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With Andrew Benintendi on the move, we officially have our first major trade of the 2022 MLB season! Over the next week, we are going to see the landscape of baseball change tremendously, but for now, all we can do is take it one day at a time. Live in the moment, as they say.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, July 28, 2022, for the 10-game 12:35 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. We have a limited slate, particularly early on, though that doesn't mean you won't be entertained! What games should you keep an eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners @ Astros
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: HOU -143
SEA: Logan Gilbert | HOU: Jose Urquidy
Could the AL West become a tight race down the stretch? Considering the Astros are still ten games ahead of the Mariners, that's unlikely to happen. That being said, Seattle just gained three games on Houston with them sweeping the Rangers and the latter being swept by Oakland, and with a productive four-game series here, could definitely make things very interesting in a hurry.
Speaking of the Mariners, no team has a better record than them (16-4) over the past 20 days, allowing them to go from looking one of the season's main disappointments to on the verge of breaking their 20-year postseason drought. Meanwhile, it certainly isn't a fluke; Seattle ranks in the top ten in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) and has allowed the fifth-fewest earned runs per nine innings (3.58). That's a strong combination, and only better when considering Logan Gilbert is on the mound.
Sure, perhaps the 25-year-old won't maintain his current 2.77 ERA. Still, he's a top-30 pitcher in Fangraphs wins above replacement (2.3 fWAR) and K-BB (17.1%). He's re-shaped his three off-speed pitches to complement his fastball better, and so far, the results have been promising.
Meanwhile, although the Astros have gotten strong results from their rotation. Jose Urquidy hasn't been quite as consistent as perhaps they'd hope for. Most of his main indicators (13% K-BB, 4.37 skill interactive ERA/SIERA) rank below-average for pitchers, while he also has a decorated home run problem (projected 1.58 HR/9 from Steamer). He's struggling to miss bats (9.9% swinging-strike rate), and, for what it's worth, has struggled mightily against Seattle in three starts against them this season (all starts have a SIERA over 5.00). That's a very minuscule sample, though, at the same time, may also be a sign that they simply see him well.
Regardless, given how well the Mariners are playing right now, it's hard to go against them, especially when they're an underdog with the pitching advantage. It's been a special run so far in the Emerald City, and don't expect it to end today.
Pick: Seattle Moneyline (+128), WynnBet Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Pirates
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: PHI -189
PHI: Zack Wheeler | PIT: Zach Thompson
Two Pennsylvania teams, two pitchers with the same name, what more symmetry do we need here? Ironically, when it comes to competitive expectations, these two teams couldn't be any more different. Expect that to show here.
As things stand right now, the Phillies are just a half-game out of the postseason. In terms of the win-loss record (53-44), they actually rank 8th in all of baseball. The Pirates? Dead least with a 34-64 expected record. Let's be very clear; the gap between these two teams is remarkably wide.
Few teams hit for as much power as Philadelphia (7th in isolated power), which could be very problematic for Pirates starter Zach Thompson, who has struggled with the long ball this season and has been an exactly replacement level pitcher in 16 starts this season. In fact, among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched, Thompson is seventh-worst in SIERA (4.90), fifth-worst in K-BB (5.7%), and third-worst in FIP (5.31). If there was a time for the Phillies to have the type of offensive outburst they're capable of, it doesn't get much better than this for them.
On the other end, in Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia gets to rely on one of the top pitchers in baseball. Last year's runner-up in the NL Cy Young award voting started the season slow after dealing with a shoulder injury, but after re-gaining his velocity on May 4th against the Rangers, his production (2.93 SIERA, 23.9% K-BB) is right up there with the game's elite pitchers.
The Pirates struggle mightily (bottom-ten in runs above average) against four-seam fastballs, sinkers, and sliders, which, of course, just happen to be Wheeler's top-three featured pitches. For an offense with the third-worst wRC+ in baseball, that's an issue. Then, you factor in the notable bullpen edge the Phillies have, in addition to the length Wheeler will provide them compared to Thompson, and it's hard to find one specific area where you can point to the Pirates and feel any sort of confidence they come away with an upset here. Sometimes, the obvious pick is the best, and hopefully, things aren't too good to be true here; I'm sure the Phillies won't find a way to make this harder than it needs to be, right?
Pick: Philadelphia Run Line (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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