Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (7/3/22)

Happy Sunday and happy July 4th, RotoBallers! The weekend is finally here. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, July 3, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.

Featured Promo: Want a free RotoBaller Premium Pass? Check out these sports betting promo offers from the top sportsbooks! All new sign-ups get a free bonus offer on their first deposit, and a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Sign Up Now!

 

LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks

• Season to Date: 38-46-2, -16.79 units
• Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
• Totals: 8-13-1, -4.04 units
• Props: 1-0 +1.70 units

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Royals @ Tigers

O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: DET -136

KC: Brady Singer | DET: Tarik Skubal

A tough, unlucky day yesterday, going 0-2 on the plays in the article but fortunately hitting out NRFI in the Orioles-Twins game. I'll be taking two NRFIs today, starting with the Royals and Tigers game out in Detroit. It'll be a fun pitching matchup with two quality young arms as Brady Singer (3-3, 4.33 ERA) takes on Tarik Skubal (5-6, 3.75 ERA). 

Brady Singer has been very good in the first inning of games this season, holding opposing offenses scoreless in two of three road starts, and seven of eight starts overall. He projects well today, grading out to a 41.16 rating. On the other hand, Tarik Skubal has held opponents scoreless in five of seven home starts, and 11 of 15 starts overall. He grades out even better than Singer, with a 43.79 rating.

Neither offense has produced in the first inning often this season, with the Royals scoring in the first just 28% of the time on the road and just 27% overall. The Tigers score in the first just 30% of the time at home and 20% of the time overall. Given these numbers, my model projects the NRFI a 63.39% chance of winning. FanDuel is offering us -156, or 60.94% implied odds. We're getting good value here, and I'm a huge fan of NRFIs on getaway days.

Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-156) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

All new sign-ups also get a free year of RotoBaller's all sports Premium Pass ($450 value)!

 

---

 

Featured Promo

Offer is only valid for new users

All new sportsbook sign-ups get a free year of RotoBaller Premium access ($450 value)!

1. Just sign up for a new account
2. Make a minimum deposit of $20 and place any bet
3. Be sure to claim your bonus offer from the sportsbook
4. Email us at info@rotoballer.com with your new account details
5. Boom - that's it! We'll email you with your year-long RotoBaller Premium Pass

CLAIM NOW!

 

---

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Giants 

O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SF -116

CWS: Lucas Giolito | SF: John Brebbia

I'll go out to The Bay for the second NRFI of the day. The White Sox will be sending Lucas Giolito (4-4, 5.19 ERA) to the mound. Giolito hasn't been very trustworthy this season, and grades out to just a 23.62 rating. However, he's been excellent at keeping offenses off the board in the opening frame, particularly on the road, coming into this one allowing a run in just one of eight starts.

On the other hand, the Giants will be sending an opener to the mound in the form of John Brebbia. Brebbia had opened one game this season, a month ago to the day against the Marlins. He kept Miami off the board, surrendering one hit while allowing one run. As odd as it sounds, I'm more confident with Brebbia keeping the White Sox off the board than would be if it was the Marlins. The White Sox have been horrid this season against right-handed pitching, and haven't scored in the first inning in any of their last ten games.

Beyond just their last ten games, the White Sox have scored in the first inning in just 26% of their road games and 23% in all of the games while the Giants have tallied a first-inning run in 23% of home games and 24% of games overall. Given the data, my model gives the first inning under 68.44% implied odds, much better than FanDuel's 60% implied odds (-150). I'll run with the value here and hope the getaway day isn't a trend-breaker.

Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-150) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

 

Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis