Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/6/22)

Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks, this time during the week! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, September 6th, 2022.

Featured Promo: Want a free RotoBaller Premium Pass? Check out these sports betting promo offers from the top sportsbooks! All new sign-ups get a free bonus offer on their first deposit, and a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Sign Up Now!

I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.

 

LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks

• Season to Date: 60-64-2, -17.63 units
• Sides: 31-33-1, -12.77 units
• Totals: 28-31-1, -6.56 units
• Props: 1-0 +1.70 units

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Phillies

O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: PHI -245

MIA: Jesus Luzardo | PHI: Aaron Nola

We were able to finish up our weekend strong going 2-0 on two first-inning unders on Sunday. We'll be going head down into the new week with another first-inning under play in Philadelphia. The Marlins will be sending southpaw Jesus Luzardo (3-6, 3.44 ERA) to the mound. Luzardo has been solid in the first inning over the course of the season, holding opponents scoreless in five of seven road starts as well as nine of 11 starts overall. 

Now, the Phillies did hurt us in the first inning under plays over the weekend, but I feel "safer" tonight with them sending Aaron Nola to the mound. Nola's thrown a scoreless opening frame in 11 of 13 starts at Citizens' Bank Park as well as in 22 of 26 starts overall. This includes two starts against the Marlins this season, one at home and one in Miami, allowing a run in neither of them. 

Offensively, the Marlins are the worst in the league in terms of scoring in the first inning. They've scored in just 12% of first innings on the road and in roughly 15% of first innings overall. On the other hand, the Phillies have scored in 35% of home games, but in just 28% of games overall. We're getting slight value here, as my model gives the under a true line of -161 while FanDuel has it at -150. 

Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-150) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

All new sign-ups also get a free year of RotoBaller's all sports Premium Pass ($450 value)!

 

---

 

Featured Promo

Offer is only valid for new users

All new sportsbook sign-ups get a free year of RotoBaller Premium access ($450 value)!

1. Just sign up for a new account
2. Make a minimum deposit of $20 and place any bet
3. Be sure to claim your bonus offer from the sportsbook
4. Email us at info@rotoballer.com with your new account details
5. Boom - that's it! We'll email you with your year-long RotoBaller Premium Pass

CLAIM NOW!

 

---

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Athletics

O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: OAK +190

ATL: Kyle Wright | OAK: Cole Irvin

I'll be heading out west to Oakland for our second play of the day. We won't be looking at a first inning under here, but rather a first-half play. I'll look to back the Braves behind Kyle Wright (17-5, 2.85 ERA) to the mound. Wright has pitched extremely well this season and despite his xFIP (3.26) showing potential regression, Wright should have no issue carving through an Athletics lineup that projects to a .370 wOBA + ISO and 22.83% hard-contact rate according to my model. 

The Athletics will be sending lefty Cole Irvin (7-11, 3.35 ERA) to the mound. Irvin has been a bright spot in a pretty ugly season out in Oakland, and I can't see I'm anticipating him shining tonight. His xFIP shows signs of regression (4.20), and projects to a 4.24 xFIP tonight against a Braves lineup that has a projected 36.74% hard-contact rate and a .547 wOBA + ISO, both among the highest on the slate.

It's clear that the Braves have a strong advantage in this matchup, from the pitcher to the lineup. I do trust the Braves' bullpen against the Athletics late in the ballgame, I'd rather back them to win in the first five innings rather than take the run line. With that, I'll back the solid value we're getting on FanDuel Sportsbook at -130.

Pick: Braves F5 Money Line (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Enjoy your Labor Day!

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis