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As we enter the end of August, postseason races are starting to heat up in a major way. The Mets and Braves continue to battle for the NL East, the AL Central is wide open, and both league's wildcard races are completely up for grabs; heck, even the Rays and Blue Jays are putting some pressure on the Yankees in the AL East. This truly is the best time of the year!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, August 22ndth, 2022, for the 16-game 2:20 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Headlined by a battle of New York teams and a Cardinals/Cubs double-header, this is an extremely exciting day of baseball. What games should you keep an eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ Dodgers
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: LAD -154
MIL: Corbin Burnes| LAD: Tony Gonsolin
Why are so many teams playing each other in consecutive weeks? The Nationals and Padres just finished their stretch of back-to-back weekend series in absolutely awkward fashion for both sides, and after splitting a series in Milwaukee last week, the Brewers and Dodgers are back at it again.
Speaking of last week, we tempted fate tremendously by indicating the Brewers as a favorable moneyline pick against a high-powered Dodgers team, and after that somehow ended up working out in extra innings, we're back at it again! I mean, when Corbin Burnes is on the mound for an underdog, how can you not be tempted?
Of all starting pitchers, only Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer have a lower projected ERA from THE BAT than Burnes, and for good reason. Among qualified pitchers, Milwaukee's ace ranks fourth in skill interactive ERA (SIERA) and K-BB (25.1%) and leads the league in those two statistics dating back to 2021. Talk about a starting pitcher that is as "blow-up proof" as it gets; he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 21 of 24 starts this season, which you'd expect for a pitcher with the rare combination of missing bats and limiting barrels. Yeah, he's pretty good at this baseball thing.
Furthermore, ranked 11th in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), the Brewers have been more than a competent offense this season, particularly when it comes to hitting for power (5th in isolated power/ISO) and drawing walks (tied-4th in BB%). Although Tony Gonsolin has the lowest ERA (2.12) in baseball, that's due to a substantial amount of batted-ball luck, including a .201 batting average on balls in play allowed (BABIP), 8.6% home run/fly ball rate, and 84.6% left-on-base rate.
Now, as a pitcher who induces a lot of weakly-hit fly balls, he's going to naturally be somewhat of an outlier in that regard, but not to the point where's beating his SIERA (3.72) by one-and-a-half runs. Ultimately, Milwaukee is the team with the pitcher projected to allow one whole earned run fewer per nine innings, which more than makes up for any sort of talent gap between these two teams. As such, this game would appear to be a coin flip, yet that's not what the betting markets see it as. Hey, there are certainly worse pitchers to install faith in.
Pick: Milwaukee Moneyline (+130), Caesars Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Orioles
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: CHW -141
CHW: Dylan Cease| BAL: Austin Voth
Talk about two teams who couldn't feel differently about their season has gone! Heading into the year, the White Sox were perceived as a World Series contender, while the Orioles finished as the worst team in baseball over the past two full seasons. So, naturally, Baltimore is the team who enters this game with the better record. Baseball, am I right?
Fortunately, the White Sox only find themselves three games out of the AL Central and are in a tremendous situation to diminish that gap. Why? Well, that's what happens when Dylan Cease is on the mound. I mean, this is a pitcher who had allowed one earned run or fewer in 14 starts before last week. Not only is the 26-year-old back to his usual tricks when it comes to missing bats (32.3% K, 2nd among qualified starters), but by virtue of subtly making his slider his most-used pitch at the expense of fastballs and changeups, he's also inducing less-favorable contact. Generally, the one "bugaboo" for him has been his walk rate (10.5% BB), yet he now faces a team that chases at the fourth-highest rate and is also in the bottom ten in walk rate. Expect this to be more of the same for one of the game's most tantalizing pitchers.
Meanwhile, the South Siders (11th in wRC+ over the past 30 days) have seen improved offensive contributions as of late, and it goes back to the production they're getting from key players during that time frame:
- Eloy Jimenez: 191 wRC+
- Jose Abreu: 131 wRC+
- AJ Pollock: 126 wRC+
- Gavin Sheets: 131 wRC+
Now, Jimenez and Abreu are certainly benefitting from batted-ball luck, yet their quality of contact has also been very strong as well. Heck, Luis Robert has only played ten games during that span; they're definitely a better team now than they were earlier in the season, even without Tim Anderson in the fold.
Orioles starter Austin Voth comes with a projected 4.95 ERA from ZiPs and has reached six innings just once this year. In other words, consider the gap in pitchers here massive, while it's still hard not to believe the White Sox are simply the better overall team. At (+115), the South Siders' run line also warrants a close look, but, either way, expect them to show why many were so confident in them coming into the season.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline (-141), WynnBet Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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