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What a week of baseball this has been so far! The midwest gave us terrific matchups between the Twins and White Sox, as well as the Cubs and Brewers – competitive, down-to-the-wire games with a lot of surprises along the way. Postseason and award races are heating up, the Futures Game roster is being announced; this is the best time of the year!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, July 7th, 2022, for the 13-game 2:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Since there is a doubleheader, we have slightly more action than normal, though the value appears to be concentrated on a few games. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Reds
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CIN -115
PIT: Roansy Contreras | CIN: Mike Minor
Considering these are the two bottom teams in the NL Central with a combined record of 61-101, this wouldn't appear to be the most exciting matchup on paper. Hey, at the end of the day, any doubleheader is fun!
These two teams are nearly identical when it comes to weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), outs above average (OAA), and bullpen skill interactive ERA (SIERA), meaning that the edge in this game ultimately comes down to the starting pitching. To that end, it's hard not to be intrigued with Pittsburgh here.
It hasn't been all sunshine and rainbows for Pirates starter Roansy Contreras since being called back up to the majors in late May, but he still combines the ability to miss bats (12.3%) with the success in terms of generating called strikes (17.2%), which is a strong combination. According to Eno Sarris' predictive stuff+ model, which is incredibly useful for projecting pitcher performance in small sample sizes, Contreras (111.6) rates out well above that number, while his 101.2 pitching+ rating puts him right in line with the likes of Kyle Wright, Sean Manaea, Tony Gonsolin, and other very talented pitchers. Long story short; it's difficult to rely on performance metrics at the moment given his relatively small sample size, so we'll take a chance on the former top prospect becoming the pitcher he has been expected to develop into.
On the other side, it's been rough going for starter Mike Minor in his first season with the Reds. First off, he was delayed due to injury, and since coming back, all of the key underlying metrics (9.8% K-BB, 4.88 SIERA) are concerning. ZiPs projections go as far as to project him with a 5.18 ERA, along with a 2.06 HR/9; he's a fly-ball pitcher who allows a lot of contact, which is a poor combination at arguably the most hitter-friendly ballpark, sans Coors Field.
With these teams being practically the same, it all comes down to the pitching. In that case, would you rather bet on a top prospect with an arsenal that rates out extremely strong, or a 34-year-old pitcher who has been a below replacement-level pitcher this year? In a game that is being priced as 50/50, I certainly advise leaning with the former. It'll be a long day for both teams, but for at least for game #1, the Jolly Roger shall be raised.
Pick: Pittsburgh ML (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Red Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYY -156
NYY: Gerrit Cole | BOS: Josh Winckowski
Is Yankees-Red Sox the best rivalry in baseball? I'm sure West Coasters (Dodgers/Giants) and Midwesterners (Cardinals/Cubs) would have something to say about that, but it's always very special when these two teams face off. Even better, for a second straight year, both teams are postseason teams; these are going to be very emotional, hard-fought games.
For the Yankees, this couldn't be set up much better for them. Why? They get to start this series with their ace on the mound. I mean, there's not much else to add about Gerrit Cole, who has continued to be dominant this season:
- SIERA (2.92): 4th
- K-BB (24.5%): 4th
- Called-Strike + Whiff Rate (31.1%): 7th
- Pitching+ (111.5): 2nd
- Stuff+ (126.5): 3rd
Say what you want about last year's "sticky stuff" controversy; Cole is almost certainly a top-three pitcher in baseball. A combination of the Yankees, who rank first in run differential, combined with the prowess of Cole, is the best team in baseball. Really, I'm not sure what else needs to be said other than that.
The Red Sox have to be thrilled with the performance of 24-year-old Josh Winckowski (3.97 SIERA) over the first five starts of his career. At the same time, those games have come against the Orioles, A's, Tigers, Guardians, and Cubs; all below-average offenses in terms of runs scored. As someone who isn't going to miss bats (8.2% swinging-strike rate) as a sinker-baller, he has been very reliant on his ability to induce ground balls (56.3%), but he now faces an offense with the seventh-lowest ground-ball rate in baseball. If there is an offense where not inducing whiffs is an issue, it's a team that ranks second in baseball in hard-hit rate and first in barrel rate; this may not be an ideal matchup for the young righty.
With a clear bullpen and offense advantage, the Yankees would be in a good spot here before counting for the massive starting pitching gap here. Ultimately, there are two ways to capitalize on this. Should you want more of a sure thing, their current money line at (-156) seems to be quite underpriced. However, if you want some risk, their run line at (+105) may be more up your alley, with a great potential pay-off. Which bet you choose (or if you bet at all) is definitely a personal decision, and you can't go wrong either way. Regardless, the Bronx Bombers appear set to start this series on the right foot.
Pick (Option A): New York ML (-156), WynnBet Sportsbook
Pick (Option B): New York Run Line (+105), Sports Illustrated Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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