIP is bad, 18th, at 4.05.
Even though I think this game is low scoring while the starters are in, seven runs are pretty low. I like the over in the game and I like San Diego to win; Detroit is not a good team and they are not as juiced up. Detroit's bullpen has been performing but they are due for regression.
Pick: Padres Moneyline (-130), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units; OVER 7.0 Runs (-115), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CIN -145
MIA: Braxton Garrett| CIN: Luis Castillo
Because my first set of picks was a day game, I figured I'd do the next pick with a night game. In Cincinnati, we have Luis Castillo taking the mound for potentially the last time as a Cincinnati Red, as the trade deadline is next week.
Castillo is heavily rumored to be traded as he is having a solid season and the Reds are going nowhere. Anyhow, this pitching matchup may actually favor the Miami Marlins here.
Braxton Garrett has a 3.42 ERA, a 3.50 SIERA, a 24% strikeout rate, and an 18.4% K-BB%. Luis Castillo has the lower 2.77 ERA, but a 3.62 SIERA, a 25.5% strikeout rate, and a 17.1% K-BB%. While both of these pitchers are solid, Garrett has the edge on Castillo in SIERA and K-BB% as he walks less than Castillo does.
Against RHP for Miami compared to against LHP for Cincinnati is as follows: OBP (17th - Miami vs. 14th - Cincinnati), SLG (16th vs. 20th for Cincinnati), ISO (19th vs. 20th), and wRC+ (12th vs. 21st). Both teams may not do much scoring while these starters are in but overall, Miami has a better offense than Cincinnati does, although it is close.
The bullpens are not even close. Cincinnati has the worst bullpen ERA in all of baseball with a 5.20 ERA, the worst xFIP at 4.57, and the 4th worst SIERA at 4.03. Miami has the 17th best bullpen ERA at 4.01, the tied for 11th best xFIP at 3.78, and the 12th-best SIERA at 3.55. This starting pitcher matchup may be a coin flip but the edge pitching-wise will be towards Miami later in the game.
With a slight edge in starting pitching, a slight edge with batting and a larger edge will the bullpens, I like Miami to win this game tonight despite them being the underdog.
Because this game is being played in Cincinnati, balls just leave the park there that doesn't leave most other ballparks and because the Reds' bullpen is so bad, I think this game ends up going over 8 runs as well.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+130), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units; OVER 8 Runs (-108), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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