Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (8/28/22)

Happy Sunday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!

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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, August 28, 2022.

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I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.

 

LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks

• Season to Date: 56-61-2, -17.88 units
• Sides: 31-33-1, -12.77 units
• Totals: 24-28-1, -6.81 units
• Props: 1-0 +1.70 units

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Marlins

O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIA +230

LAD: Julio Urias | MIA: Edward Cabrera

After going 2-0 yesterday, we're back at it again today with two more first-inning underplays. We'll go right back to the well in the Marlins and Dodgers series, as they begin game three of their four-game weekend set. The Dodgers will send Julio Urias to the mound. The southpaw has pitched extremely well in the first inning on the road this season, allowing a run in just two of 13 starts away from home. He's allowed a run in six of 24 first innings overall. 

The Marlins will be sending rookie Edward Cabrera to the mound. After the NL Cy Young favorite Sandy Alcantara tossed a complete game yesterday, the Dodgers will look to bounce back this afternoon. It'll be tough for them to do it in the first inning, though, as Cabrera has held opponents scoreless in six of seven starts overall, including both of his starts at home this season.  

Nothing much has changed on the offensive front, as the Marlins score in just 19% of the first innings at home, in just 15% of the first innings overall, and in just one of their last 10. Conversely, the Dodgers score in 37% of the first innings on the road, 39% of the first innings overall, and in six of their last 10. My model has the first inning under at -183 while FanDuel Sportsbook has the line at just -162. 

Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-162) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

 

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Astros

O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIN -142

BAL: Austin Voth | HOU: Justin Verlander

I mention this every Sunday, but with Sundays being so goofy with it being a getaway day for most teams, I like to stick with the quick and easy bets like first-inning unders. I'll look out to Houston for the second play of the day, where the Orioles will be sending Austin Voth to the mound. Voth has been a frequent flyer in these articles, given that he's allowed a first-inning run in just one of his 11 starts on the year, and has been perfect on the road in five starts.

On the other hand, the Astros will be sending Justin Verlander to the mound. It's actually quite amazing what Verlander's doing this season, coming off surgery at 39-years-old. To be fair, he is a -420 favorite (FanDuel Sportsbook) to win the Cy Young, but it's truly remarkable how he's bounced back after missing nearly two calendar years worth of baseball. Nevertheless, he's been pretty great in the first inning as well, allowing a run in just one of 23 starts overall. He's been perfect on his home turf, holding opponents scoreless in the opening frame in each of his 11 starts at Minute Maid Park. 

I targeted first-inning unders quite often early in the season, as they were one of the worst teams in baseball at getting off to a hot start. They've picked up the slack a bit but still score in just roughly 20% of the first innings on the road, and in just 21% of the first innings overall. The Astros have scored in roughly 32% of the first innings overall. Now, they are better at home (43%), but they haven't scored in the opening frame in either of the first two games of the series. We're getting exceptional value here, as my model has the first-inning under odds at -216, while FanDuel Sportsbook has the line at -125.

Pick: Giants F5 Money Line (-125) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!

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