Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (7/4/22)

Fourth of July, a day that is synonymous with baseball to me from when I was a kid into now my adult years. Perhaps you want to watch some games and throw down a couple of bets to sweat the action? In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, July 4, 2022. 

This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer. 

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Brewers

O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIL -145
CHC: Justin Steele| MIL: Eric Lauer

In this game, I like the Chicago Cubs. Justin Steele has a 4.16 SIERA while Eric Lauer has a 3.85 SIERA. These pitchers are pretty close skill-wise. Chicago is 14th runs score, Milwaukee is 9th. Chicago has the third-best OBP in the league while Milwaukee has the fifth-best ISO in the league. One team scores their runs by getting on base often while the other team scores most of their runs off of power hitting. Justin Steele is only allowing 0.65 HR/9 and doing a great job of limiting power. When there are two average pitchers going, in a hitters park, I will go with the underdog if they are juiced up.

Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+130), DraftKings Sportsbook 0.5 units

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ White Sox

O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CHW -122
MIN: Dylan Bundy| CHW: Johnny Cueto

Tonight we have Dylan Bundy and Johnny Cueto facing off on the Southside. On paper, Cueto is the better pitcher. He has a 3.99 SIERA while Bundy's is 4.40. I view these pitchers much closer together. Bundy has a 12.2% K-BB% while Cueto's is 14.6%. Bundy allows 1.38 HR/9 while Cueto allows 1.33 HR/9. I look at this game similar to the one above, except these pitchers to me are below average. Two below average pitchers, in a good hitting environment could mean a lot of runs scored. Minnesota is 12th in runs scored, 8th in ISO, and 8th in OBP. Chicago is in the bottom third of the league in each of those categories. If I am going to back a team in a high scoring game, I am going to back the better offense.

Pick: Twins Moneyline (+110), FanDuel Sportsbook 0.5 units

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!

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