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Happy trade deadline day! Josh Hader, Trey Mancini, and Frankie Montas are on the move, and that's just the beginning! I mean, what's better than a whole day of refreshing Twitter and researching the unknown A-ball prospect your team just traded for? Not much!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, July 28, 2022, for the 16-game 4:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Even with such a heavy slate, there aren't as many clear value opportunities as you'd hope for, though it's still a day full of exciting action with a lot of key matchups. What games should you keep an eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Guardians
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: CLE -139
ARI: Zac Gallen | CLE: Triston McKenzie
There's nothing better than two teams with a bottom-five payroll! To be fair, there's a strong chance the Guardians are a postseason team, while the Diamondbacks have been much more competitive this season. Naturally, based on common sense, you'd expect the potential postseason team to come out on top, yet that may not be the case here.
After all, despite the gap in playoff odds, Cleveland and Arizona are only separated by five games with regards to their expected win-loss records (based on run differential). That's certainly not a sizable gap, especially if the Diamondbacks get the type of outing they're hoping for from Zac Gallen here. With a very vertical arsenal, Gallen has on his own been very productive, but there's always been the hope for added upside should he start to operate more north-south; he tends to locate his fastball down in the zone, which limits whiffs and plays right into the modern swing path. Fortunately, there are signs of that improving:
Even in a smaller sample size, there hasn't been any sort of volatility with regards to his fastball location as of late, and a five-start sample is enough to start to believe in a legitimate approach change here. Even as is, he's been very productive (3.70 skill interactive ERA/SIERA, 16.8% K-BB) for the Diamondbacks this season, and faces a Guardians offense that's a great matchup for him.
See, as someone who has had slight issues allowing barrels throughout his career, it's great news that Cleveland has the lowest barrel rate this year; they also rank in the bottom-ten in walk rate, meaning that they'll need to dink and dunk their way to offensive success. Against a top-five defense based on Fangraphs' defensive runs above average metric, that'll be a difficult task; it's also telling that the team in the bottom-ten in runs above average against fastballs, considering Gallen is historically a fastball-heavy (49.2%) pitcher.
For all of their deficiencies, the Diamondbacks actually rank in the top ten in isolated power (ISO) this season. For a pitcher in Triston McKenzie with noted home run issues (projected 1.54 HR/9 from ZiPs), that should be concerning for Cleveland. In actuality, Arizona has a slightly higher expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) than the Guardians, and with Gallen projected to allow about half a run less than McKenzie by ZiPs, has at least a small pitching edge here. For a team that is a decent underdog, that's notable. It's not a sexy pick, but, hey, all wins count the same!
Pick: Arizona Moneyline (+125), WynnBet Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Nationals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYM -294
NYM: Jacob deGrom | WSH: Cory Abbott
Folks, today is a good day.
After all, Jacob deGrom is back on the mound! It's been a long wait for the 34-year-old, who hasn't pitched since July of last season. Need I remind you how dominant he was last season?
- 2021: 1.74 SIERA (1st), 45.1% K (1st), 41.7% K-BB (1st)
*Rank Among SPs with 90 IP
In the entire history of the MLB, no pitcher in baseball has a lower FIP over 90 innings than deGrom (1.24) last season, while no pitcher has had a better strikeout rate or K-BB since those two metrics started being tracked on Fangraphs. It's easy to forget simply because we haven't seen him pitch in over a year, but this is someone coming off of arguably the best per-pitch season in baseball history. If your life depended on the outcome, there is no other pitcher that you should want on the mound.
Still, it can be risky to bank on a pitcher after a long lay-off. Yet, all signs are that he's been at peak velocity. At the end of the day, deGrom being slightly rusty is honestly equivalent to that of a pure ace. The Nationals rank sixth-worst in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) for the season, fourth-worst over the past 30 days, and who even knows if Juan Soto will be in the lineup Tuesday night. Meanwhile, they've struggled mightily against sliders (-32.3 runs above average, third-worst), deGrom's clear secondary pitch, and don't hit for any sort of power (.125 ISO) whatsoever. Yeah, you better take your chance with deGrom here.
Although the Mets have a productive offense this season, they don't hit for much power (bottom-ten in barrel rate). Nationals starter Cory Abbott has had his fair of struggles, but projections (4.27 projected ERA from Steamer, 4.33 projected ERA from THE BAT) still remain somewhat optimistic. Furthermore, if deGrom doesn't go long in this game, New York can support him with the third-best bullpen in terms of SIERA, meaning that runs will be at quite a premium for Washington here. That'd be fine if the total was closer to seven runs, but it sits at an inflated number here. How many more times are you going to get to bet an under for an 8.5 game total with Jacob deGrom on the mound? Almost certainly never again; if not now, when?
Pick: Mets Nationals Under 8.5 Runs (-110), Caesars Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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