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Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! The weekend is finally here. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, July 9, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 40-48-2, -17.49 units
- Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
- Totals: 10-15-1, -4.74 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CWS -162
DET: Garrett Hill | CWS: Johnny Cueto
We had some tough luck with our NRFIs yesterday, but we'll get right back to it today. I'll start off in Chicago, as the Tigers and White Sox continue on their series. After taking the first two of the four-game set, the Tigers will be sending rookie Garrett Hill (1-0, 1.50 ERA) to the mound for his second career start. Hill was awesome in his debut, tossing six innings of one-run ball, allowing two hits while striking out three. Most importantly, he kept the Guardians off the board in the first inning, and we're looking for him to do the same today.
While the Tigers are sending a rookie to the hill, the White Sox will be sending out veteran starter Johnny Cueto (2-4, 3.30 ERA). While Cueto has allowed a run in the first in two of his four home starts, those two starts are the only two out of nine total starts where he allowed a run in the opening frame. Getting through the top of the Tigers' order in the first hasn't been a tough ask this season, and I trust Cueto to get the job done.
The White Sox offense has been brutal against right-handed pitching this season, relative to expectations of course, and have struggled in the opening frame as well. They've scored in just eight of 31 home games and just 18 out of 81 games overall, including just one of their last ten games, that being last night. Conversely, the Tigers have scored in the first in just three of 36 games on the road and 17 of 82 games overall, including eight of their last ten. My model gives the first inning under a 66.17% chance of hitting, giving us excellent value compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's line of -115 (53.49%).
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-115) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Braves
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: ATL -250
WSH: Patrick Corbin | ATL: Kyle Wright
I'll head down to Atlanta for our second play of the day. While the Braves have been hot, the Nationals have been ice cold, coming into this one with the worst record in the NL. They fell to Atlanta 12-2 last night and will be asking veteran starter Patrick Corbin (4-10, 5.68 ERA) to the mound. While Corbin has been a tad unlucky this season given his 4.13 xFIP relative to his 5.68 ERA, it doesn't look like today will be the day for positive regression. In his last four starts against the Braves, he's allowed 21 earned runs in 18.2 innings, losing all of them. As a matter of fact, he's lost seven straight starts against the Braves coming into today.
The home team will send Kyle Wright (9-4, 2.91 ERA) to the hill today. Wright has been on a roll of late, carrying a 2.76 ERA over his last three starts, with the Braves winning all three. While his 3.43 xFIP shows potential regression, Wright is allowing just 26% hard contact on the season and is facing one of the worst lineups in baseball against right-handed pitching. He hasn't started against the Nationals since 2020, where he tossed six innings allowing four runs (three earned) in a 8-4 Atlanta win.
Obviously, I won't be taking the juice on Atlanta's money line unless I end up putting it in a money line parlay with another MLB team or a UFC fighter this evening. I'll be looking at the run line here, which FanDuel has at -118 (54.13%) as I'm typing this. My model gives the Braves a 56.22% chance of winning, with the projected final score of 5.88-3.86. If last night was any indication, the Braves are taking care of business this weekend, which means bad news for Washington.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (-118) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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