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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, August 21, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 53-58-2, -17.36 units
- Sides: 30-33-1, -13.89 units
- Totals: 22-25-1, -5.17 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Reds @ Pirates
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PIT -120
CIN: Mike Minor | PIT: Zach Thompson
We finished 1-1 on Friday, getting a bit unlucky with Martin Perez allowing a two-out home run in a lefty/lefty matchup against Luis Arraez. We'll take a look at a first-inning under in a different series today though, as the Reds and Pirates close out their weekend series. The Reds will be sending Mike Minor (1-10, 6.31 ERA) to the mound. Minor's stats on the surface are absolutely awful, but Minor himself has been excellent in the first inning. He's allowed a first-inning run in just one of his 13 starts overall while being perfect in each of his five starts at Great American Ballpark.
Conversely, the Pirates will be sending Zach Thompson (3-9, 5.51 ERA) to the mound. While Thompson hasn't been much better than Minor, he hasn't had the same first-inning success. He's been solid, though, holding opponents scoreless in 12 of 19 starts overall including seven of 11 starts at home.
Anyone who's been on the first-inning under in this series has certainly been profitable since both have hit despite there being 20 runs scored in the first two games. Neither team has been too hot in the opening frame, with the Reds being held scoreless in roughly 82% of first-innings on the road, and in 76% of games overall, including nine of their last ten. On the other hand, the Pirates have scored in just 21% of the first innings at home and in just 19% of games overall, including eight of their last ten. FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the line at -115 this afternoon, while my model has the line at -177.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-115) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Dodgers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: LAD -168
MIA: Sandy Alcantara | LAD: Ryan Pepiot
I've often said that Sundays are for first-inning unders. We'll head out to the City of Angels for our second first-inning under of the day. The visiting Marlins will send heavy NL Cy Young favorite (-650) Sandy Alcantara (11-5, 1.92 ERA) to the mound. Unsurprisingly, Sandy has been awesome in the first inning, allowing a run in just four opening frames in 24 starts, including 10 of 11 at home. It'll be a tough ask to ask him to shut down the potent Dodgers offense, even for just an inning, but if anyone can get it done it's Sandy.
On the other hand, the Dodgers will be sending Ryan Pepiot (1-0, 4.26 ERA). Dave Roberts and the Dodgers have seemingly pressed all the right buttons this season, and Pepiot is just another cog in the machine while spot-starting and filling in for injured starters. He obviously doesn't have the overall pedigree that Sandy does, but he's been just as good in the first inning. Pepiot has held opponents scoreless in the opening frame in five of his six starts on the year, including a perfect three-for-three at home.
While the Dodgers have been the best team in baseball in the first inning this season, scoring in nearly 40% of their first innings at home and in roughly 38% of their first innings overall, they've been held scoreless in seven of their last ten and will now have to see Alcantara for the first time since July 8th, 2021, where Sandy kept them off the board in the opening frame. Conversely, the Marlins have been the worst team in baseball in the first inning, scoring in just 13% of them on the road and 16% overall. FanDuel Sportsbook has this line at -138 while my model has it at -189, so we're getting great value here.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-138) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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