Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (8/27/22)

Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, August 27, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.

Featured Promo: Want a free RotoBaller Premium Pass? Check out these sports betting promo offers from the top sportsbooks! All new sign-ups get a free bonus offer on their first deposit, and a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Sign Up Now!

 

LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks

• Season to Date: 54-61-2, -19.64 units
• Sides: 30-33-1, -13.89 units
• Totals: 23-28-1, -7.45 units
• Props: 1-0 +1.70 units

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Marlins

O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIA +172

LAD: Dustin May | MIA: Sandy Alcantara

After going 1-1 yesterday, we'll look to turn the tide on this beautiful Saturday. While we ran two first-inning unders yesterday, we'll be looking at just one today. We'll head out to Miami where the visiting Dodgers will send Dustin May to the mound for his second start of the season. May tossed a scoreless first last Saturday against the Marlins, although he had to work through a bit of a jam to do so. He walked two, but I'll attribute that to him getting back in the swing of things, as those were his only two walks across the five innings he pitched. 

The Marlins will be sending Sandy Alcantara to the mound. Alcantara has tossed a scoreless first inning in ten of 13 starts on the road, and in 20 of 25 starts overall. We backed him last Sunday against the Dodgers and it didn't work out due to a couple of "weak" hits through the infield. Nevertheless, I'll run it back with Sandy and the Marlins this evening. 

The Marlins are among the worst in the Majors at scoring runs in the first inning, scoring in just 19% of first innings at home, in just 15% of first innings overall, and in just one of their last ten. The Dodgers remain one of the best offensive teams in the first, scoring in 37% of first innings on the road and in 40% of first innings overall, including five of their last ten. Despite this, my model has the first inning under at -173 while FanDuel Sportsbook has the line at just -156. 

Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-156) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

All new sign-ups also get a free year of RotoBaller's all sports Premium Pass ($450 value)!

 

---

 

Featured Promo

Offer is only valid for new users

All new sportsbook sign-ups get a free year of RotoBaller Premium access ($450 value)!

1. Just sign up for a new account
2. Make a minimum deposit of $20 and place any bet
3. Be sure to claim your bonus offer from the sportsbook
4. Email us at info@rotoballer.com with your new account details
5. Boom - that's it! We'll email you with your year-long RotoBaller Premium Pass

CLAIM NOW!

 

---

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Giants @ Twins

O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIN -142

SF: Alex Cobb | MIN: Sonny Gray

I have some other plays on my radar today, and I'll be looking out to Minnesota for a first-five money line. I'll be backing Alex Cobb (4-6, 3.99 ERA) and the Giants this afternoon. I've discussed Cobb in previous articles, specifically how he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this season. He's allowed just 27.8% hard contact on the season and brings in just a 2.88 xFIP. 

On the other hand, Sonny Gray (7-4, 3.10 ERA) will take the ball for Minnesota this evening. Gray has had quite a resurgence in Minnesota this season, and his ERA reflects that. He brings a 34% hard contact rate and a 3.53 xFIP into this start, and projects to a 3.75 xFIP and a 38.34% hard contact rate tonight. 

The Giants have a favorable matchup here according to my model, as they're projected to have a higher wOBA + ISO, hard contact rate, home run rate, and a lower strikeout rate. Cobb seemingly out projects Sonny Gray as well, giving the Giants the starting pitching advantage. The bullpens are rather even, but I'd trust Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez than the Giants' back-end of their bullpen, so I'll be sticking with the value on the first five. 

Pick: Giants F5 Money Line (+112) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis