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How about those Mets? Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are fronting a rotation for a much deeper roster, and after taking four of five from the Braves, they're in the driver's seat to win the NL East. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are surging, the Orioles keep winning, and the Padres are at risk of not making the postseason at all. Simply put, this is quite an action-packed time for baseball.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, August 4th, 2022, for the 16-game 4:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Thanks to a double-header between the White Sox and Royals, we get an extra game today, as well as an earlier start than normal; don't worry, west coasters – the late-night slate is absolutely fantastic. What games should you keep an eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ A's
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: LAA -1182
LAA: Shohei Ohtani | OAK: James Kaprielian
I know I harped on this on Thursday, but I have to bring this point back up: how did the Angels get to this point? It's one thing to be a hopeful postseason contender that just misses out, but to enter Monday just five games ahead of the A's, who came into this season with no intention of competing at all, is simply unacceptable. Regardless of Mike Trout's injury status, there are fundamental flaws within this organization that need to be addressed immediately, or Trout simply won't ever have the luxury of winning a postseason game in his entire career.
For now, though, the agenda for Angels fans is quite simple – accept the team's fate, and, most importantly, enjoy Shohei Ohtani. After all, the future status of the star two-way player's time in Anaheim is in doubt, but for now, he's certainly generating the entire spotlight for this team. Fortunately, he'll be center stage on Tuesday night as the starting pitcher and we should be in for a show.
While Ohtani is universally appreciated for accomplishing feats that no player has even been able to in the modern game, what gets lost is how dominant of a pitcher he has been. Let's take a look at where he ranks in key metrics among starting pitchers with at least 100 innings this season:
- Skill Interactive ERA (SIERA): 2.38 (1st)
- Strikeout Rate: 35.9% (1st)
- K-BB: 30.3% (1st)
I don't know about you, but being first in three major predictive categories when it comes to future pitcher success sounds good to me! He's only been better (1.75 SIERA in past seven starts) as of late, and there are many reasons point for this surge. For starters, he's throwing fewer fastballs in place of more sliders while he's still sitting multiple ticks higher with his fastball. Add in better command as well, and you get the definition of an ace. That'll work against an A's offense with the second-lowest weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) in baseball.
Yes, the Angels have been an absolutely anemic offense as of late. That being said, Oakland starter James Kaprielian, who has been a below-replacement level pitcher this year with very alarming peripherals (5.10 SIERA), has also had his fair share of struggles. Regardless of how you feel about the depth of the Angels as a whole, this pitching matchup is simply too lopsided to not expect a comfortable victory for the Halos here. Heck, even if Ohtani has to go full "Bugs Bunny" here, that would still be the case. It hasn't been an ideal season for the Angels, but consider this to be a bright spot for them. Now, let's be ready to copy and paste that last sentence for every one of Ohtani's remaining starts.
Pick: Angels Run Line (+105), Caesars Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Astros
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: HOU -179
TEX: Martin Perez | HOU: Jose Urquidy
Well, consider this a preview of the AL West! For what it's worth, the Mariners will face the Yankees, and will send Luis Castillo to make his first start in Seattle against Gerrit Cole – you should watch.
Yet, that isn't why we're were. Rather, we're turning our attention to the state of Texas, which will hopefully soon become a very evenly contested matchup. For now, the Astros have the upper hand, and it's easy to see why. After all, they have the fifth-best wRC+ in baseball, combining the ability to hit for power (fourth in isolated power/ISO) with the ability to draw walks (8th) and limit strikeouts (fourth-lowest). Altogether, there is no weakness in their lineup, especially after adding Trey Mancini and Christian Vasquez to the mix; they currently have the second-best projected lineup by THE BAT X, only trailing the Dodgers.
On one end, with a 2.47 ERA and an All-Star appearance, Martin Perez would appear to be performing like one of the top pitchers in baseball. On the other end, his overall peripherals (3.80 SIERA) don't support this ERA, as he's being boosted by a very low 6.9% home run/fly ball rate and a high 79.4% left-on-bae rate, both of which should stabilize eventually. What better chance for that to happen than him, a contact-inducing lefty pitcher, pitching in Minute Maid Park, which features the short porch in left field; for context, he's allowed eight home runs overall, but 12 would have been home runs in Houston. Regardless, a contact-inducing pitcher against a top-notch offense doesn't seem like an ideal combination.
Meanwhile, for all the Rangers' faults, they have scored the 12th-most runs per game this season, and also are a top-12 team when it comes to hitting for power. Although Houston has a dominant pitching staff, they haven't quite gotten ideal consistency from Jose Urquidy, who not only sports a 4.24 SIERA and a projected 4.38 ERA from Fangraphs Depth Charts projections but has a SIERA of 5.10 or higher in eight of his 20 starts this season. That's an alarming amount of volatility, and certainly highlights the chance of a blow-up outing. When you're a pitcher that doesn't strike many hitters out (19% K) nor induces ground balls (36.5%), that's going to happen, and it certainly could against a very viable lineup overall.
Meanwhile, the Rangers bullpen also ranks in the bottom ten in fWAR and SIERA, making runs even more likely to happen. When you have two pitchers that don't miss a lot of bats, the variance in terms of the number of runs scored increases dramatically. With that being the case for two productive offenses, 7.5 runs seems like an awfully low total. Ultimately, everything is bigger in Texas, no?
Pick: Rangers Astros Over 7.5 (-110), Sports Illustrated Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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