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Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, August 6, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 47-54-2, -17.85 units
- Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
- Totals: 17-21-1, -5.1 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Pirates @ Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BAL -162
PIT: JT Brubaker | BAL: Austin Both
After going 2-0 yesterday, I'll look to a pair of first-inning unders to get us going today. I actually played the first-inning under in the Mitch Keller vs. Dean Kremer game last night, and I'm more than willing to hit it again today. The Pirates are sending JT Brubaker (2-9, 4.40 ERA) to the mound. Brubaker has been solid in the first inning this year, surrendering a run in just six of his 20 starts, including just four of 12 road starts.
The "new age" Orioles have been on quite a tear over the last month or so, squeaking out a 1-0 win against Pittsburgh last night. They'll be sending Austin Voth (1-1, 5.54 ERA) to the mound. Voth has just recently started going deeper into games and hasn't surpassed five innings pitched in a start all year. Despite the poor ERA, Voth has been perfect in the first inning, holding opponents scoreless in all seven games he's started, with four of those being in Baltimore.
Neither of these teams has scored much in the first, with the Pirates scoring in just 19% of opening frames on the road, as well as 19% overall. They've been shut out in the first inning in each of their last ten games. Conversely, the Orioles have scored in just 14% of home first innings and 17% of the first innings overall. It's worth noting they've scored in three of their last ten, but overall that won't stop me from playing this under. FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the under at just -106, while my model gives the under a 69.24% chance of hitting.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-106) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Mets
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: NYM -134
ATL: Max Fried | NYM: Max Scherzer
We'll head just up I-95 to Queens for our second first inning under of the day. In a battle of the aces, as well as a battle of the "Max's", the Mets and Braves will duke it out again, the fourth of five games in their weekend series. The Braves will send Max Fried (10-3, 2.58 ERA) to the mound. Fried has been perfect on the road across eight starts, and nearly perfect overall, surrendering a run in just two of 21 starts.
The Mets will send Max Scherzer (7-2, 2.13 ERA) to the hill this evening. While Fried has been perfect on the road this season, Scherzer has been perfect at home, holding opponents scoreless in the first inning across eight starts at Citi Field. He hasn't been too shabby overall either, allowing a first-inning run in just two of 14 starts.
While the Mets have been pretty solid at scoring in the opening frame at home (47%), that number drops to just 35% when you factor in all of their games. Conversely, the Braves have scored in 28% of their first innings on the road, as well as in 29% of games overall. Both teams have scored in just three of their last ten games. My model gives the first inning under a 62.84% chance of hitting, still giving us solid value despite the -160 price tag on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-160) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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